The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 14

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 14 of the 2023 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 14. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to...for now.

After a slight change to proceedings last weekend, we're back to our regularly scheduled programming. We'll be hitting the midway point of the regular season next week so time is no longer on our side and there are going to be ever more difficult decisions needing to be taken in the coming weeks.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

DJ LeMahieu - 1B/2B/3B, New York Yankees - 51% rostered

It might seem like this is a Yankees special edition of The Cut List but I promise you it isn't and is in no way targeting them. But we can't deny that outside of their stars, there's very little to get excited about right now.

In LeMahieu's first season for the Yankees (2019), he hit a career-high 26 home runs, set career-highs in RBI (102) and runs (109) and ended up coming fourth in the AL MVP voting. In the shortened 2020 season, LeMahieu came third in the AL MVP voting en route to a batting title (hitting .364).

Since then, it's all gone downhill. In the subsequent two years, LeMahieu hit .265/.353/.368 (275 games) with just 22 homers and this year, he's hitting .228/.286/.384 with seven homers, 23 RBI, 25 runs and no stolen bases (63 games).

It's widely known that LeMahieu was playing with a toe injury for much of last year and earlier this week he missed some time but that was to work on mechanical things after a dreadful stretch in which he's hit .160/.194/.277 since May 17.

In his first game after the short hiatus, LeMahieu went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts as the leadoff hitter so hopes of immediate improvements didn't materialize but he hit a double on Friday in a 1-for-4 effort before sitting out Saturday's win.

The fact LeMahieu got off to a solid start this year, hitting .275/.344/.457 prior to May 17 suggests he is at least still capable of being an above-average hitter and his 162-game pace of 18 homers this season would be the second most he's hit in any season.

But the below graphic highlights just how things have regressed so much for LeMahieu as the season has gone on.

LeMahieu does have better expected stats than his actual numbers but not to the point where we'd believe he can return to his early-season form. His .240 xBA, .386 xSLG and .301 xwOBA (.290 wOBA) are all marginally better but still rank in the 34th percentile or worse.

The Yankees below average offense hasn't helped things and the loss of Aaron Judge has been almost catastrophic for them, which of course has impacted LeMahieu. There are over 180 players with more RBI and more runs than LeMahieu, which will help explain why he's ranked 590th on Yahoo!.

That multi-position eligibility that helps fantasy managers is completely redundant if he's ranked so lowly and there will undoubtedly be other options at each of the three infield positions that can help you more.

Even throughout these struggles, the most notable issue has been the strikeouts. LeMahieu came into the season with a 14.5% K% in his MLB career and a 13.2% K% since joining the Yankees. This year, LeMahieu has a 26.6% K% (23rd percentile) which is such a stark difference, it's obvious something somewhere is wrong.

Verdict: LeMahieu is a veteran and if these struggles aren't due to an injury, I'm confident he can improve. But, it's hard to see that improvement lead to anything more than what he did in 2021. He's only really rosterable in deep leagues but I'd still monitor LeMahieu if he has been dropped in your league. If you held him this long, I'd be tempted to give him until the All-Star Break to see if anything comes from his mechanical tweaking. 

Michael King - RP, New York Yankees - 24% rostered

After starting the year as the Yankees primary closer, Clay Holmes lost that role in early May and the Yankees were set to move forward with something that sends shivers down the spines of fantasy managers; a closer-by-committee.

At that stage, it was expected that Wandy Peralta, Ian Hamilton, King and Holmes would all get save opportunities leaving it a bit of a mess from a fantasy standpoint. But King had pitched well and had a 1.35 ERA (20.0 IP) at that stage so was a popular pickup.

Since then, things have not gone well for King. Hamilton got hurt and has been on the IL since mid-May, but is set to return soon. Tommy Kahnle has returned from injury and featured in the later innings while Ron Marinaccio continues to feature in high-leverage spots.

Since May 7, there have been seven different relievers picking up a save for the Yankees including Deivi Garcia and Ryan Weber. And while King has two of them, he also has two blown saves. Below are the numbers for each of the Yankees relievers with a save since May 7.

Garcia's save was of the three-inning variety in a blowout victory, which was his only appearance this year and he's still in Triple-A so I've omitted him from the above list. Weber is on the 60-day IL so won't feature any time soon which is why I've left him off the list too.

But as we can see, any grasp King had on the closer role has been slipping with his numbers the worst of the group and Holmes has been excelling again. With Kahnle returning to form and Hamilton set to return, King may find save opportunities harder to come by.

