WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 14 (2024)

December 5, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 14 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 14 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 14 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The visual below shows offenses from Arizona to Detroit.

The visual below shows offenses from Green Bay to New Orleans.

The visual below shows offenses from the New York Giants through the Titans.

Week 14 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores

Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.

Week 14 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Malik Nabers vs. Alontae Taylor

Among pass catchers with a ten percent route rate in Weeks 8-13, Malik Nabers ranks fourth in expected fantasy points per game (xFP/G) behind Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb. Nabers has been the most inefficient receiver among the leaders in xFP/G among the top 20 in pass catchers inside the top 20.

The visual below shows the leaders in expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 8-13.

The Saints use the 12th-highest rate of man coverage (31 percent), with the ninth-most Cover 1 (26.9 percent) and the second-most rate of Cover 2 (23.9 percent).

Nabers ranks fifth in targets per route (41 percent) and 22nd in yards per route run (2.75) against man coverage, which the Saints use often. He performs and earns targets better against man coverage, though his 29 percent target rate and 2.50 yards per route run hint against Cover 2 indicates he can crush when needed.

The visual below shows the targets per route run leaders against man coverage, with a minimum of 25 routes.

The one minor downside is that the Saints' defense is a run funnel, allowing the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt. This might be a better matchup for Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary, though Nabers should be the focal point of the passing offense.

With Drew Lock at quarterback in Week 13, Nabers was the first read 45 percent of the time (No. 8). That's similar to his season-long usage, with the highest first-read target share at 42.9 percent among all receivers and tight ends in Weeks 1-12.

The Giants move Nabers around the formation, but he projects to face Alontae Taylor often. Taylor allows the third-most fantasy points per route and the highest yards per route run. It should be a smash spot for Nabers, though there will be passing inefficiencies with the backup quarterbacks.

Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Jarvis Brownlee Jr.

In Weeks 8-13, Brian Thomas Jr. ranked 67th in expected fantasy points per game (9.9) and averaged 11.3 PPR/G. While Thomas's usage doesn't inspire confidence, it's partly due to the matchups and having a backup quarterback in a few games. They faced the evolved version of the Eagles' defense in Week 9, the Vikings in Week 10, the Lions in Week 11, and the Texans in Week 13.

We can't expect a backup quarterback to keep their pass catchers afloat, especially considering the matchups. The Jaguars face the Titans in Week 14, who allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to receivers out wide, where Thomas ran routes over 70 percent of the time.

The Titans run the fifth-highest rate of zone coverage, with the highest rate of Cover 4 (25.7 percent). Thomas garners a 21 percent target per route rate and produced 2.35 yards per route run against zone coverage. It's a small sample of 42 routes against Cover 4, but Thomas boasts 2.69 yards per route run.

The visual below shows the Jaguars' receiving leaders against zone coverage.

We've seen some defenses mix it up from their season-long trends. If the Titans become more man-heavy against the Jaguars, Thomas should fare well with a 26 percent target rate (No. 46) and 2.42 yards per route run (No. 35) out of 239 qualified pass catchers (WR/TE). That's notable because the Titans give up the highest fantasy points per dropback in man coverage.

Expect Thomas to take advantage of a weaker matchup, with the Titans missing several cornerbacks due to injuries. We may see Parker Washington replicate about 75 percent of his Week 13 performance of 24.3 PPR, though the Titans have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the slot.

Calvin Ridley vs. Ronald Darby

We'll stick with the Titans and Jaguars matchup because of the Calvin Ridley revenge game narrative. This matchup could bode well for Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, though he doesn't crush man coverage as well as Ridley does.

In Weeks 8-13, Ridley ranks 22nd in expected fantasy points per game, indicating WR2-type usage. The passing offense can be inconsistent while possessing tons of upside with Will Levis, but the usage and matchup should align in the Titans' favor.

The Jaguars use the second-highest rate of man coverage while allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback. They also run the second-highest rate over Cover 1.

Ridley ranks 23rd in target per route rate (31 percent) and 18th in yards per route run (2.99) against man coverage. He has been one of 16 receivers and tight ends with a 30 percent target rate or higher and a yards per route run of 2.50 or more against man coverage.

The visual below shows the receivers and tight ends with a 30 percent target rate or higher and 2.50 yards per route run or more against man coverage.

We have a mixture of high-end receivers on that list. That list includes Ridley, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, George Pickens, Ridley, Nabers, Drake London, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They all garner a high target rate and produce efficiently against man coverage.

Unsurprisingly, Ridley has been more dominant against Cover 1, which the Jaguars use often. That's evident in Ridley's 34 percent target rate and 3.61 yards per route run versus Cover 1.

This should be a spike week performance for Ridley, especially considering the individual matchup against Ronald Darby. Darby allows the fourth-most fantasy points per route and the fifth-highest yards per route run.

On paper, it's a positive matchup for Westbrook-Ikhine, and he could continue his touchdown-scoring, with eight touchdowns on 38 targets (21.1 percent touchdown rate). However, it's risky to rely on a receiver ranking 94th in expected fantasy points and 12th in fantasy points over expected per game.

In Weeks 8-13, Westbrook-Ikhine ranks sixth in fantasy points over expected per game, similar to a receiver we'll discuss later with their concerning usage. 

The visual below shows the receiving advanced stat leaders sorted by fantasy points over expected per game in Weeks 8-13.

