The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 5

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 5 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season - April 22 through April 28. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone, especially early in the season. As the year progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Triston McKenzie - SP, Cleveland Guardians - 63% rostered

McKenzie is an interesting case. Injuries limited him to just four appearances last year (16 IP) and he's off to a very mixed start to 2024. Friday was his fourth start of the season and his second good start. The good outings have alternated with a pair of dreadful starts. On the season, McKenzie has a 2-2 W-L record, 5.00 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 11 Ks (18 IP). The most eye-watering stat is McKenzie's 18.1% BB% (sixth percentile).

Friday was a nice rebound after allowing five earned runs on four hits and six walks against the Yankees last weekend. He still walked three batters but his six strikeouts more than doubled his season total. The caveat is, it came against Oakland. And if we look at all four of McKenzie's starts individually, the two good ones came against the Athletics and the White Sox. They just so happen the be the lowest run scorers in the league.

As well as the high number of walks, low number of strikeouts, and struggles against any half-decent lineup, health is a concern. After missing so much of last season, we found out earlier this week that McKenzie is pitching with a partially torn UCL. We knew he suffered a UCL sprain last year, which led to much of his absence. The fact he opted against having Tommy John Surgery (TJS) last summer was publicized on Friday.

Triston McKenzie is trying to pitch with a torn ligament in his elbow. The results so far aren’t great. Why didn’t he have surgery last year? Where is the tear? Did he make the right call? McKenzie spoke with ⁦@ZackMeisel⁩ and myself about … a lot. https://t.co/T0tAzPbdnS

— Jason Lloyd (@ByJasonLloyd) April 18, 2024

We saw Masahiro Tanaka have success in similar circumstances a few years ago. That doesn't mean McKenzie (or others) will be able to succeed as well. Only time will tell. For now, McKenzie is at least able to pitch without pain and has found success against the weakest opponents. Whether or not he can be a serviceable starter for fantasy purposes throughout this year remains to be seen.

Verdict: If you roster McKenzie, he's not someone you want to start against every opponent. At least not until he can be trusted. In shallower leagues, that leaves him as a streaming option. If the injury bug has hit your rotation, then McKenzie is worthwhile holding on to. But, compared to most, he's more dependent on how deep your league is, whether you have weekly or daily lineups, and the scoring method in your league.

Byron Buxton - OF, Minnesota Twins - 49% rostered

Buxton has come with the "massive upside" moniker for what seems like an eternity. The problem hasn't been with his performances, it's been his inability to stay healthy. Excluding the 2020 season, Buxton has averaged just 71 games a year since 2018. Even in 2020, he managed only 39 games. Hopes that solely being a designated hitter (DH) would keep him healthy in 2023 didn't work, with Buxton managing just 85 games.

Despite only playing 177 games in the prior two seasons, Buxton still hit 45 homers. That is a tantalizing thought for fantasy managers which led to him being drafted in almost all leagues (ADP ~227). While the health has been there this season, the results have not. After 19 games, Buxton is hitting .215/.246/.338 with no homers, nine RBI, five runs and no stolen bases.

He did add 18 points to his batting average with the 2-for-4 performance yesterday. That should act as another reminder of how quickly someone's low batting average can go up with one or two solid performances. Minnesota has also underperformed in the early goings. Only the previously mentioned Athletics and White Sox have scored fewer runs than the Twins (66).

That should change as the season progresses and so should Buxton's numbers. It's hard to envisage the 40+ homer season he's teased before. And after putting up a .306 batting average in 2021, he's only hit .214/.295/.470 since then. At the very least, expectations should be tempered.

Verdict: It's still too early in the season to write off Buxton, but the early signs aren't promising. Is he playing hurt? Have a myriad of injuries in recent years taken their toll? Both or neither could be true. What we do know is Buxton is playing regularly, but not performing. If you can, giving him more time makes sense. But if there is another position you have to fill, Buxton can be considered as expendable.

Hold For Now

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 1B, Cincinnati Reds - 84% rostered

Encarnacion-Strand was meant to be part of the young Reds core that will take the team to a first divisional crown in over a decade. While I have no doubt he will be a star for years, the early goings in 2024 have been rough. His 2023 debut gave us a glimpse of the power potential, with 13 homers in 63 games and a .270/.328/.477 slash line. This year, Encarnacion-Strand has two homers, 12 RBI, seven runs, and no steals with a .182/.188/.312 slash line (18 games).

