X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Zero RB Fantasy Football Middle-Round Running Back Draft Targets

Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Corbin's overview of Zero RB fantasy football draft picks and strategies for 2024, including middle-round running back ZeroRB draft targets and value picks.

Draft strategies like zero running back (Zero RB) can generate uncomfortable conversations and implicit biases. Like any draft strategy, we should consider scoring and roster formats. The idea behind it relates to being anti-fragile when drafting a team. Shawn Siegele referenced the anti-fragile framework and Zero RB as something beyond resilience and improves or grows with volatility.

That sounds like fantasy football, where injuries and other factors make the environment random and volatile, even after analyzing many possible scenarios and outcomes. This is especially true in best ball leagues or deeper formats where it becomes harder to replace the starter at a given position, specifically at running back.

We'll discuss the Zero RB strategy and when might be the best time to deploy the strategy. Plus, a look at a few early Zero RB targets using Underdog ADP since it's a robust ADP with thousands of drafts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

What is Zero RB?

Zero RB and antifragility should be synonymous at this point, but drafting a Zero RB team can make drafters uncomfortable. We could argue all day on defining Zero RB, but we'll focus on drafting wide receivers, an elite tight end, and an elite quarterback in the first handful of rounds. RotoViz coined the phrase "win the flex," suggesting we want to dominate the flex positions, which typically include wide receivers.

While we could mine for value in the running back dead zone, it's typically more profitable to draft receivers. We'll preferably use the Zero RB strategy with 0.5 PPR and PPR scoring and rosters with three wide receivers and multiple flex spots. Running backs with projected volume provide the floor, but receivers have the floor and ceiling in PPR formats.

It doesn't mean avoiding all running backs in the first few rounds. Like any strategy, Zero RB should be fluid, meaning we want flexibility with our drafting and rosters because one or two players shouldn't make or break our fantasy squads. For example, several running backs had high hit rates after the first two rounds, including Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Joe Mixon, and Rachaad White.

The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) best ball data shows us the top win rates by position. For context, the FFPC best ball format uses two receivers and two flex spots, ideal for the Zero RB strategy.

When using the data from 2017 to 2023, many running backs in the first two rounds highlighted the players with the top win rates. Those names included Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey (three times), Alvin Kamara, and Jonathan Taylor. Nine running backs out of the top-50 players had the highest win rates with an ADP inside the top two rounds. Meanwhile, 14 running backs out of the top-100 players in win rates had an ADP inside the top-24 picks from 2017 to 2023.

Times have changed in the past three seasons (2021-2023), with six out of the top-100 players in win rates being running backs drafted in the top two rounds; all came among the top 50 in win rate. The running backs with the top win rates mostly came from the later rounds, besides McCaffrey in 2023. It's rare to find early-round running backs payoff like McCaffrey. The only other first-round running backs with high win rates over the past three seasons include Jonathan Taylor (2021) and Austin Ekeler (2021). Meanwhile, mostly receivers, late-round running backs, and a few tight ends top the win-rate leaderboard.

The recent data aligns with using the Zero RB strategy if fantasy managers feel comfortable building an anti-fragile squad. We'll touch on a few Zero RB targets. For reference, we'll use FFPC ADP since it's a robust group of managers drafting all year round, with the scoring hinting at a Zero RB approach.

We'll use the end of the sixth round as a cutoff point since, theoretically, drafters would fill the wide receiver, flex, tight end, and quarterback spots before considering a running back. Again, it's not meant to be inflexible, but we'll use that as an ADP marker to consider early Zero RB targets.

 

Middle Round (Rounds 7-12) Zero RB Targets

Najee Harris, RB, PIT
FFPC ADP: 81.8, RB24

It's typically profitable to target players as we would in dynasty leagues, but Najee Harris might be one of the exceptions. In past years, Harris's ADP sat in the first few rounds, but it plummeted in 2024 to the middle rounds. Besides the narrative around Arthur Smith joining the Steelers as their offensive coordinator to establish the run, Harris posted the best underlying metrics of his career. That's evident in Harris's career-best 3.03 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) and 25.9 percent breakaway rush percentage (BAY%).

From an opportunity standpoint, Harris's expected points per game (EP/G) fell to a career low of 11.8 (No. 28) compared to 14.2 (2022) and 18.6 (2021). That indicates the role and opportunity for Harris gradually declined from his rookie season. The market seems to love Jaylen Warren, given his seventh-best target share (15 percent) and 13th-ranked receiving EP/G in 2023. Warren likely possesses the third-down pass-catching role, but Harris fits the offensive coordinator's archetype of an early-round grinder with enough receiving skills.

While we prefer the receiving profile of Warren, Smith, as the offensive coordinator, preferred to establish the run in his time as the Falcons head coach. If Russell Wilson is the starting quarterback, we might see him target running backs more often than Justin Fields. Though Wilson ranked 11th in rush attempts per game (5.3) at quarterback, he'll likely opt to throw more often than Fields would as a starter.

The chart above shows the team-level receiving metrics for the running-back position over the past three seasons. Ignore the 2021 season for the Falcons with Smith as head coach because they had Matt Ryan checking down to Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis. All this discussion might be a moot point because Smith seems to do illogical things with the offense to frustrate fantasy managers. We'll want a piece of the Steelers' backfield since the Falcons ranked fourth (2023), 19th (2022), and fifth (2021) in EP/G to the running back position under Smith. That suggests Harris and Warren will be in for a massive season in 2024.

D'Andre Swift, RB, CHI
FFPC ADP: 77.7, RB23

Another year, another team, and we're back in on Swift. In 2022, Jamaal Williams stole tons of goal-line touchdowns, though Swift had a whopping 7.1 receiving expected points per game (EP/G). That indicates Swift boasted an elite receiving profile at running back, ranking ninth with the Lions. Swift saw his lowest number of targets with the Eagles, as expected, with a rushing quarterback in Jalen Hurts.

