XFL Week 5 - RB Opportunity Risers and Fallers

March 11, 2020

Antonio Losada evaluates running backs from Week 5 of the XFL and brings you the risers and fallers in touches and opportunities from the first four weeks of the season to the fifth on to assess their fantasy football value.

With five weeks already completed, we have reach the halfway point of the first XFL season, which means the fantasy analysis can't stop and must keep rolling on!

We already looked at target risers and fallers based on the first five weeks of XFL data. Now, it's time to review the running backs, for better or worse.

In this column, I'll be taking a look at some risers and fallers in the receiving and rushing stats departments, more precisely at how different running backs did in terms of opportunities garnered in Week 5 compared to prior weeks' averages to see how those varied, how different teams around the league are using their backfield assets, and what those men are making of their chances. Let's get to it!

Week 1-5 Opportunities: Overall View

With half of the season completed, up to 29 rushers have stitched their names in the XFL history books. Between all of them, they have combined for an exact 200 targets through the air (6.9 per player on the season) and 844 rushing attempts (29.1 per player also through five weeks). All touchdowns considered, those opportunities have translated into 25 TDs (20 rushing, five receiving) and a total of 4,399 yards (3,405 on the ground, 994 receiving).

Although DeVeon Smith (90) has separated himself a little bit from Matt Jones (80) in terms of rushing attempts at the halfway point, the race for the rushing attempts crown is still very alive. Much closer is the battle to come out on top of the target leaderboard with Lance Dunbar (29) barely edging Cameron Artis-Payne (27) on their way there. The same races and positions hold when it comes to actual production, as Smith leads in rushing yardage (365 to Jones' 314) and Dunbar does so in receiving yards (154 to Artis-Payne's 101).

We define an "opportunity" as either a rushing attempt or a receiving target. Here is how those opportunities (ruAtt+reTgt) have been shared among players in Week 5 (vertical axis) and prior weeks (horizontal axis; average stats), with the color diverging from green (more opportunities in Week 5) to red (indicating a higher number of opportunities in prior weeks on average).

click image for full-screen view

Up to four players were given all the chances they could handle and then some with 15+ opportunities this past weekend. Actually, all of them reached those 15 just on the ground (Donnel Pumphrey saw no targets) and added to those chances via targets (DeVeon Smith and Darius Victor were targeted twice, Jhurell Pressley four times). Both Cameron Artis-Payne and Lance Dunbar fell way under their standards, although it was Martez Carter who suffered one of the biggest hits in both opportunity-variation and performance.

Let's take a look at the real risers and fallers from the first couple of weeks to Week 5 next.

Week 1-5 Opportunities: Risers and Fallers

I have calculated the difference in opportunities from Week 5 (positive numbers favor Week 5) to the prior ones, and here is how things looked after this last weekend's slate of games was over.

While we all knew the bell-cow role of DeVeon Smith for these Vipers, he doubled-down on it this past weekend by logging a monster 26 opportunities in Tampa Bay's loss to Los Angeles. More important was the impressive usage of Jhurell Pressley, who also finished second in PPR among running backs this week. Nothing to like around other top-tier names such as Artis-Payne, Dunbar, or Martez Carter, all of them regressing in chances and also in fantasy production during their Week 5 games.

Opportunity Risers

Jhurell Pressley, DC (+11.7, from 7.3 opportunities to 19)

After missing Week 4 Jhurell Pressley came back in impressive fashion for DC and helped the Defenders get the win in a rather mediocre game, truth be told. Pressley led all DC players in opportunities by a mile logging 19 on the game to the tune of 15 rushing attempts and four targets and closing his weekend with 119 combined yards in a touchdown-less effort.

This was just the second time Pressley has carried the ball more than four times (he had 11 rushing attempts back in Week 2) and the first one logging more than three targets (Week 1). DC is lost at the quarterback position and the ground-game is what kinda-sorta saved the Defenders this weekend, so Pressley would need to keep it up going forward if DC wants to have any chances at the postseason.

James Butler, HOU (+4.5, from 10.5 opportunities to 15)

While Butler isn't the literal best or highest riser of the week in opportunities, he did the most of his and finished the weekend with the highest PPR tally among RBs to the tune of 21.9 fantasy points. That was his season-high after three consecutive weeks on the low scoring fewer than 13 PPR points in each of those matches.

As if Houston needed more offensive weapons that those already present at the quarterback and wide receiver positions, Butler showed the world what he's capable of while on high-volume usage, reaching 69 combined yards on the day thanks to his 12 carries and 3-for-3 receptions. Two touchdowns on the day rounded a slate-best performance and the Roughnecks, currently the only undefeated XFL team, can't look sharper and more complete on offense.

Opportunity Fallers

Lance Dunbar (-7.3, from 13.3 opportunities to 6) and Cameron Artis-Payne, DAL (-6, from 16 opportunities to 10)

Dunbar and Artis-Payne are a couple of beasts. They lead the position in targets and receiving yards and their exploits on the ground are equally good. Not this weekend, though. Dallas got stomped by New York and neither Dunbar or Payne topped 10 opportunities this week. Not only that, but they couldn't get on the scoring column and only got 24 and 28 yards respectively with Artis-Payne getting a heavier workload on the ground (six attempts, 25 yards) and Dunbar on the receiving end (four-for-four receptions, 18 yards).

Nothing to be worried too much about at least for now, but the early-season pace both RBs were putting on was definitely bound for regression and it's more probable than not that they both have lower numbers during the second half of the season than those they reached during the first four weeks of it.

Jacques Patrick, TB (-6.5, from 14.5 opportunities to 8)

Everything DeVeon Smith won, Jacques Patrick lost. Tampa has been featuring both backs on their backfield all season long and although Smith has always had the edge over Patrick (77 to 58 opportunities through four weeks) the difference hasn't been that large. That changed in Week 5, as Smith logged 26 chances to Patrick's eight.

All things considered, Patrick has been better than Smith in actual scoring with two touchdowns on back-to-back games (in weeks 4 and 5) but he has lost the opportunity-battle lately. Patrick rushed the ball a season-low seven times in Week 5 for just 23 yards although he was able to catch his single target for a massive 21-yard gain. Smith, though, should keep the no. 1 role to himself after racking up 69 yards in his 24-rushing attempt effort this past weekend.

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