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2021 First Look Fantasy Values: Outfielders

ronald acuna fantasy baseball rankings MLB Injury news DFS lineup picks

The baseball offseason may officially begin with the end of the World Series but the projections offseason began last Thursday night with the release of the first Steamer projections for 2021. Created and maintained by mathematics teacher Jared Cross and his former students, Steamer remains the industry standard for non-aggregated projection systems, as well as forming the basis for many popular projection systems like RazzBall and Depth Charts.

Projections systems aren't perfect. If they were, we'd all be like Biff in Back to the Future II. Every year, different systems perform differently, in regards to accuracy and do better in some years better than others. Some do better with hitters, some with pitchers, and not just overall but within each category. Projections may not be perfect predictions (although, this guy...) but they can provide reasonable starting points, with Steamer consistently providing some of the best.

We started with first and second base, seeing the ascension of Baby Vlad to full-size status and Nick Madrigal standing tall. And then we tried to burn it all down with the most contentious topic America could ever discuss...Adalberto Mondesi, top-five (overall!) fantasy asset. Luckily, RotoBaller is all paid-up on our "Thunderdome" insurance policy, so now we can move on to the outfield and let me get back to doing what I do best...Waxing poetic about Randy "Macho Man" Savage-zarena.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Methodology

*If you've already read part one on 1B and 2B or part two on SS, thank you! Please skip ahead to p. 349 (Outfielder) to avoid rereading.

As mentioned, I converted  Steamer projections into fantasy dollars using a basic z-score method. As a refresher, z-scores is a popular statistical method for converting the totality of a player's scored categories, into a single number, by putting home runs, stolen bases, etc,  on a level playing field for comparison's sake. This is done by going category by category, calculating how each player's total compares to the rest of the league. Hitting 50 home runs may sound like a lot but not if everyone in the league hit at least 45 HR.

To calculate a z-score, you take the player's stat, subtract the average of the player pool, and then divide by the standard deviation of the player pool. For example, Steamer projects Freddie Freeman to hit 33 home runs, with the average of the player pool being 16.7 HR, with a standard deviation of 10.0.

(33 - 16.7)/10 = 1.6 z

A 0.0 z-score is equal to the league average, so Freeman's 1.6 z-score is saying that his 33 home runs are 1.6 standard deviations above the league average. This method is applied to each category (although the method is different for ratio stats) and each z-score is added together. This total z-score is then divided by the total z-scores in the player pool greater than zero and converted to dollars by dividing it by the total amount of fantasy dollars you have allocated for hitters or pitchers, using your chosen split.

This isn't the only valuation system and I'm not saying it's the best but it is reliable and widely used, much like Steamer. We're not trying to set these valuations and projections in stone, we just want to use them as an early and reliable touchstone as we dive into draft season. So, disagree! Whether in regards to playing time or talent rates, I'll be disagreeing plenty. But at least we'll be starting from a point of reasonableness.

 

Player Pool Caveats

When calculating z-scores, the player pool used is of major importance, with the pool getting watered down the bigger it gets. If you add 100 players who average 2 HR to a pool where the averages is 17 HR, the overall average is obviously going drop. For this exercise, I used a 150 PA minimum and a 12-team standard 5x5 roto league.

Feel free to quibble with the number; you should. I myself use a much more targeted player pool when making my own valuations, curated specifically for fantasy purposes. Pablo Sandoval is projected to hit seven home runs in 153 plate-appearances but do I really want him in my pool of players to be evaluated considering he has a massive negative fantasy value and won't be rostered?

But once again, I'm going for more of a neutral look in these valuations, so the player pool is set at a flat 150 PA, a total of 377 players. Just so you see how much player pool size can change valuations, moving to a 250 PA min leaves you with 305 batters (and the pool only loses eight players that were drafted in the top-430 of the 2 Early mock drafts). Ronald Acuna's top value jumps from $47 to $63; player pool matters.

The last caveat is about catchers, whom I treat as their own separate entity from the general player pool. We can get more into this when we get to them but the values for the other positions are being done without the dumpster fire of catching stats dragging everything down. This has a similar effect as limiting the pool by plate-appearances. For reference, Acuna's value with catchers in the pool is about two dollars lower than without.

Finally, a note about disagreeing and how to adjust. Projections are essentially made up of two building blocks. The playing time components (PA, IP) and the talent-rates, which is each projected stat divided by your chosen denominator (HR/PA, K/batter faced, etc). So keep in mind you might only be disagreeing with the overall value because of one or the other, not necessarily both, parts of the projection.