However, Hurts stole tons of goal-line scores from Swift, yet Swift garnered career bests in carries (229) and rushing yards (1,049), with a similar 12.7 EP/G (No. 23) last season. The Bears acquired Swift and he joins a revamped offense with Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron joining the team.

As offensive coordinator with the Seahawks, Waldron's offense ranked ninth in pass rate (60 percent), 22nd in rush rate (40 percent), and last in plays per game (60). For context, the Seahawks passed 63 percent of the time (No. 5) and ran 61 plays per game (No. 30) in 2023. The three Bears receivers, DJ Moore (28.2 ADP), Allen (53.6 ADP), and Odunze (65.3 ADP), have been the priority in ADP, so we could see Swift's price fall a little further.

Williams flashed rushing skills in college, but the Bears could project as an offense that leans on the passing game more. In 2023, the Bears ranked 30th in pass rate (52 percent), ahead of the 49ers and Ravens due to Justin Fields averaging the second-most rush attempts per game (9.5) behind Hurts at quarterback. If Williams rushes often, it limits the pass attempts and opportunities for Swift and their pass-catchers.

Over the past three seasons, Swift ranks 15th in EP/G, with the 12th-most high-value touches in 2023. Last season, Swift paid off as a middle-round Zero RB target, and he's priced even cheaper in 2024. The Zero RB strategy suggests not anchoring our drafts based on one player like Swift and being anti-fragile. So, take stabs on the Bears backfield with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson way later if you miss Swift.

Kendre Miller, RB, NO
FFPC ADP: 163.7, RB54

We gave you two middle-round Zero RB targets, but let's highlight a second-year running back who hardly played due to injuries and Kamara dominating the opportunities. Miller ranked fourth in snap share (18 percent) behind Kamara, Jamaal Williams (36 percent), and Tony Jones (33 percent). It's a small sample of 41 rush attempts, but Miller rocked 3.12 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) and an 11.5 percent breakaway rush rate.

Part of why Miller is an intriguing Zero RB target involves his prospect profile. In Miller's final college season at TCU, he rushed for nearly 1,400 yards (1,399) and 17 scores, translating into a 41 percent RB Dominator. The advanced metrics align with the juicy production and film, evidenced by his 3.64 YAC/Att and 44.8 percent breakaway rush percentage. That indicates Miller creates yards after contact while having the explosiveness to make big plays.

He dominated as a rusher but lacked the receiving profile, with his 3 percent receiving yard market share. That doesn't mean Miller can't garner targets, but it could suggest he's below average in pass blocking, which was the case in college. We don't expect Kamara to fade away since he soaks up the rushing and elite receiving volume. However, Miller might be an early-down rusher for the Saints if Kamara misses time like a light version of Khalil Herbert.

 

Summary

Using a Zero RB strategy works better in formats that reward points for receptions, boosting wide receivers. That's especially true when the roster size involves three or more receivers and more than one flex spot. The data points toward using the strategy in Underdog and FFPC's best ball leagues, but it also works well in redraft formats. One of the goals is to draft an anti-fragile roster that thrives on volatility, and we should also have flexibility in our approach.

Since I wrote this article, Miller suffered a hamstring injury in training camp. That has led to his stock and optimism falling since Miller dealt with knee, hamstring, and ankle injuries throughout his brief NFL and collegiate career. Head Coach Dennis Allen has also expressed concern about Miller's ability to stay healthy. Don't overinvest, but we'll want a piece of the Saints' backfield since they ranked seventh in EP/G and fifth in team-level high-value touches, mainly via Kamara's heavy receiving workload.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Trent Grisham

Activated From Paternity List
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome, Ogbo Okoronkwo Could Be Available Via Trade During The Draft
Tobias Myers

Activated Off Injured List, Starting On Thursday
Arizona Cardinals

Paris Johnson Jr. Completely Healthy This Offseason
Jacob Stallings

Nick Martini Sitting In Game 1
Carolina Panthers

Derrick Brown Expected To Be Ready For Start Of Season
Jorge Polanco

Sitting Against Lefty
Denver Broncos

Broncos Fielding Calls For No. 20 Pick In NFL Draft
David Festa

Optioned To Triple-A

Browns, Giants Both Like Jaxson Dart
Willi Castro

Placed On 10-Day Injured List

Kevin Stefanski Thinks Travis Hunter Can Succeed As Two-Way Player
Hagen Smith

Showing Strikeout Potential At Double-A
Texas Rangers

Kohl Drake Strikes Out 10 On Wednesday
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Robby Snelling

Tallies Nine Punchouts For The Second Time This Season
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Javier Rivas

Continues Hot Start To High-A Regular Season
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Chase Petty

Strikes Out Seven On Wednesday
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Cade Horton

Shines On Wednesday
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Gabriel Landeskog

Delivers Six Hits In First Game Since 2022
NFL

Browns, Giants, Patriots Receive Calls For Picks Nos. 2-4
Austin Wynns

Collects Three More Hits on Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan Closes Out Reds Win
Trevor Larnach

Launches Another Long Ball
Oneil Cruz

Keeps Stacking Stats
Logan Webb

Works Six Scoreless Innings In Giants Win
Christopher Morel

Mashes Second Homer Of The Season
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Chandler Simpson

Extends Hitting Streak To Four Games
Jacob Melton

Quiet Since Returning From Injured List
Lazaro Montes

Hits Home Run No. 5
George Kittle

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Tyler Lockett

Joining The Titans

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
New Orleans Saints

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice

Taking Part In Offseason Program

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jake Fromm

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Seattle Seahawks

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog

Likely To Play In Game 3
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF