Mid-Round Outfielders - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Targets

March 14, 2023

Analysis of five fantasy baseball outfielders to draft in the middle rounds. Potential 2023 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued OF to target in drafts.

Welcome officially to the 2023 fantasy baseball season! Spring training is in full force, and fantasy managers are gearing up for another exciting season in the MLB. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players that can provide a great return on value. You can start taking calculated risks on emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even players with some playing time concerns out of the gate. The early rounds are critical, and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can make or break your roster.

Today, we're looking at some middle-round outfielders for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority mid-round draft target? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2023 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2023 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more -- available exclusively in our 2023 Draft Kit.

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Teoscar Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners outfielder Teoscar Hernandez was productive once again in 2022. He slashed .267/.316/.491 with 25 HRs, 71 runs, and 77 RBI across 131 games. Hernandez stole just six bases a season after swiping 12, but he still posted 84th-percentile sprint speed and might be more aggressive with Seattle, who have the 10th most stolen bases since 2020. The 30-year-old's batting average dropped from .296 in 2021, largely due to fewer line drives (24.8% line drive rate) and an increased 28.4% strikeout rate. However, Hernandez was one of the best at hitting the ball hard with 96th-percentile average exit velocity, and he still hit .289 despite a 30.4% strikeout rate in 2020. It's a given that he'll go deep a bunch next year.

Hernandez owns a career 14.1% barrel rate and has hit an abundance of fly balls, including a 25.6% mark this season. Fantasy managers might not like the move to T-Mobile park. But the two-time Silver Slugger would have hit 31 long balls if he played all of his games in Seattle, compared to 28 at the Rogers Centre. And with Hernandez's ability to homer, he'll easily collect 80-plus RBI while scoring enough runs in a home run-happy lineup. All told, he'll provide value in multiple categories without hurting others. Hernandez is worth his 72 ADP and is a better option than many outfielders around him.

-- Spencer Seguin - RotoBaller

Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox

The White Sox big man has now failed to play even half of a season in the last two years, adding to his already long history of injury. That looming cloud always makes it tough to draft Eloy, but we do know that there is massive upside in the bat. Last season, Eloy went for a ridiculous .363 xwOBA and a 14.7% barrel rate with just a 22% strikeout rate. He hits the ball so hard and so often, he truly is among the game's best hitters when he's healthy.

The guy has been in the Majors for a long time, but is still just 26 years old and probably has his best seasons ahead of him. There are very few steals in his game, but he checks every other box there is to check. Given a full season of health, Eloy probably hits 35 homers with a batting average close to .300. He really is right there with the Judges and Yordans of the world in terms of power-hitting talent. But the risk won't go away, and you are taking a bit of a leap of faith even with his current ADP of 75.

-- Jon Anderson - RotoBaller

Starling Marte, New York Mets

New York Mets outfielder Starling Marte had another successful season in 2022, slashing .292/.347/.468 with 16 home runs, 63 RBI, and 18 stolen bases in 505 plate appearances. The 34-year-old has always been known for his high averages with the potential for power and speed. While his 18 stolen bases were valuable, they were his lowest total since his rookie season in 2012 (excluding the shortened 2022 season). In terms of power, Marte did not impact the ball hard, with an exit velocity and hard-hit rate both in the bottom 20 percent of baseball to go with a 7.5-degree launch angle. Marte is currently being drafted at pick 78 overall, making him the 19th OF off the board.

Given his age and batted-ball profile, it seems unlikely that Marte will be able to contribute meaningfully in HR. Further, it appears as though his stolen base numbers may be slowing down, while more players should be able to contribute in this category due to the upcoming rule changes. Overall, Marte should be a safe fantasy option, but his ADP seems to be giving him a bit too much credit regarding hypothetical production.

-- Connelly Doan - RotoBaller

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll made his MLB debut last season and is now preparing to be a permanent big-league staple starting in 2023. The former first-round pick tore up the Double- and Triple-A levels before earning the call to Arizona where he slashed .260/.330/.500 with a .293 xwOBA, .333 BABIP, and 130 wRC+ through 32 games. He posted the fastest sprint speed in the league while also accruing 4.9 oWAR and 4.7 dWAR.

In the Diamondbacks' farm system, the 22-year-old consistently demonstrated five-tool ability with his fantastic bat, game-changing speed, and elite glovework. He's going to provide fantasy managers with homers and stolen bases left and right, not to mention the fact that he should be an everyday centerpiece in the Diamondbacks' lineup. Carroll remains an intriguing fantasy option at his ADP of 82.7.

-- Anderson Pickard - RotoBaller

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton offered mixed results during the 2022 season. He played in just 92 games and hit .224, but he went deep 28 times, scored 61 runs, and drove in 51. Despite Buxton's elite speed (92nd-percentile sprint speed), he only stole six bases and now only has 17 steals over his last 192 games. His power is top-tier, as he's posted a 16.4% and 17.9% barrel rate the previous two seasons, respectively, and owns a .576 slugging percentage across his last three campaigns. Buxton's .224 average is concerning, though, and stems from an inflated strikeout rate. The 29-year-old went down on strikes 30.4% of the time and swung at just 66.2% of pitches in the zone, his lowest total in five seasons.

When Buxton did swing, he wasn't successful, whiffing at pitches at a 34.1% rate. His .244 BABIP played a part, but considering his bloated 10.8% career pop-up rate and 27.7% career fly ball rate, he'll need to fix his strikeout issues if he wants to hit above .250. Even if Buxton bounces back in some areas, fantasy managers should have no confidence that he'll play enough. The two-time MVP finisher's 92 contests from this year were his most since 2017, when he played in 140 games, representing his only full season in the big leagues. Drafting Buxton at his ADP of 111 could be rewarding, but the risk is too high for such a fragile player.

-- Spencer Seguin - RotoBaller

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