Zero RB Fantasy Football Middle-Round Running Back Draft Targets

August 16, 2024

Corbin's overview of Zero RB fantasy football draft picks and strategies for 2024, including middle-round running back ZeroRB draft targets and value picks.

Draft strategies like zero running back (Zero RB) can generate uncomfortable conversations and implicit biases. Like any draft strategy, we should consider scoring and roster formats. The idea behind it relates to being anti-fragile when drafting a team. Shawn Siegele referenced the anti-fragile framework and Zero RB as something beyond resilience and improves or grows with volatility.

That sounds like fantasy football, where injuries and other factors make the environment random and volatile, even after analyzing many possible scenarios and outcomes. This is especially true in best ball leagues or deeper formats where it becomes harder to replace the starter at a given position, specifically at running back.

We'll discuss the Zero RB strategy and when might be the best time to deploy the strategy. Plus, a look at a few early Zero RB targets using Underdog ADP since it's a robust ADP with thousands of drafts.

What is Zero RB?

Zero RB and antifragility should be synonymous at this point, but drafting a Zero RB team can make drafters uncomfortable. We could argue all day on defining Zero RB, but we'll focus on drafting wide receivers, an elite tight end, and an elite quarterback in the first handful of rounds. RotoViz coined the phrase "win the flex," suggesting we want to dominate the flex positions, which typically include wide receivers.

While we could mine for value in the running back dead zone, it's typically more profitable to draft receivers. We'll preferably use the Zero RB strategy with 0.5 PPR and PPR scoring and rosters with three wide receivers and multiple flex spots. Running backs with projected volume provide the floor, but receivers have the floor and ceiling in PPR formats.

It doesn't mean avoiding all running backs in the first few rounds. Like any strategy, Zero RB should be fluid, meaning we want flexibility with our drafting and rosters because one or two players shouldn't make or break our fantasy squads. For example, several running backs had high hit rates after the first two rounds, including Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Joe Mixon, and Rachaad White.

The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) best ball data shows us the top win rates by position. For context, the FFPC best ball format uses two receivers and two flex spots, ideal for the Zero RB strategy.

When using the data from 2017 to 2023, many running backs in the first two rounds highlighted the players with the top win rates. Those names included Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey (three times), Alvin Kamara, and Jonathan Taylor. Nine running backs out of the top-50 players had the highest win rates with an ADP inside the top two rounds. Meanwhile, 14 running backs out of the top-100 players in win rates had an ADP inside the top-24 picks from 2017 to 2023.

Times have changed in the past three seasons (2021-2023), with six out of the top-100 players in win rates being running backs drafted in the top two rounds; all came among the top 50 in win rate. The running backs with the top win rates mostly came from the later rounds, besides McCaffrey in 2023. It's rare to find early-round running backs payoff like McCaffrey. The only other first-round running backs with high win rates over the past three seasons include Jonathan Taylor (2021) and Austin Ekeler (2021). Meanwhile, mostly receivers, late-round running backs, and a few tight ends top the win-rate leaderboard.

The recent data aligns with using the Zero RB strategy if fantasy managers feel comfortable building an anti-fragile squad. We'll touch on a few Zero RB targets. For reference, we'll use FFPC ADP since it's a robust group of managers drafting all year round, with the scoring hinting at a Zero RB approach.

We'll use the end of the sixth round as a cutoff point since, theoretically, drafters would fill the wide receiver, flex, tight end, and quarterback spots before considering a running back. Again, it's not meant to be inflexible, but we'll use that as an ADP marker to consider early Zero RB targets.

Middle Round (Rounds 7-12) Zero RB Targets

Najee Harris, RB, PIT
FFPC ADP: 81.8, RB24

It's typically profitable to target players as we would in dynasty leagues, but Najee Harris might be one of the exceptions. In past years, Harris's ADP sat in the first few rounds, but it plummeted in 2024 to the middle rounds. Besides the narrative around Arthur Smith joining the Steelers as their offensive coordinator to establish the run, Harris posted the best underlying metrics of his career. That's evident in Harris's career-best 3.03 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) and 25.9 percent breakaway rush percentage (BAY%).

From an opportunity standpoint, Harris's expected points per game (EP/G) fell to a career low of 11.8 (No. 28) compared to 14.2 (2022) and 18.6 (2021). That indicates the role and opportunity for Harris gradually declined from his rookie season. The market seems to love Jaylen Warren, given his seventh-best target share (15 percent) and 13th-ranked receiving EP/G in 2023. Warren likely possesses the third-down pass-catching role, but Harris fits the offensive coordinator's archetype of an early-round grinder with enough receiving skills.

