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Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) analyzes the lefty pitcher landscape for the second half of the 2023 fantasy season, highlighting those likely to continue their first-half success and those likely to fade into the ether.
Only 10% of the worldwide population is left-handed. In the MLB, lefty pitchers are coveted for their utility against left-handed batters, fall-off-the-shelf curveballs, and variable deliveries that can confuse hitters on both sides of the plate. The first half of the 2023 season has seen a plethora of lefties rise to the top of the fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings. Which of these hurlers are likely to contribute through the second half and help their managers make a playoff run?
Other lefties may have shown promise in the first half, but are unlikely to sustain their success. Which guys are likely to fall off and can be trade-now candidates or exchanged for more promising free agents?
Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) appraises the current lefty landscape, highlighting the risers that managers can target to round out their staff going into the second half of the 2023 fantasy baseball season.
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Southpaw Stalwarts
Managers can depend on these elite guys for consistent production in all departments.
Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw is likely to return from his shoulder injury after the All-Star break and will continue to be a top overall pitcher, righty or lefty.
Framber Valdez - Houston Astros
"La Grasa", as he is called by his teammates, pitches for a winning team and his peripherals do not show any signs of slowing down. Start him in every matchup with confidence.
Lovable Lefties
This list of first-half risers is primed for second-half success.
Jesus Luzardo - Miami Marlins
While his teammate Sandy Alcantara has received more attention due to his unexpectedly poor performance, Luzardo has quietly been putting together a stellar 2023. His repertoire is anchored by his nasty slider which is currently showing a 50.9 Whiff% (!). His 3.22 FIP matches his 3.32 ERA, suggesting his ratios should remain largely consistent. The Marlins look like the real deal despite their tough division, and Luzardo is likely to be on many championship fantasy teams this year.
James Paxton - Boston Red Sox
Paxton, by the numbers, belongs at the top of this article. However, the concern with The Big Maple will always be the potential for injury which makes him more of a dice roll than some of the others on this list. That said, Paxton leads all lefties with a 24.5 K-BB% across 50 innings pitched. You read that right, higher than Kershaw, Valdez, or anyone else on this list. Furthermore, the contact he does give up is on the softer side with a 38.8% HardHit%. He is likely to induce some anxiety given the injury history, but managers should be targeting Paxton as a buy-low candidate for their playoff run.
Blake Snell - San Diego Padres
In his last eight starts, Snell has returned to the form that has made him a fantasy darling so many times before, giving up two earned runs or fewer in each of those starts. His control remains his Achilles heel, leading this list with an 11.9 BB%. However, he also leads this list with a 31.3 K%. His 3.78 FIP suggests a bit of ratio regression is likely, but those strikeout numbers will keep his floor high, particularly in points leagues, and any staff with Snell as an SP2 is likely to succeed.
Andrew Abbott - Cincinnati Reds
Abbott is the most exciting rookie not named Elly De La Cruz on a burgeoning Reds team flush with young talent. Abbott’s success has been so profound that his numbers unsurprisingly suggest some regression is coming. His 3.48 FIP is solid in isolation, particularly for a rookie, but against a 1.21 ERA some increased run production is inevitable. His 42.0% HardHit% is the fourth highest of all names on this list, and hitters are likely to further hone their approaches as more film on Abbott becomes available. His trade price right now might be too high, but Abbott is a strong SP3 for any manager that has the chance to roster him, just be ready for a few more earned runs scattered across the second half.
Justin Steele - Chicago Cubs
Steele is one of those guys on a mediocre team that many managers might brush off for most of the season, only to one day glance at his stats and realize what he has been achieving. His 2.87 FIP is second on this list to Framber Valdez. While Valdez holds a 44.6 HardHit%, Steele has a 30.8 HardHit%. Steele is slightly limited by a 22.0 K% and pitching for the middling Cubs, but for those in need of ratio stabilization, Steele is a guy to buy low, as his current manager may be unaware of just how valuable he is.
Braxton Garrett - Miami Marlins
Garrett has impressed in 2023, nearly matching his 88.0 IP total from last year before the All-Star break. His 27.5 K% and 3.34 FIP make him a solid addition to any staff, but not without risk. When batters make contact, they’re making solid contact with a 46.4 HardHit%, the highest of any entry on this list. Furthermore, balls in the air tend to leave the park with a 16.7% HR/FB rate. Garrett’s strikeout ability, strong backing from the Marlins lineup, and solid peripheral stats bode well, but he carries more risk than most in this tier.
Reid Detmers - Los Angeles Angels
For veteran managers, Detmers' start of 2023 might be reminiscent of Michael Pineda. Detmers was striking out batters left and right, and holding an FIP below 3.50 suggesting his “pure” pitching was stellar. However, his ERA remained above 4.00, leading many managers to drop him. Now it seems, the wait is over and he is matching his performance to his peripheral stats. Detmers is third amongst all lefties with a 31.1 K%, due largely to his slider and curveball which boast a 37.7 and 32.5 Whiff%, respectively. His 3.29 FIP and .318 BABIP suggest even further improvement is likely in his ratios, and Detmers should be targeted in any league where he has been mistakenly left on the waiver wire.
"Treading Water"
These above-average lefties have likely hit their ceiling but can still contribute in the right situation.
Eduardo Rodriguez - Detroit Tigers
Rodriguez is listed first here, rather than in the above category, largely due to risk. His performance this year has been a true resurgence, the definition of a “post-hype sleeper”, however, he returns from a finger injury on his throwing hand to a team with mediocre run support, limiting his win potential. E-Rod has maintained an above-average 26.3 K% and his 31.4 HardHit% is one of the lowest on this list. A pitcher who induces soft contact and consistent strikeouts is generally coveted in points leagues, but Rodriguez needs close attention to see if he can keep up his pre-injury success in the second half.
