Eric Cross' Dynasty Notes - Eury Perez, Taj Bradley, Blake Snell, and More!

June 24, 2023

Eric Cross' fantasy baseball dynasty news and notes analysis for Week 1 (2023). Notable prospects and risers/fallers for longer-term fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.

In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."

So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.

In this week's report, I'll be discussing a ton of exciting young pitchers, resurgent veteran arms, and much more!

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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes

Is Eury Perez Already a Dynasty Ace?

Typically, this question is preposterous to ask when the pitcher is a 20-year-old rookie that is only eight starts into his Major League career. But when the pitcher is as talented as Eury Perez is and has performed as well as Perez has, the question needs to be asked.

Through his first eight starts, Perez has posted a stellar 1.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with an 8.6% walk rate and 27.8% strikeout rate. In fact, Perez is coming off the best start of his career, firing six shutout innings with nine strikeouts against Toronto on Tuesday, and has a 0.33 ERA over his last five outings. Yes, that's one earned run over 27 innings.

When it comes to the ace eye test, Perez passes that with flying colors. Perez's 97.5 mph fastball has been solid but not great so far when it comes to the metrics, but all three of his secondary offerings have been nearly unhittable so far.

Perez will use all four of his pitches to both right-handed and left-handed batters as well, which is something I've always found encouraging.

There's a reason why Perez has been considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball for a couple of years now, and he's putting that immense upside on full display right now in the Majors. But where does he fall within the dynasty SP landscape? And how high can he climb?

As of now, I'm safely putting Spencer Strider and Shane McClanahan above him as they've separated themselves from the pack as the top tier. After that, I would still take Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, and Zac Gallen ahead of Perez, but after those five is where the discussion begins. For me, Perez is in that next tier along with Framber Valdez, Brandon Woodruff, Luis Castillo, Cristian Javier, and maybe George Kirby and Joe Ryan.

For now, he's currently behind Valdez, Castillo, and Javier in my rankings, which would put him 9th among starting pitchers overall. And honestly, Perez could easily jump into the second tier by the end of the season.

Taj Bradley on the Rise

Another exciting rookie pitcher rising up dynasty rankings right now is Taj Bradley. Of all pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this season, only Spencer Strider has a higher K-BB% than Bradley's 27.2% clip right now. As talented as Bradley is, I never imagined this would be the case when the season began.

Through his first 10 starts, Bradley has recorded a 3.86 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 34.3% strikeout rate, and a 7.3% walk rate. He's been pitching better than the 3.86 (which is still solid) ERA would indicate too as Bradley also has a 3.25 xERA, 2.68 FIP, 2.74 xFIP, and 2.95 SIERA. On top of that, Bradley has a whiff rate above 23% on all four offerings, including 42.2% on the changeup.

If I could nitpick one area, it would be Bradley's command thus far and the batted ball profile against him, including a 42% hard-hit rate and 32.8% line drive rate. The command on his curveball and changeup have been inconsistent and Bradley has been leaving his cutter over the heart of the plate a bunch. But hey, it hasn't bitten him yet and this is just me nitpicking.

While Bradley doesn't possess the same level of upside that Perez does, the upside still puts him in the top-25 dynasty SP discussion longterm. The arrow is definitely pointing up here.

Blake Snell Dominating

Does any pitcher pull at the heartstrings more than Blake Snell? After a frustrating first nine starts that had his ERA up to 5.40, Snell has flipped the switch and only allowed two earned runs total over his last six starts spanning 36 innings. And in each of his last three starts, Snell has recorded double-digit strikeouts with only three walks combined.

The only real difference in Snell's arsenal lately is that he's throwing fewer four-seamers and more changeups, but the real difference is that he's simply locating the four-seamer better and it's not getting creamed as it was over the first month and a half of the season. On top of that, in June so far, Snell has a whiff rate above 65% on both breaking balls and nearly 50% on the changeup.

We've seen him do this before though. Snell will look like a fantasy ace at times, but the proverbial clock always strikes 12 and this carriage turns back into a pumpkin. If you're like me and expect the extreme ups and downs that come along with rostering Snell, right now would be an ideal time to sell high. But in this instance, I'm actually more so looking to hold right now. Snell has a career 3.92 ERA in the first half and 2.68 in the 2nd half. If he's getting into 2nd-half Snell mode a bit early this year, I'm all for it.

Dynasty Quick Hits

Welcome back Chase DeLauter. After missing the first two and a half months of the season, the 2022 first round pick returned to action this week and cranked his first home run on Thursday. Yes, it was just at the complex level, but it's just good to have him back in the lineup. For dynasty purposes, I'm considerably high on DeLauter. He was a tad undervalued in FYPDs last year due to the "didn't play at a big-name college" stigma, but the talent is there for DeLauter to develop into an impact fantasy bat given his blend of power, speed, and on-base abilities. He's one of my top dynasty buys right now.

The same can be said for Dylan Lesko on the pitching side of things. Lesko returned to the mound in game action this week after missing more than a year while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The upside here is immense and Lesko could develop into a top-10 pitching prospect sooner rather than later. Lesko possesses a plus to double-plus fastball and changeup combination with a slider that has the makings of being an above-average pitch. On top of that, Lesko has shown advanced feel and command for his age. The price tag will likely never be lower, so now is the time to buy in dynasty leagues.

Hopefully you were able to buy low on Jordan Lawlar or Emmanuel Rodriguez when they were struggling earlier this season, because both have come back strong over the last few weeks. Strikeouts were an issue for both of these top prospects to open the 2023 season, but since May 25th, each has trimmed their strikeout rates dramatically and are once again performing at elite levels.

It's funny what will happen to a hitter when they're not 100% healthy. Case in point, Michael Harris II. It was obvious that Harris wasn't 100% healthy earlier in the season and the stat line followed suit. But over the last two weeks, Harris is getting back to the player we saw last year that rose to fantasy prominence with a near 20/20 rookie campaign. In his last 56 plate appearances, Harris is slashing .463/.464/.778 with five doubles, four home runs, and three steals. In addition, the quality of contact metrics have increased (46% HH, 12% BRL) and he's still showing elite contact abilities. Just don't count on him for a ton of walks. Harris is still a top-25 dynasty player and should be valued as such.

Recently, I put out a tweet noting that there only four hitters that ranked in the 90th percentile or better for hard-hit rate and whiff rate. Kansas City Royals rookie Maikel Garcia was one of them. Garcia has a 50.8% hard hit rate, 18.1% chase rate, and an 18.1% whiff rate so far along with 10 steals and a .287 AVG. If he can start lifting the ball more, there's a sneaky-good fantasy asset ready to appear. And given how low his perceived value is right now, it's an ideal time to buy in dynasty leagues.

Braxton Garrett has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two months. In his last eight starts (45 innings), Garrett has recorded a .2.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 4.7% walk rate, and a 36.7% strikeout rate. There is zero flukiness in this performance either as hitters are hitting just .176 with a .120 ISO off Garrett during this time and his FIP is 2.05. Garrett has a 56.9% whiff rate on his slider over this time and he's been using the cutter more which has a .100 BAA, .150 SLG, and .107 wOBA allowed this month. Is Garrett going to continue performing at this level? Probably not, but there's a lot to like in this profile right now.

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