For example, Andres Gimenez is projected to be a below-replacement player but that's much more about his playing time than his projected talent. If he were to get 600 PA instead of his currently projected 421 PA, his line would be, 14 HR - 65 R - 64 RBI - 33 SB - .247 AVG, and his fantasy value would jump to $11.9, coming in as the #13 shortstop, just ahead of Marcus Semien.

 

Outfielders

Name pos ADP adp_rank stm_rank $ Val PA HR R RBI SB AVG
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF 2.6 2 1 49.1 683 42 115 99 28 .279
Juan Soto OF 5.4 4 2 41.8 651 38 104 109 12 .304
Cody Bellinger 1B,OF 13.8 6 3 36.8 642 40 101 112 12 .282
Mike Trout OF 4.6 3 4 36.4 671 40 116 105 10 .282
Christian Yelich OF 10.9 5 5 36.1 670 35 104 97 18 .279
Mookie Betts OF 2.2 1 6 33.2 685 32 110 88 19 .272
Eloy Jimenez OF 43.7 12 7 27.6 632 39 90 107 1 .288
Luis Robert OF 34.9 8 8 24.8 610 29 79 85 23 .260
Marcell Ozuna OF 37.4 9 9 24.5 647 35 90 104 5 .276
J.D. Martinez UT 80.9 19 10 24.4 651 35 94 106 3 .277
Kyle Tucker OF 38.6 10 11 23.0 618 30 84 91 19 .256
Bryce Harper OF 18.3 7 12 22.2 663 36 97 96 13 .249
Starling Marte OF 42.6 11 13 20.7 646 20 76 77 22 .268
Eddie Rosario OF 97.9 23 14 19.8 630 30 83 100 5 .274
Randy Arozarena OF 116.8 30 15 19.6 627 25 80 78 21 .258
George Springer OF 59.6 15 16 19.3 639 32 97 81 7 .269
Byron Buxton OF 128.4 32 17 19.2 531 26 74 78 19 .264
Giancarlo Stanton UT 102.6 26 18 18.2 588 41 89 103 4 .250
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 94.8 22 19 17.8 618 29 79 91 8 .270
Charlie Blackmon OF 81.1 20 20 17.4 609 25 84 80 6 .284
Franmil Reyes UT 157 39 21 15.8 631 37 87 98 1 .260
Aaron Judge OF 57.2 13 22 15.2 609 36 96 88 6 .248
Alex Verdugo OF 134.1 35 23 15.1 615 16 81 72 8 .291
Michael Conforto OF 72.4 18 24 15.0 648 32 90 92 6 .255
Tommy Pham OF 102.2 25 25 14.6 575 21 80 71 15 .267
Trent Grisham OF 57.8 14 26 14.3 639 24 90 74 15 .253
Anthony Santander OF 184.9 47 27 14.2 639 30 83 90 5 .262
Max Kepler OF 166.8 41 28 13.9 668 31 99 84 7 .250
Michael Brantley OF 145.2 37 29 13.1 606 18 75 79 5 .289
Nick Castellanos OF 85.3 21 30 11.1 651 28 87 87 3 .259
Victor Reyes OF 223.7 55 31 10.2 591 12 69 56 18 .273
Teoscar Hernandez OF 64.1 16 32 9.8 614 31 79 88 9 .240
Victor Robles OF 163.6 40 33 9.3 594 16 68 64 22 .250
Wil Myers OF 111.7 28 34 9.0 622 27 78 81 13 .239
Ian Happ OF 143.2 36 35 8.9 636 29 87 80 9 .240
Jorge Soler OF 126.7 31 36 8.7 616 33 83 89 3 .245
Andrew Benintendi OF 220.6 54 37 8.6 622 17 83 68 13 .257
Randal Grichuk OF 184.3 46 38 8.5 618 32 81 93 3 .246
Ryan Mountcastle 1B,OF 156.7 38 39 8.3 551 24 67 78 3 .275
Ramon Laureano OF 131.9 34 40 7.5 625 23 77 76 11 .248
Andrew McCutchen OF 207.4 51 41 7.2 628 26 87 69 9 .245
Lorenzo Cain OF 265.9 67 42 6.7 604 13 73 56 16 .262
Austin Hays OF 242.2 61 43 6.4 548 23 66 68 11 .255
Kyle Schwarber OF 192.9 49 44 5.9 547 33 79 82 4 .238
Raimel Tapia OF 248 64 45 5.7 557 10 64 55 14 .275
Mike Yastrzemski OF 115.2 29 46 5.0 664 22 84 72 8 .247
Joc Pederson OF 337.6 78 47 4.9 527 29 76 73 4 .249
Bryan Reynolds OF 287.4 71 48 4.5 596 18 71 68 6 .267
Joey Gallo OF 131 33 49 4.3 638 39 85 94 6 .209
Corey Dickerson OF 340 81 50 4.3 573 20 67 69 5 .267
Avisail Garcia OF 367 97 51 4.1 593 21 70 71 8 .254
Mark Canha OF 227.2 56 52 3.9 632 23 79 80 5 .247
Clint Frazier OF 190.1 48 53 3.7 579 25 73 78 6 .245
A.J. Pollock OF - 54 3.2 540 25 69 74 7 .245
Aaron Hicks OF 238.7 60 55 2.7 611 24 81 76 8 .234
Justin Upton OF 353.4 91 56 2.6 572 28 73 81 5 .237
Leody Taveras OF 265.4 66 57 2.5 577 12 66 51 21 .244
Austin Meadows OF 69.1 17 58 2.4 471 20 63 60 10 .256
Josh Naylor OF 382.2 100 59 2.1 490 17 62 63 4 .278
