RADIO
It took the better part of four months, but baseball's offseason is finally starting! Eric Hosmer signed a massive contract to vacation play baseball in San Diego, while Jake Odorizzi was traded to the Minnesota Twins for a ham sandwich and a few extra baseballs.
One of these players is capable of turning a substantial profit in 2018 fantasy leagues, and it's not the one who just inked a nine-figure deal.
Here's a closer look at Odorizzi and Hosmer's fantasy value for the upcoming season.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Jake Odorizzi (SP, MIN) ADP: 288.8
Odorizzi was roughly a league average pitcher in his 143 1/3 IP last season, posting a 4.14 ERA and 21% K%. His xFIP (5.10), BABIP allowed (.227), and extreme fly ball tendency (47.3% FB% last year, 45% for his career) have convinced fantasy owners that the season was a total fluke, making him an afterthought on most draft boards.
Expecting regression to the mean is one of the trademarks of this column, but Odorizzi may have landed in the perfect situation to keep it up. His extreme fly ball profile, combined with a slightly plus IFFB% (9.3% last year, 9.6% career), allow him to consistently post BABIPs under .300 (.269 career). His .227 BABIP may increase a little, but it won't be as bad as some are expecting.
His new team may also serve to mitigate any regression. The 2017 Tampa Bay Rays finished second in Statcast's Outs Above Average metric with 23. Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins topped that mark by himself with 25 OAA, helping his team finish first in the league with 31 total. Tampa Bay's superlative outfield defense likely played a role in Odorizzi's .067 BABIP on flies (and .528 on line drives), but his new team is even better.
Odorizzi allowed slightly more line drives last year (22.1% LD%) than he has over his career (21.3%), giving him room for positive regression. He'll likely need this to offset the deficiencies of Minnesota's infield, where the 3B tandem of Miguel Sano and Eduardo Escobar combined for -10 Defensive Runs Saved, 2B Brian Dozier was below average (-4), and SS Jorge Polanco was roughly average (-1). Joe Mauer has an excellent first baseman's mitt (seven DRS), but it's not enough to cover for everybody else.
By contrast, the Rays supported Odorizzi capably last year. Third baseman Evan Longoria compiled 11 DRS in his last season as a Ray, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria added six more, and 1B Logan Morrison was solid (one). Brad Miller wasn't great at second (-4), but otherwise the infield was strong. This helped Odorizzi best his career .240 BABIP on ground balls with a .224 mark, but it may not have been entirely the work of his friends.
Odorizzi saw his grounders allowed get scorched in 2016, averaging 86.6 mph off of the bat. That number fell to 81.8 mph last year, suggesting that Odorizzi was doing a much better job controlling the quality of contact against him. It remains to be seen how sticky this will be, but there's at least some hope that he can repeat his 2017 BABIP on ground balls.
Many fly ball pitchers have an ability to limit damage on airborne baseballs, but Odorizzi's 15.5% HR/FB last season does not reflect this. He has historically been better (11.1% career HR/FB), and contact quality metrics suggest that he just ran into some bad luck last year. His average airborne exit velocity allowed decreased from 93.5 mph in 2016 to 91.9 mph last year, while his rate of Brls/BBE improved slightly (8.4% to 8.2%). Fly ball pitchers give up a few homers, but Odorizzi should be better in 2018.
Minnesota's outfield defense and Odorizzi's fly ball profile are his best traits, but the 28-year old's stuff offers some upside as well. His fastball played elite last year (12.5% SwStr%, 54.9% Zone%), but it lacks the elite spin rate typically associated with such a pitch (2,287 RPM). Still, any repeat could go a long way toward boosting his K%.
Odorizzi also introduced a cutter (7.4% usage in 2016, 16.5% last year) that proved very capable on balls in play (.188/.263/.471) even if its K% numbers weren't great (11.9% SwStr%, 40.3% Zone%, 25.5% chase). His split allows him to induce ground balls when needed (47.9% GB%), but its K% marks are also lacking (11.4% SwStr%, 37.4% Zone%, 37.6% chase). Odorizzi mixes in the occasional slider and curve, but both are more show pitches than legitimate weapons in his repertoire.
Odorizzi is moving to a division where three teams are rebuilding, presenting plenty of favorable matchups. He seems likely to serve as a streamable fantasy starter that is never far enough away from a usable week to drop, making him a name to remember toward the end of deeper drafts. You don't want to start him every time, but he'll help more than hurt if used judiciously.
Verdict: Champ
Eric Hosmer (1B, SD) ADP: 77.3
Hosmer was great to own in 2017, as he put up a .318/.385/.498 line with 25 HR and six stolen bases (one CS). Unfortunately, almost none of it appears sustainable moving forward.
Let's start with his league average power. Hosmer wouldn't know what a fly ball was if he tripped over one, posting a FB% of just 22.2% last year. His fantasy season was saved by a 22.5% HR/FB, but his average airborne exit velocity (94.2 mph vs. 95.4 in 2016) and rate of Brls/BBE (6.8% vs. 9.4% in 2016) both declined. He also pulled fewer of his flies (10.8%) than he has over his career (15.1%), meaning that all three of his power indicators are trending in the wrong direction.
Some analysts are expecting Hosmer's numbers to improve after escaping Kansas City, and San Diego was a slightly better ballpark for left-handed HR according to the newly updated FanGraphs ballpark factors (96 vs. 93). However, neither park is great and Hosmer already hit more homers at home (16) than on the road (nine) in 2017. Furthermore, the site's five year averages suggest that Kansas City is better for overall scoring (102) than San Diego (95). Essentially, Hosmer is exchanging one bad park for another.
His .318 batting average takes some of the sting out of power regression, but the .351 BABIP it's based upon is equally likely to decline (.316 career). Hosmer murders his ground balls (87.4 mph last year, 90.2 in 2016) and boasts an above average Statcast Sprint Speed (27.5 ft./sec), but last year's .259 BABIP on the ground (.251 career) was not the primary reason for his success.
Instead, he crushed his career BABIPs on both fly balls (.186 vs. .161) and line drives (.703 vs. .663). His LD% (22.2%) also exceeded his career number (20% LD%). Considering the above decline in airborne contact quality and the random fluctuations LD% is prone to, neither should be expected moving forward.
This is not to suggest that Hosmer is a completely lost cause. His airborne contact quality remains strong enough to produce sustainable power seasons if he hits more fly balls, and he seldom strikes out (15.5% K%, 9.3% SwStr% last year). Heck, he even has enough speed to swipe 10 or more bags! However, his current ADP takes growth as a given when the 28-year old has resisted change in the past. Let somebody else pay a premium.
Verdict: Chump
