The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 23

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 23. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding onto...for now.

By next weekend, we'll be into the final month of the season. While time may not be on our side, there's enough of it left to turn things around and make a final push for glory. Chasing teams need to be brave while fantasy managers looking like they're going to take home a title do not want to get too cute at this stage.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Jordan Walker - 3B/OF, St Louis Cardinals - 56% rostered

Jordan Walker was one of the most sought-after prospects in fantasy drafts this year. After starting the season with the Cardinals, expectations were high. Although not really warranting a demotion, a logjam in the outfield saw Walker sent down to Triple-A in late April while hitting .274/.321/.397 in his first 20 games.

Despite somewhat mediocre numbers in the minors, Walker was called up again by the Cardinals in early June. He's remained with the team since and on the season (86 games) is hitting .255/.323/.412 with 11 homers, 35 RBI, 33 runs, and six stolen bases.

He's going to fall well short of many people's expectations, although they were probably a little overinflated by many. While the Cardinals' season has been a bit of a mess, at least Walker has shown he can already be a solid major-league hitter. I have no doubt he'll improve in the coming seasons.

For the remainder of 2023, however, Walker isn't someone I'd be rostering on my teams. He has been seeing regular playing time lately, sitting once a week normally. But Walker has been in the bottom part of the lineup for the majority of it.

Over the last 14 days, Walker has ranked as the 301st overall player. If we go back over the last 30 days, he ranks 550th overall. The frustration with Walker is despite possessing excellent power, his numbers don't back that up.

Walker ranks in the 72nd percentile for Average Exit Velocity (90.8 mph) and 73rd percentile for hard-hit% (46.1%). He ranks in the 93rd percentile for Maximum Exit Velocity, having hit a ball at 114.3 mph. Yet, Walker's 7.5% Barrel% is only in the 43rd percentile.

The one concern about Walker in the minor leagues was hitting too many groundballs. And while his 49.6% GB% (groundball rate) isn't dreadful, it ranks tied-28th-highest of the 224 hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year.

The two below graphics should offer a good visualization of Walker's hit profile. The first image shows all of Walker's hits. As we can see, the majority of his power comes from pulling the ball but there are a lot of infield singles. Walker's 81st-percentile sprint speed certainly helps with that.

The second graphic below shows the location of Walker's outs this year. Again, we can see a lot of balls pulled on the infield while there are also plenty of flyballs to right field.

In simple terms, when Walker pulls the ball in the air, he'll get success. When he hits the ball the other way or on the ground, he'll struggle. That's true for the majority of hitters but also why Walker hitting as many groundballs as he does will continue to limit his production and fantasy value.

It sounds easy to do and the likes of Yandy Diaz have been able to make the adjustment. Walker only needs to lift the ball more to truly tap into his power. His 23.1% K% and 7.7% BB% (both 42nd percentile) are decent enough to not be a problem as long as he hits well.

It's easy to forget Walker is in his debut season and playing for a team that has had no shortage of issues on and off the field. It's hardly been an ideal situation for Walker to thrive in. But he's held his own and 2023 should act as a good building block for a successful major league career.

Verdict: It goes without saying that Walker is a definite hold in dynasty leagues. In redraft, Walker is only a deep league option as he offers a bit of everything without any standout fantasy category. A tweak to his swing could unlock a lot more but the likelihood of that occurring in the next few weeks is minimal. He's definitely one to monitor next spring.

C.J. Cron - 1B, Los Angeles Angels - 49% rostered

Normally, I don't include players on the IL in the Cut List as you can simply put them on your IL and forget about them. At this stage of the season, that might not be so easy to do. As someone who has been requested previously, now seems like a good time to say he's okay to drop.

When C.J. Cron was traded to the Angels, fantasy managers still rostering him were left worried about the impact leaving Coors Field would have. In truth, Cron hadn't been hitting for huge power in Colorado this year.

In 30 home games with the Rockies, Cron had a respectable .278/.325/.491 slash line but only five homers. Still not bad in a small sample but he's hit seven homers in 40 games away from Coors Field this year.

Back issues have limited Cron to just 70 games this year, in which he's hit 12 homers with 37 RBI, 38 runs, and no stolen bases. His .252/.299/.441 slash line is down on the previous two years. After playing at least 142 games in each of the last two seasons, he's going to fall short of reaching that mark.