Hunter Dozier 1B,OF 218.2 53 60 1.8 636 21 76 78 5 .246
Myles Straw OF 356 93 61 1.4 490 4 54 42 26 .252
Willie Calhoun OF 272 69 62 0.9 555 23 66 72 2 .257
Dylan Carlson OF 167.4 42 63 0.9 532 18 62 63 11 .249
David Peralta OF 300 73 64 0.8 553 18 64 69 2 .269
Mitch Haniger OF 332.3 77 65 0.5 607 24 77 68 7 .237
Alex Dickerson OF 283 70 66 -0.5 466 18 60 61 2 .275
Brandon Nimmo OF 230.7 57 67 -0.6 616 18 83 61 8 .240
Dominic Smith 1B,OF 101.6 24 68 -0.6 539 22 65 71 3 .252
Adam Duvall OF 271.4 68 69 -0.7 569 30 71 82 2 .231
Kevin Pillar OF 340.9 82 70 -0.9 506 15 56 59 10 .257
Adam Eaton OF 303.9 74 71 -1.2 508 12 65 51 9 .264
Alex Kirilloff OF 339.8 80 72 -1.6 427 14 53 54 6 .277
Stephen Piscotty OF 350.5 89 73 -2.2 541 21 64 69 4 .247
Kole Calhoun OF 213.4 52 74 -2.2 600 25 74 74 4 .232
Nick Senzel OF 232.9 59 75 -2.2 450 14 55 49 13 .252
Ryan Braun OF 403 104 76 -2.9 434 18 54 60 6 .257
Jason Heyward OF 338.2 79 77 -3.0 570 17 67 63 5 .250
Tyler Naquin OF - 78 -3.5 441 15 52 56 5 .268
Kevin Kiermaier OF 255 65 79 -3.5 503 15 54 55 16 .233
Manuel Margot OF 243.1 63 80 -3.6 405 10 46 43 17 .253
Kyle Lewis OF 102.7 27 81 -4.0 654 22 71 75 6 .229
Jackie Bradley Jr. OF 356.3 94 82 -4.4 561 20 65 65 10 .226
Harrison Bader OF 357 95 83 -5.5 495 17 57 56 11 .233
Robbie Grossman OF 326 76 84 -5.6 494 12 59 51 9 .250
JaCoby Jones OF 402 103 85 -5.8 538 16 61 56 11 .233
Yasiel Puig OF 242.2 62 86 -6.2 353 15 44 49 9 .255
David Dahl OF 297.4 72 87 -6.8 413 14 50 51 6 .258
Franchy Cordero OF 396 102 88 -7.2 378 14 46 48 7 .259
Dexter Fowler OF - 89 -7.8 576 18 66 60 8 .225
Andrew Stevenson OF 351.3 90 90 -7.8 488 8 51 45 11 .253
Gregory Polanco OF 364 96 91 -8.0 458 19 53 57 8 .229
Cristian Pache OF 346.9 83 92 -8.5 480 11 52 51 8 .248
D.J. Stewart OF - 93 -9.0 400 17 50 51 5 .243
Shogo Akiyama OF 355.4 92 94 -9.3 391 9 47 38 8 .264
Josh Reddick OF - 95 -9.4 426 12 48 49 3 .264
Roman Quinn OF 347 84 96 -9.6 362 8 39 35 19 .231
Brett Gardner OF 409 107 97 -9.6 452 13 53 49 8 .239
Jesse Winker OF 178.4 45 98 -9.7 347 14 46 44 2 .271
Nomar Mazara OF 407.2 106 99 -10.3 402 17 49 55 2 .246
Jo Adell OF 201.6 50 100 -11.3 487 16 52 56 6 .230
Shin-Soo Choo OF 375.3 98 101 -11.5 433 13 56 41 8 .233
Anthony Alford OF - 102 -11.7 411 9 41 39 16 .227
Oscar Mercado OF 349.2 88 103 -12.0 330 8 39 35 11 .250
Yairo Munoz OF - 104 -12.6 309 9 37 36 8 .259
Delino DeShields OF 417 109 105 -12.6 380 5 42 33 16 .234
Christin Stewart OF - 106 -12.8 437 18 51 54 1 .235
Tim Locastro OF - 107 -13.2 346 6 40 32 12 .246
Nick Markakis OF 176 43 108 -13.3 376 8 42 42 2 .270
Trey Mancini OF 231 58 109 -13.6 309 14 41 41 1 .261
Adam Haseley OF 349 87 110 -14.0 391 10 42 42 4 .254
Ian Desmond OF - 111 -14.9 352 12 40 41 5 .242
Aristides Aquino OF - 112 -15.1 288 16 36 42 4 .234
Jake Bauers OF - 113 -15.5 309 11 37 37 6 .242
Jace Peterson OF - 114 -15.8 365 8 40 37 8 .238
Jay Bruce OF - 115 -16.2 318 16 39 45 2 .232
Adam Engel OF - 116 -16.2 393 9 42 41 8 .230
Jordan Luplow OF - 117 -16.3 300 11 37 38 4 .245
Chas McCormick OF - 118 -16.8 355 8 39 36 7 .239
Sam Hilliard OF 348.6 85 119 -17.3 282 10 32 34 7 .236
Edward Olivares OF 380.3 99 120 -17.5 260 6 28 28 8 .255
Harold Castro OF - 121 -17.6 379 5 36 35 4 .258
Jose Marmolejos OF 415 108 122 -18.2 350 11 36 39 2 .245
Matt Kemp UT - 123 -18.9 317 13 36 39 2 .233
Tyler O'Neill OF 348.9 86 124 -19.2 266 13 32 36 3 .230
Austin Slater OF 311.6 75 125 -20.3 239 7 28 25 5 .251
Rusney Castillo OF - 126 -20.7 250 5 26 26 4 .263
Mallex Smith OF - 127 -21.7 182 2 22 15 11 .241
Taylor Ward OF - 128 -22.1 234 7 27 27 4 .240
Jarred Kelenic OF 177.8 44 129 -22.6 223 7 24 25 5 .236
Jake Marisnick OF - 130 -23.0 213 8 24 25 5 .228

