X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Slow-Starting Hitters to Avoid in 2020

This fantasy baseball season is going to be strange, and there is nothing you can do to change that. What you can do is try to come up with a strategy that best sets your team up for success in this world of the unknown that currently exists. While we do not know when the baseball season will begin, it is a safe bet at this point to assume we will have a reduced season. Whether it be 80, 100 or 120 games (my guess is around 100), it will be unlike any season you have ever played before.

One way this will impact the fantasy season was brought to my attention on Twitter in a conversation between two very respected fantasy baseball analysts and players: Matt Modica and Rob Silver. The two were discussing how a slow start for a player will be harder to overcome than ever because there are simply fewer games to make up for it. Typically, analysts will say not to panic and to try to buy low during slow starts. However, April is typically just one out of six months. If a batter plays 30 games in March/April, it would be just 19 percent of a regular 162-game season. The same slow start in a 100-game season would equate to 30 percent of the season, indicating that the room for error shrinks dramatically. The smaller the sample size, the more a bad stretch hurts.

It is important to find players that historically get off to slow starts, but there is no perfect science to identify them. Three years is the perfect range because there is too much noise in using just a one-year sample size. I also wanted to avoid going too many years back, because I wanted players to be around the talent level they are now. The stats used are every hitter's April performance from the past three seasons compared to the rest of the season (May-Sept) in the same three-season span. Metrics are used instead of raw numbers (HR, runs, RBI) because a one-month sample is clearly going to be insufficient when compared to five months. Strategically, it is preferable to avoid players with slow starts in a shortened season draft. Rather than draft them and get into an early-season hole, avoid them and attempt to trade for them when the team with them is falling down the standing, panicking quicker than in a normal season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Avoiding Hitters Who Get Off to Slow Starts  

Alex Bregman is a borderline first-round pick, but there are people who are concerned with how the Astros will perform this season. I am more concerned that he has a history of getting off to slow starts. In the last three seasons, his average in the first month of the season is .260, and his ISO is .125. In the rest of the season, his three-year norm for batting average is .294, and his ISO is .268. That is a difference of .034 in average and a whopping .143 ISO. That is the largest gap in ISO in the entire league. And, to make sure there wasn’t just one really bad start dragging him down, I looked at each of the last three seasons individually. In all three seasons, his lowest ISO of any month was the first month of the season.

His April average was a low point in 2018 and the second-lowest of his season in 2017. Additionally, I am not as concerned that cold weather was a factor in that slow start (cause I believe that greatly impacts some players) since the Astros play in a dome. I think Bregman will be the ultimate buy-low player if he gets off to a slow start this season. Those who drafted him will think it is all the boos and such getting to him. You buy him for a discount and get the MVP caliber play out of him. But as for drafting him? This is scaring me off of using a first-round pick on him.

Edwin Encarnacion was a player I was drafting quite often because I believe that he is one of the best values on the board each year. However, he is also a notoriously slow starter. Over the last three seasons, Encarnacion has had a batting average .063 points lower and an ISO .065 lower in April than the rest of the season. I wanted to take it a step further with Encarnacion because he was not bad last April, and the two seasons prior he played in the cold weather in Cleveland. However, April is by far his worst career month in average and ISO. His career average in April is .236, and his ISO is .195. I still think Encarnacion is a good value where he goes, but I am starting to like the idea of letting someone else draft him and buying if he gets off to a slow first couple of weeks.

Giancarlo Stanton is another player I had to take it a step further. I threw away 2019 for Stanton because he hardly played. He got off to a really bad start in 2018, but that could be viewed as circumstantial, as he was in a new league, on a new team, in a cold city no less. But, looking at his career splits, April is by far the worst month of his career. His .251 average and .231 ISO in April are both his lowest in any month.

Stanton is in a weird spot right now. Currently, he is a good value in drafts because he is no longer a lock to miss any time at the start. Due to the suppressed ADP, I am okay drafting him. But, I expect when we have a start date for the season, and it is widely realized that Stanton is healthy, he will climb back up to the fourth or fifth round. If that happens, given his history as a slow starter and the injury risk, I will let someone else draft him and attempt to buy low if he starts slow again.

