RotoBaller Staff Mock Draft Analysis: 12-Team Roto League Draft

Vince DiSilvio reviews the RotoBaller staff mock draft for 2022 fantasy baseball to see who may be undervalued or overvalued based on ADP.

Fantasy prep is never complete without mock drafts. So in doing our best to prepare for the 2022 season, my fellow RotoBaller writers and I got together for a 12-team 5X5 Roto mock draft. The only difference is that we used Quality Starts instead of Wins.

I’ll be breaking down our draft round-by-round and highlighting some noteworthy picks in each round.

It’s important to note that since this draft took place, a lot of major things have happened that will have a big impact on drafts moving forward. I’ll do my best to note those instances as we go. Also, when referring to ADP, I am referring to the “ADP Industry Comparison” average here.

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Round 1

Pick 1 - Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani is an interesting pick here at #1 overall. While not a common first player off the board, this pick completely makes sense when you consider Ohtani’s ceiling. This is a daily moves league, so that allows for the flexibility to play him wherever you want to depending on what he is doing on a given day. He can legitimately contribute in nine categories, sounds like a #1 overall pick to me.

Pick 2 – Fernando Tatis Jr.: This obviously happened before the injury, which is why he went this high. His official ADP is still way too high, but our RotoBaller Recommendations have him ranked 99^th overall. If there is a SS late in the draft, and you are comfortable with holding down the fort (Adames, Crawford, etc.), the combination of that guy and Tatis is probably still a top-10 SS.

Pick 9 – Ronald Acuna Jr.:  Another guy whose injury status has changed since the draft, but this time for the better. The Braves have a tentative plan to DH Acuna as early as April 21^st, with a return to the OF by May 21^st. This is about as late as Acuna should go in any draft, and the case could be made that he should go even higher.

Pick 10 – Gerrit Cole: This was my first pick in the mock draft. I would have preferred a hitter with my first pick, but to me, the top tier of hitters were all gone. I opted for a sure ace in Cole knowing I could get somebody from that next tier of hitters easily in the next round.

Round 2

Pick 14 – Mike Trout: Injury concerns are baked in here for Trout, which is understandable, especially given the great young hitters in the first round. That being said, Trout could still easily end the season as a top-five hitter.

Pick 17 – Corbin Burnes: Burnes went a little later than his ADP (11). This draft started hitter-heavy, but Max Scherzer also went before last year’s Cy Young winner. I can understand that we’ve only seen Burnes do it once, so there may be a little more risk here than originally thought. Still, if he repeats his 2021 season, this is a big-time value.

Pick 20 – Jacob deGrom: Health is the biggest factor here. This pick was made before Spring Training began, and I have to imagine he would go higher if drafting today. Everything we’ve heard has been positive, and he’s easily the best pitcher in baseball if healthy.

Round 3

Pick 25 – Freddie Freeman: This pick was made before his signing with the Dodgers, but I don’t see the move from Atlanta to LA changing his production too much. This is a great value here, getting about as reliable a hitter as you can get. He hasn’t hit below .295 or had a wRC+ below 135 since 2015.

Pick 32 – Matt Olson: This one hurt me, I really wanted him at 34. Olson put it all together last season with 39 HRs, 101 runs, 111 RBI, and a .379 wOBA. The most impressive thing was his .271 AVG, which was sort of the last piece of the puzzle for Olson. He’s not slowing down anytime soon and could easily be a first-round pick next year.

Round 4

Pick 39 – Sandy Alcantara: This was slightly higher than his ADP, but I think there is a bit of a drop in SP quality after Alcantara, and I wanted to make sure I got another solid pitcher. I also absolutely love Alcantara, especially in this format of using quality starts instead of wins. One of four pitchers to throw 200 innings last season and he is still on the upward trajectory. A few more Ks and he is a true SP1 in fantasy.

Pick 43 – Frankie Montas: Montas went significantly higher than his ADP, which is currently around pick 82. But when you look at the next batch of starting pitchers to go, I don’t think Montas is definitely worse than any of them. He increased the usage of his splitter, which is one of the best pitches in baseball (opposing WOBA .164).

Round 5

Pick 49 – Wander Franco: We’ve only seen a small sample size, but Franco is another guy that I could imagine being a first-round pick next year. He may see some growing pains, but his plate discipline is so good that it’s hard to imagine them being too bad.

Pick 55 – Salvador Perez: The first catcher off the board, and it's easy to see why. He hit 48 HRs last year, and maybe more importantly, played in 161 games. No other catcher will come close to that even with the DH in the NL this year. The advantage Perez can give you over other catchers is what justifies a fifth-round pick. Sort of similar to picking a TE like Travis Kelce in football.

Round 6

Pick 66/71 – Raisel Iglesias/Emmanuel Clase: The second tier of closers went slightly earlier than their ADP, being at 72 and 87, respectively. This starts a bit of a closer run because it is really nice to have at least one high-end source of saves to keep you out of last place in that category.

Pick 72 – Ketel Marte: This is right around his ADP, but I really like the value and potential upside for Marte. He hit .318 last season with a 139 wRC+ and .385 wOBA in 2021. Injuries were an issue for him last year, but a healthy season from Marte is probably worth way more than a sixth-round pick.

Round 7

Pick 79 – Lance Lynn: He slipped a decent amount compared to his ADP, which is at 63. He had the best season of his career last year from s Statcast perspective, including being in the 94^th percentile in xwOBA and xERA. Could be a really good value at 79.

Pick 83 – Adalberto Mondesi: Mondesi’s ADP has been all over the place, but I like this slightly more cautious spot for him here. Yes, steals are important, but I am personally never somebody that wants to risk hurting other categories too much to get them. Mondesi has the potential to give you a bit of everything while dominating steals, which makes him super enticing. I guess I just don’t have the guts to go in on him this year.

Round 8

Pick 87 – Aroldis Chapman: This was my pick, and I admit was a bit of a reach. I really didn’t want to get left out of a reliable 30+ saves guy on my team. Kenley Jansen was not on the Braves at this point, I probably would have picked him here instead if I knew that.

Pick 91 – Kris Bryant: This was before Bryant signed with Colorado, and his ADP has already begun to skyrocket since then.  It’s at about 76 right now and may end up higher than that. I personally would have considered him at 63 when I took Arenado, but I ultimately think somewhere in the low 70s is where Bryant should land.

Round 9

Pick 100 – Will Smith: Again, this happened before Kenley Jansen joined the Atlanta bullpen. His ADP has adjusted, but RotoBaller recommends him at pick 280.

Pick 101 – Bobby Witt Jr.: While not set in stone, it seems pretty likely that he will be the Opening Day 3B for the Royals.  His ADP is around pick 136, but I think this pick at 101 is a much better indication of his current value.

Pick 108 – Daulton Varsho: Varsho’s ADP sits at around 140, so this could be a bit of a reach. The ceiling is tremendously high with Varsho potentially playing mostly OF and potentially giving you 20 SB out of the catcher position. So while a gamble, I think this is a pretty good one.

Round 10

Pick 110 – Anthony Rendon: Injuries are a concern with Rendon, which is why he goes here outside of the top-100. That being said, this could be the steal of the draft is goes back to anything resembling his 2019 season, a .319/.412/.497 slash line with 34 HRs and 117 RBIs in 146 games.

Pick 114 – Christian Yelich:  Another potential steal here, although his concerns go beyond injuries. He is going to have to improve that 23.8 K% (30.8% in 2020) if he is going to reclaim the glory he once had. It was interesting to see him go almost a full round behind Cody Bellinger, who is often ranked right next to Yelich.

Round 11

Pick 128 – Kyle Schwarber: This was before his signing to Philly; his ADP is currently around pick 113. He may have turned a corner last season, and a full season of his 2021 production is worth way more than an 11^th round pick.

Pick 130 – Rhys Hoskins: I am very much in on Rhys Hoskins and having guys like Schwarber and Nick Castellanos join him is even better. He had the highest wOBA of his career (.378) in an injury-shortened season in 2021.

Round 12

Pick 140 – Seiya Suzuki: His ADP is at 125 now, likely because Wrigley Field is a great landing spot for the Japanese star.  I’d say he’s a pretty good bet for NL Rookie of the Year this year.

Round 13

Pick 146 – Trevor Bauer: His ADP has been falling since this pick was made and since the uncertainty of him playing this season grows, it is currently around 186.

Pick 147 – Ke’Bryan Hayes: His ADP is in the 160s right now, but I agree in thinking it should be higher than that. There are few guys this low in the draft that can contribute to all five hitting categories, and Hayes has the ability to do just that. A perfect example of getting a guy at a discount after the hype dies down a bit.

Round 14

Pick 157 – Nelson Cruz: Cruz’s ADP is in the 130s now, so this is a pretty good value. It’s hard to imagine anything other than 30+ HRs and 80+ RBIs from him in 2022. It doesn’t hurt that he'll be hitting behind Juan Soto too.

Rounds 15-18

Pick 178 – Blake Treinen: Treinen’s ADP is up to 132 now and should continue to climb now that he is the #1 option for saves for the Dodgers. He had a 1.99 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and a 10.58 K/9 in 2021.

Pick 179 – Adley Rutschman: The top catching prospect’s ADP should probably be a bit lower now after an injury will sideline him for two weeks, but he is still as exciting as ever. Adley can be a real difference-maker at a weak position and should still be drafted in almost every league in 2022.

Pick 182 – Alex Kirilloff: Alex Kirilloff is primed for a breakout this season, and I was absolutely crushed that I got sniped here with my pick-up next. His expected batting average, expected slugging, and expected wOBA were all higher than his actual numbers last year, and he played with an injury for most of his time with the Twins.

Rounds 19-22

Pick 217 – Spencer Torkelson: I love Torkelson at this spot. It is looking very possible that he’ll be in the Tigers' opening day lineup, and he has the plate discipline to make a big impact right away.

Pick 241 – Jeimer Candelario: A fellow Tiger that I love this late in a draft. From July 1^st to the end of the season, he hit .280 with a .301 expected batting average and 12 HRs. He also had a .373 WOBA and 138 wRC+.

Pick 250 – Kyle Lewis: This pick was made before we found out Lewis would not be ready for the start of the season as well as the addition of OF Jesse Winker to Seattle. I still think he is worth keeping an eye on, but I wouldn’t pick him at this spot today.

Rounds 23-26

Pick 192 – Jesus Luzardo: Luzardo is the perfect example of a late-round flier.  He hasn’t been good recently, but he is only 24-years-old and still has the ability to turn things around.

*One more note is on Luke Voit, who went undrafted. This draft happened before his trade to San Diego and his ADP is now at 231. He would have and should be drafted in a 12-team league.

And that'll do it! I feel pretty good about my team and was honored to get to draft alongside the brilliant baseball minds here at RotoBaller. Hopefully, this draft can still provide some insight into this crazy post-lockout time.

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