Top 101 Starting Pitchers: Rest-Of-Season Rankings for Fantasy Baseball (Week 3)

2 years ago by Nick Mariano

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2. Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 3

What is up, pitcher people? It is that grand time of the week when I get to check in with my weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown as we're all scurrying about pretending like we can play it cool and not overreact. Let's dive into the second 2023 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!

I'm still not going to frame this with a heaping of small-sample data for 2023. Obviously, that is a big driver for me as an input but I want it to feel robust before I just slap a bunch of numbers next to the names for you to digest. We'll start with some analysis and then hit the table.

These ranks are geared towards traditional 5x5 leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. However, it's still early so I'll try to loosely peg where I value injured arms amidst the fray. For now, let's dive into my top 101 SPs and be sure we're starting strong.

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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis

Another week into the season means slightly more stabilization, but there are still plenty of new velocities, repertoires, and batted-ball data nuisances to chew on.

Quick hits before some longer thoughts:

*Corbin Burnes looked good on Tuesday, providing a much-needed confidence booster. Aaron Nola did not and he’ll take three sketchy outings into Great American Ball Park on April 16. Julio Urias cares not for sabermetrics and continues to post exceptional stats. Give Kyle Wright (and almost anyone coming off the IL) at least one start to shake off the rust.

-Going into Tuesday, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs led all starters in xwOBA at .267 and .195, respectively. We all know it’s only been two starts against meager competition but also…wow. Do a dance if you leaned into Tampa Bay’s optimization of their arsenals and consider selling high if you’re in a league with overreactions.

-Nick Lodolo comes next at .209 on that xwOBA leaderboard with a .165 xBA behind the .217 batting average allowed across 51 plate appearances. He followed up a strong first start (5.0 IP, 2.0 ER, 9/2 K/BB) with seven innings of shutout ball against Philadelphia. He struck out 12 (!) with only two walks against the defending NL champs. Two starts in hitter-friendly parks, two solid showings. He looks more consistent out of the gate than Hunter Greene.

-Pablo Lopez logged a season-high 10 strikeouts after ringing up eight in each of his first two trips to the bump in ‘23. The 27-year-old looks comfortable in a Minnesota uniform, allowing one earned run over 20 innings of work thus far. No, the .184 BABIP won’t last but also his sweeper is a guillotine pitch out there. Some guys take a while to find reliable command with it but he’s shown nothing but control so far. We all love to see it.

Another great outing for Pablo Lopez.

7.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, BB, 10 K
37% Whiff, 37% CSW

All five offerings had a whiff rate of 27% of higher and a CSW of 31% or higher.

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) April 12, 2023

-Chris Bassitt is flashing warning signs early. He got hit hard by St. Louis in his first start, yielding nine earned on four home runs with no strikeouts over 3 ⅓ IP. Then he survived five walks over six frames against the Angels, escaping with two earned runs (three total) and the win. Having identical 11% rates for HR%, K%, and BB% is not ideal!

His velocity started lower last year as well before climbing to the 93-94 mph range by May. Except he posted a 26/7 K/BB with a 2.25 ERA in 24 innings last April. The command simply isn’t there. I think he’ll find his mechanics again but if he can’t handle Detroit’s lineup on Thursday, then I’m panicking.

-Lance Lynn put some fears to rest with 10 strikeouts and zero walks against the Twins on Tuesday. He did allow two home runs and seven hits so all is not stellar, but the whiffs and lack of walks are a big deal after 6/4 and 5/3 K/BB ratios in his first two outings. A step in the right direction here.

-Garrett Whitlock got tagged for five runs (three homers) over five innings of work in his first start of 2023. He had five strikeouts to zero walks but lived too comfortably in the zone, setting up big swings from Tampa. All in all, we saw more good than bad for Whitlock against a surging Rays team and he’s only 45% rostered on Yahoo! You’ll recall his 3.45 ERA/1.02 WHIP and 9.42 K/9 from last year’s 78 ⅓ IP. If he can ever improve on effectiveness beyond the first time through the order, then he can achieve greatness.

-Lucas Giolito might be scaring you, but that’s nothing compared to Jack Flaherty’s 13 walks in 10 innings! It’s a miracle that Flaherty has only allowed two runs to score with so much traffic ushered onto the basepaths. The Houdini Act can only last so long before it drags his ERA down in the muck that his WHIP currently resides in.

-Bryce Elder looks in far better form than Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd and should remain in the rotation as Atlanta’s No. 5 after Michael Soroka returns. The 23-year-old has kept St. Louis and Cincinnati offenses off the scoreboard with a 50% groundball rate and 13/4 K/BB ratio through two turns. Having the Braves’ offense and bullpen supporting you is worth a flier to many.

