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Dan examines which MLB teams might exceed expectations and which others may fail to live up to expectations this baseball season.
Opening Day is just around the corner and as the old saying goes, "Hope springs eternal" for all 30 major league baseball teams. Every team is undefeated with the potential to contend for their division and a playoff berth.
But the cruel reality is that quite a few teams stand little to no chance of reaching the postseason or contending for a title. This article isn't about those bottom dwellers or even about the favorites, either.
What we are looking at here are the teams in the middle. Some of them will end up meeting or exceeding expectations or even surprise us with their final win totals, while others (due to injuries, poor performances, or other factors) will fail to reach their potential. I bring you the most overrated and underrated MLB teams as we head into the 2024 baseball season.
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Overrated MLB Teams
New York Yankees
The burden of high expectations ends up biting the Yankees often. As the premier franchise in baseball, their fans across the country expect nothing but a contender every year without excuses. And while they have the resources and finances to make it happen more often than not, I am pretty skeptical about their ability to compete in 2024. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Yankees with the second-best odds to win the American League at +500 ahead of both Baltimore and Texas somehow.
The biggest blow to their chances has been the injury to their ace, Gerrit Cole. Their starting rotation was already a bit thin with Carlos Rodon looking shaky last season (and this spring). Both Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman are serviceable but not elite by any means. Clarke Schmidt can't get lefties out and Luis Gil is a 25-year-old unproven prospect.
On Friday's show @DavisMattek told @ScottFerrall that he thinks eventually Gerrit Cole ends up having surgery after all
Catch an all new "Ferrall Coast to Coast" at 3ET/12PT on @SportsGrid, @SportsGridRadio & @SiriusXM Ch. 159!! pic.twitter.com/htlAXYOX4v
— Ferrall on SportsGrid (@FerrallonGrid) March 18, 2024
The bullpen is fine, but the lineup trails off pretty quickly after the big three of Torres-Soto-Judge. Anthony Rizzo is going to be 35 and coming off concussion issues. Giancarlo Stanton is 34 and still has a giant hole in his swing. Anthony Volpe could be a nice breakout, but Alex Verdugo is just another guy. Can Aaron Judge stay healthy all year? How about Stanton?
Baltimore and Toronto are the teams to beat in this division, Tampa is always good, and the Red Sox are going to be better (more on them in a minute).
Houston Astros
The favorite to win the AL as of Opening Day Eve is the Houston Astros at +350. But why?
While Houston is likely to finish with a winning record and compete for a playoff spot, I don't view them as one of the top 5-6 contenders this season unless they make some drastic in-season moves. The biggest weakness is their starting pitching as they open the season with Justin Verlander and Jose Urquidy on the IL and aren't likely to have either Lance McCullers Jr. or Luis Garcia this year as both are coming off major surgeries.
Justin Verlander throwing a live bullpen at Minute Maid Park right now pic.twitter.com/JMx73C2VFQ
— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) March 26, 2024
That means that Houston has to roll with Ronel Blanco and J.P. France in its rotation to start the season. While Framber Valdez is solid and I like Hunter Brown to break out and be very good, Cristian Javier is coming off a very poor year in 2023 and could be shaky again this year.
The strength of this team is their bullpen as they added Josh Hader to an already strong group. However, the offense tails off pretty quickly after the first four (Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman) as Jose Abreu is now 37 years old and Jeremy Pena is coming off a poor sophomore campaign.
Houston will be good, but I don't think they'll be great as there are still questions about Verlander's health and viability once he returns as well. The defending champion Rangers are loaded with offense in the AL West and the Seattle Mariners have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball. I have Houston finishing behind both this year and fighting for a Wild Card.
Underrated MLB Teams
Minnesota Twins
Both of my overrated teams come from the American League and both of my underrated teams just happen to be in the AL, too. The Twins are favorites to win a weak AL Central Division, which they did last season even though they won just 87 games (seventh most in the AL). But I think the 2024 version of this team in Minnesota could be much improved and closer to a 95- 100-win team.