While we prefer the receiving profile of Warren, Smith, as the offensive coordinator, preferred to establish the run in his time as the Falcons head coach. If Russell Wilson is the starting quarterback, we might see him target running backs more often than Justin Fields. Though Wilson ranked 11th in rush attempts per game (5.3) at quarterback, he'll likely opt to throw more often than Fields would as a starter.

The chart above shows the team-level receiving metrics for the running-back position over the past three seasons. Ignore the 2021 season for the Falcons with Smith as head coach because they had Matt Ryan checking down to Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis. All this discussion might be a moot point because Smith seems to do illogical things with the offense to frustrate fantasy managers. We'll want a piece of the Steelers' backfield since the Falcons ranked fourth (2023), 19th (2022), and fifth (2021) in EP/G to the running back position under Smith. That suggests Harris and Warren will be in for a massive season in 2024.

D'Andre Swift, RB, CHI
FFPC ADP: 77.7, RB23

Another year, another team, and we're back in on Swift. In 2022, Jamaal Williams stole tons of goal-line touchdowns, though Swift had a whopping 7.1 receiving expected points per game (EP/G). That indicates Swift boasted an elite receiving profile at running back, ranking ninth with the Lions. Swift saw his lowest number of targets with the Eagles, as expected, with a rushing quarterback in Jalen Hurts.

However, Hurts stole tons of goal-line scores from Swift, yet Swift garnered career bests in carries (229) and rushing yards (1,049), with a similar 12.7 EP/G (No. 23) last season. The Bears acquired Swift and he joins a revamped offense with Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron joining the team.

As offensive coordinator with the Seahawks, Waldron's offense ranked ninth in pass rate (60 percent), 22nd in rush rate (40 percent), and last in plays per game (60). For context, the Seahawks passed 63 percent of the time (No. 5) and ran 61 plays per game (No. 30) in 2023. The three Bears receivers, DJ Moore (28.2 ADP), Allen (53.6 ADP), and Odunze (65.3 ADP), have been the priority in ADP, so we could see Swift's price fall a little further.

Williams flashed rushing skills in college, but the Bears could project as an offense that leans on the passing game more. In 2023, the Bears ranked 30th in pass rate (52 percent), ahead of the 49ers and Ravens due to Justin Fields averaging the second-most rush attempts per game (9.5) behind Hurts at quarterback. If Williams rushes often, it limits the pass attempts and opportunities for Swift and their pass-catchers.

Over the past three seasons, Swift ranks 15th in EP/G, with the 12th-most high-value touches in 2023. Last season, Swift paid off as a middle-round Zero RB target, and he's priced even cheaper in 2024. The Zero RB strategy suggests not anchoring our drafts based on one player like Swift and being anti-fragile. So, take stabs on the Bears backfield with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson way later if you miss Swift.

Kendre Miller, RB, NO
FFPC ADP: 163.7, RB54

We gave you two middle-round Zero RB targets, but let's highlight a second-year running back who hardly played due to injuries and Kamara dominating the opportunities. Miller ranked fourth in snap share (18 percent) behind Kamara, Jamaal Williams (36 percent), and Tony Jones (33 percent). It's a small sample of 41 rush attempts, but Miller rocked 3.12 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) and an 11.5 percent breakaway rush rate.

Part of why Miller is an intriguing Zero RB target involves his prospect profile. In Miller's final college season at TCU, he rushed for nearly 1,400 yards (1,399) and 17 scores, translating into a 41 percent RB Dominator. The advanced metrics align with the juicy production and film, evidenced by his 3.64 YAC/Att and 44.8 percent breakaway rush percentage. That indicates Miller creates yards after contact while having the explosiveness to make big plays.

He dominated as a rusher but lacked the receiving profile, with his 3 percent receiving yard market share. That doesn't mean Miller can't garner targets, but it could suggest he's below average in pass blocking, which was the case in college. We don't expect Kamara to fade away since he soaks up the rushing and elite receiving volume. However, Miller might be an early-down rusher for the Saints if Kamara misses time like a light version of Khalil Herbert.

Summary

Using a Zero RB strategy works better in formats that reward points for receptions, boosting wide receivers. That's especially true when the roster size involves three or more receivers and more than one flex spot. The data points toward using the strategy in Underdog and FFPC's best ball leagues, but it also works well in redraft formats. One of the goals is to draft an anti-fragile roster that thrives on volatility, and we should also have flexibility in our approach.

Since I wrote this article, Miller suffered a hamstring injury in training camp. That has led to his stock and optimism falling since Miller dealt with knee, hamstring, and ankle injuries throughout his brief NFL and collegiate career. Head Coach Dennis Allen has also expressed concern about Miller's ability to stay healthy. Don't overinvest, but we'll want a piece of the Saints' backfield since they ranked seventh in EP/G and fifth in team-level high-value touches, mainly via Kamara's heavy receiving workload.

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