Cron's issue is despite possessing prodigious power, he doesn't show it off enough. If we look at his Statcast Profile, we can see that few players are capable of hitting the ball harder than Cron. He just doesn't do it often enough.

Of the 284 players with at least 250 plate appearances, Cron's 7.3% poor/weak contact (according to Statcast) is the joint 22nd-highest. According to FanGraphs, Cron's 22.9% Soft% is the highest among the 284 players.

The Angels have had a rough week with Mike Trout having to go back on the IL and Shohei Ohtani's UCL injury ruling him out of pitching for the remainder of the season. Even if Cron does return in the coming days, the supporting cast around him isn't exactly eye-catching outside of Ohtani.

Of course, Ohtani could just shut down for the remainder of the season at any time given the Angels aren't going anywhere and he'll want to protect his injured elbow as much as possible before free agency.

If Cron can return and be close to 100% healthy, I have no doubt he'll hit a few homers while sprinkling in plenty of 0-for-4 efforts. There isn't really a lot to get excited about with Cron.

When he really connects with the ball, it goes and stays gone. He's responsible for one of the longest home runs in recent memory and could replicate that at any moment. But you don't get bonus points for how far home runs travel or how hard he hits it.

Verdict: If you are able to keep Cron on your IL, then do so. The Angels may opt to keep first-round draft pick Nolan Schanuel as their first baseman for the remainder of the season with Cron set for free agency this winter. Outside of deeper leagues where you are in need of power, Cron's fantasy appeal is lacking.

Hold For Now

Ketel Marte - 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks - 90% rostered

After a disappointing 2022 season, Ketel Marte's fantasy owners were fearing more of the same in the opening weeks of the season. He was off to a rather pedestrian start to 2023 before coming to life in May.

For three months, Marte was one of the best hitters in fantasy. He is currently sporting a .274/.355/.479 slash line with 21 homers, 67 RBI, 80 runs, and six stolen bases (122 games).

Unfortunately, Marte has been unable to maintain his numbers in August. As we can see in the below table, he's having a month-long slump at the plate.

On the year, Marte ranks 50th overall in fantasy. Over the last 30 days, he ranks 417th and 329th over the last 14 days. Marte has still managed to hit four homers in August, maintaining some power even if the batting average has plummeted.

The Diamondbacks offense has been scuffling along in August, which hasn't helped Marte's fantasy production either. They have a 10-3 record over the last fortnight. But in August, they rank tied-21st for runs scored (96). That's a drop from ranking 12th on the season (617).

There's nothing in Marte's numbers to suggest he can't turn things around again in the final month of the season. He started this week well, going 5-for-12 with a homer in the first three games. Last night, Marte homered for the second time this week. Hopefully, that's a sign of things to come.

You shouldn't expect Marte to run much, if at all moving forward. Five of his six stolen bases came in May and he's only attempted one steal since June 10. But everything else in Marte's profile hints at more production throughout the remainder of 2023.

Masataka Yoshida - OF, Boston Red Sox - 90% rostered

It's been an impressive MLB debut season for Masataka Yoshida. After 114 games, he's hitting .294/.346/.455 with 13 homers, 62 RBI, 62 runs, and eight stolen bases. Arguably Yoshida's strongest asset has been his low strikeout rate.

Yoshida is currently sporting a 12.6% K%, which ranks in the 96th percentile. It's not been supported by a good walk rate, however, as Yoshida's 6.2% BB% ranks in the 21st percentile.

Overall, Yoshida's hit profile has shown plenty of promise. The fact he's been able to handle major league pitching in his debut season should bode well moving forward.

While the low number of strikeouts is good, Yoshida has arguably been too passive at the plate. His 58.1% Z-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung at in the strike zone) is the ninth-lowest out of 139 qualified pitchers.

If we look at Yoshida's Swing Take Profile, we can see just how patient he is. His 63% Swing% at pitches in the heart of the zone is 10 percentage points lower than the league average. It even sports a negative run value.

His big strength has been not swinging at the pitches in the Chase Zone. Yoshida's 19% Swing% at such pitches is four percentage points lower than the league average. Ideally, we'd want Yoshida to swing at more pitches in the zone.

Given Yoshida has shown an ability to make solid contact without too much power, being a bit more aggressive at the plate could unlock some more pop. I'm not suggesting a 30-homer season is in play but certainly 20+ homers, even if his batting average drops to near .275.