Ranger Suarez - Philadelphia Phillies
Suarez, somewhat like Steele, is a consistent producer who has never flashed dominance. He is certainly worth rostering with a 3.50 FIP, but his strikeout upside is limited with a 23.4 K%. He and Rodriguez are the two in this category more likely to move up than down, and with Suarez only at 54% ownership in Yahoo leagues, he may be the best lefty (or pitcher in general) available on some managers’ waiver wires. Suarez is likely to flutter between SP3/4 on championship pitching staffs this year, providing consistency without dominance.
Jordan Montgomery - St. Louis Cardinals
Where Suarez belongs, so does Montgomery. For the past few years, Montgomery has seemed to follow the same trajectory - streaming pickup in shallow leagues, rostered as a bottom-of-the-staff guy in deeper leagues. Like Suarez, Montgomery is likely to continue producing ratio stability with a 3.48 FIP but is also limited by his lack of strikeout upside with a 22.0 K%. The Cardinals have not shown any signs of waking up, whereas the Phillies are 14-6 in their last 20 games. Of the two, Suarez is the preferred option, but those in need of ratio help can also roster Montgomery as an SP3/4.
Andrew Heaney - Texas Rangers
The “smart” middle-round pick on so many draft boards, Heaney has yet to come into his own with consistent success to justify him as a truly savvy pick. He will generally produce strikeouts, but his 25.1 K% is middle-of-the-pack on this list, limiting his upside. The most frightening of his peripheral stats is a 4.86 FIP despite his decent K%, which could spell disaster for ratios and those in category-based leagues especially. It is hard to justify dropping him for those that currently own him, but Heaney is not a pitcher to target in a trade at present.
Logan Allen - Cleveland Guardians
The biggest question for Allen is playing time, and unfortunately, that question can make it hard to roster him in most formats, especially without an NA spot. Even with Triston McKenzie on the shelf, Allen was demoted to the minor leagues while his fellow rookies Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are getting opportunities in the Cleveland rotation. When he is in the MLB, this year or next, Allen is worth owning with a 3.72 FIP and a solid fastball-changeup one-two punch, but for now, he is stuck in the minors.
“The Drop Off”
This group of hurlers is best used for streaming or left on the waiver wire.
JP Sears - Oakland Athletics
Sears is so likable. He’s in the middle of his career having a bit of a coming out party (relatively speaking) while pitching for “the people’s team”, the Oakland Athletics. He helps limit potential damage with a microscopic 5.2 BB%. However, his 4.91 FIP, backed by a cellar-dwelling Athletics team, suggests that ratio regression is coming without much in the way of win upside.
Drew Smyly - Chicago Cubs
It is tempting to roster Smyly purely for all of the fun team names one could conjure up. Unfortunately, this is probably the highest upside he brings. His 4.55 FIP and 19.7 K% are both in the bottom third of pitchers on this list, and his win upside is similarly capped with the Cubs lineup backing him. Smyly deserves consideration when in need of a streamer, but outside of that he’s slowly running out of gas in the tank.
Wade Miley - Milwaukee Brewers
Most managers who own Miley likely picked him up as a free agent after two or three starts. Most managers probably thought “This is too good to be true”. They would be correct. Miley has progressively come back to earth after admirable contributions earlier this season. Miley’s 15.1 K% and 6.9 SwStr% are both abysmal and the lowest of anyone on this list. His 3.36 ERA and 4.62 FIP suggest significant ratio regression is coming. The Brewers have shown some signs of life and Miley may be worth the occasional stream, but he is best left as a free agent as he likely continues to drop down the rankings.
Nestor Cortes - New York Yankees
Leading with Cortes’ 5.16 ERA and 4.60 FIP quickly makes the case that he should be left on the waiver wire in all but the deepest points leagues. He does have some middling strikeout potential with a 23.4 K%, but his 9.7 SwStr% is also on the lower side, limiting even this potential contribution. If the Yankees get hot, he may be worth a test run as a streamer here and there, but that looks to be the highest ceiling for Cortes at present.
Patrick Sandoval - Los Angeles Angels
Sandoval, like Cortes, is sporting a rough 4.41 ERA. His 8.8 K-BB% is one of the lowest on this list, suggesting a low-upside pitcher who can hurt himself with walks. Sandoval should be lower down on most managers’ streaming lists, and certainly not worth rostering outside of the deepest leagues.
Yusei Kikuchi - Toronto Bluejays
It is a bit sad seeing Kikuchi this far down this list. He may have some of the highest ownership for how poor his performance has been, and sadly there is not much hope on the horizon. His 4.24 ERA and 5.20 FIP suggest that the maddening blowups are only going to continue. While he has a bit of win potential with the Blue Jays backing him and his 24.5 K% can provide some upside, Kikuchi should be avoided in any league with ratio categories and streamed only in points leagues in dire situations.
Tommy Henry - Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have been deploying a rotating cast of characters in their rotation, with Henry getting a decent shake across 74.1 IP despite mediocre performance. Henry’s 16.1 K% is second-lowest on this list behind Miley, and he “boasts” the largest gap between his 3.75 ERA and 5.27 FIP. The worst is yet to come, and it could get ugly.
On the Shelf
These injured stars should return in the second half and quickly get back to form.
Max Fried - Atlanta Braves
Fried is finally making some progress throwing after a prolonged stint on the injured list. He was producing well before his injury and is likely to do so again once he rejoins the strong Braves lineup.
Shane McClanahan - Tampa Bay Rays
After his fantasy darling season in 2022, McClanahan was a great draft target this year, only to go down recently with a back injury of unclear severity. Before that, McClanahan was continuing his 2022 success and hopefully will come back in time to be a contributor to the playoff push for fantasy managers.
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