-Kris Bubic has Twitter ablaze after blanking the Giants across six innings of two-hit ball with nine strikeouts and no free passes. He’d limited Toronto to two runs in his first outing but this most recent day has some wondering if he can jump a few tiers. Increased velocity, movement, a slider, more life on his fastball, more drop on the changeup, all of this is observable. It’s very possible we get a Brady Singer-like leap from Bubic in ‘23. Make the add and see!

Oh my, Kris Bubic.

✅Most whiffs on SUN
✍️Changeup velo⬆️ 2.3 mph
👀Changeup Whiff%➡️36%
✍️Curve velo⬆️2 mph
🔥Curve Whiff%➡️63%
👀4-Seam Whiff%➡️44%

✅Dropping 4-seam usage & increasing curve, changeup, & slider. YLTSI. pic.twitter.com/WxTzzRSK2i

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) April 10, 2023

Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 3

Tier	Player	Rank	$
1	Gerrit Cole	1	45
1	Jacob deGrom	2	43
1	Corbin Burnes	3	42
1	Shohei Ohtani	4	41
2	Sandy Alcantara	5	41
2	Spencer Strider	6	41
2	Shane McClanahan	7	39
2	Max Scherzer	8	37
2	Zack Wheeler	9	36.5
2	Julio Urias	10	36
3	Aaron Nola	11	35
3	Shane Bieber	12	33
3	Luis Castillo	13	32
3	Kevin Gausman	14	31
3	Cristian Javier	15	31
3	Dylan Cease	16	30
3	Yu Darvish	17	28
3	Zac Gallen	18	27
4	Justin Verlander	19	26
4	Brandon Woodruff	20	24
4	Framber Valdez	21	23
4	Nestor Cortes Jr.	22	23
4	Joe Musgrove	23	22
4	Alek Manoah	24	22
4	Max Fried	25	21
4	Clayton Kershaw	26	20
4	George Kirby	27	20
4	Carlos Rodon	28	20
4	Hunter Greene	29	20
4	Logan Webb	30	19
4	Jeffrey Springs	31	19
5	Jesus Luzardo	32	19
5	Freddy Peralta	33	18
5	Drew Rasmussen	34	17
5	Chris Sale	35	17
5	Logan Gilbert	36	17
5	Joe Ryan	37	16.5
5	Pablo Lopez	38	16
5	Kodai Senga	39	15.5
5	Nick Lodolo	40	15
5	Luis Severino	41	14.5
5	Blake Snell	42	14.5
6	Chris Bassitt	43	14
6	Lance Lynn	44	14
6	Robbie Ray	45	14
6	Dustin May	46	13.5
6	Jordan Montgomery	47	13
6	Reid Detmers	48	13
6	Andrew Heaney	49	11
6	Sonny Gray	50	11
6	Charlie Morton	51	10.5
6	Kyle Wright	52	10.5
7	Brady Singer	53	10
7	Patrick Sandoval	54	10
7	Nathan Eovaldi	55	10
7	Garrett Whitlock	56	9.5
7	Grayson Rodriguez	57	9
7	Alex Cobb	58	8.5
7	Marcus Stroman	59	8
7	Luis Garcia	60	8
7	Jon Gray	61	8
7	Tyler Glasnow	62	8
7	Tony Gonsolin	63	7
7	Tyler Mahle	64	6
7	Triston McKenzie	65	6
8	Sean Manaea	66	6
8	Lucas Giolito	67	5.5
8	Merrill Kelly	68	5
8	Graham Ashcraft	69	5
8	Hunter Brown	70	5
8	Kenta Maeda	71	4.5
8	Jose Urquidy	72	4.5
8	Drey Jameson	73	4.5
8	Seth Lugo	74	4.5
8	Kris Bubic	75	4.5
8	Justin Steele	76	4
8	Tyler Anderson	77	4
8	Miles Mikolas	78	3.5
8	Eric Lauer	79	3.5
8	Jameson Taillon	80	3.5
8	Zach Eflin	81	3
8	Anthony DeSclafani	82	3
8	Bryce Elder	83	3
9	Trevor Rogers	84	2.5
9	Michael Kopech	85	2.5
9	David Peterson	86	2.5
9	Brayan Bello	87	2.5
9	Michael Wacha	88	2
9	Hayden Wesneski	89	2
9	Jack Flaherty	90	1.5
9	Martin Perez	91	1.5
9	Jhony Brito	92	1.5
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	93	1.5
9	MacKenzie Gore	94	1.5
9	Kyle Gibson	95	1.5
9	Carlos Carrasco	96	1
9	Josiah Gray	97	1
9	Roansy Contreras	98	1
9	Steven Matz	99	1
9	Noah Syndergaard	100	1
9	Tylor Megill	101	1

As I said last week: Don't forget to breathe. We've seen most of these arms 2-3 times max and most prior convictions were rooted in a sound thought process. A few folks definitely stunk enough to warrant some panic, but even then, you're likely benching rather than dropping.

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