Prime-Age Outfielders Set to Break Out for Fantasy Baseball

Elliott Baas evaluates four outfielders between 26-29 years old that could break out in 2022 for fantasy baseball. These hitters are draft sleepers based on ADP.

In modern baseball, we expect players to perform the instant they hit the majors, or shortly afterward. If the player hasn't broken out by age 25, we assume he will never break out. That wasn't always the case, however, as we used to view a player's mid-to-late-20s as the crucial time for a step forward. The ages of 26-29 presented the perfect combination of peak athleticism ahead of age decline, and adequate MLB experience for a player to learn the ins and outs of the game.

In this piece, we're breaking down three outfielders in the age 26-29 range that look like candidates for post-hype fantasy baseball breakouts in 2022. These aren't the sexy sleepers that skyrocket up draft boards at an astronomical cost. Rather, these are some under-the-radar options to consider for players in their mid-to-late-20s.

ADP data is taken from NFBC and is current as of 1/26/2022.

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Willie Calhoun, Texas Rangers

Age 27, ADP 405.44

Seasoned fantasy players might roll their eyes seeing the name Willie Calhoun in yet another breakout article. Those of us who believe in Calhoun feel like we’re stuck in a Samuel Beckett play, but instead of waiting for Godot, we’re waiting for Willie to finally put everything together. In defense of the Calhoun believers, the raw hit skills are just so darn good he’s impossible. A big upside is lurking in this bat, and with a revamped Texas lineup and prayers for good health, 2022 may be the year for Calhoun to emerge as a regular fantasy contributor.

Part of the reason we feel so weary hearing about a Calhoun breakout is that he’s been on the fantasy radar forever. He was one of the top prospects in a loaded Dodgers’ system in the mid-2010s and was the key piece the Rangers got back for Yu Darvish in 2017. Scouts raved over Calhoun’s combination of strong contact skills, solid power, and professional plate disciple at a young age. Those plate skills combined with the prospect of playing at a then-hitter-friendly Globe Life Park gave Calhoun a lot of helium in the fantasy community, but injuries and long slumps have deflated this hype balloon. Even considering those drawbacks, Calhoun still possesses the same skills that made us fall in love with him so long ago.

Let’s talk about Willie Calhoun’s balls. His balls-in-play that is, because Calhoun’s were pretty darn good last season. He raised his line drive rate to 20.7%, his average exit velocity to 90.2 MPH, and his hard-hit rate to 41.9%, all career-highs (not counting his rookie season where he saw 37 PA). This quality of contact gave him a .275 xBA compared to just a .250 BA, and the 25-point gap between his actual batting average and expected batting average was 19^th-highest among qualified hitters. 19^th-highest doesn’t seem too egregiously unlucky on its face, but Calhoun was one of two players in the top-20 with an actual batting average of .250 or higher, along with Yan Gomes.

Most of the players with large gaps between their actual and expected batting average posted downright pitiful numbers. We’re talking about people like Jackie Bradley Jr., who hit .163 but had a .198 xBA. Even if he was unlucky, he still wasn’t good, whereas Calhoun is displaying some nice potential in these Statcast numbers. Furthermore, his aberrative 6.7% HR/FB ratio was exceptionally low for a player who hits the ball as hard as Calhoun, and we could reasonably expect it to gravitate towards the league average of 13.6%, if not higher.

While Calhoun’s quality of contact is improving, one skill that he’s always possessed is the ability to put the wood to baseball. Calhoun wields a strong stick, but what’s especially impressive is his 12% strikeout rate and 85.5% contact rate last season, ranking him ninth and 21^st in the league, respectively (min. 250 PA). The fact that Calhoun put the ball in play this much with decent authority and wound up with a .267 BABIP last season was a travesty. Sure, at 5’8” and kindly listed at 200 pounds, he’s not exactly Byron Buxton on the basepaths, but it would be hard to imagine his BABIP remaining that low for another season. He does a good job of spreading the ball around and isn’t that shiftable, so expect growth in batting average going forward.

Looking at just the numbers, it’s easy to feel confident in this bat, but Calhoun’s injury history may still scare fantasy managers away. He’s played in just 104 games between 2020-2021 and has never played more than 83 games in a single season, making him hard to trust as a stalwart in our lineups. However, Calhoun’s health concerns fall more into the acute category than chronic. He was unfortunate enough to get hit in the face by a pitch in spring training of 2020, suffered a fractured jaw, and broke his arm in 2021 after being hit by a Kris Bubic fastball. I didn’t know Bubic threw with enough force to break a human bone, but Calhoun wound up on the wrong side of another HBP and was shelved in June. Maybe Calhoun crowds the plate and opens himself up to being hit by pitches, but it’s more likely that’s he’s suffered plain rotten luck over the last two years, preventing him from remaining on the field.

He’s slated to DH for Texas this coming season, which should reduce his injury risk. The fact that’s he’s struggled to stay on the field raises his injury risk inherently, but Calhoun’s past injuries seem fluky and we should fear drafting him for injury reasons.

Altogether, Calhoun boasts good plate skills and has made improvements to his quality of contact. He should have the chance to hit high in the Rangers’ batting order, meaning he’ll benefit greatly from the new additions of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Things are really falling into place for Calhoun, and this looks like it could finally be the year Willie Calhoun becomes a regular fantasy contributor.

Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals

Age 26, ADP 257.81

Unlike Calhoun, Lane Thomas is a name that was not on fantasy radars prior to 2021. The 26-year-old was something of an afterthought prior to last season. Originally a fifth-round pick by Toronto back in 2014, Thomas was traded to the Cardinals in exchange for international signing money in 2016, and traded again in 2021 in exchange for Jon Lester, telling you just how much his previous organizations valued him. Thomas flourished after falling into a near everyday role in Washington, however, and hit .270/.364/.489 with seven homers and four steals in 206 PA. That playing time should earn him a crack at an opening day job next season, and Thomas has all the tools to be an all-around productive fantasy player.

Because Thomas is such an unknown and had zero prospect hype, you’ll probably need a little convincing before you buy into him. For the dismissive among you, I point to one skill no fantasy manager can ignore in 2022, which is speed. Thomas ranked in the 93^rd percentile of sprint speed last season and swiped six bags in 77 games, four of which came with the Nationals in 44 games. Washington has shown a willingness to let fast players run, as we’ve seen with Trea Turner and Victor Robles in past seasons, so if Thomas can be efficient and string together some early success on the bases, he could have a standing green light to run.

He’s penciled in as the leadoff hitter for Washington at the moment and barring any free agency moves or trades, Thomas is far and away their best option to start things off next year, giving him plenty of steal and scoring opportunities. Approximately 12-15 steals seem like a sure thing for Thomas next season, and he has a good chance to break 20 if given the opportunity.

Okay, so this dude can run. So what? So can Dee Strange-Gordon and nobody wants to draft him. Why should I buy into this guy, you might be thinking. For starters (or relievers), Thomas absolutely cranked the ball last season, with an average exit velocity of 91 MPH, a 12.3-degree launch angle, and a 45.7% hard-hit rate. With batted ball numbers this good, it’s surprising that he had just a .232 xBA and .319 xwOBA in 2021. It’s normally rather simple to reverse engineer batted ball numbers to determine how Statcast’s expected stats were calculated, but not in this case. With this average exit velocity, launch angle, and Thomas’s speed, he could certainly outperform his expected stats from last season.

Thomas's poor expected stats might give us a nice little discount come draft day too, as Statcast slaves (which we’re all guilty of being at times) might get a glimpse of his page and disregard Thomas’s late-season surge as a fluke. That’s where we leap in and pounce on a great deal. Thomas is currently going around pick 250, which is a solid price for someone with 20-20 upside if everything breaks his way. A spotty track record means his floor is quite low, but he’s a worthwhile gamble and could wind up being one of the sneakier 2022 draft day steals.

Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Guardians

Age 29, ADP 501.51

This one is more for deep league players, but Zimmer finally showed some signs of life in 2021, clubbing eight home runs and swiping 15 bags in 348 PA. It was the first time since 2017 that Zimmer sustained any measure of production at the major league level, and he’ll likely go into 2022 as the Guardians’ starting right fielder. A former top prospect out of the University of San Francisco, Zimmer is an athletic outfielder that has battled injuries and prolonged slumps, which have prevented him from achieving his true potential. That being said, Zimmer made improvements in quality of contact last season that suggest a greater upside lies within this profile.

Being a defense-focused speedster, most would imagine Zimmer as more of a punch-and-judy hitter, but that was not the case in 2021. Zimmer crushed baseballs for a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity and had a rather impressive 113.9 MPH max exit velo. For context, that puts him in the 91^st percentile, around sluggers such as Xander Bogaerts and Freddie Freeman. Zimmer also had an above-average 9.4% barrel rate and 42.5% hard-hit rate. At 6’4” and 185 pounds, he has an incredibly athletic build, more akin to a red zone threat wide receiver than a defensive whiz centerfielder. The potential for better power lurks inside this bat. Nothing elite, but better than one might expect given Zimmer’s history, and he could threaten the 15 home run mark in 2021.

How would you like to draft someone with 20 or more steal upside after pick 500? That’s right, Zimmer is currently going at pick 501.51 in NFBC leagues, around the likes of Jurickson Profar, Seth Brown, and Tyrone Taylor. Most people probably don’t play in leagues that go quite that deep, but for my fellow deep league nerds out there, Zimmer is a really intriguing late-round sleeper. He stole 15 bases in 99 games last season and stolen 18 in 101 games back in 2017. He also has multiple 30-steal seasons under his belt in the minors, breaking the 30-mark in fewer than 100 games in 2015 and 2016. If Zimmer had the opportunity to play more regularly, he would have a decent shot at 20 steals or more. He needs to earn it, but given the current state of Cleveland’s outfield, there aren’t many threats to his playing time. The Guardians shipped out Harold Ramirez before the lockout, and I’m not too afraid of Steven Kwan or Owen Miller siphoning playing time. The biggest challenge facing Zimmer in 2022 is himself and overcoming his own flaws.

With decent pop, prodigious speed, and elite defense, Zimmer almost possesses the tools of a superstar. Almost. He’s extremely deficient in perhaps the most important facet of the game for position players, which is the hit tool. He had a stomach-churning 66.1% contact rate and 35.1% contact rate last year. Those marks are especially damning since Zimmer was in the 97^th percentile in sprint speed last season. If he can just put the ball in play, in any capacity, he has a better chance than most to reach first base safely. Zimmer will never approach league average in strikeout rate or contact rate, but if he can get himself to a more manageable rate, such as a strikeout rate below 30% and a contact rate above 70%, his BABIP will rise and his batting average won’t be such a liability.

As it stands, Zimmer projects to hit around .220-.230, but he’s a few tweaks away from something more respectable. Always expect a low batting average, but hopefully, he won’t kill us in that department with some improvements. Never count on those improvements, but at his current draft price, he’s worth the risk.

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