X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Launch Angle For Week 5

Logan Webb - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Draft Sleepers

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose launch angles could make them adds, drops or trade targets for Week 5.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Last week I took a look at exit velocity, and this week I will analyze a metric that pairs well with it: launch angle (LA).

Pitchers can find success by allowing fly balls, but they generally strive to get hitters to put the ball on the ground since a ground ball, even a hard-hit one, is less likely to go for a hit or damaging contact. Knowing which pitchers can get away with allowing fly balls and which succeed as ground-ball pitchers can help fantasy managers roster a strong rotation.

While LA alone does not paint a pitcher's complete story, it is a good indicator as to what type of results they could experience throughout the season. I will pick two SP in the top percentiles of LA and two in the bottom, take a look under the hood, and predict what we can expect from them going forward. We're about a month into the season now, so let's start taking advantage of the data!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Launch Angle Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 8, 2022.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
1-2, 3.34 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, -7.4 Degree LA

Framber Valdez is the first Astros starter I will look at in this article, and he, like many of his teammates, has gotten off to a strong start this season. The 28-year-old has gone 1-2 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 18.8% strikeout rate over his first six starts and 32 1/3 innings pitched. True to form, Valdez is a sinker-heavy, groundball pitcher and has a league-leading -7.4-degree LA. This approach makes Valdez a successful big-league pitcher, but what does it mean for his fantasy value?

Valdez mixes five different pitches in his arsenal, but he relies primarily on his sinker at 53.5% usage. He keeps all of his pitches in the bottom of the zone, inducing hitters to hit the ball into the ground. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also above-average, which helps him. He does rely on contact; his 79% contact rate is among the higher marks in baseball. Consequently, his strikeout upside is limited. That being said, his 9.8% swinging-strike rate is right in line with his 10% career mark, so it would not be surprising to see his strikeout rate creep up towards his career mark of 22.2% as the season progresses.

Overall, Valdez offers plenty of fantasy value despite being a contact pitcher. He gets solid batted-ball results, pitches deep enough into games to be win-eligible, has a strong offense backing him, and may see a bit of an uptick in strikeouts from where he currently stands. He may not be the most exciting fantasy starter, but Valdez is a safe, high-floor option in both points and roto leagues.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
4-1, 3.82 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 0.6 Degree LA

Logan Webb emerged in 2021 as a strong fantasy option and has continued that this season, compiling a 3.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over his first six starts. He has also continued his groundball tendencies from last season, generating a 0.6-degree LA that is tied for second-best in baseball. How has Webb found his success? 

Webb's success can be tied to the development of his diving changeup, which he pairs evenly with a sinker and slider. He has actually thrown his changeup more than his sinker this season and has gotten hitters to pound balls into the ground with both pitches. Like Valdez, Webb has a higher contact rate at 76.4%, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are strong in the 76th and 58th percentiles of baseball, respectively.

Data from baseballsavant.mlb.com

The one concern for Webb is his drastic drop in strikeouts to this point. His strikeout rate dropped from a solid 26.5% in 2021 to a career-low 18% this season. This is puzzling, as his contact rate is not that much higher than his 73.2% last season, and his overall swinging-strike rate of 11.4% is not drastically lower than his 2021 12.4% mark. He has also seen a slight jump in swinging-strike rate for each of his three main pitches. I can only chalk this up to bad luck and expect to see those numbers improve with a larger sample size.

Webb has been a surprise higher-end fantasy option since the 2021 season and has underlying metrics to back up his performance. He mixes his pitches well and keeps the ball down in the zone. He does have decent swing-and-miss stuff, and the lack of translation of that into strikeouts so far this season seems to be an anomaly. I expect Webb to continue to be a strong fantasy option at the top of managers' rotations this season.

 

Launch Angle Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 8, 2022.

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians
2-2, 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 21.9 Degree LA

Triston McKenzie has had a lot of fantasy hype surrounding him throughout his career, and while last season was a disappointment, things have been better for him in 2022. The 24-year-old has compiled a 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 26.1% strikeout rate over his first 29 1/3 IP this season. However, his 21.9-degree LA is the fourth-highest among qualified pitchers this season. As I mentioned at the top of the article, pitchers can allow fly balls and be successful; can fantasy managers expect this to continue for him?

This seems pretty straightforward to me. Fly-ball pitchers who are successful don't allow a lot of contact and allow soft contact. McKenzie has done neither this season. His 79.2% contact rate is one of the higher marks in baseball, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the bottom eight and 14 percent of baseball, respectively. The combination of a high launch angle and hard contact typically does not bode well for pitchers, suggesting that McKenzie has gotten lucky so far. As an example, he has managed a minuscule 2.9% HR/FB rate with his batted-ball profile, which is both very low in general but also much lower than his career 13.2% value.

Overall, I think McKenzie has vastly outperformed his batted-ball profile. It is only a matter of time before all the hard-hit balls in the air start to turn into extra-base hits or leave the ballpark. His pitch mix, while sufficient at generating strikeouts, is not strong enough to keep hitters from hitting the ball hard. As such, I consider McKenzie as a strong sell-high candidate at this time.

Luis Garcia, Houston Astros
2-1, 3.45 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 21 Degree LA

Luis Garcia has gotten off to a nice start to his career and has continued that into 2022. The 25-year-old has gone 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 25.2% strikeout rate through his first five starts. His results have been strong, but his 21-degree launch angle is tied for fifth-highest among qualified pitchers. Can he continue to produce these results while allowing such a high LA?

Garcia throws five pitches, but he mainly relies on a four-seam fastball (53.1% usage) and a cutter (23.8% usage), followed by a curveball (8.8% usage) and changeup (8.5% usage). It is a bit surprising that Garcia has found such success as a starter in general with his high fastball usage, although he does have a deceptive delivery. Looking more specifically into his LA, the main culprit is his four-seamer. Garcia throws his four-seamer up in the zone and has a 25-degree LA to show for it. His 91.5-MPH exit velocity on the pitch is average, but his expected batting average and slugging percentage are both a good deal higher than his current marks.

Garcia has gotten good results overall this season and now has a career of 3.44 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 196 1/3 IP. However, he relies heavily on his fastballs and has allowed a high LA with them this season. This can be fine if he gives up weak contact, and his average exit velocity this season is about league average, but his expected stats on his four-seamer are not strong. I am not all that concerned given the success he has found so far in his career, but I wouldn't rule out attempting to trade him in the event that his expected stats catch up to him.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF