X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitch Mix Analysis: Starting Fantasy Baseball Pitchers With Upside In Their Arsenal

Jon Anderson looks at different fantasy baseball pitchers' pitch mixes and breaks down who could have a strong fantasy season in 2023.

If you are going to make a living as a Major League starting pitcher, you had better come to the table with more than one effective pitch. There are very rare exceptions, but exceptions do not disprove the rule. Starting pitchers need multiple useful offerings to have success, and that's especially true when we're talking about getting deeper into games.

We saw a few more pitchers appear in 2022 that dominated (at times, at least) with just two pitches. Think of Spencer Strider (67% four-seam, 28% slider), Hunter Greene (54% four-seamer, 41% slider), and even the great Jacob deGrom (47% four-seam, 39% slider). The common denominator among those six pitches I mentioned is that they were all among the game's hardest-to-hit pitches. If you have two elite pitches, you can make it, but success is much more likely overall with three or more arrows in the quiver.

What I want to do in this piece is investigate the pitches that have the best and deepest arsenals. I want to specifically find the pitchers that have impressive pitch mixes but aren't currently viewed as aces in the league. This is a fantasy sports website, and it doesn't do the reader any good for me to tell you that Jacob deGrom is very good. So we will look for some less popular names that stand out in the data. Let's go for it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Two Elite Pitches

First, let's check for more of these Strider/deGrom types. I searched the database for pitchers with two pitches that perform five points above the league average in SwStr% by five or more points. It's important that we note that not all swinging-strike rates are created equal. Here's a table of the league average SwStr% by pitch type from 2022:

Pitch SwStr%
Splitter 19.2%
Slider 16.6%
Changeup 15.4%
Curveball 12.9%
Cutter 11.8%
Four-Seam 10.6%
Sinker 7.0%

When I say "above league average," I mean league average for that pitch type. A 15% SwStr% on a four-seam fastball is 4.4 points above league average, but a 15% SwStr% on a slider is 1.6 points below league average - it's very important context. Let's get to these pitchers:

Pitcher Pitch 1 SwStr% Diff Pitch 2 SwStr% Diff
Andrew Heaney FF +5.2% SL +9.8%
Blake Snell SL +9.3% CU +6.9%
Brandon Woodruff FF +6.3% CH +14.3%
Clayton Kershaw CU +7.2% SL +7.5%
Corbin Burnes SL +8.9% CU +8.7%
Drew Smyly SI +5.3% CU +5.6%
Framber Valdez CU +11.1% FC +6.4%
Gerrit Cole FC +5.5% SL +9.1%
Jacob deGrom FF +5.7% SL +17.0%
Jesus Luzardo CH +11.9% CU +5.5%
Jordan Montgomery CH +9.8% CU +6.5%
Luis Garcia FC +8.3% SL +5.3%
Max Scherzer FC +10.3% SL +11.2%
Shane Bieber CU +10.5% SL +6.3%
Shane McClanahan SL +9.4% CH +10.0%

FC = Cutter, FF = Four-Seamer, SI = Sinker, SL = Slider, CU = Curveball

Mostly this is a list of established aces, but we do see some surprising names popping up:

Framber Valdez: Has long been a below-average strikeout pitcher, but clearly has the ability to get strikeouts when needed with these secondary pitches (he mostly throws sinkers) and get whiffs at high rates.

Jordan Montgomery: Has seemingly been on the cusp of making a big step forward for fantasy purposes, but hasn't done it. He did look pretty good after joining the Cardinals, and once again should be a useful late-round pitcher to take for some relatively safe production.

Jesus Luzardo: The stuff has never been a question, it's just about the health and the walks. His arsenal is sick, but I have my doubts he can ever be consistent enough to enter fantasy acedom.

Drew Smyly: A talented pitcher with a career derailed by injury time and time again. He had some good stretches in 2022 but will be a pretty thin pick for 2023 at the age of 33.

 

Three (or more) Good Pitches

I think we want to look at the swinging-strike rate when talking about elite pitches. When loosening it up, however, I think it's fair to switch to looking at CSW% (called strike plus swinging strike rate). A called strike is just as good as a swinging strike in practice, although a high swinging strike rate turns out to be a better predictor of future fantasy greatness than CSW%. The intent of all pitches is to earn a strike (this isn't exactly true on 0-2 counts, but the pitcher still wants to at least give himself a chance of getting strike three there even if they're okay with missing by a bunch), and CSW% measures what percent of pitches earn a strike (doesn't include foul balls, mind you).

So for this next run, I looked for pitchers with three different pitch types that went three points above the league average CSW% for that pitch type (100 pitches minimum thrown). It's a long list, so I'm going to save us some space and just list the pitchers and the pitch types that qualify without showing the actual numbers.

Pitcher Pitches
Aaron Ashby SL, SI, CH
Aaron Nola FF, SI, CU
Bailey Ober SL, CH, CU
Brandon Woodruff FF, CH, CU
Braxton Garrett SI, SL, CU
Charlie Morton CU, CH, FC
Corbin Burnes CU, CH, FC
Corey Kluber CH, FC, SI
Edward Cabrera SL, CH, CU
Freddy Peralta FF, CH, CU
Gerrit Cole FF, SL, CU
Joe Musgrove FF, SL, FC
JT Brubaker SL, CU, SI
Kyle Wright CU, CH, SL
Luis Garcia FC, SL, CU
Max Scherzer FC, SL, FF, CU
Shane McClanahan SL, CH, CU
Shohei Ohtani FS, SL, CU

The repeats we see here are Woodruff, Burnes, Cole, Garcia, Scherzer, and McClanahan.

More pitchers we aren't surprised to see show up are Nola, Morton, Peralta, Musgrove, and Ohtani.

