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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 4 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 4 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data since we're using the Week 1-3 metrics and matchup ratings might be skewed if a player struggled or succeeded, given the small sample. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
Favorable WR/CB Matchups Chart
Below, we'll see the most favorable WR/CB matchups for Week 4. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
Unfavorable WR/CB Matchups Chart
Since WR/CB matchups tend to be nuanced and complex, it may not be a perfect match for the real-time matchups during the game. The visual below shows the unfavorable Week 4 WR/CB matchups.
If a receiver struggles in the first three weeks, it will impact their Week 4 matchup scores after adjusting their respective score based on the weighted averages. That mainly means we should temper expectations based on the WR/CB matchups and team context.
Week 4 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Tyler Lockett vs. Carlton Davis III
Surprisingly, the Lions secondary kept the Cardinals receivers in check in Week 3, with Marvin Harrison Jr. (5-64-1) and Michael Wilson (8-64-0) leading the team. Time of possession became an issue for the Cardinals, with just over 23 minutes against the Lions, causing the offensive play volume to dip.
Most fantasy managers will start DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 4, with the Seahawks and Lions matchup having one of the higher over/under totals at 46.5. However, a deep-league option involves Tyler Lockett since Carlton Davis III allows the fifth-most fantasy points and fourth-most fantasy points per route run.
The Seahawks have the 11th-highest pass rate at 61 percent and the third-highest no-huddle rate at 20 percent. We're expecting the Seahawks to continue rocking high pass rates, and Lockett still possesses a serviceable 21 percent targets per route run rate behind Smith-Njigba (22 percent).
However, there's a downside scenario where Metcalf has a blowup game while Smith-Njigba attacks a Lions secondary allowing the most fantasy points to the slot. At best, Lockett's median outcome involves a WR3/4 performance like Wan'Dale Robinson in PPR.
Michael Wilson vs. Benjamin St-Juste
Greg Dortch vs. Mike Sainristil
The Commanders have been one of the juiciest matchups for opposing receivers, allowing the second-most fantasy points to receivers out wide and to the slot. Marvin Harrison Jr. is an auto start and could give us a Ja'Marr Chase-like outing from Week 3 of six receptions (seven targets), 118 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
Michael Wilson projects to face Benjamin St-Juste, allowing the most fantasy points per route run and the fifth-most yards per route. Against the Lions, Wilson saw an uptick in targets, with nine, earning a 26 percent targets per route run rate behind Harrison at 31 percent.
That's a notable change because Wilson had four targets and an awful 8 percent targets per route run rate in Weeks 1-2. Wilson is worth starting in three-receiver leagues with a flex in PPR because of his added involvement in Week 3, ready to face one of the league-worst secondaries.
Though we had Greg Dortch here last week in the Week 3 WR/CB matchup upgrades, he didn't come through with only three receptions on six targets for 35 receiving yards.
In Weeks 1-2, Mike Sainristil primarily played the slot cornerback role but played more out wide in Week 3. Sainristil has the third-worst quarterback rating allowed among cornerbacks with 30 snaps while allowing the sixth-most yards per coverage snap in the slot.
If Trey McBride misses Week 4, Dortch might finish with five to six receptions for 60 receiving yards in PPR leagues.
George Pickens vs. Jaylon Jones
Pickens has been the focal point of the Steelers passing offense, ranking 17th in first-read target share from Justin Fields. The two other pass-catchers trailing Pickens at 17.6 percent include Pat Freiermuth and Calvin Austin III. The Colts allow the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers lined out wide, putting Pickens in a WR/CB matchup upgrade against Jaylon Jones.
Jones allowed the 23rd-most yards per route run and is 39th in fantasy points per route against opposing receivers. While it doesn't look like a smash spot, it's an above-average matchup. Pickens has been efficient, with the 14th-best yards per route run on the 17th-best weighted targets per route run, weighing air yards into the equation.
