RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers to another edition of tiers and rankings for the 2023 season. It is the perfect time to enthrall you guys with some fantasy preparation as we creep toward Spring Training. This time around, I present you with the top 75 outfielders as displayed in the corresponding chart.
I personally have not had the opportunity to compose these rankings, but our elite analysts at RotoBaller do quite the job. Nick Mariano, Jon Anderson, and Ben Rosener are credited with assessing this year's rankings. Check out all of their work here at RotoBaller and give it a read!
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Early Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings for 2023
Our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season, and Ariel Cohen was the top ranker in 2019. In addition, ATC Projections by Ariel Cohen have been the #1 most accurate projections system for the past three years. Be sure to follow their updated rankings and projections all season long!
Tier 1 - MVP Levels
This year's pool of outfielders seems to be the most prestigious class heading into the season. Tier 1 comprises the reigning MVP- Aaron Judge, and two former ROY winners in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez. Yes I know, Judge is a former ROY himself. Acuna and Rodriguez are certainly on a trajectory to obtain at least one MVP which largely sums up this tier. Julio receives the highest rank out of the aforementioned two, and it doesn't surprise me that Steamer projects a 5.6 fWAR. He is just 19 days removed from turning 22 years of age, and the raw talent that we saw on display last season is an indicator of a monstrous sophomore year.
Acuna Jr. is next on the list, but as a biased Yankees fan, the least I can do is support the newest captain of the Bronx. It is difficult to gauge how Judge will respond to his historic season and Steamer clearly believes that the odds for Judge to repeat are improbable. Steamer gives Judge a 6.8 fWAR with 43 HRs and you should certainly join the Judge bandwagon if you think those numbers are practical.
Would you roll the dice on Acuna Jr. despite his inability to stay healthy? He is one of the best out there when he's not plagued by injuries. Last is Kyle Tucker, who is sort of a borderline Tier 1 but has a compelling balance of speed and raw power. He's projected to hit 33 HRs with 19 swipes. I'm loving that combination.
Tier 2 - Still Elite
Now we have entered the "elite no matter what" class. Tier 1 is solely designed for the four most talented players, but Tier 2 is a diverse bunch with a subtle dropoff from Tier 1. Yordan Alvarez gets the honors for Tier 2 and we all know what he's capable of. He was on a steady pace to be crowned AL MVP but his season got derailed when he suffered multiple hand injuries that jeopardized his MVP campaign. Though Alvarez still managed to compile a 1.019 OPS and Steamer seems to fully corroborate a similar line in 2023, Steamer gives him a 5.5 fWAR, which could be realistic if he makes a few more plate appearances.
Next comes Mookie Betts and although I may not enjoy watching him considering that he is a former Bostoner, I would fully endorse him as a fantasy player. He is a former MVP which certainly ups the ante, and he seems to constantly be in contention for an MVP. His 11.23 ADP is slightly lower than Soto, but the so-called "down year" that Soto had may veer people away from his current ADP.
Finally, Mike Trout. He's the best out there when he is not pestered by his injury-prone body. It would be a commodity at this point to see Trout surpass the 500-plate appearance mark. Let's get him healthy so we can see some MVP-caliber action.
Tier 3 - Young Phenoms
We've got a plethora of options in Tier 3 that are more than sufficient for your outfield vacancies. We've got a perennial talent in Fernando Tatis Jr., who has dealt with some legal issues after testing positive for substance use, and Michael Harris, a rookie sensation with a ton of upside. Transitioning to the pros as a highly-touted prospect, Harris has certainly lived up to the hype. Get a load of this. Steamer projects the kid to amass a 4.3 fWAR. That's certainly not something to pass up on.
Tatis Jr. gets the "could have been" award for 2022, but his ADP is quite high. As of now, it sits at 20.84, but that could change as we get closer to the season. He already missed a chunk of time due to a broken wrist, and his fantasy value is largely contingent on his health. Then we turn the tables to Luis Robert, who has this innate characteristic of being injury-prone. He's had just one season with 400 plate appearances, but NFBC still grants him a 48.96 ADP. Maybe don't draft him there.
Randy Arozarena and Cedric Mullens sort of fall under the same class. They've both got blazing speed along with a comforting amount of raw power. There is a nine-point ADP gap between the two, with Arozarena at 40.46 and Mullins at 49.67. Although they are given a nearly identical fWAR from Steamer, Arozarena clocks in at a 2.8 fWAR, with Mullins 0.3 ahead. Regardless of the projections, it wouldn't hurt to grab them early and secure a dependable outfielder.
Tier 4 - High Upside
Tier 4 is reserved for a very select group of players. They've got loads of upside and can catch fire in a jiffy. Kyle Schwarber, Adolis Garcia, Tesocar Hernandez, and Daulton Varsho are just what you're looking for. Schwarber laced 46 HRs and led the National League, but one drawback is his league-leading 200 strikeouts. I ensure you that you'll get 30+ homers from Schwarber but don't expect an increased batting average. Steamer projects a 28.8 strikeout rate with 38 HRs and a 2.6 fWAR. Not too shabby if you prefer a heavier bat.
Garcia is a classic example of a 25-25 fantasy bargain. He was surprisingly stood up in the All-Star game, but he seems to be improving by the year. If he can increase his average and maintain his HR count, I would even bump up his current 60.44 ADP. You'll be surprised how much value you can squeeze out of Garcia. Hernandez isn't as much of a speedster, but his power is equivalent, if not more valuable, than Hernandez's. He compiled a .807 OPS with 25 bombs and a 129 wRC+ in 2022. I wouldn't be shocked if he matches those numbers in 2023.
Last, but certainly not least, is Varsho, who is evolving into a fantasy sensation. He's versatile and can be platooned behind the plate and in the outfield, and that's why everyone has been flocking over him. The 26-year-old smacked 27 bombs and finished with a .745 OPS. I would love to see a larger offensive output on Varsho's end this season. Steamer gives him a 3.3 fWAR and 26 HRs, and his defensive upside brings it all home.
Tiers 5, 6, 7 - The Rest
The last three tiers that I will be discussing comprise 12 players who all bring something tangible to the table. Starling Marte put up promising numbers for the Mets after amassing a .814 OPS. I had hoped to see a little more out of George Springer and Eloy Jimenez and maybe we will get the healthy version of Jimenez in 2023. Springer, on the other hand, just needs to increase his triple-line numbers and I would fully endorse a few level-ups on his current 82.68 ADP.
Corbin Caroll has shown a ton of upside and it wouldn't amaze me if he lives up to the hype. Bryan Reynolds, Kris Bryant, and Tyler O'Neill are all viable options but that's where it gets tricky. Can Masataka Yoshida match Steamer's 3.8 fWAR?
Byron Buxton seems to be glued to the injured list, but if he can roam the 500 PA threshold, you can expect him to make an impact. MJ Melendez and Seiya Suzuki are both entering their sophomore years and we have seen enough production to deem them as "worthwhile." Taylor Ward is also a solid alternative if he can mirror the likes of his 2022 campaign.
That's a wrap, folks! Good luck next season and make sure to check out all of the RotoBaller content!
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