That's for future Yoshida to work out. For now, despite having his worst month of the season so far, I'm not considering dropping him. His 53 wRC+ in August is the first time he's dropped below 100 wRC+ in a month this season.

Yoshida is currently ranked as the 21st outfielder in fantasy this season. That warrants patience while he works through a minor slump. In some points leagues, he could well find himself as a top-20 outfielder this year, too.

Anthony Santander - 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles - 83% rostered

Anthony Santander was considered a 'cheap source of power' in drafts this year and he's certainly lived up to that. In 121 games, he has 24 homers, 70 RBI, 65 runs, and three stolen bases while hitting .254/.326/.480. Last year, Santander hit .240/.318/.455 with 33 homers, 89 RBI, 78 runs, and no steals (152 games).

At his current pace, Santander will only fall short of last year's numbers by three homers while almost matching his RBI and runs. A lot of Santander's damage came in May when he hit .337/.422/.634 with seven homers and a 190 wRC+.

Since July 1, he's been hitting .236/.328/.479 with 10 homers (45 games). That is still a good home run pace (36 homers in 162 games) and the slash line is similar to what he put up last year. It's just down on his season line after his torrid May.

Last week, Santander experienced a back issue which kept him out of the lineup for a few games. We heard on Sunday that it's something that has been bothering him all season. As regular readers will know, hearing a player is experiencing a back problem sends a shiver down my spine!

The good news is that Santander avoided an IL stint and returned to the lineup on Wednesday. He banished any concerns of lingering issues by homering twice in Wednesday's game and then homered again on Thursday. Santander has gone 7-for-16 this week so maybe back issues are a good thing.

That certainly came as a huge relief for Santander's fantasy managers. In August, before the back issue flared up and Santander missed time, he was hitting just .185/.274/.370. He had still managed to homer three times (15 games).

The power has remained consistent throughout the season. If he can continue hitting for a decent average, Santander should ease away any concerns. This week's return and mini-rampage should go a long way to easing any concerns.

Providing we don't hear of any worsening of the back issue, Santander should remain a solid fantasy power option. A big final month of the year could even see the slugger top last year's numbers.

Alex Cobb - SP, San Francisco Giants - 64% rostered

It's been a pretty dreadful August for Alex Cobb. Wednesday saw him give up two earned runs in five innings against the Phillies, which was by far his best start of the month. His four prior starts this month yielded a 7.59 ERA and that included a quality start against the Diamondbacks.

Cobb's numbers across the whole season are pretty solid. He's got a 6-5 W-L record, 3.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 117 Ks (132.1 IP). Cobb has seen a noticeable drop off in strikeouts this year. After having a 24.3% K% over the previous two years, that's dropping down to a 20.6% K% this year.

Cobb missed a couple of weeks in June with an oblique strain. While it didn't seem a big deal, if we compare Cobb's numbers pre-injury and post-injury, we can see how different they have been.

Not the biggest samples of course but we have seen a noticeable decline in Cobb's numbers since returning from the IL on June 30. There's a chance Cobb has some residual issues stemming from the oblique strain.

It was a low-grade strain as more significant oblique injuries generally sideline pitchers for over a month. With the Giants in a battle for a Wild Card spot, it would be understandable for Cobb to be pitching through some discomfort.

The 573.2 IP by Giants starters is the least in baseball. It's been a real issue all season long and would further the assertion that Cobb is pitching through an issue as they don't have much in the way of alternatives.

Even if Cobb is fully healthy, his numbers lately haven't been enough for fantasy managers to keep him rostered. Wednesday was a step in the right direction but with a low strikeout rate, Cobb's fantasy value is limited already. Cobb hasn't struck out more than four in a start since July.

The pitcher's upcoming schedule isn't too bad. He's lined up to face the Reds, Padres, and Rockies (at home), all of whom rank lower than 15th for runs scored this month.

The Reds and Rockies also have the highest strikeout rates against right-handed pitching (RHP) this month. Cobb does have some routes to offering fantasy value over the next fortnight.

The question is whether you can trust him. Considering his last three starts came against the Phillies, Braves, and Rangers, you could be forgiven for using Cobb only as a situational streaming option.

If you've held onto Cobb for this long, it's probably not the time to drop him. If his next couple of starts do not go well, then I'd have no issue sending him to waivers in all but the deepest leagues.