King was saddled with the loss on Friday after giving up two runs (one earned) in extra innings and despite only throwing 11 pitches in that outing, he didn't feature on Saturday when the Yankees were protecting a one-run lead and used the other four listed pitchers to seal the victory.

King's overall numbers this year are solid, with a 1-4 W-L record, 3.15 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 44 Ks (40.0 IP) so it's just a shame that his downturn in form has coincided with the best chance he's had of being used to close out games.

Realistically, if King had continued to dominate like he did to start the year, he'd still be used in higher leverage spots and you could have expected 20+ saves from him between mid-May and the end of the year. That figure is almost certainly set to be a single digit now.

The fact King is regularly used for multiple innings, with 19 of his 25 appearances seeing him record four or more outs, does mean he has more fantasy value than many other relievers, with greater opportunities for wins and more strikeouts.

But, we're looking for saves from our relievers in fantasy and with King not even at the head of his own team's committee, it's difficult to justify rostering him.

Verdict: In leagues counting holds, King has considerably more value and I still think he's a better option than anyone not named Clay Holmes in the Yankees bullpen. But with Hamilton returning and Kahnle re-emerging, that could also soon change and there's most likely to be other options that will help your teams elsewhere than what you'll get from King. 

Hold For Now

Anthony Rizzo - 1B, New York Yankees - 89% rostered

Regular readers of the Cut List might wonder why there are only two players in the Worth Dropping And Replacing section. But it will become clear as to why when you read on.

We've already covered the struggles of the Yankees this month following Judge's injury and since then, Rizzo is hitting .143/.276/.204. But this is one Yankees hitter I'm not prepared to dump.

The @MLBNetwork research team bringing some smoke today:

Aaron Judge last appeared on June 3. In 15 games since then (6-9 team record), no Yankee has more than five RBIs!

— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) June 23, 2023

Since Judge's last appearance, Rizzo has five RBI and five runs (16 games) and has now gone 25 games without a home run. Despite the recent struggles, Rizzo's season line isn't too bad at all with 11 homers, 37 RBI, 36 runs and no stolen bases along with a .273/.354/.438 slash line (71 games).

We can see how Rizzo has declined in the last few weeks when we look at his xwOBA over his last 50, 100 and 250 plate appearances. But we have seen an uptick over the last week with Rizzo hitting .346/.452/.462 since last Friday.

Rizzo's batting average is an improvement on recent years as he hit just .234 between 2020 and 2022. That can in part be put down to the shift ban as Rizzo was shifted against 82.6% of the time last year and had a .357 wOBA against the shift en route to a .224 batting average.

This year, Rizzo has a .349 wOBA and a .273 batting average, so the shift ban has helped. And the power has remained about as expected. Rizzo has a 162-game home run pace of 26. That's only one shy of what he's averaged over the last two seasons.

And home run droughts aren't a new thing for Rizzo. Last year Rizzo had a 13-game and a 14-game streak without homering so despite equalling his career-high in home runs (32) in 2022. Rizzo still went over two weeks without a homer twice last year.

Of course, that's not as long as his current month-long streak but at least Rizzo has shown signs of coming out of his slump lately and if history can tell us anything about Rizzo, he'll start hitting for power again soon.

On the year, Rizzo is ranked as the 17th first basemen on Yahoo! despite ranking outside the top 600 overall players in the last 14 days and last 30 days. There's nothing to suggest this slump will drag on much longer so I'd continue to persevere and have your patience rewarded.

Luis Severino - SP, New York Yankees - 79% rostered

The fourth and final Yankee on this week's Cut List and the reason why we have just two players included in the first portion of the article and four in this section. I flip-flopped massively over Severino but after his two starts this week, I'm prepared to keep holding.

After an injury-ravaged couple of years, Severino flashed his stuff again last year and there was hope and anticipation that we will see the best version of Severino again in 2023. That has not been the case.

He's only made seven starts and has a 1-2 W-L record, 5.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 32 Ks (36.0 IP). It was a promising start for Severino with just two earned runs allowed in his first two starts (11.1 IP) but his next four starts saw him yield 19 earned runs (18.2 IP) and he failed to complete more than 5.0 IP in those starts.

But yesterday, facing the league's best offense, Severino completed six shutout innings en route to picking up his first win of the season. He only induced four whiffs in 95 pitches, but it was Severino's best outing of the season.

It's important to remember that we're looking at a smaller sample than most given he didn't make his season debut until May 21. Yesterday's start saw him take over one run off of his ERA so it's still early enough in Severino's season to bring that ERA down rapidly.