Anthony Rizzo is a known slow starter. Remember the trend as of late? He would start the season off slowly, and then Joe Maddon would let him hit leadoff for a couple games, and he would get going. Over the last three seasons, Rizzo’s average is .077 points lower in the first month than the rest of the season, while the ISO is .029 percentage points lower. In his career, April is by far his worst average of any month, at .241. The one risk in these numbers is that Rizzo plays in cold Chicago. It will no longer be cold and windy at the start of this new season, but summer weather. I am not fully avoiding Rizzo because of his slow starts in the past, but I will use it as a tie-breaker if I am debating between him and another player.

Yasiel Puig has two things working against him in the early part of the season: he still does not have a team, and he is historically a slow starter. Over the last three seasons, his average in the first month of the season is .207, while his ISO is .141. The average is 0.72 points lower than his rest-of-season norm, while the ISO is .088 lower. Puig is sort of in a unique scenario. He is quickly falling in drafts: I got him in round 19 of a 15-team draft last week. At that price, he is pure upside. But, if he signs with a team, I expect him to shoot back up draft boards, and in that case, I would be avoiding him.

Yuli Gurriel has sported an average that is .035 points lower in April and an ISO that is .053 points lower. Gurriel has struggled out of the gate in recent seasons, including in 2019, when he had a career year. There is a lot working against Gurriel; one is that he is coming off of a career season where he put up numbers that he could only dream of prior to last year. I have a tough time buying into a player coming off a career season, especially one with an unpleasant Statcast profile (see below). He also has to deal with all the scrutiny that the Astros will face this season and will no longer have the privilege of knowing what pitch is coming. Add in the fact that he is a slow starter, and Gurriel is a hard pass for me.

There is one team that has been plagued by offensive slow starts, and that is the Rockies. You can pick any of their big bats, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon, and they are all worse in April. In fact, Blackmon is the only one whose ISO is not lower in April than the rest of the season, while all of their averages are lower than the opening month.

The one caveat is they typically open the season in Denver when that Rocky Mountain cold air is still present. As the weather heats up, we know these bats will. Now they will be starting when it is warm, so the weather vs slow starters will really be tested here. Of all the players listed, the Rockies bats are the ones I am least scared off of due to a slow start. But, you best believe if any of these guys start off slow, I will be looking to buy for a discount.

 

Others with a Worst Average in the Opening Month

Next to the players' name will be the decrease in average a player has in April, compared to the rest of the season. In Parentheses will be their three-year April average and then the three-year rest of season norm.

Ramon Laureano, -.067 (.234 April avg, .300 ROS avg)

Jackie Bradley Jr., -.065 (.179 April avg, .244 ROS avg)

Ketel Marte, -.063 (.238 April avg, .300 ROS avg)

Byron Buxton, -.058 (.201 April avg, .259 ROS avg)

Matt Carpenter, -.055 (.198 April avg, .253 ROS avg)

Eddie Rosario, -.048 (.245 April avg, .292 ROS avg)

Brett Gardner, -.046 (.213 April avg, .259 ROS avg)

Juan Soto, -.044 (.248 April avg, .291 ROS avg)

Rougned Odor, -.043 (.181 April avg, .224 ROS avg)

Andrew McCutchen, -.042 (.232 April avg, .274 ROS avg)

Starling Marte, -.042 (.249 April avg, .291 ROS avg)

Jose Ramirez, -.033 (.256 April avg, .289 ROS avg)

Carlos Santana, -.032 (.230 April avg, .262 ROS avg)

Jesus Aguilar, -.029 (.236 April avg, .265 ROS avg)

 

Others with a Worst ISO in the Opening Month

Next to the players' name will be the decrease in ISO a player has in April, compared to the rest of the season. In Parentheses will be their three-year April average ISO and then the three-year rest of season norm.

Justin Turner, -.127 (.104 April ISO, .230 ROS ISO)

Jurickson Profar, -.126 (.089 April ISO, .215 ROS ISO)

Ramon Laureano, -.121 (.121 April ISO, .242 ROS ISO)

Jesus Aguilar, -.119 (.124 April ISO, .244 ROS ISO)

J.D. Martinez, -.117 (.204 April ISO, .321 ROS ISO)

Rafael Devers, -.111 (.126 April ISO, .237 ROS ISO)

Jackie Bradley Jr., -.108 (.083 April ISO, .191 ROS ISO)

Randal Grichuk, -.092 (.162 April ISO, .255 ROS ISO)

Matt Carpenter, -.087 (.147 April ISO, .234 ROS ISO)

Byron Buxton, -.086 (.111 April ISO, .197 ROS ISO)