We start with a big disagreement right at the jump, as Steamer strongly disagrees with Mookie Betts being on top of the 2 Early mocks. Well, pardon me but I think I strongly disagree with Steamer. I'm not saying he's my number-one but these projections feel pretty light, especially on batting average.

Since when is Betts a .272 hitter?

Season PA HR R RBI SB AVG wOBA wRC+
2014 213 5 34 18 7 .291 .361 129
2015 654 18 92 77 21 .291 .351 120
2016 730 31 122 113 26 .318 .379 136
2017 712 24 101 102 26 .264 .339 107
2018 614 32 129 80 30 .346 .449 185
2019 706 29 135 80 16 .295 .380 135
2020 246 16 47 39 10 .292 .390 149
Steamer 685 32 110 88 19 .272 .372 137

Projecting Betts to a .284 AVG instead (seven more hits) and keeping everything else the same, would move Betts from sixth to third, finishing behind only Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr.

Speaking of Ronald Acuna Jr., he is in a place where Steamer and ADP definitely agree on his phenomenoness. The only difference is that Steamer thinks he's not only the number-one outfielder but exists in a class of value all by himself:

Name ADP PA HR R RBI SB AVG $ Val
Ronald Acuna Jr. 2.6 683 42 115 99 28 .279 49.1
Juan Soto 5.4 651 38 104 109 12 .304 41.8
Cody Bellinger 13.8 642 40 101 112 12 .282 36.8
Mike Trout 4.6 671 40 116 105 10 .282 36.4
Christian Yelich 10.9 670 35 104 97 18 .279 36.1

Remember when people were worried about Acuna after he started slow, hitting just one home run and stealing one base in his first 15 games and slashing .214/.353/.357? That worry was quickly forgotten after Acuna proceeded to hit 8 HR in his next 11 games, finishing the year with a .413 wOBA and 157 wRC+.

But he also added an all-new wrinkle to his game...Did you know that he had an 18.8% BB%?  There is zero doubt about his power and Atlanta doesn't seem inclined to take away his green light on the basepaths anytime soon. So pitchers can either challenge Acuna and take their chances with the wicked hit stick, or put him on and let him potentially steal his way around. Regardless, that's fantasy gold for us, players.

Just because Juan Soto comes in second in fantasy values doesn't make him any sort of second fiddle. Having only recently turned 22-years-old, Soto continues to put up silly numbers, and going to his Baseball Savant page shows you a sea of red:

Just for good measure, Soto also had a .494 xwOBAcon and 20.9% BB% that was in the top-1% in 2020, in addition to the 1% accolades above, as well as a 14.3% K% that was in the top-9%. He just doesn't have any holes. Like, at all. And no, not on the basepaths either, as Soto continues to be a crafty base stealer. He had 12 SB (1 CS) in 2019 and then had 6 SB (2 CS) in just 47 games in 2020. Steamer projects 12 SB in 2021 but I see that as more of a floor and think 15+ SB is at least on the table.

Well, Steamer thinks the White Sox outfield is going to be pretty decent, with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert clocking in as the sixth- and seventh-best fantasy outfielders.  Robert and his speed potential is going to make him more appealing to fantasy players, in fact going about nine picks before Jimenez in early ADP. But Steamer sees Eloy as the better overall option, being projected significantly better in every category besides stolen bases, including a nearly 30-point advantage in batting average.

Jimenez raised his average exit velocity on FB/LD from 96.6 mph to 97.7 mph and his barrel-rate from 12.8% to a 16.4% Brl%, putting him in the top-4% of baseball. His K% and BB% both roughly stayed the same from his rookie year, as did his xSLG, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon, but his 55.7% hard-hit rate was an eight-point increase - and in the top-2% of hitters.

But Jimenez didn't just hit the ball harder, with more barrels. He did it across all pitch groups while seeing fewer fastballs, more breaking balls, and still passing with flying colors. Looking at his x-stats, his performance stayed steady against breaking and offspeed pitches but saw significant jumps against fastballs, even as he saw less of them.

Besides that, Jimenez's exit velocities on fastballs and offspeed pitches saw big jumps, giving more indicators that he's not getting fooled by non-fastballs and isn't missing when he does see one:

Year Type % xBA xSLG wOBA xwOBA EV
2019 Breaking 38.2 .228 .464 .328 .308 90.2
2020 Breaking 43.3 .232 .465 .313 .300 90.8
change 5.1 .004 .001 -.015 -.008 0.6
2019 Offspeed 11.6 .236 .400 .329 .300 85.6
2020 Offspeed 11.4 .248 .403 .292 .304 87.3
change -0.2 .012 .003 -.037 .004 1.7
2019 Fastballs 50.1 .305 .593 .357 .396 92.6
2020 Fastballs 45.3 .337 .647 .432 .411 94.3
change -4.8 .032 .054 .075 .015 1.7

No one has ever paid off for me as well as Marcel Ozuna did in 2020 after I ran my mouth on him incessantly (and obnoxiously) throughout the offseason and drafted him on literally every last one of my redraft teams. The payoff was handsome, in terms of fantasy value, with Ozuna earning as a virtual consensus top-five hitter, hitting 18 home runs in 60 games, with 38 runs, 56 RBI, and a .338 AVG. More like, Boom-zuna, am I right? (I slay myself).

There's no sneaking up on your competition in 2021, however, with Ozuna clocking in at a 37 ADP. Steamer ( and me) still thinks that's a fair price, as the projections and ADP both have him as the ninth-best outfielder and a top-25 hitter. The biggest question is where the current free agent will land, as Ozuna spent 2020 in a favorable ballpark with two of baseball's best hitters hitting in front of him.

***We Now Interrupt Our Regularly Scheduled Programming to Bring To You the Latest Player That Nicklaus Will Talk About Incessantly From Now Until Forever Or Until He Runs Out of Gas. Which is Never...We're Sorry***

In a way, I'm more than a little annoyed that the entire world knows about Randy Arozarena after he broke records for the most home runs, hits, and total bases in a single playoff run. After following him through the minors as a Cardinals fan and then being furious that Tampa Bay rooked John Mozeliak again, I had fully planned on sneakily drafting my man Savage-zarena on every team in 2021. Alas, the only cheap profit I'm going to earn is picking up him up for pennies of FAAB after the Rays traded Jose Martinez, because Randy won't be going cheap after hitting 10 home runs during Tampa's postseason run.

Putting my man(dy) crush aside, I'm not the only one that thinks Arozarena is the real deal because Steamer essentially sees him as Luis Robert -lite ("Now without the 22% SwStr%, only while supplies last!)

