RADIO
April showers have now given way to May flowers, (and warmth we hope), and the next edition of my weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. Trends feel more robust with a month's worth of data in the backpack. So let's dive into another edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
We have battled through several key injuries all over the diamond, but things are exciting right now on the bump due to recent promotions. Cleveland has a strong duo making their mark while the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Athletics, and Mariners have made notable call-ups as well. Now, let's get them to stick around!
These ranks are geared towards traditional 5x5 leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. However, it's still early so I'll try to loosely peg where I value injured arms amidst the fray. For now, let's dive into my top 101 SPs and be sure we're starting strong.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Logan Webb and Logan Gilbert both sport a SIERA over a run lower than their ERAs. They each have a K-BB% above 25% and walk rates below 4.5%, which largely explains the SIERA love. Yet, Webb’s 2.84 SIERA has a 4.10 ERA and Gilbert’s 3.08 SIERA is tied to the 4.23 ERA. Rude. Don’t overreact to the ugly 4’s and hold on.
-Nathan Eovaldi was due for better fortunes before his dream date with a weakened Yankee lineup. His vengeance on his old uniform was swift, as he scattered three hits across a complete-game shutout to lower his ERA from 5.20 to 3.93. That’s how quickly optics can turn on a pitcher so early in the season!
NATHAN EOVALDI'S CG SHO!
9.0 IP
0 R
3 H
8 K
0 BB
113 PitchesEovaldi retired the final 15 batters he faced.
— Jared Sandler (@JaredSandler) April 30, 2023
His rotten batted-ball luck obscured some fine pitching, as Eovaldi hadn’t posted an outing with a FIP below 3.20 on the year. His current FIP is 2.11, which ranks t-fourth with Gerrit Cole out of 75 qualified arms entering play on Tuesday.
Eovaldi has allowed just two barrels on 102 batted balls, yet we’re still getting his usual control (3.4% BB rate). The average launch angle against is a mere 4.3 degrees (10.7 in ‘22, 12.8 in ‘21). They won’t be CGSHO-style good, but we should see more like that versus the 10 hits/six earned in five frames against KC on April 12.
-Matt Strahm had* a 3.00 SIERA (I wrote this earlier on Tuesday), which ranks sixth (125 SP w/ min. 20 IP), right in between Webb and Gilbert. Isn’t that neat? I did not think Philadelphia would commit enough to this rotation experiment but it’s panning out. The southpaw has yet to work deeper than 5 ⅓ IP and manager Rob Thomson seemingly won’t budge on letting hitters see Strahm a third time. Unfortunately, he appears destined for the ‘pen once Ranger Suarez is healthy. This was reinforced by a rough go on Tuesday night!
-Jose Berrios had begun gaining momentum to wrap up April, allowing just three runs in a three-start span against the Rays, Astros, and White Sox. He’d allowed just 11 hits with an 18/2 K/BB ratio in that 19-inning window but Boston’s poor weather would dampen things.
The 28-year-old got bopped by a season-high 11 hits (two homers) and five runs at Fenway on Monday, raising his ERA to 5.29 through six starts. Of course, his 3.24 FIP and generally good peripherals still offer hope. He’s not walking many, his groundball rate is nearly 50%, his hard-hit rate is healthy, and his swinging strike rate is higher than ever.
Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens highlighted his awful luck with RISP and the lowly 56.4% strand rate backs that. Clemens also pointed out that perhaps Berrios is throwing too many first-pitch curves with traffic on the bases. It isn’t some watershed epiphany though, as he also notes that said curve isn’t responsible for loads of damage. It looks like brighter days should be ahead if Berrios’ current form holds and luck stabilizes.
-Brady Singer has struggled thus far in 2023, to put it lightly. I promise there is a reason for hope, but the glimmer took a hit with Sunday’s Minnesota start. After giving up 18 runs in a three-start stretch, Singer tweaked his slider grip and then dominated the Diamondbacks on April 25, holding them to one run over six frames with five strikeouts and zero walks.
Singer breaks down what changes he made to his slider, and why he did it, ahead of his quality start tonight: "We actually changed the whole thing." #Royals pic.twitter.com/AIaqegp9pe
— Bally Sports Kansas City (@BallySportsKC) April 26, 2023
His average slider velocity dropped from ~85 mph to 82.5 mph in his last two starts as he looks for more break. BrooksBaseball had the slider’s break around two inches prior to April 25, when it then jumped to 4.73. They marked it at 3.68 inches for April 30, so it’s clearly stepped up.
While Minny stumbled against the slider (only one hit, three strikeouts), they destroyed his sinker (four hits on five BBEs). You’re not trusting Singer just yet, but monitor how his tinkering goes. Plus, he draws a home start against the Athletics next in a big test.
-Max Fried is the only pitcher yet to surrender a barrel out of those with over 50 batted-ball events against in 2023. But the lower count due to his injury helps, as others with more BBEs but just two barrels against are the aforementioned Eovaldi (102 BBEs), Marcus Stroman (92), and Zack Wheeler (85). Wheeler also leads with the lowest average exit velocity on flies/liners at 88.3 mph. Go figure! I’ll also highlight that Johan Oviedo has only allowed three barrels on 104 BBEs.
-Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, Mason Miller, Bryce Miller, Gavin Stone, and Brandon Pfaadt are all worth your time in 12-team formats. We've spoken about them here and there but now all six are in the majors. The long-term role of most youngsters is uncertain so I'm not being terribly aggressive. You gamble on the upside and see how much the organizations are willing to commit for now.
