Jon Anderson's "My Guys" For 2021

March 23, 2021

Jon Anderson identifies his five favorite players for the 2021 fantasy baseball season based on breakout potential and draft value.

My name is Jon Anderson and I am a nobody in the fantasy baseball industry. I have no credentials, no huge following on social media. However, I was given a log-in to this website and now I can freely put my words out there for you to read. That's more than nothing, which has given me the confidence to write this post.

Everybody loves a "My Guys" post, right? Fantasy analysts that have spent a lot of time researching, putting their signature next to their favorite players to draft for the upcoming season, giving their readers the chance to just draft them all and blame the analyst if things go awry - what could be better?

So here I go, setting off to put my flag down in the ground on my five favorite players for the 2021 season. I will review these at the end of the year, and if I did a horrible job here I vow to apologize and to never write a post like this ever again.

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George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays

I don't think enough people realize what George Springer has managed to do over the last two seasons. He missed a significant chunk of 2019 with an injury and then 2020 was obviously a very short season as well, which makes his statistical output not look all that impressive just by a quick glance:

Add all of that up and then extrapolate it to a 650-plate appearance season and you have a guy with this line: 111 runs, 44 homers, 107 RBI, 6 SB, .284 AVG, .376 OBP, .576 SLG

This kind of extrapolation is very selective and not a great way to make an argument, but it's far from meaningless. Springer will now hit lead-off in another very strong offense in Toronto, and he gets a homer-friendly home ballpark. The runs and homers are sure to be there, and there's no reason Springer can't give you a strong batting average and awesome OBP as well. There's even a non-zero chance that he steals double-digit bags with his new team.

Really, there is no downside with Springer and his upside is being a top-five fantasy bat this year. All of this and this guy falls outside of the top 50 in a lot of drafts, making him one of my favorite players to draft this year.

Pablo Lopez, Miami Marlins

Mid-90s velocity? Check. A sinker that generates tons of ground-balls? Check. Low walk rate? Check. Strikeout upside? I think so. Lopez had his best go of it in 2020 with career-bests in strikeout rate (24.6%), ERA (3.61), and WHIP (1.19) in 57.1 innings pitched. He made all of those improvements while keeping his walk rate well below average at 7.3%. The numbers for his career do not look like anything like a fantasy ace, but I think there's another level this guy can reach.

I love to see four-seam fastballs with higher swinging-strike rates, and Lopez has that with a 9.4% rate over the last two seasons with his four-seamer that averages 94 miles per hour. Teaming well with that is his 93 mile-per-hour sinker that has generated a 68% ground-ball rate. His best pitch is the changeup, with which he has a 17.4% swinging-strike rate. Those are three very, very useful pitches that mix really well together. Adding on to that is a curveball that, admittedly, does not have the best numbers over the last two. Part of his breakout will be improving on that pitch.

I'm a firm believer in the improved strikeout rate last year and I think he ticks it up, even more, this year. Lopez has shown a pretty solid floor the last two seasons, so even if I'm wrong about the breakout, Lopez is unlikely to really hurt your fantasy team.

My Projection: 180 IP, 11 W, 3.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 26% K%, 8.0% BB%

Michael Pineda, Minnesota Twins

The innings have been all over the place for Pineda with injury issues as well as a long suspension that he finished serving in 2020. In a year where there are lots of questions about teams letting their starters go for 200 innings, Pineda stands out to me as someone who will get to throw as many innings as they can muster. At age 32 and without a contract from the Twins for 2022, I don't see any reason why would they be overly concerned about the future here. Also aiding Pineda is the fact that he has already had a year where he added on 100+ innings from the previous year (he threw just 7.2 innings in 2015 and then managed 175.2 in 2016 with the Yankees).

Innings is only half of the equation. He is going to have to not only clear 170 innings, but also pitch well in those innings. Can he do it?

Well, the 20.4% swinging-strike rate he's posted with his slider over the last two seasons is good news for his strikeout rate. Throwing a slider over 30% of the time (which Pineda does) often manifests in high walk rates, but Pineda has never in his Major League career posted a walk rate above 7%, which is just awesome to see.

His four-seam velocity (averages just 92.5 the last two seasons) and lack of a deep arsenal (he's 84% fastball+slider with a mediocre changeup making up the rest) may lower his strikeout ceiling, but a guy with an elite slider and great command is exactly where I want to be betting my chips late in the draft.

My Projection: 190 IP, 13 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 23% K%, 6.0% BB%

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

If I had been writing this piece for the last five years, I would certainly already have taken a massive L on Buxton. I have been one of the guys constantly predicting fantasy greatness from Buxton, and I don't plan on quitting until he retires.

Buxton is an enigma. Over the last two seasons, he has 430 plate appearances. That's about two-thirds of a full season. In that time he has hit 23 homers, scored 67 runs, driven in 73, and stolen 16 bases. That makes him one of the most productive players in fantasy while he's on the field. The 650 plate appearance pace on those numbers is a ridiculous line of 101 runs, 35 homers, 110 RBI, and 24 steals. If he did that, he might just win an MVP award.

The bad news is that he has never been able to stay on the field, he usually bats very low in the batting order, and he appears to be allergic to walks (he has a .293 on-base percentage over the last two seasons).

While his poor plate discipline numbers make it nearly impossible for him to ever hit .300, the counting stat upside is nearly unmatched. He can hit the ball incredibly hard (max exit velocity of 114 mph), and he's one of the fastest players in the game which helps him leg out a handful of extra singles every year. If he stumbles into some BABIP luck in 2021, a .275 batting average is not out of the question.

Buxton has 30-homer, 30-steal, 100 RBI, and .275 batting average upside. How many players can you say that about? And while I have no reason to project him for 600+ plate appearances given how his career has gone, he is healthy right now so what's the fun of being negative and doubting it? Buxton is my guy.

My Projection: 550 PA, 75 runs, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 22 SB, .265 AVG

Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics

Oh, what could have been. Montas had posted a 26.1% strikeout rate, a 5.8% walk rate, a 2.63 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP before suspension ended his 2019 campaign. He served it out and came back in 2020 looking awesome, throwing absolute gas with his sinker and getting a crazy amount of whiffs with his splitter.

In his first 23 innings of 2020, he struck out 22 batters, allowed just 14 hits and four earned runs. That went for a 1.57 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Then he got hurt, missed a start, and got obliterated to the tune of nine earned runs in his first start after returning. The rest of the way was not pretty either as he posted a 6.35 ERA over his last 28.1 innings. However, he did have 37 strikeouts in those innings, including a 13 strikeout performance to finish the year.

If that bad stretch of starts after the injury really does have all to do with him not being healthy, there's real reason to believe that Montas is actually a fantasy ace that has just experienced really bad luck the last two seasons. He has vowed to throw his splitter more this year, which is a really great idea cause it's one of the best pitches in the game by most metrics. That swing-and-miss pitch teaming up with a 98 mile per hour sinker coming at you makes Montas deadly when he's on his game.

I think he bounces back and proves to be one of the most valuable starting pitchers in the game this year.

My projection: 165 IP, 13 W, 2.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 27% K%, 8.5% BB%

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