WR Target and Snap Count Risers From Week 16

December 22, 2018

Phil Clark examines the most important risers and fallers in target share, red zone targets, and snap count for fantasy football wide receivers before Week 17.

Congratulations to those of you whose diligence through the draft process and the regular season has been rewarded with an opportunity to win your league’s championship. You have embraced the unique challenges of participating in a league that incorporates Week 17 matchups into the championship equation and now have one final week to utilize the tools that are available toward determining which receivers should be included in your lineup.

This will help you maintain an extensive level of knowledge regarding the number of opportunities that are being provided to your wide receivers - both in terms of their snap counts and how often they are being targeted by their quarterbacks. This article will examine these specific categories, along with any other noteworthy changes in usage that signal an increase or regression in opportunity. Pro Football Reference was used to obtain all target and red zone target totals, while snap count information was assembled with information from Football Outsiders.

We now are in possession of data from 16 weeks of game action that provides the basis for comparison of snap counts and targets for each receiver, while also helping you identify the most likely candidates to experience a rise or decline in those numbers during this championship week. Good luck to everyone, and here is a breakdown of the most compelling changes in usage and opportunity from Week 16.

Overall Targets

Davante Adams now leads all wide receivers with 169 targets for the season and is followed immediately by Antonio Brown with 168. Julio Jones (157), and Juju Smith- Schuster (156) are the only other receivers that have attained at least 150. Adam Thielen is next with 149, followed by DeAndre Hopkins (147), Michael Thomas (140), and Jarvis Landry (140). Three additional receivers have attained 130+ (Stefon Diggs/ Tyreek Hill/Mike Evans), while 17 others have eclipsed 100 targets for the season.

Brown collected a season-high 19 targets in Week 16, which were the most among all receivers. Three other receivers were targeted at least 15 times - Adams (18), Smith-Schuster (15), and Kenny Golladay (15), while Robby Anderson, Thomas, and Curtis Samuel all collected 13 targets. Doug Baldwin, Hopkins, and Adam Humphries all were next with 12 targets, followed by  Evans, Julian Edelman,  Courtland Sutton, and Jordy Nelson with 10.

No other receivers managed to obtain double digits. although five were targeted nine times (Hill/Larry Fitzgerald/Zay Jones/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Daesean Hamilton), and nine additional receivers captured eight targets. That includes Ted Ginn who was performing in his first game since Week 4.

Adams is one of two receivers that has now received a double-digit target total in four consecutive contests (13/11/13/18), as Hopkins joins him after accumulating 45 targets since Week 13 (12/10/11/12). Smith-Schuster (12/10/15), and Edelman (12/11/10) have both attained double-digits in three straight games.

Adams also leads all receivers in targets per game 11.3 followed by Brown (11.2). Three other receivers are averaging at least 10 per-game - Jones (10.5), Smith Schuster (10.4), and Odell Beckham Jr. (10.3) - even though Beckham's average has not been beneficial for his owners during his three-game absence.

Largest Increases And Decreases 

Not only were Brown’s season-high 19 targets the most among all receivers during Week 16 game action, but that also tied him with four other players for the highest weekly total of the season - Jones (Week 1), Smith-Schuster (Week 2), Thielen (Week 3), and Allen (Week 13).

During the latest installment of his exceptional season, Adams collected the second most targets of any receiver during the week (18). Smith-Schuster has now attained a double-digit target total in five of his last six matchups after accruing 15 against New Orleans. That tied him with Golladay, who has now accumulated 23 targets during his last two contests.

Robby Anderson has now accrued 59 targets during his last seven games, after collecting a season-best 13 against the Packers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had averaged an anemic 3.2 targets per-game from Weeks 11-15 but garnered his highest total since Week 5 when Aaron Rodgers targeted him nine times against the Jets.

Brown’s massive weekly total also represented a rise of +12, which was the largest increase of the week. The second biggest surge of Week 16 was delivered by Curtis Samuel (+9), as the result of his season-high 13 targets. Ginn received the third highest increase (+8) after he captured targets for the first time since September, while Golladay, Valdes-Scantling and Marquise Goodwin all registered a rise of +7.

The 12 targets that Tyrell Williams collected in Week 15 tied him with two other receivers for the highest total for the week. However, he was only targeted twice in Week 16, and the sizable decline of -10 represented the largest drop for the week.

His teammate Mike Williams experienced a decline of -6 which tied him with Antonio Callaway and Willie Snead. Callaway’s weekly target totals remained extremely erratic over the past four games (6/1/7/1), while Snead’s situation will be discussed in the 5 Things That I Noticed section.

