XFL Week 3 - Opportunity Risers and Fallers

February 26, 2020

Antonio Losada evaluates running backs from Week 3 of the XFL and brings you the risers and fallers in touches and opportunities from the first couple of weeks of the season to the present one to determine fantasy football value.

I'm afraid some folks out there won't like this because they never wanted the XFL to establish itself, but we're already at a point when we can't count the number of games players with the fingers of our hands! That's right, it's been three weeks and 12 matches already. We previously looked at target risers and fallers based on the first three weeks of XFL data. Time flies, so you better stay alert because this league doesn't ever stop.

With three dates already in the rearview mirror and plenty of numbers stored from players showcasing their talent all around the country, it makes sense to crunch some of the data we have at hand to see how things have developed during the games each team has already played.

In this column, I'll be taking a look at some risers and fallers in the receiving and rushing stats departments, more precisely at how different running backs did in terms of opportunities garnered in Week 3 compared to prior weeks' averages to see how those varied, how different teams around the league are using their backfield assets, and what those men are making of their chances. Let's get to it!

Week 1-3 Opportunities: Overall View

With three weeks on the books, up to 29 rushers have stitched their names in the XFL history books. Between all of them, they have combined for 134 targets through the air (4.6 per player on the season) and 476 rushing attempts (16.4 per player also through three weeks). All touchdowns considered, those opportunities have translated into 16 touchdowns (11 rushing, five receiving) and a total 2,643 yards (1,941 on the ground, 702 receiving).

Lance Dunbar keeps separating himself from the pack in terms of pass-catching ability at the RB position with 20 receptions on 23 targets for 119 yards. Cameron Artis-Payne should come second, with 15/15 for 75 yards himself. At the other, more classic end, Matt Jones (52) and De'Veon Smith (42) lead all rushers in attempts and have racked up 224 and 174 rushing yards respectively.

We define an "opportunity" as either a rushing attempt or a receiving target. Here is how those opportunities (ruAtt+reTgt) have been shared among players in Week 3 (vertical axis) and prior weeks (horizontal axis; average stats), with the color diverging from green (more opportunities in Week 3) to red (indicating a higher number of opportunities in prior weeks on average).

click image for full-screen view

The swings in opportunities aren't as radical as we found in targets this week. It makes sense, as most teams don't have more than a couple of rushers to share chances between them. Only four players saw a six-opportunity or greater improvement from the first couple of weeks to this one and in fact, none of the 29 fell under a five-opportunity decrease in Week 3.

Let's take a look at the real risers and fallers from the first couple of weeks to Week 3 next.

Week 1-3 Opportunities: Risers and Fallers

I have calculated the difference in opportunities from Week 3 (positive numbers favor it) to the prior ones, and here is how things looked after this last weekend's slate of games was over.

Although not to the extent he discovered last week, Artis-Payne is still on the rise going up 6.5 opportunities from what he had done in the two weeks prior to this last one. More noticeable, though, were the couple of raises experienced by Khalid Abdullah and Nick Brossette, as none of them had more than three chances on average in the first couple of weeks but both were fed at least eight times this week.

RISER - Khalid Abdullah, DC (+7, from 3 opportunities to 10) & Nick Brossette, DC (+7, from 1 opportunity to 8)

The Defenders had a rough game facing Los Angeles, scoring just nine points this past weekend and surrendering all of 39! Those nine points, though, came mostly thanks to Brossette's rushing touchdown in his eight opportunities, all of them on the ground. After not playing in Week 1 and debuting with just one target two weeks ago, Brossette made the most out of his time on the field this time around. Same profile for Abdullah, who logged three rushing attempts in Week 2 but improved a ton in his second go-round playing for the DC as he logged 10 chances this time (eight rushing attempts for 47 yards, two targets catching both for 11 yards).

RISER - Lance Dunbar, DAL (+7.5, from 11.5 opportunities to 19)

Three weeks, three pretty solid games by Dunbar. Dallas is one of three teams with a 2-1 record and the Renegades very well can thank Dunbar's all-around production in getting them there. The rushing attempts have gone up each and every game from five to six and now eight (27, 42, and 23 yards in those) while the targets set at six in each of the first couple of weeks of the season to then jump all the way up to 11 this past weekend. Not that the volume diminished Dunbar's production, though, as he caught nine of those 11 passes for 56 yards. So far, Dunbar is only lacking a touchdown on the year to round it all up.

FALLER - Matt Jones, STL (-4.5, from 19.5 opportunities to 15)

If we take this column as a pure "opportunity fallers," then Matt Jones should be mentioned. If we take it from a broader angle, though, he wouldn't have made it here. Let me explain. Sure, Jones' opportunities have gone from 22 to 17 to now 15, decreasing weekly. But his efficiency has gone up weekly too and he's gone from scoring 8.5 PPR in W1 to 13.9 in W2 and now 15.5 in W3. In fact, you could even make a point for Jones as a riser more than a faller. We'll see if he keeps up his efficiency going forward (he rushed the ball 15 times for 95 yards and a score in W3), and if that's the case then he'll leave this place. Until he does, though, there is no way you can negate his opportunities have gone down.

FALLER - Jhurell Pressley, DC (-5, from 22 opportunities to 17)

Pressley has been playing for DC since Week 1 and back then he was a pure pass-catcher with three receptions on three targets for 18 yards. No rushing attempts to start the season. Obviously, he saw more opportunities in Week 2 including his first 11 rushing attempts for 32 yards, although the targets went back down a tick to two for nine yards. Enter Week 3 and Pressley lost most of his workload to both men named above finishing the day with only four rushing attempts (20 yards) and two targets (two receptions, one yard). We'll see how the Defenders keep building their backfield, but Pressley is the clear faller and loser of the group this time.

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