On the Hot Seat

Aaron Nola - SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 98% rostered

The "every other season narrative" continues with Aaron Nola. A 4.63 ERA in 2021 was followed by a 3.25 ERA in 2022. This year, Nola has an 11-8 W-L record, 4.49 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 165 Ks (160.1 IP).

Nola has a 3.81 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA so at this stage of the year, it's fair to say he's been unlucky. Even if we narrow it down to a smaller sample, Nola has a 4.94 ERA over his last eight starts. But he has a 3.60 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA in that time as well.

If we compare Nola's numbers among all qualified starters (58), it's quite clear where the issue lies.

Nola has given up a home run in 21 of his 26 starts. His 39.8% FB% is similar to the 38.4% FB% he put up in the last two seasons combined. The number of home runs he's allowed does seem a little bit flukey.

Citizens Bank Park only ranks as the 10th friendliest for home runs this year (according to Statcast Park Factors). It's not as if he's had to pitch in Cincinnati all season. And it's not like he offers up hard contact all the time, as his Statcast Profile tells us.

The frustration with Nola has been the inconsistency of his appearances. He's put together a handful of dominant starts followed by a few duds regularly. He kicked things off this year with three starts that combined for a 7.04 ERA.

Nola had a four-game stretch in June that saw him give up 14 runs in 24.0 IP. That included six shutout innings against the Braves, of all teams. On Monday, Nola completed seven innings and allowed just two runs against the Giants.

That outing came on the back of four starts in which he failed to complete six innings and had a 6.75 ERA. Three of those four starts came against the Pirates, Royals, and Nationals.

There's no way you would have sat him against any of those three. The reality is you have to keep running him out there and hope for a good day. Even with the elevated ERA, Nola is still helping in the other pitching categories.

At this stage of the season, you just have to accept Nola for what he is. He has the stuff to be a fantasy ace, but just in even-numbered years. Unless you have the ability to turn the calendars forward 12 months, this is what we are stuck with.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll ensure to cover three requests each week.

Framber Valdez - SP, Houston Astros - 98% rostered

Before we proceed, a reminder that these requests were submitted last Sunday. It may seem odd to request a player who started the month with a no-hitter. But in his three subsequent outings, Framber Valdez gave up 15 earned runs (19.2 IP) to the tune of a 6.86 ERA.

On Friday, Valdez flirted with another no-hitter, completing seven innings without allowing a hit. Unfortunately, Valdez needed 114 pitches to do so, walking five and striking out six. Unfortunately, Ryan Pressly blew the save, leaving Valdez with a no-decision for his efforts.

While I'm not thinking of dropping Valdez in any format, there is some reason for caution with him. Including Friday, he has a 4.75 xFIP and 4.89 SIERA from his last four starts. Valdez had a 4.60 xFIP and 5.14 SIERA in Friday's outing, elevated a bit by the walks.

We've also seen a significant drop in strikeouts this month from Valdez. His 24.3% K% ranks in the 58th percentile this year. In five starts this month, Valdez has an 18.0% K%. If we look at Valdez's pitch usage this year, there's been a noticeable change that will have contributed to things.

Valdez's cutter has a 44.2% Whiff% this year, the most of his pitches. It also has a .185 xBA and .355 xSLG against it. On Friday, only eight of the 114 pitches Valdez threw were cutters and he's not thrown more than 10 in a game since July 8.

Valdez has more than doubled his changeup usage since July and with a 95 Stuff+ rating, it's ranked as his worst pitch. The six four-seam fastballs he's thrown I have discounted from this.

It's the Valdez sinker that really needs to improve if he is to take the next step to being an ace. Given it's his most-used pitch, it needs to get better results. On the year, his sinker has a .294 xBA and .473 xSLG against it. Last year, Valdez's sinker had a .295 xBA and .438 xSLG against it.

The sinker hasn't really been one that a top-tier pitcher should throw ~50% of the time. Despite that, Valdez has still had good numbers this year. In 25 starts (161.2 IP), he has a 9-9 W-L record, 3.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 159 Ks.

Given Valdez is also sporting a 3.40 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA, his ERA isn't luck and his recent struggles are just a product of poor performance. That can be likely credited to his pitch usage.

His no-hitter was sandwiched between a pair of six-run outings and his last nine starts have been real feast or famine. They contain a no-hitter, a seven-inning shutout, four quality starts, and four starts allowing four or more earned runs.