Red Zone Targets

Adams leads all receivers with 31 targets inside the red zone through 16 games, while Thomas and Smith-Schuster are tied for second with 28. Hopkins and Brown are next with 24, followed by Beckham and Thielen with 20. Edelman (19), Shepard and Landry are next with 18, while Hilton, Diggs, and Hill are tied with 16. Six other receivers currently have attained 15 targets (Allen/Godwin/Davis/Golladay/Cooks/Zay Jones).

Brown has now assembled eight red zone targets since Week 14, which is the most among all wide receivers. Thomas, Hopkins,  and Anderson are next with seven during that span, as nearly all of Anderson's season total (8) has been collected during his last three matchups. Adams has attained six during that sequence of games, while Jones and Humphries have been targeted five times.

Hopkins still paces the position with 15 targets inside the 10-yard line, followed by Thomas (14), Smith-Schuster (11), Chris Godwin (11), Edelman (10), and T.Y. Hilton (10). No other receivers have reached double-digits in this category, although Davis has attained nine, and seven others have collected eight targets (Adams/Brown/Beckham /Thielen/ Cooper/Woods/Mike Williams).

Largest Increases And Decreases

Four of the eight aforementioned eight red zone targets that Btown has accumulated since Week 14, occurred in Week 16. That was the most for any receiver, while Adams, Thomas, Samuel, and Adams’ teammate Valdes-Scantling all collected three targets in Week 16. 13 receivers were targeted twice in the red zone during their matchups.

Brown, Samuel, and Valdes-Scantling each received the largest weekly increase (+3), as Valdes-Scantling had not been targeted inside the red zone since Week 6. All eight of Samuel's red zone targets throughout the season have been collected since Week 11, while five have been accumulated during December.

Six different receivers achieved a weekly improvement of +2 (Thomas, Golladay, Evans, Michael Crabtree, Dontrelle Inman, and Marquise Goodwin).

Mike Williams and Josh Reynolds led all receivers with four red zone targets in Week 15. But neither Williams or Reynolds were targeted inside the 20 in Week 16, which destined both players for the week’s largest regression of -4.

Snap Counts

Hopkins continues to lead his position with 1,013 snaps, and he is also the only wide receiver that has played on at least 1,000 offensive snaps for the season. Brown has reached the threshold of eclipsing 1,000 (998), while seven other receivers have exceeded 900 snaps - Woods (990), Thielen (958), Adams (954), Cooks (935), Agholor (921), Golladay (904) and  Landry (901).

12 receivers have attained at least 800 snaps during the season - Smith-Schuster (897), Evans (889), Thomas (886), Zay Jones (883), Shepard (870), Hill (869), Lockett (856), Davis (834), Diggs (818), Fitzgerald (806), Josh Doctson (805), and Taylor Gabriel (802).

Hopkins has also maintained his lead in snap percentage (99.4%), followed by Thielen (96%), Woods (96%), Brown (95%), Adams (94%), Fitzgerald (92%), Shepard (91%), Cooks (91%), Golladay (90%), and Agholor (90%). No other receivers have surpassed a 90% snap count, although Thomas, Davis and Zay Jones all currently reside at 89%. Hill (88%), Landry (87%), Smith-Schuster (86%), and Lockett (85%), are averaging at least 85%, while six other receivers have attained a percentage of at least 80% - Evans (84%), Doctson (83%), Diggs (82%), Allen (80%), Nelson (80%), and Kenny Stills (80%). 12 others have surpassed 70% through 16 games.

Largest Increases And Decreases

It has been customary for Hopkins to perform on essentially 100% of Houston's offensive snaps on a weekly basis throughout the season, and he accomplished it again in Week 16. However, Zay Jones also played on 100% of Buffalo's snaps, followed by Courtland Sutton (99%), Fitzgerald (98%), and Robert Foster (97%). Adams, Brown, and John Ross all attained a count of 96%, while D.J. Moore, Hill, and Kendrick Bourne all played on 95% of their teams' snaps.

Hamilton (94%), Allen (94%), and Anderson (93%) spearheaded a collection of 10 players who registered a percentage that dwelled between 94%-90%. The most surprising name within that cluster of receivers has to be Cody Core, who had played on 33% of Cincinnati snaps from Weeks 1-15, then proceeded to attain a count of 91% during the Bengals' Week 16 matchup in Cleveland.

Julio Jones (24/50%), Calvin Ridley (29/60%) and Mohamed Sanu (32/67%) all experienced notable regression in their counts. However, that was the byproduct of Jones' injuries and a game script that included Atlanta's ability to generate 427 yards on just 48 plays. This effectively quashed both the total number of plays, and the percentage of plays in which the team felt compelled to deploy the trio or receivers.

