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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 3 of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
The baseball season is less than 10% over, and already we are forced to make player decisions. The hardest part is trying to figure out which players will help you for the rest of the season and which are just having a hot streak that will fade faster than a blue Ford in sunlight. And one of the trickiest aspects of making these decisions is we don't have an abundance of data to filter through. You can breathe a little easier knowing the staff at RotoBaller puts out daily articles to help you dominate your season!
Like I mentioned before, we don't have a ton of data to reference on the 2021 season as many of the underlying metrics still need more time to stabilize before we can make exact assumptions. However, we can look at a player's history and how they perform in the young season.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or just want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Players to "Buy"
Tommy Pham, San Diego Padres
We are only 12 games into the season, but Tommy Pham's fantasy production looks like yesterday's garbage. In this case, one man's trash could be your treasure. A batting average south of .130 with no HRs and only one RBI screams trade me, bench me, or drop me. That is exactly why we are targeting Tommy Pham as a buy candidate.
Feast your eyes on his Statcast slider. The profile does not indicate a player with such poor results. It actually suggests a batter, like Pham, with a very balanced profile that should be putting up double-digit HRs and stolen bases.
An unsuspecting manager rostering Pham might be looking to upgrade shortly. This is likely the bottom-level of production of Pham's season. And with Fernando Tatis Jr. returning shortly, the offense will have that extra juice that made it a top-five offense in 2020. Buy now and ride out the rest of 2021 with a potential top-50 player in the MLB.
Manuel Margot, Tampa Bay Rays
Manuel Margot is flashing power+speed skills that need to be examined. His hard-hit% is in the 87th percentile, and his sprint speed sits at the 85th percentile. However, have those translated into results in the box scores? Not so much. Through his first 29 plate appearances, the Rays outfielder has yet to record a stolen base and only has one HR. He has been slightly productive by tossing in three runs and five RBI. This start is likely making him someone's fourth or fifth outfielder.
A great reason to pick him up is his expected stats are glowing. A 122 wRC+ means he is 22% better than league-average in runs created. His .340 wOBA and .222 ISO back it up. These are, of course, small samples that can swing rapidly more goes on.
All combined, Margot is hitting the ball much like any other year, striking out at only a 17% clip, and getting on base around his career average. However, the production is not in full effect. The Rays know the type of player they have and continue to plant him in the middle of their lineup. Scoop him up now at a discounted price!
Jed Lowrie, Oakland Athletics
Jed Lowrie is back with Oakland and turning heads quickly. The question is, are we buying it? The answer is a resounding yes. In the previous two seasons with Oakland(2017-2018), he showcased a 120 and 124 wRC+ in a full-time role. After those useful seasons, he spent two forgotten years with the New York Mets due to injury. In short, he has shown a window of production to back up his on-the-field play.
Many of the underlying skills are right there with those productive seasons, and the expected stats seem to love him. He boasts the 93rd percentile in xBA, 91st in xwOBA, and 89th in xSLG%. Even his 84th percentile chase rate should help keep his early production stable. Lowrie is not the massive power bat that is going to put up 30 HRs. He is more of a 15-20 HR player that will get you a solid batting average and he can be a stud for OBP leagues, as shown by his 12.5% walk rate.
Second base is a shallow position, and improving there should help your team immensely. Lowrie is getting planted at the 3-hole on most days with sluggers like Matt Chapman and Matt Olson behind him. That means plenty of runs can pile up. He may be off to a hot start, but the production should continue to flow. Make a move and get him before another manager feels they can't move him.
Players to "Sell"
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Forever we have waited for Byron Buxton to stay healthy and use his exceptional skillset to produce. Through nine games, Buxton is laying waste to every pitcher. He touts five long balls, one stolen base, and a spectacular .469 batting average. Is he finally living up to his potential? Not necessarily.
His batted ball quality is right in line with his career marks, except that Buxton trades popups for fly balls. That's a little sketchy when you consider that since 2015 his popup rate is over 9.4%, while in 2021, it's only 3.8%. Beyond that, his barrel rate is well above 26%, while his career-best is 13.5%. Part of the reason he might be hitting the ball harder is better plate discipline.
Well, his plate discipline is not all that much better than in the past. He is still chasing pitches at a 37% rate, which is nearly 10% more than league-average and higher than his career line. My speculation meter is going off like crazy because even with a ton of swing and miss in his profile, the strikeout rate is at a career-low 16.7%.
There is usually a manager or two that was stung by the Buxton injury bug in the past. I do hope for fantasy baseball's sake that Buxton can stay healthy. But for now, it's best to trade him to an unsuspecting manager that doesn't realize he will likely regress quite a bit. My suggestion, try to get one of the outfielders in the buy section plus another player.
Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
Let's start by listing some of Ryan McMahon's flaws that stop him from being a breakout over the past few seasons. He hits way too many ground balls, as he has a career rate that's nearly 50%. Also, throughout his career, he carries a 30% strikeout rate. These deficiencies have led to a .240/.317/.436 slash line and .753 OPS. That kind of stat line is nearly a bench bat, and this is a player that plays half of his games in Coors Field!
I shall point out the obvious here as we do with most Rockies hitters - the home/road splits. In 16 at-bats on the road, McMahon's batting average is .188 with a .562 OPS. Flip over to his splits in Coors Field(.360 batting average, 1.305 OPS). Sure, he will still have home games in Coors Field, but without a 6-for-6 night that included three homers, his home split is only one HR with a 3-for-19 (.158 BA). Droppable!
He is off to a scorching start that will cool as he starts hitting his usual ground balls and striking out a third of the time. Target a team that is light on power, maybe whoever lost Eloy Jimenez or has other under-performing power bats.
Wilson Ramos, Detroit Tigers
Talk about found money here! Wilson Ramos was going virtually undrafted in 12-team leagues but is crushing baseball to start the year. A catcher hitting about .200 feels like a win in any league, except Ramos isn't just doing that. He also leads the majors in home runs. Just like we all planned he would.
The major reason to move Wilson Ramos is the unlikelihood that he can sustain these results. Six of his nine hits are home runs. That's not going to continue. One of the best predictive stats for home runs is barrel percentage. Allow me to read off his barrel percentage from 2015-2021: 6.3%, 7.4%, 8.6%, 7.2%, 4.7%, 7.1%, and 28.6%. It doesn't take a Where's Waldo? master to spot the outlier there.
Every hard-hit metric is not just slightly over-performing. It is smashing them! The catcher position lacks viable options, but Ramos is not this type of player. We have seen too much of him assume this is the new normal. Several catchers will produce like Ramos for the rest of the season. Grab them and move Ramos at his peak value.
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