Some thoughts on the rest:

Ashby: Certainly has some sick stuff, but was so erratic and seems to function more as an opener or an elite piggyback option. He's still just 24 though, so if he can get stretched out a bit and lower the walk rate, he could really blow up quickly (in a good way).

Ober: The big man elevated the SwStr% to a really impressive 13.3% in 2022. He posted strong CSW% marks on the slider (33.5%), changeup (28.6%), and curveball (36.3%). He doesn't have a very good fastball, which could continue to hold him back - but I think there's a lot more ceiling here than he's given credit for.

Garrett: He had a spectacular run at it in July through early August, going for a 37:6 K:BB ratio while taking advantage of some softer matchups. He had a slider, a curveball, and a sinker that beat the league average CSW% by three points. However, the best guess is that he misses the Major League rotation to start the year, which is understandable given his inconsistent performance so far.

Brubaker: He legitimately has one of the league's best sliders (22.6% SwStr%, 33.6% CSW%), and he earned a lot of strikes with the curveball (35.1% CSW%) and sinker (30.0%) as well. There is a lot to like in this arsenal, although at age 29, it's a little harder to believe there's a ton of unrealized upside in his game, especially pitching for a team that has routinely failed to get the best out of their pitchers.

Wright: The breakout 2022 performance is backed up by the arsenal. He put up great CSW% marks on the curveball (37.5%), changeup (28%), and slider (37.3%). He finished the year with a stat line that was much more "good" than "great," but he does seem like a really solid pitcher that gives us a solid floor in 2023. He has four pitches with significant usage, and three of them are quite good. I typically don't want to "buy high" after a breakout year for a pitcher - but I think I'm fine with it in this case.

 

Checking All The Boxes

One last query I ran. I looked for pitchers with multiple pitches qualifying as:

  • above average in SwStr% by at least two points
  • above average in CSW% by at least two points
  • better than the league average in xwOBACON

xwOBACON is expected wOBA on contact. This stat is calculated only using balls in play, so it's a measure of the quality of contact that doesn't give pitchers credit for getting whiffs (which they should get credit for, of course, but that is taken into account here with the criteria for SwStr% and CSW%). There are only seven pitchers here that qualify, here's the table:

Pitcher Pitch SwStr% CSW% xwOBACON
Carlos Rodon Slider 18.3% 32.1% .314
Carlos Rodon Four-Seam 15.0% 33.1% .353
Corbin Burnes Curveball 20.4% 36.5% .257
Corbin Burnes Slider 24.7% 32.2% .330
Freddy Peralta Curveball 19.3% 36.4% .180
Freddy Peralta Changeup 17.7% 27.0% .281
Luis Garcia Slider 21.1% 36.0% .283
Luis Garcia Changeup 16.0% 26.0% .285
Luis Garcia Cutter 19.6% 31.1% .311
Max Fried Curveball 16.6% 37.3% .296
Max Fried Changeup 19.9% 26.0% .300
Shane McClanahan Changeup 24.0% 35.5% .296
Shane McClanahan Four-Seam 12.6% 29.9% .367
Spencer Strider Changeup 17.4% 25.7% .244
Spencer Strider Slider 24.4% 39.0% .266

We already know these guys are fantasy aces, outside of maybe Luis Garcia, who hasn't proven that yet. It was the second straight year that Garcia put up strong numbers on several pitches, the guy's arsenal is really deep and he's able to get strikes with all of his pitches. His 3.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the 24.4% K% were short of elite, but he was once again a solid pitcher and has a really nice floor with how many different offerings he can go to.

Seeing the Spencer Strider changeup appear here is another positive sign for his future, even though he doesn't like to throw that pitch (5% usage), it still performed quite well when he did choose it (although it's likely that those good numbers were just because hitters had no reason to expect it, something to think about).

I would just say that this table gives us even more reason to believe in these pitchers as legitimate fantasy aces with high floors (at least while they're healthy, which is a completely separate question).

There's the analysis. I have the full data file handy if anybody is interested in it, just reach out to me on Twitter. Thanks for reading!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Year In Review




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cole Custer

Is Cole Custer Worth Rostering For Talladega Lineups?
Ty Dillon

Is A Solid Value Option For Talladega DFS Lineups
Cody Ware

Is One Of The Safest Value DFS Options For Talladega Lineups
Hunter Greene

Lights Up Rockies For Eight Strikeouts Saturday
Adael Amador

Collects Three Hits And Home Run No. 1
Jarren Duran

Steals Home And Racks Up Three Hits
Framber Valdez

Tosses Complete Game In A Loss To The Royals
Michael Wacha

Spins Six Shutout Innings
Alan Trejo

Traded To The Rockies
Jackson Chourio

Nearly Hits For The Cycle
Robbie Ray

Records Eight Strikeouts
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Continues To Pitch Well
Seiya Suzuki

Drives In Three Runs
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Strikes Out The Side
Clay Holmes

Tosses Five Scoreless Innings
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Nolan Schanuel

Makes Early Exit On Saturday
Cam Smith

Heading To The Bench
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Logan Evans

To Make MLB Debut On Sunday
Jarred Kelenic

Takes A Seat On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Logan Gilbert

Heading To 15-Day Injured List
Emmanuel Clase

Available As Closer For Game 2
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Michael Busch

Sitting On Saturday Versus Southpaw
Brandon Woodruff

"Really Tired" After Latest Rehab Start
Tyler Fitzgerald

Scratched On Saturday

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round

Texans Trade Up For Woody Marks

Jets Select Arian Smith In Fourth Round

Panthers Select Trevor Etienne 114th Overall

Giants Take CFP Darling Cam Skattebo
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Jacob Markstrom

Ends Losing Spell Friday
Cole Caufield

Collects Two Points In Friday's Win
Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF