Key Late-Round Draft Targets - Expert Fantasy Baseball Picks Using EDV

Spring Training is underway, which means we're back with another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered.

We've hit the early and middle rounds, so let's round out the draft board and compare the projected statline of the late fliers via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we investigate undervalued and overvalued players from all over using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning mid-February into March, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and their projection.

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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win

Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, “Player X is a great value at that ADP.”

We've taken historical data and come up with a metric that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts:

1) HR+BA+SB
2) HR+BA
3) SB+HR
4) SB+BA
5) HR
6) SB
7) BA

We know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context. What does it take to be a worthwhile power-heavy bat around pick 200? A power-speed threat near pick 250? A speedster as deep as 400? EDV is not a definitive practice, just as projections are an imperfect science, but it'll sharpen your draft tools.

You can read more about EDV in this Intro To Expected Draft Values article, which was nominated for FSWA's Best Research Article award.

Key Late-Round EDV Players to Target

Before we begin, it’s important to remember that projections typically don’t capture a player’s ceiling or even their 80th-percentile outcome. Last season, Matt Olson led the league in home runs with 54 but my top projection for ‘24 is Aaron Judge at 51. ATC Projections top out at 44 for Judge, with The BAT X at 46. None of us have anyone hitting above .320 even though Luis Arraez just hit over .350 in ‘23.

3/3

Remember projections are not predictions. Its a betting average, not a distribution of what will actually happen.

Just because only 3 players are projected over .300 doesn't mean there won't be considerably more. ATC isn't assuming an actual season shape.

— Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY) March 8, 2024

So, if you’re underwhelmed by projections, especially for late-round players who may not have lots of projectable playing time, just bake in how this approach works. Several late-round bats may not grade out particularly well in this exercise yet remain fine picks, especially knowing each team build is unique.

Knowing that many late-rounders can be poor EDV values does mean we have to respect the ones who still stand out. Let’s assume a 12-team league and check out the late rounds when it comes to hitters!

Ezequiel Tovar’s bat didn’t flourish as those of Troy Tulowitzki and Trevor Story did, but he doesn’t have to become them to outearn a pick near 200. Only 21 years old, Tovar still popped 15 home runs with 11 steals and a .253 batting average. As is tradition, he hit .276 at Coors and .229 on the road, though his .148 road ISO wasn’t far from the home mark (.162).

Regardless, he projects to meet his HR+SB EDV demand around 30 while handily beating the average and R+RBI scores. If I artificially inflate his HRs a bit to nudge him into the HR+SB cohort then he remains a +20 value. Perhaps we get something closer to his age-20, Double-A .932 OPS in ‘24? Don’t overlook the opportunity of leaning into aging and development curves!

Ezequiel Tovar has been tearing it up this spring and looks stronger than he's ever been. Really like him to take a step forward in 2024. https://t.co/GJ77mwfmHR

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) March 5, 2024

How about someone on the other side of the said curve? Starling Marte is a forgotten man after yet another injury-marred campaign that yielded a career-low .625 OPS in 86 games. At only 34 years old, I’m willing to attribute the bulk of his struggles to discomfort due to scar tissue formed during double-groin surgery. How he stole 24 bases in just over half of the season on that is beyond me.

Before last year, Marte had recorded 10 straight seasons with a .275 or higher batting average. He’ll open as NYM’s right fielder and supply us with a fantastic speed option beyond pick 200. EDV shows speedsters here only need to return 10 HR/17 SB while hitting in the .230s to break even. We have Marte tagging 13 HRs with 25 SBs alongside a .268 average. Health is a risk, but that’s more than baked in this late.

Tampa Bay’s penchant for platooning can drive down fantasy interest in their bats beyond the stars. Brandon Lowe used to be one of those. You’ll recall he cracked 39 HRs with a .247/.340/.523 slash line over 149 games in 2021. But then a stress reaction in his back kept him out for over half of 2022. Another back issue and a freak foul ball that broke his right kneecap ruined his ‘23.

BLowe heads into the final year of his contract as one of Tampa’s elders at 29 years old. I know, ancient. Let’s assume he gets a limited run against southpaws, I’m saying ~525 PAs. EDV needs ~30 HR+SB and we have him delivering 35 with a +15 in R+RBI thanks to Tampa’s offense. Any average points above .230 are profit as well (we have him around .240). Consider he hit 21 HRs with seven swipes in 436 injury-affected PAs last year and that his electric ‘21 season wasn’t long ago. Not a bad pick after 250!

Both Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton are going deep in the 200s while boasting ceilings worth an earlier pick. Rizzo was playing through post-concussion syndrome last year and deserves a mulligan. It sucks that he pushed through that and the staff didn’t pick up on it. Stanton made a marked physique change that ideally leads to more durability. It’s nearly free to find out what we’ve got here. We’ll go into more detail in the EDV Power piece.

Now on the IL with post-concussion syndrome, Anthony Rizzo said he went for testing this week that showed his reaction time is slower than the average person.

"That's definitely alarming, especially for what we do for a living."https://t.co/Y4HHIHTk1h

— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) August 3, 2023

Giancarlo Stanton discusses his swing, his intensity, and more, with @JackCurryYES.#YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/XRv3bkP3W3

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) March 10, 2024

Beyond them, Detroit’s Parker Meadows is a power-speed threat worth clicking near pick 300. His 3 HR/8 SB in 37 games as a rookie yields a ~12/30 seasonal pace, but don’t overlook the minors. He provided a 20 HR/17 SB/.275 AVG line over 127 games in ‘22 and then 19/19/.256 in 113 games before his promotion last year.

Meadows had a walk rate above 10% with both of those, something seen in his small-sample MLB line as well. More walks mean more SB opps, which is how he went 8-for-9 on attempts in just 145 PAs. Since 2022, Meadows has been a combined 44-for-49 (~90% success rate) across three levels of play. Comerica isn’t a hitting paradise but it’s no longer a desert.

Even if his average hangs around .240 then that’s not far from the EDV mark. I’m projecting about 35 HR+SB and 120 R+RBI, which surpasses the respective demands of 24 and 94. Perhaps the power tool needs a full MLB season to marinate before a 2025 bloom, but his speed has been ready to play up for a while.

Even Later (300+ ADP) Bats:

-Brendan Donovan doesn’t have an overwhelming fantasy tool but provides modest pop, speed, and batting average.

-Jose Siri has stated he wants to steal 30 bases, but how much of his uppercut-swing power does he need to trade in order to get on first or second base more? His EDV isn't strong, but he's one of the last players to qualify in the HR+SB cohort versus the single-category players.

-Zach Neto’s R+RBI will be limited batting ninth, but can be a 20/10 bat all the same.

-Jake Fraley nearly went 15/20 over just 300 at-bats against right-handed pitching in ‘23. The ceiling isn’t high without everyday play but that’s still damn good.

-Johan Rojas is a deep speedster who shouldn’t drain your batting average.

-Brenton Doyle’s defense keeps him playing, but big K’s mean his ~15 HR/25 SB skill set comes with a very low average.

-Harold Ramirez has hit over .300 with >430 PAs in his last two seasons and will find his playing time in Tampa.

-Ramon Laureano is quietly set for a middle-of-the-order slot as Cleveland’s right fielder. He can post double-digit HR & SB but we’ll be fortunate to get an average north of .235 here.

Summary of Top Late-Round EDV Targets

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