Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 22

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. The youth went wild this week, as we're taking a look at three starting pitchers all under the age of 27 who turned in excellent starts over the weekend.

Struggling top prospect Matt Manning had the first strong start of his career on Friday against Toronto, while struggling ex-top prospect Jesus Luzardo also had a career day on Sunday versus the Reds. Converted closer Ranger Suarez carried his bullpen dominance over to the rotation with a strong outing against Arizona on Sunday as well.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 8/30/2021.

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Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers

5% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 53.1 IP, 5.91 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 1.7 K/BB ratio

08/27 vs. TOR: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Manning was the last of the Detroit Tigers trio of highly touted arms to reach the majors, and like his teammates Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, it has been a rocky start to his MLB career. Manning has taken his licks this season, posting a 5.46 ERA through his first 12 starts, with a disappointingly low 12.7% strikeout rate. Not only has Manning been roughed up by major league hitters, but he had been getting destroyed in the minors prior to his promotion. Manning had a 8.07 ERA and 3.06 HR/9 in seven starts at Triple-A this season, which makes it surprising he was even promoted. Manning had been completely written off by fantasy players in redraft leagues, but the young right-hander put up his best performance to date on Friday, holding the Blue Jays to one run over six innings along with a career-high five strikeouts. Manning holds a lot of future promise for 2022 and beyond, but can he become a late season contributor in 2021?

One of the most hyped high school arms from a few years ago, Manning was selected ninth overall by Detroit back in 2016 and quickly made his way into many top-100 prospect lists, even making it within the top-20 prospects by several expert lists. Prior to 2021 he was a dominant minor leaguer, with an 11.0 K/9 and 3.49 ERA across all levels. Manning is the classic power pitcher prototype that scouts drool over, standing 6’6” and boasting a mid-90s fastball that can touch 98 MPH. He has paired that heat with an 80 MPH curveball and an 87.4 MPH changeup. The curveball is more of a harder slurve than a slow, loopier traditional curve, had been considered Manning’s best secondary pitch coming into 2021. That has changed as Manning was promoted to the major, because Manning has lowered his curveball usage in favor of another breaking pitch.

Looking at Manning’s game-by-game pitch mix, there is one glaring shift he’s made over the course of the season. Manning has drifted away from his curveball in favor of a harder, more traditional slider. Manning was throwing his curveball over 20% of the time when he first debuted, but has thrown it under 5% of the time over his last two starts. Incorporating this pitch has been a challenge for Manning, as opponents have clobbered the slider for a .372 AVG and .465 SLG. The expected stats are somehow even worse, with a .390 xBA, .564 xSLG, and .408 xwOBA off Manning’s slider. One reason batters have performed so well against Manning’s slider is poor location. Manning lives in the zone with this pitch, with an incredibly high 59.3% zone rate. Here’s a heatmap of Manning’s slider location this season.

That is just way too much red and purple in the middle of the strike zone. Most pitchers have a zone rate under 50% with their sliders because the goal with the pitch is often to fool hitters into swinging at something unhittable, but Manning seems incapable or unwilling to take that type of approach. There is most likely one of two reasons why Manning has used his slider like this, either he has no command of the pitch and can’t hit his spots, or he doesn’t believe in the pitch enough to throw it outside of the zone. It’s true that Manning has struggled with command at times in the minor leagues, but I think his zone-heavy approach is more a lack of trust than anything. Based on the slider’s measurables, it’s hard to blame him for not trusting it. Manning’s slider has painfully average movement, and just a 2139 RPM average spin rate. This has led to a pitiful 9.3% swinging strike rate and 27.1% chase rate for Manning on the slider all season.

If the slider isn’t that good, one has to wonder why Manning keeps trying to force it. From what it seems, the organization is pushing him to try a traditional slider instead of the slurve he had been using, and this type of change makes sense in theory. The traditional hard slider is the breaking ball de jour in modern baseball, and this season league-wide slider usage is at an all-time high since pitch-tracking was introduced, while curveballs are at their lowest point since 2015. A good slider will generally produce more whiffs, more strikeouts, and allow fewer hits compared to a good curveball. The issue is, if an organization applies such broad strokes to every pitcher, they're going to wind up with individual players that experience a detriment from throwing sliders instead of curveballs. A good slider might be better than good curveball in general, but some pitchers will simply throw a curveball more effectively than they can throw a slider.

Manning himself has spoken about the challenges in developing the slider, and even in that piece uses terms like “we wanted something different from my curveball”. This isn’t to say the Tigers are wrong from trying to have him change his approach or that Manning’s slider will never work out, but Manning is clearly a work-in-progress at this point and it’s going to be a bumpy ride until he gets his breaking balls ironed out.