I'll just leave this here:

Steamer 2021 ADP PA HR R RBI SB AVG
Luis Robert 35 610 29 79 85 23 .260
Randy Arozarena 117 627 25 80 78 21 .258

Their early ADP suggests that fantasy players believe in 2020's production and are ready to move Trent Grisham and Teoscar Hernandez into a new tier of superstar, but Steamer is projecting caution. That's the rub with projections, isn't it though? Sometimes they can be slow on the uptick with players that either lack a ton of major league plate appearances or have recently leveled up in talent.

In Grisham's case, Steamer really only doubts the speed, projecting him for just 15 SB after he stole 10 bases in the abbreviated 2020 season. If you keep everything else the same but bump him to 25 SB (not outrageous considering he was pacing for 27 SB in 2020) than Grisham's value would jump from OF 26 (#58 overall hitter) to OF 13 (#32 overall hitter). This is right in line with his current draft price of OF 14 and the #36 overall hitter.

There is a much bigger sample for Hernandez, who lit up for 16 HR in 50 games, after hitting a combined 48 home runs in 259 games in 2018-2019 after coming over from Houston in a 2017 trade. Hernandez showing that much pop isn't a big surprise, as he's always had good exit velocities and hard-hit rates. But a .289 AVG in 2020 after a .230 AVG and .239 AVG the previous two seasons, is quite a leap.

That leap, however, is backed with a lot of x-shininess, with Hernandez's large jumps in average, slugging, and wOBA all backed up by their expected-counterparts:

Season PA BA xBA SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA
2018 523 .239 .238 .468 .506 .328 .347
2019 464 .230 .220 .472 .455 .325 .318
2020 207 .289 .295 .579 .613 .384 .381

Never soft-hitting, Hernandez took his hardness to a new level in 2020:

2019 2020 +/-
Brl% 11.7 18.0 +6.3
Max EV (mph) 112.1 115.9 +3.8
Avg EV (mph) 91.2 93.3 +2.1
FB/LD EV (mph) 96.2 98.2 +2.0
Hard% 42.3 53.1 +10.8

Having an elite barrel-rate and exit velocities doesn't guarantee success, or else Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, and Gary Sanchez would be the best players in baseball. But it's a solid start. What's just as inspiring is Hernandez's continued improvements against the different pitch grouping, particularly against offspeed pitches and fastballs:

Year Type

%

pa BA xBA SLG xSLG wOBA

xwOBA

2018 Breaking 32.6 153 .250 .217 .472 .435 .322 .297
2019 Breaking 32.2 164 .179 .175 .404 .367 .271 .261
2020 Breaking 32.5 65 .136 .190 .271 .331 .204 .245
Year Type

%

pa BA xBA SLG xSLG wOBA

xwOBA

2018 Offspeed 9.9 52 .188 .217 .313 .350 .236 .279
2019 Offspeed 10.1 52 .224 .210 .388 .325 .263 .247
2020 Offspeed 14.6 37 .286 .262 .514 .496 .350 .327
Year Type

%

pa BA xBA SLG xSLG wOBA

xwOBA

2018 Fastballs 57.5 318 .243 .253 .493 .568 .346 .382
2019 Fastballs 57.7 247 .267 .255 .539 .546 .373 .371
2020 Fastballs 52.9 105 .385 .372 .792 .832 .496 .486

Steamer definitely doesn't agree with his early draft price. Hernandez was drafted around the 40th hitter (64th-overall) in the 2 Early mocks but Steamer projects him as just the 81st-hitter. Only 31 home runs feel light but the big discrepancy is the projected .240 AVG that his drafters have to be assuming is going to be a lot higher.

Speaking of breakouts that Steamer doesn't believe in, Dominic Smith is projected wa-aay below where he's being drafted around pick-100. I disagree pretty strongly with Steamer here, both in terms of his talent and playing-time projections. First, his projected 550 PA feels super-light after he took over full-time duties in New York last season and finished with 199 PA in 50 games. Granted, that was with a DH that the Mets won't have available* in 2021 but considering his competition, I think Smith's bat keeps him in the lineup most every day.

Update: Shortly after this was published, Buster Olney reported ($) that the universal DH is now a "safe bet" for 2021. This would seem to virtually assure that Smith has an everyday role.

In terms of talent, Smith was smoking the ball all season long. He had a .304 xBA (top-5%), .568 xSLG (top-6%), .374 xwOBA (top-8%), and .454 xwOBAcon (top-8%). And while moving from 88.3 mph to 89.8 mph was only a modest boost for his average exit-velocity, it was much more impressive seeing his max EV go from 108.5 mph to 110.7 mph and his EV on FB/LD jump from 91.8 mph to 94.9 mph. All in all, Smith ended with a 46.8% hard-hit rate that was up 12-points, not to mention a barrel-rate that rose nearly five-points to 13.5%.

