The Bigger Picture - Post-Trade Deadline Pickups Are Key

July 25, 2021

Pierre Camus advises fantasy baseball managers to look for under-the-radar players and prospects ready to move into prominent roles after the 2021 MLB trade deadline.

The MLB trade deadline is one week away as of this writing and the first big deal has already gone down. Baseball's version of the Highlander, Nelson Cruz, has moved to Tampa Bay. It comes as no shock that the Twins are sellers this year; they are currently 17.5 games behind first place in the AL Central and somehow have fared worse than the Tigers. It also makes all the sense in the world that the Rays will do what it takes to get back to the World Series in consecutive years. They are fighting tooth and nail with Boston for first in the AL East.

It may have a slight negative impact on Cruz since he moves from Target Field to the spacious Tropicana Dome and doesn't have the luxury of facing AL Central pitching as often. But we've long established that Cruz is superhuman so that's not the story here. Competitive fantasy managers should look closer at Minnesota's lineup to see who might attempt to fill the void and whether they are worth considering during the stretch run.

This is just one example of how the trade deadline has a very big domino effect on players who don't make the front headline of these deals. In the coming days, RotoBaller will have plenty of reaction and analysis on each individual trade and its implications. My intent here is to reinforce the fact that some of the best moves a fantasy manager can make all season come immediately before and after the trade deadline by acquiring lesser-known names before the competition.

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Pickups You Wish You Made

Instead of projecting which players may become fantasy-relevant by forecasting trades yet to come, this is intended to be a brief history lesson to reinforce a point: the best players to add after a trade is announced are the ones who aren't part of the deal at all. A starter being moved to a contender leaves a hole in the rotation that must be filled. A change in closers always opens up competition to take over the job, although nowadays it will likely just turn into another closer-by-committee. Likewise, holes in the lineup must be patched up by prospects or utilitymen who get the chance to prove their worth.

Anyway, if Max Scherzer is in a different uniform come August what does that mean for him and his managers in fantasy? You could decide to do something in the trade market but realistically he's not going anywhere and it affects your decision-making in no tangible way. Instead of worrying about park factors, divisional strength, and other things that might slightly alter his ratios, look to the Washington rotation to see who will suddenly get a big workload and an opportunity to start.

Each year, players emerge and prove to be valuable after the trade deadline when they were previously non-existent in our collective conscience. You have to know where to look though, and that's where recent history can teach us what to look for.

Stop me if you've heard this before but we'll have to skip over 2020 for this exercise because there was no first half or second half. Just remember that the seemingly inconsequential deal that involved 1B/OF Jose Martinez going from the Rays to the Cubs opened up a roster spot for Randy Arozarena to be called up.

Let's begin with 2019:

• Nick Castellanos is traded from the Tigers to the Cubs at the deadline. This paves the way for Victor Reyes to get regular playing time in the outfield. In the first half, Reyes collected six hits in 30 plate appearances with one steal. With a regular gig in the second half, he bats .313 with eight steals and scores 24 runs.
• In a seemingly minor deal, the Nats acquired oft-injured journeyman relief pitcher Daniel Hudson. Seen as nothing more than bullpen depth initially, Hudson would post a 2.16 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 31 K in 33 1/3 innings but he would provide a big boost to fantasy managers down the stretch with five saves in the final two weeks.
• The biggest deal of the '19 deadline saw Trevor Bauer head to Cincinnati, Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes go to Cleveland, and Taylor Trammell land with San Diego. The void left by Bauer's departure allowed Aaron Civale to step into the rotation. He would post a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in the second half over nine starts, serving as a ratio stabilizer.

The 2018 season saw fewer big names on the move but it was a busy deadline nonetheless.

• Manny Machado was traded from Baltimore to L.A. almost two weeks before the deadline but it still qualifies as a deadline deal. With Machado off the books, the thrifty O's put Renato Nunez in the lineup instead. He would have a solid second half, hitting .275 with seven HR, 20 RBI, and 26 runs scored. Not amazing numbers but he was a solid waiver wire boost for those who grabbed him in August, where he hit .313 with 24 R+RBI.
• Once the Padres did the expected and moved Brad Hand, there were several viable candidates for the closer role. The favorite at the time wasn't supposed to be 31-year-old Kirby Yates but he suddenly became a must-add for save-needy teams. He would close nine games and record 42 K in 25 1/3 IP from that point on.
• Eduardo Escobar going to Arizona paved the way for Jorge Polanco in Minnesota. He would slash .293/.344/.438 with six HR, 37 RBI, 31 R, and four SB after the All-Star break with a regular gig at shortstop.

Some 2017 deals you may have forgotten about:

• The Tigers were sellers (shocking, I know) and that meant J.D. Martinez had to be offloaded to Arizona where he would absolutely devastate NL pitching. Meanwhile, Detroit was giving Mikie Mahtook regular at-bats and it actually paid off, at least for fantasy managers. Mahtook had played a decent amount (140 PA) in the first half but with a bump in appearances he was able to hit eight homers, steal five bases, and score 37 runs after the break while hitting .283 in the process.
• The writing had been on the wall for a while but Felipe Vazquez officially took over as closer for the Bucs once Tony Watson was traded to the Dodgers. Vazquez would save 12 games and strikeout 26 batters over 21 2/3 innings after the deadline that season and be a dominant closer for another two seasons before getting into legal trouble.
• Talk about a tale of two halves. Blake Treinen was an ineffective setup man, posting a 5.73 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 18.9% K% in the first half for Oakland. Once they traded away Sean Dolittle and Ryan Madson to Washington, Treinen inherited the closer role and, apparently, a new dose of confidence. He would suddenly strikeout 26.9% of batters while posting a 2.13 ERA and 1.16 WHIP throughout the second half. Most importantly, he shut the door 13 times in the ninth inning, just one fewer Aroldis Chapman and one more than Craig Kimbrel, both of whom were high fantasy draft picks that year.

Each year, the domino effect makes relatively unknown players fantasy-relevant. We know that fantasy baseball leagues are won through the waiver wire and savvy lineup decision-making, not the preseason draft. The players you stash before the trade deadline or pick up immediately following the announcement of a trade can make all the difference.

Here and Now

First, a reminder that the post-deadline moves we were accustomed to seeing for so long are gone.

Per CBS Sports: "MLB eliminated August and September waiver trades, so July 30 is a hard trade deadline. After that date, teams can not make any trades until after the regular season."

The waiver-wire frenzy that occurs at the end of July and first days of August will be more crucial than ever.

The only major move thus far is the aforementioned Cruz deal. Our Michael Grennell has the full rundown on that deal coming soon. With Cruz gone, Alex Kirilloff out for the season and Byron Buxton yet to return, someone like Nick Gordon or Trevor Larnach becomes intriguing.

The other big names expected to be dealt include: Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Starling Marte, Max Scherzer, Craig Kimbrel, Kyle Gibson, Trey Mancini, Eduardo Escobar, and Richard Rodriguez among others. Start digging through the 40-man rosters of teams like the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Marlins, and Rangers to see which players stand out as potential replacements with upside. I'll leave that analysis to another article but right now I'm eyeing guys like Tyler Nevin, Brailyn Marquez, Leody Taveras, Andrew Young, Corbin Martin, David Bednar, Anthony Bender, and Edward Cabrera.

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