Following his third start of the year, there were concerns that Severino was hurt again after a 2.9 MPH drop in his average fastball velocity from his second start but Aaron Boone mentioned there were mechanical reasons for it and the fastball velocity has crept up since then.

In yesterday's start, Severino's fastball averaged 97.2 MPH and maxed out at 99.2 MPH so I think we can safely say any injury concerns can be put to bed and for once, the Yankees seem to have provided honest information about a player.

The problem is, Severino's fastball is being hit often and hard. It has a .328 batting average against it along with a .625 SLG and .436 wOBA. The expected stats against it aren't much better (.307 xBA, .585 xSLG and .413 xwOBA).

And Severino's secondary offerings aren't getting the swings and misses they normally do. Last year, Severino's changeup had a 31.1% Whiff%. This year, it's 23.6%. It's the same for his slider, which had a 41.7% Whiff% last year and a 25.0% Whiff% this year.

Again, to reiterate, this is a small sample still but the early signs haven't been too promising and we'll need to see a significant turnaround in Severino's arsenal effectiveness if he is to come close to being the same level of pitcher he was prior to the injuries.

It's still a bit early to pass full judgment on Severino this year and in shallower leagues, there may be better options on waivers. The fact his fastball velocity seems to be returning does offer some hope that Severino will be able to work through his issues.

Severino could feature in between the first two sections of The Cut List, as he's almost a coin flip at this point. But the recent outings have made me believe Severino can still be a fantasy asset and for that reason, I'd still hold on to him. Just.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - OF, Arizona Diamondbacks - 78% rostered

The Diamondbacks raised some eyebrows this offseason when they traded for Gurriel Jr. to join a seemingly crowded outfield in a trade that saw one of their best players (Daulton Varsho) move to Toronto. Things have worked out well so far, however.

Gurriel Jr. has been an everyday player in Arizona and in 66 games so far, he's hitting .276/.327/.488 with 11 homers, 44 RBI, 32 runs and one stolen base. He's already more than doubled last year's home run total (five) and is on track to put up similar numbers to his 2021 season.

But there are some concerns about Gurriel Jr. moving forward. First, let's look at the positives. The biggest positive has been the Diamondbacks offense which ranks in the top-5 for most hitting stats and continues to put up runs.

After starting the year as the number three hitter in the Arizona lineup, Gurriel Jr. has been hitting fifth in the order lately and that's still a good enough spot to help tally those RBI and runs that he's been accumulating.

Only ten outfielders have more RBI than Gurriel Jr. and only eight of those can match his runs scored. Now comes the concern. And it's not that I think the Diamondbacks offense won't continue to hit, but it's that Gurriel Jr.'s recent regression was coming and we may see more.

I've included Gurriel Jr.'s Statcast profile to give you an idea of how he's performed so far and it'll have more relevance shortly.

The reason I say Gurriel Jr.'s regression was due and there might be more is his expected numbers. So far, he's sporting a .255 xBA, .425 xSLG and .321 xwOBA (.350 wOBA). According to Statcast, among qualified hitters, the difference between Gurriel Jr.'s SLG and xSLG is the 14th largest.

The reason I mentioned Gurriel Jr.'s Statcast profile will be more relevant shortly is that just because he's been fortunate and the regression may not have ended, it doesn't mean he won't still be a solid contributor in fantasy.

His expected stats are around league average so even if his actual numbers continue to drop some more and match his expected numbers, he'll still be an average hitter in a good lineup that will continue to score runs.

That's what makes me continue to believe in Gurriel Jr. moving forward. There might still be some more downs than ups and he may only end the season as an OF4/5, but that's still something I'd want to roster in all but the shallowest leagues.

Jarred Kelenic - OF, Seattle Mariners - 72% rostered

On the year, Kelenic is hitting .251/.322/.459 with 11 homers, 35 RBI, 31 runs and eight stolen bases (71 games). Most of his damage was done in April and in June, Kelenic is hitting .172/.289/.297 with just one homer.

While I didn't fully buy into his torrid April, I feel he's regressed beyond his norm and I believe he will improve and be a serviceable outfielder over the remainder of the season.

The reason is the work Kelenic did this offseason and the change to his batting stance and swing which was widely believed to be why he got off to such a good start.

The below image compares the difference in Kelenic's stance between last year and this year.

*Credit for the image goes to Patrick Jones who can find on Twitter (@pjonesbaseball) and who did an informative thread on Kelenic's swing change.