Something else of note with Manning that gives me long term concern is the lack of spin rate on his fastball and curveball. Even though the slider has proven ineffective thus far, it’s hardly the only flaw we’ve seen from him. His curveball spin rate is in the 22^nd percentile, while his fastball spin rate is in the 6^th percentile. Manning may have big fastball velocity, and his fastball velocity was at a season high 94.6 MPH in this start, but the effect of the velocity is dulled by a poor spin rate. Manning looks to have a similar problem to early-career Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda, both of whom were big prospects in their day because of their velocity, but their results didn’t live up to their velocity due to straight, low-spin fastballs. All is not hopeless for Manning as both Eovaldi and Pineda eventually got their careers on track, but based on both the surface stats and underlying numbers, Manning seems pretty far away from effectiveness. Unless he can make some serious strides in the offseason, I’d be concerned about his 2022 outlook, let alone consider using him this season.

Verdict:

It was nice to see Manning finally put in a good start, but there are some critical flaws to his game that must be corrected before he finds major league success. His whiff rate, strikeout rate, and spin rate are among the lowest in the majors. He’s spent the better part of 2021 trying to force a new slider to work, and it’s been a miserable go-round to this point. It’s far too early to write off Manning’s long term future, in fact he reminds me a bit of pre-2019 Lucas Giolito, but Manning seems pretty far away from mixed league relevancy at this point.

Jesus Luzardo, Miami Marlins

33% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 60.1 IP, 7.91 ERA, 6.36 FIP, 1.8 K/BB ratio

08/29 vs. CIN: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

2021 has been nothing short of a disaster for Luzardo, who has the third-highest ERA among all pitchers who’ve thrown at least 60 innings this season, behind just Matt Shoemaker and Keegan Akin and just ahead of Jake Arrieta and Mitch Keller. Not exactly the company a pitcher should want to find himself around. The tumult began for Luzardo after he fractured his pinky in May playing video games, then returned in a bullpen role for Oakland, scuffling his way to a 9.90 ERA as a reliever before being sent to Triple-A in June. Luzardo was then used by the A’s as a trade chip to acquire Starling Marte. This of course created an interesting situation for Luzardo because he went to a team that had no visions of playoff contention in 2021 and has built an outstanding reputation for developing young starting pitchers. It was probably the best situation for Luzardo. While he initially struggled with Miami, Luzardo was electric on Sunday, putting up arguably the best start of his young career with six shutout innings and tying his career-high with eight strikeouts. Given the pedigree behind Luzardo, a start like this really jumps out. Can the young lefty finish strong in South Beach?

Luzardo was originally drafted by the Washington Nationals in the third round of the 2016 MLB draft, however many scouts saw him as a first round talent who fell to the third round because he underwent Tommy John surgery three months before the draft. He’s been a deadline trade chip twice in his career, first heading to Oakland in exchange for Sean Doolittle, then getting shipped to Miami this season in the Starling Marte trade. Luzardo uses a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, and a slider. Luzardo has mid-90s fastball velocity, averaging 95.5 MPH with his fastball and can touch 99 MPH, making him one of the hardest throwing left-handed starters in the major leagues. Scouts have also drooled over Luzardo’s slider, with many considering it among the best of all pitching prospects. This combination made Luzardo one of the most prized pitching prospects in all of baseball, and while it hasn’t all come together yet for Luzardo, he’s shown flashes of brilliance during his major league career, including Sunday.

Luzardo has begun to take a different approach since being traded to Miami, which appears to have really paid off in this start. He’s been throwing fastball less often and relying more heavily on his slider and his changeup over the last month, and his changeup was in fact his most used pitch in this outing. Luzardo’s changeup hasn’t gotten nearly the fanfare of his fastball or slider, but it’s got some impressive numbers in its own right. Batters are hitting .258 against the pitch this season, along with an 83.3 MPH average exit velocity and a 16% swinging strike rate. Luzardo’s changeup does have above average movement as well and has all the makings of an effective third offering alongside his fastball and slider, which should also help him maintain more even platoon splits. That has been true in 2021, as Luzardo has allowed exactly a .292 AVG to both righties and lefties, though obviously the overall batting average needs to be lower for Luzardo to sustain success. Even platoon splits don’t matter as much if the pitcher is getting hammered by both righties and lefties. Still, there is a lot of potential in this pitch as not only a show-me offering but a bona fide third weapon. It was his most-used pitch against Cincinnati, and he notched seven whiffs with his changeup in this start.