Rougned Odor, -.086 (.124 April ISO, .210 ROS ISO)

Carlos Santana, -.082 (.137 April ISO, .219 ROS ISO)

Jose Ramirez, -.073 (.199 April ISO, .272 ROS ISO)

Jeff McNeil, -.072 ISO (.130 April ISO, .202 ROS ISO)

Again, this is not a perfect science as there are variables such as weather and circumstances that could affect early-season performance that we simply can't quantify. However, finding players that have a history of getting off to slow starts is the best way we can quantify those who get off to a slow start. And in a shortened season, a slow start can bury a team in the first month or so, since there is simply less time to recover.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NFL2 hours ago

Kevin Stefanski, Andrew Berry Likely Returning To Browns In 2025
Deshaun Watson3 hours ago

Likely To Remain With Browns, Could Face Competition
Cedric Tillman3 hours ago

Enters Concussion Protocol
Cedric Tillman4 hours ago

Suffers Head Injury On Thursday Night
Wendell Carter Jr.5 hours ago

Out Against Lakers
Anthony Davis6 hours ago

Available Versus Magic On Thursday
Rui Hachimura6 hours ago

Unavailable Thursday
Carlos Ulberg6 hours ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir6 hours ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes6 hours ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA7 hours ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo7 hours ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan7 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Yves Missi7 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
CJ McCollum7 hours ago

Not Likely To Play Friday
Alexander Mattison7 hours ago

Zamir White Miss Practice Again
Brandon Ingram8 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Shohei Ohtani8 hours ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge8 hours ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Ja'Kobe Walter8 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Donte DiVincenzo8 hours ago

Available Thursday
Mike Conley8 hours ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Jordan Clarkson8 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Ausar Thompson8 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Zach Collins8 hours ago

Cleared To Play Thursday
Domantas Sabonis8 hours ago

Gets Through Full Practice
Chris Paul9 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Brock Purdy9 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Malik Monk9 hours ago

Making Progress
George Kittle9 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Tre Mann9 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Miles Bridges9 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Vince Williams Jr.9 hours ago

Out At Least A Month
Scottie Barnes9 hours ago

Returning On Thursday
Alex Ovechkin9 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Paul George9 hours ago

Out At Least Two Games
Aaron Gordon9 hours ago

Availability In Question For Friday
Zach Hyman9 hours ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson9 hours ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Yaroslav Askarov10 hours ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Jalen Hurts10 hours ago

Practices In Full On Thursday
Mikael Granlund10 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Alexandar Georgiev10 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
TB10 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Will Miss Thursday's Game
Frederik Andersen10 hours ago

To Miss 8-12 Weeks
Jake Ferguson10 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Sam LaPorta10 hours ago

Looking Good For A Week 12 Return
Sam Darnold10 hours ago

Upgrades To Full Participation, On Track To Play
Isiah Pacheco11 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
D'Andre Swift11 hours ago

Upgrades To Limited Participant On Thursday
CeeDee Lamb11 hours ago

Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Ladd McConkey11 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Thursday
Mike Evans11 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
DeVonta Smith12 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger13 hours ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
Brandin Cooks13 hours ago

Preparing To Play In Week 12
CeeDee Lamb13 hours ago

Not Seen At Thursday's Practice
13 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Aaron Rodgers14 hours ago

Jets Owner Suggested Benching Aaron Rodgers
Mike Evans15 hours ago

Practicing Again On Thursday
Chandler Stephenson16 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson16 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist17 hours ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies17 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund17 hours ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine17 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Chris Sale1 day ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal1 day ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat1 day ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Seth Jones1 day ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Max Domi1 day ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Connor Ingram1 day ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen1 day ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
Alex Tuch1 day ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Jordan Eberle1 day ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
Ludvig Aberg1 day ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole1 day ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
3 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
3 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
3 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
3 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer4 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
4 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
4 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
4 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler4 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva4 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy4 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
James Llontop5 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig5 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal5 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic5 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones5 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Bo Nix - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Matchups We Love - Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 12 Include Bo Nix, De'Von Achane, Quentin Johnston, Calvin Ridley, more

It seems as though fantasy managers were either incredibly disappointed or incredibly excited in Week 11. The output was modest for most players. However, if you had a monopoly on a select few players such as Cooper Kupp, Taysom Hill, or the Detroit Lions, you likely won your week. With the fantasy playoffs roughly three weeks […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Week 12 Predictions: Picks and Analysis for Every Game Including Thursday Night Football