Bibee, Mason Miller, and Pfaadt feel the most likely to stick around, though Miller has limited innings in the tank after injuries limited his minor-league stints. Yet another reason I'm glad they didn't push him in the no-hit bid, as fun as it might've been. Roster as many as you can!
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 6
| Tier | Name | Rank | $ |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 1 | $45.0 |
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 2 | $44.0 |
| 1 | Spencer Strider | 3 | $43.0 |
| 1 | Shane McClanahan | 4 | $42.0 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 5 | $41.0 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 6 | $41.0 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 7 | $39.0 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 8 | $39.0 |
| 2 | Zac Gallen | 9 | $37.0 |
| 2 | Kevin Gausman | 10 | $35.0 |
| 2 | Sandy Alcantara | 11 | $33.0 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | 12 | $33.0 |
| 3 | Julio Urias | 13 | $32.0 |
| 3 | Aaron Nola | 14 | $31.0 |
| 3 | Cristian Javier | 15 | $31.0 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 16 | $30.0 |
| 3 | Clayton Kershaw | 17 | $28.0 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 18 | $26.0 |
| 4 | Framber Valdez | 19 | $24.0 |
| 4 | Max Fried | 20 | $23.0 |
| 4 | Nestor Cortes Jr. | 21 | $23.0 |
| 4 | Jacob deGrom | 22 | $23.0 |
| 4 | Joe Musgrove | 23 | $22.0 |
| 4 | Shane Bieber | 24 | $22.0 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 25 | $21.0 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 26 | $20.0 |
| 4 | Joe Ryan | 27 | $20.0 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 28 | $20.0 |
| 4 | Alek Manoah | 29 | $20.0 |
| 4 | Hunter Greene | 30 | $19.0 |
| 4 | Pablo Lopez | 31 | $19.0 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 32 | $19.0 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 33 | $18.0 |
| 5 | Luis Severino | 34 | $17.0 |
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 35 | $17.0 |
| 5 | Carlos Rodon | 36 | $17.0 |
| 5 | Brandon Woodruff | 37 | $16.5 |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 38 | $16.0 |
| 5 | Kodai Senga | 39 | $15.5 |
| 5 | Chris Bassitt | 40 | $15.0 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 41 | $14.5 |
| 5 | Andrew Heaney | 42 | $14.5 |
| 6 | Nick Lodolo | 43 | $14.0 |
| 6 | Blake Snell | 44 | $14.0 |
| 6 | Dustin May | 45 | $14.0 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 46 | $13.5 |
| 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 47 | $13.0 |
| 6 | Charlie Morton | 48 | $13.0 |
| 6 | Kyle Wright | 49 | $11.0 |
| 6 | Marcus Stroman | 50 | $11.0 |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | 51 | $10.5 |
| 6 | Patrick Sandoval | 52 | $10.5 |
| 7 | Grayson Rodriguez | 53 | $10.0 |
| 7 | Jon Gray | 54 | $10.0 |
| 7 | Alex Cobb | 55 | $10.0 |
| 7 | Justin Steele | 56 | $9.5 |
| 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 57 | $9.0 |
| 7 | Triston McKenzie | 58 | $8.5 |
| 7 | Luis Garcia | 59 | $8.0 |
| 7 | Hunter Brown | 60 | $8.0 |
| 7 | Tyler Glasnow | 61 | $8.0 |
| 7 | Lucas Giolito | 62 | $8.0 |
| 7 | Tanner Bibee | 63 | $7.0 |
| 7 | Logan Allen | 64 | $6.0 |
| 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 65 | $6.0 |
| 7 | Mason Miller | 66 | $6.0 |
| 8 | Tony Gonsolin | 67 | $5.5 |
| 8 | Matt Strahm | 68 | $5.0 |
| 8 | Sean Manaea | 69 | $5.0 |
| 8 | Gavin Stone | 70 | $5.0 |
| 8 | Johan Oviedo | 71 | $4.5 |
| 8 | Graham Ashcraft | 72 | $4.5 |
| 8 | Merrill Kelly | 73 | $4.5 |
| 8 | Tyler Anderson | 74 | $4.5 |
| 8 | Zach Eflin | 75 | $4.5 |
| 8 | Bryce Miller | 76 | $4.0 |
| 8 | Brandon Pfaadt | 77 | $4.0 |
| 8 | Bryce Elder | 78 | $3.5 |
| 8 | Taj Bradley | 79 | $3.5 |
| 8 | Anthony DeSclafani | 80 | $3.5 |
| 8 | Drew Smyly | 81 | $3.0 |
| 8 | Jose Berrios | 82 | $3.0 |
| 8 | Brady Singer | 83 | $3.0 |
| 9 | Jose Urquidy | 84 | $2.5 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | 85 | $2.5 |
| 9 | Martin Perez | 86 | $2.5 |
| 9 | Edward Cabrera | 87 | $2.5 |
| 9 | Roansy Contreras | 88 | $2.5 |
| 9 | Miles Mikolas | 89 | $2.0 |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | 90 | $2.0 |
| 9 | Josiah Gray | 91 | $2.0 |
| 9 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 92 | $2.0 |
| 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | 93 | $2.0 |
| 9 | MacKenzie Gore | 94 | $1.5 |
| 9 | Kyle Gibson | 95 | $1.5 |
| 9 | Matthew Boyd | 96 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Taijuan Walker | 97 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Mitch Keller | 98 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Domingo German | 99 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Michael Soroka | 100 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Hayden Wesneski | 101 | $1.0 |
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