While the changeup is effective, the real gem in Luzardo’s arsenal is his slider, and despite all his struggles this season, the slider has still been dominant. Batters are hitting .206 with a .144 xBA and a monster 26% swinging strike rate against Luzardo’s slider this year, and he had eight whiffs on 11 swings in this start, good for an incredible 73% whiff rate. With an average velocity of 83.4 MPH, Luzardo’s slider has an unusually wide amount of velocity separation between his slider and fastball, which can keep hitters off balance. The pitch has remarkable movement as well, with 8.6 inches of drop above average, and 7.8 inches of break above league average. Here’s a few examples of the pitch from this start.

It’s easy to see why the pitch has performed so well, and looking at this pitch and some of the numbers behind it, it’s hard to believe how bad Luzardo’s overall numbers have been. He is clearly very talented and has the tools to be successful, but he’s failed to put it all together. Why don’t we see more of the Luzardo we saw this weekend?

One of the biggest problems for Luzardo is his four-seam fastball, which has been absolutely demolished by opponents in 2021 for a .353 AVG and a .721 SLG. Batters are getting near ideal contact off Luzardo’s four-seamer with a 91.4 MPH average exit velocity and a 16-degree average launch angle, so it’s no surprise the results have been this poor for Luzardo. His answer to this seems to be using the fastball less often, as he only threw his four-seamer 22% of the time in this start compared to 32.7% usage on the year. While I would certainly be in favor of Luzardo using his slider and changeup more often, this approach seems like more of a band-aid than a true long-term solution. He’s far too young and has too good of measurables to swear off fastballs entirely, so he’ll need to work on the root of the issue, which is location.

Luzardo’s four-seam fastball performed much better in 2020, and that’s because Luzardo was able to keep it away from the heart of the plate with consistency. Here’s a fastball heatmap comparison of this season compared to 2020.

2021:

2020:

He pounded the upper part of the zone and above the zone with his fastball last year, but is a bit more all over the place in 2021, and is throwing the pitch down a lot more than he did in 2020. This has had a direct effect on the outcomes, as Luzardo’s batting average against his four-seamer is more than 100 points higher this season compared to 2020, and his slugging percentage against is more than 200 points higher. To get a better idea of this, here’s the same heatmaps with the batting average against for each section of the zone.

2021:

2020:

Of course there is some sample size variance here because collectively were talking about 125.1 innings split between two partial seasons, but it’s clear that the lower and middle areas of the zone are a problem for him, and his fastball command has evaporated in 2021.

The good news for Luzardo is that this seems like a correctable issue. He’s never had command problems prior to 2021, and he only issued one walk in his most recent start. The answer for him probably lies in mechanical tweaks that might not occur until the offseason, but as bad as this year has been, I think there’s plenty of hope for his future beyond 2021 and he’d be a nice buy-low candidate in dynasty formats. It’s a bit harder to trust him this season because of how poor his results have been, so I’d probably avoid him out of an abundance of caution in crunch time situations and playoff matchups. However, if you find yourself in an ERA and WHIP hole in a H2H categories matchup, or behind in a points league matchup, Luzardo is a high-upside dart to throw late in the week.

Verdict:

From a raw stuff perspective Luzardo boasts an incredible arsenal, but the mysterious vanishing of his command has created a worst-case scenario season for him. His slider has the makings of an elite offering and his changeup is really strong for a third pitch. His fastball has been the source of a lot of his pain this year, but if he can rediscover his command he should be able to right the ship. Going forward, this is a pitcher I’d be very interested in for dynasty leagues and as a 2022 post-hype sleeper. For this season, he should only be considered as a high-risk, high-reward streaming option. When he’s on he’s lights out, but when he’s off you can kiss your ratios goodbye for the week. His next start comes Friday against Philadelphia at home, and while the Phillies have struggled with a 90 wRC+ over the last 14 days, they’ve still been a top-10 offense against southpaws this season and I wouldn’t use him unless you’re looking for a Hail Mary.

Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies

57% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 61.2 IP, 1.48 ERA, 3.26, 2.4 K/BB ratio

08/29 vs. ARI: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

The best Ranger pitcher doesn’t even play for Texas this season, as Ranger Suarez has seamlessly transitioned from closer to rotation during the month of August and has catapulted himself into fantasy relevance. Suarez has also worked up his pitch count, and has thrown over 90 pitches in each of his last two starts. While his overall numbers are certainly influenced by his time in the bullpen, Suarez still has a 2.03 ERA as a starter. Suarez has solidified himself into Philadelphia’s rotation regardless of when Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez return, but does that mean he belongs in your fantasy rotation?