The power is for real and so is the batting average, in my opinion. I really wish that his ADP wasn't already in the top-100 but I'm still pretty sure that I'll have plenty of exposure. Especially because of his dual-eligibility and the fact that I think first base is sneaky weak. I'm sorry but I'm just not excited about relying on Pete Alonso, Luke Voit, Paul Goldschmidt, or Matt Olson at their current ADP. In drafts where I don't end up with a premium option like Freddie Freeman or Jose Abreu, picking up Smith at his current price is going to feel pretty juicy.

This is the part of the article where I very quietly mention that one of my 2020 favorites, Victor Reyes, is projected by Steamer to return roughly the same value as Nick Castellanos. And this is the part where I quietly tiptoe away.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




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Giannis Antetokounmpo6 hours ago

Good For Thursday's Game
T.J. McFarland6 hours ago

Re-Signs With The A's
Brandon Miller7 hours ago

Tagged As Probable For Friday
Mattias Janmark7 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day With Undisclosed Injury
A.J. Brown7 hours ago

Looks Ready For Week 10
Iván Herrera7 hours ago

Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages To Split Opportunities Behind The Plate
Miles Bridges7 hours ago

Won't Play On Friday
Alex Turcotte7 hours ago

Remains Sidelined Thursday
7 hours ago

Alex Bregman Could Play Second Base In 2025
Tee Higgins7 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday Night
Zach LaVine7 hours ago

Doubtful For Thursday's Game
Artem Zub7 hours ago

Rejoins Senators Lineup Thursday
Devin Vassell7 hours ago

Could Make Season Debut On Saturday
Tyler Seguin7 hours ago

Expected Back Versus Blackhawks
Wendell Carter Jr.7 hours ago

Listed As Out For Friday
Brayden Point7 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday
Andre Jackson Jr.7 hours ago

Expected To Start On Thursday
Cale Makar7 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
8 hours ago

Red Sox, Orioles Looking At Teoscar Hernandez
Kyle Pitts8 hours ago

Remains Limited Participant On Thursday
8 hours ago

Mets To Meet With Juan Soto Soon
Drake London8 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
Aleksei Kolosov8 hours ago

Injured In Pregame Skate On Thursday
Xavier Legette8 hours ago

Aggravates Past Injury, Expected To Play On Sunday
Jake Walman8 hours ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Austin Seibert8 hours ago

Limited On Thursday
Anthony Mantha8 hours ago

Headed To Injured Reserve
Auston Matthews9 hours ago

' Status Up In The Air
Brian Robinson Jr.9 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
Matvei Michkov9 hours ago

Will Be A Healthy Scratch On Thursday
Keaton Mitchell9 hours ago

Making Season Debut On Thursday
DeVonta Smith10 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Thursday
Adam Thielen10 hours ago

Not Participating In Thursday's Practice
Darius Slayton10 hours ago

Not Expected To Make Trip To Germany
Keon Coleman11 hours ago

A "DNP" On Thursday
Garrett Crochet11 hours ago

An Offseason Trade Candidate
11 hours ago

Ha-Seong Kim Drawing Plenty Of Buzz At GM Meetings
12 hours ago

Willy Adames Willing To Play A Different Position
Tyrese Maxey12 hours ago

Expected To Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Dylan Larkin14 hours ago

Bags Two Points In Win Over Chicago
Logan Thompson14 hours ago

Continues Winning Ways With Capitals
Dylan Strome14 hours ago

Stays Hot With Two-Assist Effort
Ivan Barbashev14 hours ago

Records Three Assists Wednesday
Tommy Novak14 hours ago

Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Dylan Holloway14 hours ago

Avoids Serious Injury
Jonathan Mogbo15 hours ago

Exits With Hip Problem Wednesday
Tyrese Maxey15 hours ago

Makes Precautionary Exit Wednesday
Jalen Duren15 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day With Ankle Injury
Isaiah Collier15 hours ago

Considered Questionable Thursday
Jordan Clarkson15 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Thursday
Joel Embiid16 hours ago

On Track To Make Season Debut On Tuesday
Willson Contreras1 day ago

Will Transition To 1B/DH Role In 2025
Lauri Markkanen1 day ago

Questionable Versus Milwaukee
Giannis Antetokounmpo1 day ago

In Danger Of Missing Another Game
Ja Morant1 day ago

Injures Hamstring, Leaves Game In Third Quarter
Mookie Betts1 day ago

To Play Infield For The Dodgers In 2025
Bradley Beal1 day ago

Active On Wednesday
Josh Giddey1 day ago

To Play On Wednesday
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Out Week-To-Week With A Knee Problem
Bryan Rust1 day ago