After some high-octane matchups over the last couple of Thursday nights, Week 12 kicks off in a more old-school fashion with a classic rivalry game between the Steelers and Browns. There are some fun matchups on this Week 12 slate, however, "Bye-Mageddon" certainly does take a little of the sizzle away, as six teams will […]


TJ Watt - IDP, Pittsburgh Steelers, DST, Defense, Fantasy Football Def

Week 12 Fantasy Football Team Defense Rankings: Steelers D/ST, Chiefs D/ST, Vikings D/ST, Eagles D/ST, Commanders D/ST, Texans D/ST, Broncos D/ST

Fantasy football defenses are largely matchup-dependent, so many fantasy managers opt to stream a different defense each week. If you're in that boat, use our Week 12 fantasy football defense (D/ST) rankings for 2024 to find the top available option. There are just three weeks of the fantasy football regular season left, so it's never […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, George Pickens

The Week 12 TNF game between two bitter AFC North rivals (Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers) is not likely to end up like the Thursday night game from two weeks ago when two different AFC North teams (Bengals and Ravens) battled to a 35-34 shootout. Somewhere deep in the charter of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I […]


DJ Moore - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Deebo Samuel, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Jonathon Brooks, Jauan Jennings, Tank Dell

Many fantasy managers are in must-win situations down the stretch, so it's never been more important to ace your start-or-sit calls. Our Week 12 TNF fantasy football overall rankings for 2024 are here to help. Ahead of the critical Week 12 slate of action, let's find out where players on the start-sit bubble such as […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football FLEX Rankings (RB, WR, TE) - Week 12 Thursday Updates for Chuba Hubbard, Calvin Ridley, Cedric Tillman, Jonnu Smith, Austin Ekeler

It's always tough to compare two flex options at different positions, but bye weeks and key injuries have made those start-sit decisions even tougher. We're here to help guide you with your lineup calls with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Navigate the rankings below to find out where top flex […]


Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Superflex 2QB Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Austin Ekeler, Jayden Reed

Time is running out to collect "Ws" before the fantasy football playoffs begin, and if you need assistance, our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for fantasy football can assist your start-or-sit efforts. Let's get to it! To begin Week 12 preparation, let's dig into the rankings to find out where key Superflex options […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday RB Updates for Jonathon Brooks, J.K. Dobbins, Bucky Irving, Najee Harris, Kareem Hunt

We're onto Week 12 of the NFL campaign, which can only mean the fantasy football playoffs are just ahead. Whether you're at the top of your league standings, fighting for a playoff spot, or are just trying to play spoiler, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football running back rankings for 2024 are here to help you […]


Cedric Tillman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

TNF Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday WR Updates for Cedric Tillman, Jauan Jennings, Josh Downs, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Moore

At the wide receiver spot especially, bye weeks and injuries are major factors in Week 12. If you don't have an excess of must-start WRs and need help identifying the top available options, we're here to help with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dive in below to see […]


Jonnu Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Tight End Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday TE Updates for George Kittle, David Njoku, Will Dissly, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry

In most leagues, only three weeks of the fantasy football regular season remain. If you desperately need a win to clinch a first-round bye or quality for the playoffs, use our Week 12 TNF fantasy football tight end rankings to help you with tough start-or-sit calls at the challenging TE spot. Ahead of the critical Week […]


Tommy DeVito- Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Not All Heroes...Play On Good Teams - Giants, Patriots, and Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlooks

It's well-known at this point that good offenses can help their players light up the scoreboards in fantasy football leagues. The mantra "trust in good players on good offenses" rings true, and some of the best seasons in fantasy football history have been aided by things like good playcalling and a good supporting cast. The […]


Baker Mayfield - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

TNF Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday QB Updates for Anthony Richardson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud

It's a critical week for fantasy football, as the playoffs are just around the corner. If you need help to nail your optimal lineups this week, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football quarterback rankings for 2024 are here to assist. Ahead of the all-important Week 12 slate, let's navigate the rankings below and find out […]


Jaylen Waddle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Outlook - What's Wrong With Waddle?

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was widely pushed as a potential league-winner in fantasy football in 2024 due to a variety of factors. The explosiveness and big-play ability of the Dolphins offense, the good play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and his talent were a few of them. It's not worked out that way. It's […]