Outfield H2H Points Rankings - March Update

March 22, 2018

RotoBaller's updated outfield head-to-head (H2H) points rankings, tiers and auction values for the 2018 fantasy baseball season. Our final OF points ranks.

Welcome back RotoBallers. With the MLB season just a few days away, it's time to update our rankings and analysis to account for injuries, free agent signings, spring training risers/fallers and more. We continue our updated March rankings today with the outfield position.

I, Nick Mariano, will break down each tier and provides analysis for which players might be overvalued or undervalued in fantasy baseball drafts. The position is unique in that many players have eligibility here that you are better off playing elsewhere on the diamond, but the option at OF remains. While the pool runs deep and you can assemble a 5OF corps late, this is not a place to fall behind in drafts. We'll look at all of the bats, big and small, and hit on the notables in each tier for your draft-day benefit and reflection.

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Updated Head-to-Head Points League Rankings: Outfield (March)

Tier 1

Here are your cornerstone OF pieces, with each player offering their own blend of "yeah, I can see him finishing as the No. 1 overall hitter" in their game. Mike Trout is the absolute best with his incredible floor and five-category production. I believe we just saw Mookie Betts' floor thanks to a woeful BABIP, and he still essentially produced a 25/25 season. He should leadoff and benefit from the added power behind him. Charlie Blackmon will continue to crush cold cans in Coors to the tune of 200 R+RBI, with the only question being whether it's from the leadoff spot or lower in the order. Kris Bryant may have disappointed in the power department after winning the N.L. MVP award in 2016, but he's a durable 26-year-old who possesses great contact, power and on-base tools to help you in points leagues. Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton can both blow the world away if they stay on the field (true of anyone, but their durability record instills more trepidation).

Tier 2

J.D. Martinez should be able to put up Big Papi-type numbers at Fenway in this lineup. Ditto when he travels to hitter-friendly havens in Baltimore, Toronto and the Bronx. He's a dreamy second-round pick in all formats. Aaron Judge carries considerable risk, but I'm buying that most of his second-half slump was due to the shoulder issue on top of the bumps and bruises of one's first big-league season. That lineup and hitting environment is too good to pass up, and an OBP north of .400 should counter any negatives from the K rate. Then there's George Springer, who still can't figure out how to steal bases well, but has a 40-homer ceiling and can vie for 700 plate appearances and all the counting stats that come with that volume from atop Houston's lineup.

Tier 3

Asking Marcell Ozuna to repeat his 2017 would require some luck given how his .355 BABIP sat way above his .327 career mark, but if you can settle for a .280ish average then you should enjoy the stats that come from batting behind Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham and Matt Carpenter. I acknowledge that Starling Marte batting third does help his stock, but I'm still very wary of his doing enough to justify a top-40 or 50 pick with such limited pop and the supporting cast.

Tier 4

Christian Yelich might deserve to be in the third tier, but I need to be totally bought into his power stroke being capable of 25 homers to do so. I'm perfectly fine with those willing to buy higher and won't be surprised at all if he dominates in Milwaukee, but the range of outcomes could still reasonably land him outside of the top-50. I don't like A.J. Pollock in the humidor with his durability woes to outperform a guy like Tommy Pham or Byron Buxton, and I'll happily take Lorenzo Cain later. I should probably knock both Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana down a bit more, but I'm okay with them going in the 80-90 range because their upside, should they reach 500-550 PAs, is very solid. Playing time is an issue though, whether it's for health concerns or just pure depth pushing them to the bench every so often.

Tier 5

Tier Five houses some accumulators, as Ender Inciarte and Adam Jones aren't supreme standouts but can deliver healthy totals from high in their batting orders. I'm not sure why everyone else is hanging Whit Merrifield outside of their top-130 given his legit 15HR/30SB skill set. I'm a bit worried about Adam Eaton's body holding up all year after missing 2017, especially with Washington's strong outfield depth, but if you believe he's play 150 games then you should take him at the front of this tier and ignore my cautiousness.

Tier 6

Speaking of caution, I'm completely out on Michael Conforto this year. That injury was so brutal to watch and my habit of adding on at least two weeks to an estimated timeframe for return gives me roughly two-thirds of a season from him. That's great and all if we could safely assume he and his swing are just as they were pre-injury, but I can't tell that. I'll let someone else gamble on this in '18. Adam Duvall is another guy I'm much lower on compared to my colleagues, as I want no real part of the four-man outfield rotation in Cincinnati. A cold spell from Duvall could see him the odd man out to Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker. I don't think any of them get completely edged out, but I'm not drafting a guy with only one real asset (power) inside my top-150 with PT concerns. Getting ABs is my rationale for knocking Ian Happ as well, but those with deeper benches should definitely move him up.

Tier 7

I'm almost 40 picks higher on Marwin Gonzalez than anyone else, but I think Yuli Gurriel's injury is huge for his getting everyday PT until the next guy gets hurt. He really doesn't need anyone to get hurt anyway (and I don't condone rooting for injury) since he's eligible everywhere except pitcher and catcher. You want pieces of Houston's lineup, especially one who can put up a .900 OPS while chipping in nearly 10 steals. I'm also highest on Thin Kyle Schwarber, Shin-Soo Choo and Dexter Fowler. Schwarbs has the power and plate discipline to be a star, though you probably want to sit him if he's playing against a southpaw. Choo and Fowler are boring vets, but Choo possesses a career walk rate of 12 percent alongside 20-homer and 10-steal performance in a lineup that could see him score nearly 100 runs again, while Fowler will be the beneficiary on the other side of the Ozuna talking point thanks to his own 12.7 percent career walk rate, non-zero speed and roughly 15-20 homers in his bat.

Tier 8

It's crazy how far Carlos Gonzalez has fallen, but I'm still in on him before the 200s start to come around. He may be one streaky guy, but this is still a season-long ranking approach and I am okay gambling on the late hot streak that saw him slash .327/.411/.591 from Aug. 2 until the end of the '17 season. I'm here for Eddie Rosario 2.0. I believe in Dave Rowson and the hitting improvements that he helped both Rosario and Jorge Polanco integrate into their game, so reach a round or two if you want. I'm also buying this pair of Clevelanders, with Bradley Zimmer's power/speed ceiling and Jason Kipnis' healthy swing both providing avenues to fantasy production in a star-studded lineup.

Tier 9

I don't want to make Stephen Piscotty's down year all about his ailing mother, but I really do buy into those things affecting play and we've seen him be much better than this. I think a similar thing burnt out Travis Shaw, who was dealing with a sick infant, throughout 2017 for his home games since he visited the hospital often in his non-game time. I worry a bit about Piscotty being stuck in the six-hole, but I can see him being moved up to three quite easily should he reclaim even just his 2016 form. Aaron Hicks is another guy who would really benefit from your having a deeper bench, as he's a force when in the lineup, but it's quite the crowd in New York. Hopefully, Aaron Boone is wise and gets him around 450-500 PAs. Points leaguers won't need to sweat his low line-drive rates as much as roto owners worry over batting average, as Hicks' walk rate soared to over 14 percent last season and should allow him to chip in more readily (let alone be standing on base for when the moonshots get launched behind him).

Tier 10

The CarGo signing really does dampen David Dahl's potential, but I think Dahl is still ahead of Raimel Tapia when it comes to playing time thanks to his defense. The offensive environment is beyond ideal in Denver, but his own health and the playing time hurdles make for a risky proposition. I'd much rather take a steady contributor like Brandon Belt or Kole Calhoun, where you aren't getting some lofty ceiling that you can dream about, but you have a solid stat line that you can practically book. Belt does have the concussion issues, but a walk rate around 15 percent and a steady stream of extra-base hits float his points-league value when on the field. Calhoun should enjoy hitting in a lineup that has no real weak point, and is likely the biggest beneficiary of the right-field wall being trimmed in height.

Tier 11

At this point, you pretty much know you're taking a serious risk. Someone like Jason Heyward could certainly bounce back and it wouldn't surprise us that much, but most of these guys are longshots in some form. I do think that Randal Grichuk will end up crushing it in Toronto, but you can see that some folks disagree with me! I'll this more as an opportunity to stump for the two guys that I ranked but no one else did. Dustin Fowler was a touted prospect in the Yankees system who hit 13 homers and stole 13 bags in just 70 Triple-A contests before getting called up last season. Of course, his season-ending knee injury in the first inning of his MLB debut quieted all that buzz. He's now in Oakland where he'll compete with Boog Powell for playing time in centerfield, but I think he wins out often and puts the power/speed combo on display in the leadoff slot. Albert Almora has the kind of glove that will keep him in the lineup, but without big power or speed he'll just be a solid batting average with good counting stats in a potent lineup. Oh, and you're going to want to get Victor Robles before he hits the Majors.

Tier 12

Nick Markakis remains an afterthought, but his steady bat will continue to churn out doubles as Atlanta's next generation rises around him. You're buying the at-bats here. Mikie Mahtook is another solid asset who should see plenty of playing time in Detroit this year, though he was higher on my list when it looked like he'd lead off more than Leonys Martin. Alas, he has 15/10 talent with an average that could actually help you (.275-.280 range), which is a steal this late.

Tier 13

This is where you'll find the dart throws like the aforementioned Leonys Martin holding down the leadoff slot for Detroit, or Jesse Winker really making a name for himself in that Cincinnati OF rotation, or Yasmany Tomas forcing his way back into a starting lineup (be it in Arizona or elsewhere). Obviously, Jorge Bonifacio can be ignored. I really like Brandon Drury as an early buy in drafts. Let him contribute just like he will for the Yankees: a placeholder early who gets the job done, but when you find a buzzy waiver add (your version of Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar) then you can bench him. Jake Bauers hit 13 homers and stole 20 bases in 575 Triple-A PAs last season and could find himself spelling C.J. Cron at first and DHing often if Brad Miller continues to woo the Mendoza Line.

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