Five Things That I Noticed

1. No receiver was supplied with more opportunities to boost his owners’ scoring totals during the critical Week 15-16 matchups than Davante Adams.  He received the most targets of any receiver during that two-week span in which most fantasy championships were determined (31), while Antonio Brown (26) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (25) were the only two receivers who joined him in attaining 25+. Robby Anderson collected the fourth highest total (24), followed by DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Golladay (23), Michael Thomas (22) Julian Edelman (21), and DaeSean Hamilton (21). Other noteworthy totals during that two-week sequence included Mike Evans (19), Adam Humphries (18), Doug Baldwin (18), Jordy Nelson (18), Larry Fitzgerald (17) and Curtis Samuel (17). Nine other receivers attainted at least 15 targets during that span, with Isaiah McKenzie easily having the notoriety of being the most surprising name on that particular list.

2. As you construct your lineups this week, your WR3 decisions might be among the most cumbersome that you have experienced this season. Fortunately, if you have not secured Zay Jones, Robert Foster, or DaeSean Hamilton for your roster in recent weeks, these highly recommended options are somehow still available in many leagues. 33 of the 93 targets that Jones has captured throughout the season have been accumulated since Week 13, which is an average of 8.25-per-game during that span. He has also been allotted at least six targets in 10 of his 15 games this season and has been targeted 15 times in the red zone. His teammate Foster was only targeted 19 times from Weeks 1-13 but has now attained 6.7 per-game since Week 14 - which includes the seven that he collected in Week 16. Hamilton has been targeted 30 times since he began operating in the slot during Week 14 (9/12/9), which is an outstanding 10-per-game average. Any member of this trio can be deployed this week as they should all be supplied with a favorable number of opportunities during their matchups with the Dolphins (Jones/Foster), and the Chargers (Hamilton).

3. The back issue that sidelined Carson Wentz back also vaulted Nick Foles into QB2 responsibilities. But his insertion under center has not altered the distribution of targets to Eagle wide receivers to the degree that it had initially appeared after Week 15. In two games with Foles as the signal caller, Alshon Jeffery has now collected 13 targets (8/5), followed by Nelson Agholor with nine (2/7), and Golden Tate with eight (5/3). For perspective, Zach Ertz was targeted a shopping 23 times by Foles during that two-game sequence. Jeffery had averaged 7.4 targets-per-game in his first 10 games, and his target decline in Week 16 resulted in a 6.5 per game average in two games with Foles. Agholor had averaged 6.3 per game in 13 contests prior to having Foles guiding the Eagle offense, and his expanded Week 16 total lifted his two-game average to a number that more closely resembles his numbers with Wentz. Tate had averaged 9.85 targets-per-game in seven contests with Detroit but had averaged 6-per-game with Wentz spearheading Philadelphia’s passing attack.

4. Corey Davis entered Week 11 with 76 targets, which tied him for 15th among all receivers. He had just collected 10 targets in two consecutive games, was averaging 8.4 targets-per-game, and was tied for 11th at his position with 13 red zone targets. But even though his status as Tennessee's WR1 remains unchallenged, Davis has averaged just 4.8 targets-per-game during the Titans' last six contests, while (4/4/7/3/6/5) exceeding only five targets twice during that sequence of games. That includes his Week 11 performance against Indianapolis when Davis only caught two of his four targets for 30 yards. He has also been targeted just twice in the red zone during those six matchups, and it is unlikely that Davis will deliver a level of production that you need this week, regardless of whether Marcus Mariota or Blaine Gabbert is guiding the Titans' passing attack.

5. While the emergence of Lamar Jackson as Baltimore’s starting quarterback in Week 11 provided owners with a more tangible starting quarterback than predecessor Joe Flacco, his presence has eviscerated the value of Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead, and John Brown since the transition from Flacco to Jackson was completed. With Flacco launching passes for the Ravens, Crabtree entered the team's Week 10 bye tied with A.J. Green for 12th among all receivers with 76 targets and was averaging 8.4 per game. Snead was 18th overall (69 targets/7.6 per-game), while Brown was 19th (67 targets/7.4 per-game). But in six games since Jackson began spearheading an offense that became immersed in a ground-oriented approach, Crabtree has been targeted just 22 times (3/6/4/4/1/4) while averaging 3.7+ per-game. Brown has received 27 targets (1/7/4/6/3/6) while averaging 4.5 per game, and Snead's target total (24/4.8 per-game) has also been diminished amid equally inconsistent usage 8/0/3/7/6/0). Regardless of any unique challenges that you may be confronted with this week, no Baltimore receiver should be in your lineups.

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