Justin Fields can throw it deep, averaging 14.4 adjusted yards per attempt (No. 8) on passes with an average target depth of 10+ yards. Surprisingly, the Steelers rank ninth in pass rate over expected at 6 percent ahead of the Buccaneers and Chiefs.
Mix that with Pickens' efficiency and Jones allowing the 14th-highest target depth in coverage, and don't be surprised if Pickens makes a splash play or two downfield.
Week 4 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Jameson Williams vs. Tariq Woolen
We discussed how the Lions and Cardinals matchup in Week 3 disappointed from an over/under total. That contributed to Jameson Williams struggling against the Cardinals secondary, catching one reception for nine yards on three targets. Part of the issue involved the Lions pounding the rock, with David Montgomery (23 carries, 105 rushing yards) and Jahmyr Gibbs (16 carries, 83 rushing yards) accounting for 50.4 percent of the team's total yards.
Now, Williams faces one of the better secondaries in the league, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide and sixth-fewest in the slot. That suggests a downgrade to Amon-Ra St. Brown, too, but fantasy managers likely won't be sitting him. Meanwhile, Williams faces Tariq Woolen, who allows the fewest fantasy points per route and fifth-lowest yards per route run.
Part of Woolen's success involves the Seahawks facing the Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa. Regardless, the Seahawks secondary dominated, with the highest PFF team coverage grades through three weeks.
Fantasy managers likely won't sit Williams, but it projects as a downgraded matchup. It's strength against strength because Williams can blow by the defense and the Lions have one of the best offensive coordinators in Ben Johnson who could scheme up plays for Williams.
Quentin Johnston vs. Trent McDuffie
In Week 3 against the Steelers, Quentin Johnston scored a long 27-yard touchdown, though it came on a coverage breakdown. We figured the Chargers and Steelers would become a defensive game, leading to Johnston only garnering two targets, catching both for 44 yards.
That's notable because Johnston ranks 130th among 185 qualified receivers in FantasyPoints Average Separation Score, suggesting he struggles to separate on his routes.
That might be unfortunate because Johnston projects to face Trent McDuffie, who allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points per route and the 13th-lowest yards per route run allowed. When we pair that with a receiver like Johnston playing on an offense that lacks passing volume, with a 45 percent pass rate (No. 30), Johnston needs to be efficient.
Johnston has been efficient with the eighth-highest fantasy points over expected (FPOE/G), yet the 63rd-ranked expected points per game (EP/G). We want efficient players, but it's concerning when Johnston's EP/G is that low since the expected points formula involves the usage and high-value opportunity.
It's not a profitable bet to continue banking on Johnston's uber-efficiency on a team that boasts the third-highest rush rate and the third-slowest pace in seconds per snap.
Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Derek Stingley Jr.
It's an understatement to say the Jaguars offense has been underperforming to begin the season. It lost Calvin Ridley but added Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis. It's partly on Trevor Lawrence, evidenced by his 4.72 adjusted yards per attempt (No. 27) and -3.5 percent completion rate over expected (No. 29) among 35 qualified quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks.
It's hard to have confidence in Brian Thomas Jr. projecting to face Derek Stingley Jr. In Week 3, we downgraded Christian Kirk against the Bills, which would've come through if the Bills weren't blowing out the Jaguars 34-3 in the first half. That's evident in Kirk catching both targets for 14 yards in the first half compared to six receptions on eight targets for 65 yards in the second.
Maybe Thomas provides fantasy production in garbage time, reminiscent of Jaguars of the past led by Gardner Minshew II. However, the Jaguars face another challenging secondary in the Texans.
Thomas projects to face Derek Stingley Jr., allowing the 35th-fewest fantasy points per route run. Davis projects to face Kamari Lassiter, tying with McDuffie for the sixth-fewest fantasy points per route, yet the 14th-lowest yards per route run allowed. Avoid Thomas until we see better matchups.
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