Originally signed by the Phillies as an international free agent out of Venezuela at the age of 16, Suarez never gained much traction as a prospect, never even cracking the organizational top-10 for Philadelphia. Suarez doesn’t really possess many of the attributes scouts love, as he throws low-90s velocity and is primarily a sinkerball pitcher. He also wasn’t perceived to have any exceptional breaking ball, and his low strikeout rates in the minor leagues were cause for concern. Suarez does have a complete four-pitch arsenal consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup. While none of his breaking balls were considered standouts, Suarez does have one standout pitch, which is his sinker.

As mentioned earlier, Suarez is a sinkerball-heavy pitcher, and that has led to above average groundball rates at nearly every step of his career. He has an elite 64.1% groundball rate this season, and he’s rarely been below 50% at any level in the past. Altogether, batters are hitting just .196 against Suarez’s sinker with a .206 SLG. They also have an incredible -3-degree average launch angle off the sinker, meaning batters are just pounding this thing into the earth every time they make contact. While this launch angle seems unsustainable over long periods, the groundball rate against Suarez’s sinker have been rather consistent over the course of his career. He has a 68.4% groundball against his sinker this season, and a 69.4% groundball rate for his career. It should be noted that Suarez has only thrown 134.2 career innings split across four different seasons as of writing this, but it’s encouraging to see that his sinker has proven to be an effective groundball pitch throughout his brief MLB career. That fact coupled with his minor league groundball rates suggests this is a repeatable skill for Suarez, and he should be able to maintain a high groundball rate whether he’s a starter or reliever.

Of course, the groundball rate is excellent to see and is the foundation for success for Suarez at the major league level, however one of his most glaring flaws is an over-reliance on fastballs. Suarez has had starts where he’s thrown more than 75% fastballs, and has thrown either a fastball or changeup 94.1% of the time this season. That type of approach might fly in the bullpen, but he will need to incorporate a third pitch more frequently, otherwise his ceiling is probably a left-handed version of Antonio Senzatela. Suarez did use his slider 13.5% of the time in this start, which was by far his highest slider usage in a given start this season. It’s the only time Suarez used the pitch more than 6% of the time, and it paid off for him in the strikeout department, as Suarez notched four whiffs on five swings with the pitch, good for a third of his total whiffs despite being his least thrown pitch. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.

While definitely not on the level of someone like Jesus Luzardo, it doesn’t look too shabby, especially considering how infrequently Suarez had been using it. He has gotten solid results on the limited sample this season, having allowed zero hits with a .108 xBA and -14-degree average launch angle. He’s only thrown 62 sliders, 13 of which were in this start, so obviously these numbers are far from concrete, but there still might be something here with this pitch that could help increase his strikeout rate and give him a more well-rounded arsenal. It will be interesting to monitor Suarez’s pitch mix and slider usage over the remainder of the season.

I’d be remiss not to point out how fortunate Suarez has been on batted balls this season. Of course, anyone with a 1.48 ERA has some luck driving their results, but Suarez’s .235 BABIP against is excessively low, even for a groundball pitcher. Most other high-groundball pitchers sit between a .270-.300 BABIP, and we should definitely expect regression on batted balls going forward. His home run rate also seems artificially low at 0.40 HR/9. Yes, I do expect Suarez to sustain a good home run rate over long periods of time, but a home run rate this low is driven by good fortune, especially considering his home ballpark. An 8.1% HR/FB ratio is hard to sustain, and his 3.59 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA paint a much more realistic picture of what his ERA could be going forward. It probably doesn’t shock anyone to learn Suarez has been pitching over his head, but it’s still important to point out and create a more realistic long term picture, which for me looks like a high-threes to low-fours ERA pitcher with a moderate strikeout rate and excellent power suppression. A useful pitcher indeed, but he profiles more as the aforementioned Antonio Senzatela or Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser, rather than the Framber Valdez or Logan Webb, which is probably who most people want Suarez to be.

Verdict:

Suarez does one thing really, really, well, which is induce groundballs. There’s usually a place for someone with an elite skill on a fantasy roster, though groundball pitchers tend to have limited upside, and Suarez doesn’t have the strikeout stuff us fantasy players often crave. His roster percentage also seems artificially high because of his role as closer earlier this season, and it seems like many players chose to hang onto him rather than let him go when that role changed. He looks like a safe, low-upside option for the rest of this season, though it would be interesting to see how he uses his slider throughout the final month. Increased slider usage could unlock more strikeout potential, which would elevate him above your standard sinkerballer. As things line up now, his next two starts are at Miami and home against Colorado, which are two outstanding matchups. He’s worth the add for those matchups alone, and looking at Philadelphia’s remaining schedule, I’m seeing a lot of soft matchups ahead. He is worth adding a possibly hanging onto for the rest of the season to ride out against these bottom-feeder teams.

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