The reason Encarnacion-Strand's fantasy managers shouldn't be too concerned right now is the similarities between last year and this. We're dealing with small samples of course but a glance at his Statcast profile for 2023 and 2024 shows plenty of similarities.

Most projections didn't believe Encarnacion-Strand would have a .270 batting average this year. His .257 xBA is more in line with what we should expect. His 162-game pace is currently 18 homers, 108 RBI, 63 runs, and no stolen bases. He's close to being on track to meet projections. Unless there is a change in Encarnacion-Strand's playing time, he's not someone I'd be looking at replacing right now.

Ke'Bryan Hayes - 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates - 77% rostered

Hayes is someone I've always been lower on than the consensus. He's an elite defender at the hot corner, but his bat has yet to come close to matching the glove. After 19 games, Hayes is hitting .264/.379/.347 with no homers, seven RBI, ten runs and no stolen bases. Despite all of that, I'd still suggest holding on to Hayes in most leagues.

Hayes has cut down the strikeouts and upped his walks so far. His 14.9% BB% and 16.1% K% are both career bests. His quality of contact is yet to match previous seasons with a 1.8% Barrel%, 87.6 MPG average exit velocity, and 39.3% HardHit% all being career-lows. As I keep mentioning, it's still early and things can change quickly as we're dealing with small samples.

There's still every possibility that Hayes will hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases, as he did in 124 games last year. And as long as he's healthy, Hayes will be an everyday player. That will help with those RBI and runs. He likely won't hit enough to be valuable in shallower leagues, but Hayes is still worth rostering in deeper leagues. If in a few more weeks Hayes is still lacking consistent good contact, then a wider decision will need to be made.

On the Hot Seat

Charlie Morton - SP, Atlanta Braves - 79% rostered

At 40 years old, it's understandable to believe that Morton's so-so start is down to his age. After shutting out the White Sox over 5 2/3 IP in his first outing, things have turned south. His subsequent two starts also lasted 5 2/3 innings but saw Morton allow a total of 10 earned runs on 12 hits and six walks. Yesterday, Morton had his first quality start of the year, giving up two earned runs on four hits and two walks (6.0 IP).

That's left Morton with a 2-0 W-L record, 4.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 22 Ks (23.0 IP). Last night's outing helped lower Morton's ERA by more than half a run. A reminder that pitchers' numbers can change dramatically after one outing too. As you may expect, Morton's numbers have been in decline in recent years. Since joining the Braves, Morton's seen his strikeout rate drop, walk rate increase, and generally across-the-board regression.

The table below highlights some numbers that have been in decline (numbers taken from Fangraphs).

Morton's impressive 3.64 ERA last year was fortunate, which made up for the bad luck he experienced in 2022. There's still no getting away from the fact Morton has regressed. That's not to say he's still not a solid Major League pitcher. If the Braves can get 150+ innings from him with a ~4.00 ERA, they'll take that in a heartbeat. And so should fantasy managers.

With starting pitchers dropping like flies, we need to calibrate our expectations. The likes of Morton may have only been deeper league options coming into the season, but should certainly be under consideration in most leagues. That's as long as he can pitch well. And the early results have been mixed, leading us to question whether he can be relied upon.

Another point of regression that shouldn't be unexpected is Morton's fastball velocity. It's been dropping gradually since averaging 95.5 MPH in 2021. But the drop from last year (94.9 MPH) to this year (93.7 MPH) is more noticeable. The good thing is Morton doesn't overly rely on his fastball, throwing it around a third of the time. His curveball continues to be his most utilized pitch (42.2% usage).

Morton isn't a definite start, regardless of opposition. He'll continue to rack up strikeouts and wins but your ERA and WHIP will take the occasional hit. Yesterday was promising and if that was a sign of things to come, Morton can have another stellar season. If his two previous outings were more indicative of what we can expect moving forward, the damage to your ratios may not be offset by the wins and strikeouts.

Father Time remains undefeated. However, We're not jumping ship on Morton just yet. Things haven't been trending in the right direction and a decision may need to be made on his fantasy relevancy soon. For now, we hold, start Morton against weaker opposition with confidence, and take things game-by-game in the tougher matchups.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or over on the RotoBaller Discord. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Cody Bellinger - 1B/OF, Chicago Cubs - 97% rostered

The concern with Bellinger is representative of many fantasy manager's concerns about many players. That is a lowly batting average. Entering the weekend series with the Marlins, Bellinger had three homers, 12 RBI, seven runs, and no stolen bases with a .200/.296/.371 slash line (18 games). After going 2-for-4 on Friday, Bellinger's batting average went up to .216.

He then went 1-for-4 (with a homer) in the second of yesterday's doubleheader and now has a season line of .218/.303/.410 with four homers, 14 RBI, nine runs, and no stolen bases. Bellinger has averaged 137 games over the past two seasons. If we first look at the counting stats extrapolated over 137 games, we can see Bellinger is performing as expected. His current pace would give Bellinger 27 homers, 96 RBI, 62 runs, and no stolen bases.

Bellinger has better 'quality of contact' numbers so far than he did last year. He's now on track to be close to the player many hoped for when drafting him (sans the steals). Most hitters are two good games away from turning their numbers around. We can look at Belinger's underlying numbers but even then, it's still a small enough sample to not be concerned. This can be applied to other hitters and is why we should not consider dropping them.

Nico Hoerner - 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs - 92% rostered

The second Cubs hitter that is causing concern among the fantasy community. Unlike Bellinger, the worry with Hoerner is the lack of stolen bases. After 43 steals last year (150 games), Hoerner is yet to tally a steal in 2024. He has been caught stealing twice. In 20 games, Hoerner is hitting .268/.376/.352 with no homers, four RBI, 16 runs and no steals. Hoerner raised his batting average by more than 20 points in the last three games.

The lack of steals is the main worry. The Cubs have a league-low three stolen bases so far (nine attempts). There have been some murmurings about Craig Counsell being the main reason for it and not wanting to run as much. While that may be true, if we look at previous years while Counsell was manager of the Brewers, that wasn't the case.

In 2023, the Brewers had 140 steals (eighth most), in 2022, the Brewers had 96 steals (tenth most) and in 2021, the Brewers had 82 steals (11th most). In those seasons, the Cubs ranked eighth, fourth, and tenth in stolen bases. Hoerner still has excellent speed (77th percentile) and has flashed it recently. He's also getting on base more than ever with a career-high 11.8% BB%. Those stolen bases should begin to flow soon.

NICO HOERNER SCORED FROM SECOND ON A WILD PITCH AND THE GAME IS TIED IN THE 9TH! 🤯

(📸: @WatchMarquee) pic.twitter.com/w5NrpoxG2A

— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) April 16, 2024

The other concern with Hoerner is him hitting seventh in the lineup most days. He has hit leadoff in four of the Cubs' last five games, three of which have been when facing LHP. Hitting seventh will have a detrimental effect on his counting stats so the fact that he's on pace for over 100 runs is impressive. It's difficult to see Hoerner providing value on his ADP (~60). It's also difficult to find better available on waivers. Hoerner is still a hold.

Gleyber Torres - 2B, New York Yankees - 92% rostered

It's been a slow start to the year from Torres. After 21 games, he's hitting .195/.300/.221 with no homer, two RBI, 11 runs and three stolen bases. The preseason injury to DJ LeMahieu allowed Torres to be the Yankees leadoff hitter to start the season. That was a role he lost to the hot-hitting Anthony Volpe two weeks into the season. Conversely, Torres has scored more runs while hitting fifth and sixth than leadoff in fewer games.

The Yankees offense has been very up-and-down. Volpe has been excellent, along with Juan Soto and Oswaldo Cabrera. Aaron Judge has yet to get going, while Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo have both been scuffling. That's been a theme in the Bronx in recent seasons and Torres is no stranger to ups-and-downs. He's been prone to lengthy stretches of sub-par numbers and he's traditionally been a slow starter.

The above table shows Torres' numbers per month throughout his career. This April has been worse than normal but it's not a new thing for him to stutter in the first few weeks of the season. In the final year of his contract, Torres will need to improve if he wants a big payday this offseason. If history is anything to go by, he will improve as the season goes on.

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