Right now, Vegas has the Twins at +850 to win the American League -- the fifth-best odds. But I have their starting pitching ranked ahead of every team in the AL other than Seattle. While they lost Sonny Gray to free agency, they bring back Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober (a popular breakout candidate), who all pitched well in 2023. Chris Paddack occupies the fourth starter spot and is a bounce-back candidate, while Louie Varland will start the season as the fifth starter after a spectacular spring training where he pitched extremely well.
The bullpen was a strength last season, but was dealt a blow last week when the top closer in the game -- Jhoan Duran -- was sent to the IL with an oblique injury. Hopefully, he's not out long, but Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart should be able to fill in for Duran in high-leverage situations.
Matt Wallner - Minnesota Twins (2)* pic.twitter.com/aIhLhVJ1EE
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) March 24, 2024
The offense is where Minnesota really needs to be more consistent. They struggled with strikeouts last season and to keep their best hitters healthy and in the lineup. They really need a full season of Byron Buxton at the top of the lineup as he and Carlos Correa are the anchors of the offense. Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis are dynamic hitters who are both just turning 25 years old.
Max Kepler is always pretty solid and the Twins are hoping to get big years from two post-hype breakout candidates in Alex Kirilloff and Matt Wallner -- lefties with a lot of pop in their bats. The addition of Carlos Santana adds a solid veteran presence and another patient hitter. I view him as a big upgrade over Joey Gallo from last season.
The Twins should win the Central Division again, but I think they could be one of the better teams in the AL if they can stay healthy. They have a lot of good young hitters AND pitchers on this team.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox finished in last place in the AL East last season but won only nine fewer games than the first-place Minnesota Twins. Boston was dealt an unfortunate blow to its pitching depth this preseason when it lost free-agent acquisition Lucas Giolito to a UCL injury that will sideline him for the season, but I still like their young collection of starting pitchers.
Nick Pivetta had a strong second half to the 2023 season after finally being converted back into a starter and has the type of stuff that could end up leading the league in strikeouts. Brayan Bello isn't a big strikeout guy, but has shown really solid command and an ability to induce ground balls -- he will take the ball for Boston on Opening Day. Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock have both looked strong this spring and at various times last year, while Tanner Houck moves into the fifth slot in the rotation to fill the void left behind by the injured Giolito.
Spring Stuff+ leaders, min 100 pitches tracked
1) Nick Pivetta 140
2) Alex Lange
3) Grayson Rodriguez
4) Jared Jones 131
5) Luis Gil
6) Riley O'Brien
7) Ryan Pepiot
8) Chad Green
9) Beau Brieske
10) Isaiah Campbell 125google doc updated
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) March 25, 2024
That rotation could be really good...or very mediocre, I know, but I am a fan of Pivetta, Bello, and Crawford and I think they can get enough out of that group to be competitive on a daily basis.
The strength of this team is going to be the bats, without question. Rafael Devers and Triston Casas are both 30+ home run hitters that will anchor this lineup with another lefty, speedster Jarren Duran, set to lead off and primed for a big 2024 campaign. Trevor Story will be the right-handed back that breaks up the lefties and is a 25-25 threat of his own if he can stay healthy.
Masataka Yoshida showed last year that he's a darn good contact hitter with a little pop in his bat and rookie Ceddanne Rafaela is yet another speedster that Boston is going to have in the lineup manning center field. Tyler O'Neill was a huge offseason acquisition and has a Trevor Story-esque skill set of his own with bulging biceps and 90+ sprint speed. This lineup is loaded with good young hitters and a ton of speed on the basepaths.
Yes, the division is going to be good top to bottom, but I think Boston improves by at least 10 games this season and wins enough to put itself into the Wild Card mix in the final weeks of the season. That's all Boston fans can ask for anyway, right?
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