It feels like this is what we'll see over the final weeks of the season. You don't want to bench him for when he has starts like Friday. You just have to keep starting him and hope when he does have an off day, it's not a complete disaster like we've been seeing.

Hunter Brown - SP/RP, Houston Astros - 77% rostered

The second of the Astros rotation who is seemingly causing concern among fantasy managers. It's been a solid full debut season for Hunter Brown with a 10-9 W-L record, 4.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 152 Ks (133.0 IP).

Brown also has a 3.33 xFIP and 3.60 SIERA. He has been someone I was targeting as a possible buy-low a few weeks ago. There was some concern that he would be facing an innings limit at some point this year.

He's already surpassed his career-high 130 innings in a year (set last season) and there are legitimate concerns that he is slowing down. A look at his cumulative ERA demonstrates how Brown has been regressing as the season rolls on.

Brown went into the All-Star break with a 4.12 ERA. His first start in the season's second half saw him allow four runs (5.1 IP).  Considering that was at Coors Field, it certainly wasn't the worst start.

Brown then went on a run of three nearly identical statistical starts. He completed 6.0 IP and allowed two runs while striking out four in each of them. That's where the good times ended.

On August 10, Brown gave up five earned runs against the Orioles (6.0 IP). He was then used in relief (August 10) before starting against the Marlins last Sunday. Brown failed to get out of the third inning and was tagged for six earned runs.

I mentioned it last week about how I don't like starting a pitcher off the back of a relief appearance, as we saw with Brown. Pitchers are creatures of habit and even moving him to the bullpen for one outing can throw someone off their routine. Especially someone so inexperienced.

It wasn't a great outing last night but certainly nice to see him pick up the win, allowing two runs over five innings against the Tigers. He threw 91 pitches so as long as he continues in that manner, Brown can still end the season strongly.

We haven't heard anything definitive about a change in role for Brown or if they will look to cap his innings in the final month. In all but shallow leagues, I'd still be looking at holding Brown. Just maybe wait a few days to see if he is going to continue starting for the Astros.

Assuming he does keep starting and is able to get through at least five innings, Brown should hold some fantasy value and is definitely someone I will be targeting in drafts next season. He's someone I certainly think could be a decent buy-low option in dynasty this offseason as well.

Carlos Estevez - RP, Los Angeles Angels - 77% rostered

Carlos Estevez began the season as one of the most reliable closers in baseball. At the All-Star break, he had a 1.80 ERA and 21 saves (sixth-most). By the end of July, he'd posted a sub-2.00 ERA in three of the four months this season with June's 3.00 ERA representing his worst month.

That was until August. In 10.0 IP this month, Estevez has allowed 11 earned runs. All 11 runs came in three outings with three losses and two blown saves coming this month, too. But he has still picked up five saves, including back-to-back saves against the Mets during this weekend's series.

Any concerns about Estevez losing the role should well and truly be dismissed. The fact that rather than consistent struggles this month, he's just experienced a couple of complete blow-ups while still being pretty dominant the rest of the time.

Estevez has been living and dying by his four-seam fastball. We can see from the below breakdown of Estevez's season by month that he has been experiencing some difficulties with it in August. It is being used more but its effectiveness has been gradually declining.

There is still one big red flag I have regarding Estevez and his fastball. Although he's not walked a batter in his last seven appearances, Estevez's fastball control has declined considerably this month.

Given it's a pitch he's thrown 68.1% of the time this year, 56.5% of them being out of the zone this month is a problem. It also has a 35.3% Whiff% in August, so perhaps the erraticism can actually help...

The concern with this is Estevez will fall behind in counts and be forced to throw most pitches in the heart of the strike zone. That will help to explain why he has a .495 xSLG against his fastball this month.

One of my mantras in fantasy baseball is to never drop a closer. That's largely down to them always having some kind of trade value. With the trade deadline passed in the majority of leagues, that does change things.

If you do not need saves and have to sacrifice someone for help in another category, dropping Estevez would make sense. Just keep in mind someone in your league will need saves and pick him up. In most cases, I'd be holding Estevez as he appears to remain locked into the closer role.

Other than a couple of disastrous outings lately, he's remained one of the better fantasy closers in 2023. While I don't trust he won't experience another one or two shellackings this year, he's seemingly put the recent ones behind him and settled down again. Estevez should still be rostered with some confidence.

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