Obviously, the most noticeable change is how upright Kelenic is standing and the position of his hands. That has allowed him to cover the plate much better and make significantly better contact on pitches located across the strike zone.

Below is Kelenic's batting average per pitch location from 2021, 2022 and 2023. All years are relatively small samples but they do help to demonstrate how Kelenic's changes have improved his results.

Not only have the changes helped Kelenic this year, but they're also indicative of his willingness and work ethic to improve. He spent the entire offseason working on things to become better so I don't foresee him just resting on his laurels moving forward.

No doubt, pitchers have begun to adapt to Kelenic's change in approach and are seeking to take advantage of whatever they can which means Kelenic will have to continue working and adapting himself.

Obviously, the strikeouts are still a concern with his 32.9% K% ranking in the fourth percentile but Kelenic is making better contact when he does hit it, as evidenced by his 48.5% HardHit% (85th percentile).

The Mariners have stuttered themselves in June but I'm confident that they will improve and that will likely coincide with Kelenic getting things going again.

If we come out of the All-Star Break and Kelenic is still struggling a couple of weeks later, then I'd start making plans to possibly move on but I'm giving him ample more time for now.

On the Hot Seat

Byron Buxton - OF, Minnesota Twins - 85% rostered

Remember the preseason, when every concern about Buxton was his health? Well, it turns out we should have been concerned about his production too. Buxton has not played the outfield yet this year and it doesn't seem like he will in 2023.

We've heard some players mention that only DH'ing makes them struggle at the plate due to the inactivity between at-bats (something Giancarlo Stanton has said multiple times) and that could be a factor here as well.

Rocco Baldelli spoke at length Tuesday about Byron Buxton's struggles at the plate and that Buxton's return to centerfield is not expected in the foreseeable future.

(2/3) pic.twitter.com/JjeSu0OLM6

— KSTPSports (@KSTPSports) June 20, 2023

For fantasy managers, having Buxton exclusively DH should be a good thing as it reduces the risk of injury. And for someone who hasn't played more than 92 games in a season since 2017, that's should be a good thing.

There are of course questions as to whether the health concerns surrounding Buxton are also affecting his ability to hit, especially given Buxton's .207/.305/.442 slash line along with 13 homers, 27 RBI, 35 runs and six stolen bases (60 games). And before you think his batting average is bad luck, Buxton has a .208 xBA.

For this year at least, Buxton is still outfield eligible and according to Yahoo!, he ranks 68th at the position and 239th overall. Nowhere near his ADP of ~92 but at least he's been usable in your lineups. Well, he was until a few weeks ago.

A rib injury saw Buxton miss a couple of weeks earlier in June and since his return last Thursday, he's hitting .143/.189/.429. But he also has three homers (10 games) including two huge recording-making blasts this past Thursday.

Byron Buxton's 460+ foot home runs -- 3D trajectories overlaid

112.2 mph / 466 feet to LF
111.9 mph / 465 feet to CF

First player in the Statcast era to hit multiple 460-foot homers in a game pic.twitter.com/8iaVRony6S

— David Adler (@_dadler) June 22, 2023

And that's kind of what I think Buxton will be over the remainder of this year. Someone who will hit for power, run a bit but have a batting average of .200-.220. Which is still serviceable in fantasy. Only 17 outfielders have hit more home runs than Buxton and only five of them have done it with fewer at-bats.

If you drafted Buxton, you knew the risk when it comes to his health. But there's not been any doubting the talent and with 47 homers in 153 games over the previous two seasons, we know he possesses the power.

Buxton has a chance to reach 30 homers for the first time in his career, assuming he can stay healthy enough to DH every day (which is still a big if). But, few players will hit more home runs over the remainder of this year than Buxton and that will bring the RBI and runs up too.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Xander Bogaerts - SS, San Diego Padres - 97% rostered

After a red-hot start to his Padres career, Bogaerts struggled mightily in May and although he's picked things up a bit in June, he still hasn't been providing value on his ADP. As the 161st ranked player on Yahoo!, Bogaerts has been a letdown but still not drop-worthy.

On the year, Bogaerts is hitting .256/.342/.391 with eight homers, 27 RBI, 37 runs and nine stolen bases (71 games). Six of those home runs were hit before May and he also scored more runs in April than he has in the nearly two months since then. His monthly splits give you an idea of how things have regressed.

Given the talent on the Padres roster, you'd expect them to be better offensively but they rank 22nd in runs scored and that has been a large reason why Bogaerts hasn't provided fantasy value. That's not to excuse him, but they have been the league's worst team with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP).