Logs Full Practice On Wednesday
Kevin Hayes1 day ago

Misses Practice With An Upper-Body Injury
Royce Lewis1 day ago

Might See More Time At Second Base
1 day ago

Alex Bregman Has Bone Chip Removed From Elbow
Kyle Hendricks1 day ago

Angels Sign Kyle Hendricks
Max Greyserman1 day ago

Earns Highest DraftKings Salary For WWT Championship
Harry Hall1 day ago

In Solid Form Heading To Cabo
PGA1 day ago

Matti Schmid On Fire Ahead Of WWT Championship
Jhonattan Vegas1 day ago

A Safe Play At WWT Championship
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Looks To Contend At WWT Championship
Patrick Fishburn1 day ago

A Volatile Option At El Cardonal
Michael Kim1 day ago

Aims For Back-To-Back Top-10 Finishes At WWT Championship
Charley Hoffman2 days ago

Tough To Trust At WWT Championship
Adam Svensson2 days ago

A Risky Play In Mexico
Daniel Berger2 days ago

Looks To Keep Cuts-Made Streak Alive In Mexico
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Hopes To Steady The Ship At World Wide Technology Championship
San Diego Padres2 days ago

Padres Nearing Contract Extension With Manager Mike Shildt
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2 days ago

Could Be Moved Back To Second Base
2 days ago

Astros Have Had "Productive" Talks With Alex Bregman
2 days ago

Rangers Decline 2025 Option On Andrew Chafin
Camilo Doval2 days ago

Generating Interest
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Undergoes Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery
Chandler Phillips2 days ago

Attempts To Keep Final-Round Form This Week
Neal Shipley2 days ago

Past Five Tournaments Make Him An Interesting DFS Option
Austin Eckroat2 days ago

Wants To Shake Off Some More Rust In Mexico
Rico Hoey2 days ago

Needs The Putter To Work In Mexico
J.J. Spaun2 days ago

Tries To Keep Second Half Rolling In Mexico
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Hopes To Continue Riding A Hot Putter In Mexico
Erik Van Rooyen2 days ago

Erik van Rooyen Tries To Defend WWT Title
Lucas Glover2 days ago

Well-Rested Heading Into WWT Championship
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Hopes To Continue Good Form In Mexico
Keith Mitchell2 days ago

An Unappealing Play At World Wide Technology Championship
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Wins At Martinsville And Has Chance To Earn Second Straight Championship
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Penalized At Martinsville, Removed From Championship Four
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Not A Factor At Martinsville And Looks Ahead To Phoenix
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Misses Advancing Through Playoffs Despite Top-Three Finish
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

Has A Solid Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Loses Out On Winning At Martinsville
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Drops Decision Matchup
Erin Blanchfield4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Dustin Stoltzfus4 days ago

Gets First-Round Knockout At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault4 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC Edmonton
Trevin Giles4 days ago

Losses Third Fight In A Row
Mike Malott4 days ago

Wins Decision At UFC Edmonton
NASCAR4 days ago

Speeding Penalty Foils Martin Truex Jr.'s Last Realistic Shot At Winning
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Fails To Advance To Championship 4 But Runs Well
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Earns Best Oval Finish at Martinsville
William Byron4 days ago

Tentatively In Championship 4 Pending Ruling On Manufacturer Orders
MMA4 days ago

Ariane Lipski Submitted At UFC Edmonton
Jasmine Jasudavicius4 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado4 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Brendson Ribeiro4 days ago

Edges Out Split Decision At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi4 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

Dominates At UFC Edmonton
Daniel Suarez5 days ago

Will Start 20th At Martinsville
Zane Smith5 days ago

Might Be An Underrated Value Play For Martinsville
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Is A Top DFS Recommendation For Martinsville Lineups
Joey Logano5 days ago

Will Be One To Watch At Martinsville
Brad Keselowski5 days ago

Should DFS Players Rely On Brad Keselowski For Martinsville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar5 days ago

Is A Great DFS Option For All Martinsville DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Is Ty Gibbs Worth Rostering At Martinsville This Week For DFS?
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Could Have A Top-20 Performance At Martinsville
William Byron5 days ago

Might Be Usable Only In DFS Tournaments At Martinsville
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster Chris Buescher At Martinsville?
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Expect A Solid Top-10 Performance From Alex Bowman At Martinsville

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