Bogaerts himself is hitting .197/.315/.408 with a 101 wRC+ in such situations. That batting average ranks eighth on the team (among the 12 players with at least 20 plate appearances with RISP). To give you an idea of how the lack of runs and RBI hurts Bogaert's value, consider this:

Currently, there are only 16 other players with at least eight homers, nine stolen bases and hitting at least .250. However, there are 54 players with at least 27 RBI, 37 runs and hitting at least .250. So while the speed and power combo has been solid, the runs and RBI have been what's lacking.

For someone who came into this year with a career .292 batting average, hitting .256 is obviously a disappointment and the last few weeks have been rough. But it's hard to believe the Padres offense will continue to struggle as much as they have all year and Bogaerts has still been a viable option over the course of the first half.

Bogaerts 18.4% K% and 10.9% BB% are similar to his career numbers and his track record is something that warrants consideration. The struggles are frustrating but there likely wouldn't be an option I'd rather have on your waiver wire so we just have to ride out the storm and enjoy the rainbow at the end of it.

Josh Lowe - OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 85% rostered

In what seems to be a theme for this week, Lowe got off to a blistering start this year but has cooled significantly in recent weeks. On the year, Lowe has 11 homers, 42 RBI, 33 runs and 18 stolen bases while hitting .284/.328/.502 (65 games). That's enough to rank him 29th overall on Yahoo!.

But, Lowe ranks 313th over the last 30 days and 344th over the last 14 days, so this is a pretty significant slump. And without much of a track record, it's understandable why fantasy managers are worried about Lowe moving forward.

If we look at his numbers over the course of the season, we can see how he's regressed considerably.

While I'm not suggesting Lowe will have another month of hitting .342/.398/.632, as he did in April, I certainly believe he's better than the .234/.265/.297 he's been in June. The truth feels like it's somewhere in between.

If we go back and look at Lowe's Triple-A numbers, we can get a better idea of who he is. In 191 games at that level, Lowe hit .301/.390/.544 with 36 homers and 51 stolen bases. So a 20-homer and 30-stolen-base season isn't completely out of the realm of possibility, especially after the start he made.

Given Lowe had only played 54 MLB games before this season, it could be a case of pitchers adapting to him. In Lowe's first 30 games, he had a 21.6% K%. Since then, Lowe has a 27.7% K% (35 games).

Obviously, a 27-game homerless streak isn't ideal and the Rays rotation of their lineup doesn't help matters. But Lowe is fifth on the team in plate appearances (241) and the Rays have the second-ranked offense so playing five times a week is enough to provide a solid return.

If you've held on to Lowe this long, he's still been helping a bit with five stolen bases this month and I do expect Lowe to pick things up offensively again. I doubt we're seeing a top-100 player this year but Lowe should easily finish as a top-40 outfielder this year.

Willy Adames - SS, Milwaukee Brewers - 77% rostered

Similarly to Bogaerts, Adames is in the midst of a down year with a lower-than-normal batting average and on a team that has struggled offensively. The Brewers are 26th in runs scored (307) while Adames is hitting .213/.293/.393 with 12 homers, 34 RBI, 34 runs and four stolen bases.

Despite there being only five shortstop-eligible players with more home runs than Adames, he still only ranks 26th at the position on Yahoo!. The power is the only thing keeping Adames as rosterable right now and his two-homer game on Friday was a nice reminder of what he can do.

That also ended a streak of 12 games without an extra-base hit. The good news is Adames continues to hit in the heart of the lineup, moving between the second, third and fourth spots in the order and he seems to have ended his barren spell.

Adames' Statcast profile is rather ugly looking as you'd expect but there are some crumbs of comfort if you look hard enough.

The expected numbers are bad. But, still better than his actual numbers with a .222 xBA, .407 xSLG and .317 xwOBA (.285 wOBA). And given the Brewers offense has struggled collectively, they don't have a host of options that will see Adames move down the batting order.

While Adames does have excellent numbers since joining the Brewers, hitting 51 homers in 238 games before this year, his track record is not that of Bogaerts and there is less reason for optimism moving forward.

That being said, Adames does remain one of the premier power options at shortstop and if his numbers do take a slight upturn like you'd expect, he should be able to return decent fantasy value.

Friday was a timely reminder of the power Adames does possess and you won't find many better options for home runs at the middle infield positions on your waivers.

Even so, in shallower leagues, if you have enough power on your roster then dropping Adames is understandable if you are able to get some help your team needs. But just remember, you're providing a league mate with 15-20 home runs at the shortstop position over the remainder of this season.

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