Westbrook-Ikhine isn't great against man coverage, with a 19 percent target rate and 1.26 yards per route run. It won't surprise us for Levis to find Westbrook-Ikhine for 1-2 big plays and a touchdown against a pass defense that probably shouldn't be running tons of man coverage.

Week 14 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Xavier Legette vs. Isaiah Rodgers

In Weeks 8-13, Xavier Legette ranks 61st in expected fantasy points (10.8) behind David Moore (12.9) and Adam Thielen (15.2). The type of coverage doesn't matter for the Eagles because they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per dropback using man coverage compared to the fourth-lowest fantasy points per zone coverage dropbacks.

The visual below shows the receiving advanced stats for Panthers' WR/TE sorted by expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 8-13.

The Eagles mix in zone coverage 68.7 percent of the time (No. 15), with the 10th-most Cover 3 and eighth-highest rate of Cover 4. Legette has been mediocre against zone coverage, garnering a 21 percent target per route rate and 2.00 yards per route run.

His 15 percent target rate and 0.83 yards per route run against Cover 3 scares us. However, Legette earned a higher target rate (26 percent), yet similar production (0.91 yards per route run) versus Cover 4.

Over the past two weeks, Bryce Young ranks eighth in EPA per dropback (0.22), yet he ranks 16th in passing success rate (48.1 percent) out of 36 qualified quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Young ranked 37th in EPA per dropback (-0.15) and 39th in passing success rate (36.6 percent) out of 41 qualified quarterbacks.

It could be small sample noise or Young and the Panthers' offensive improvements. However, they face the Eagles who allow the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide and the fifth lowest to the slot.  

Though the Panthers move Legette around the formation, he plays nearly 70 percent of his routes lined up out wide. Legette projects to face Isaiah Rodgers, who allows the 16th-fewest fantasy points per route and the third-lowest yards per route. Downgrade Legette and the Panthers' receivers in Week 14 against the Eagles.

Deebo Samuel Sr. vs. Jaylon Johnson

In Weeks 8-13, Deebo Samuel Sr. averages 10.9 expected fantasy points per game (No. 60), underperforming by three fantasy points per game with his 7.9 PPR/G. Jauan Jennings has become Brock Purdy's preferred option with a team-high 36.3 percent first-read target share, ranking fourth among all pass catchers (WR/TE) in Weeks 8-13.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders in Weeks 8-13 sorted by first-read target share.

The Bears allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide and the eighth-lowest fantasy points to the slot. Though the 49ers move Samuel around the formation, it's a downgraded matchup for the receivers.

The visual below shows the team-level offensive and defensive data sorted by adjusted yards before contact per attempt allowed on defense.

That's partly because the Bears' defense is a run funnel, allowing the second-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt behind the Saints. With the 49ers losing Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, the running back will run through Isaac Guerendo.

Samuel has been dealing with an oblique/rib injury, and his health might be a limiting factor. However, Samuel's efficiency has been brutal, evidenced by his -1.4 fantasy points over expectation (No. 214), similar to Michael Pittman Jr., Christian Kirk, and Amari Cooper.

The Bears run zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate, with the fifth-most Cover 3. Samuel used to crush zone coverage, but Jennings (3.04), George Kittle (2.42), and Brandon Aiyuk (2.26) average more yards per route run than him (1.91).

Specifically, Samuel averages 1.62 yards per route with a 22 percent target rate versus Cover 3. Aiyuk ranks 11th in yards per route (3.48) and Kittle ranks 32nd (2.58) against Cover 3, so the Week 14 matchup might favor Kittle, not Samuel.

Jaylon Johnson has been a tough matchup for opposing receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per route and the 12th-lowest yards per route run. Over the past five games, the top receiver averaged six targets, 4.6 receptions, 94 receiving yards, and 15.2 PPR/G. The top options were efficient downfield with Christian Watson (4-4-150-0) and Jordan Addison (9-8-162-1).

However, the Bears limited Marvin Harrison Jr. (5-2-34), Amon-Ra St. Brown (7-5-73), Justin Jefferson (5-2-27), and Jayden Reed (2-2-23-1). Downgrade Samuel since he struggles against zone and Cover 3, with Jennings and Kittle having upgraded matchups.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Adoree' Jackson

The Saints have been ravaged by injuries to their pass catchers, leaving Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the top receiver behind Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, and Juwan Johnson. Valdes-Scantling ranked first in fantasy points over expectation (7.5) yet ranked 111th in expected fantasy points in Weeks 8-13.

The visual below shows the Saints' receiving advanced stat leaders sorted by expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 8-13.

Besides the uber-efficiency in FPOE/G and yards per route run (2.72), Valdes-Scantling's usage hasn't been great, with a 13 percent target rate and a 13 percent first-read target share. For context, Valdes-Scantling ranked fourth on the Saints in expected fantasy points and fourth in first-read target share, meaning one should question the sustainability of his production.

The Giants run man coverage at the 11th-highest rate, with the sixth-highest rate of Cover 1. Valdes-Scantling garners a 15 percent target rate while averaging 1.10 yards per route run against man coverage.

The data looks similar when Valdes-Scantling faces Cover 1, evidenced by a 16 percent target rate and 1.16 yards per route. Juwan Johnson has been the top producer against Cover 1, averaging 2.36 yards per route while garnering a 29 percent target rate.

The visual below shows the Saints' receiving advanced stats against man coverage.

We'll highlight the Giants using single high safety coverage at the fourth-highest rate behind the Steelers, Panthers, and Browns. That's where Valdes-Scantling thrives, ranking 18th in yards per route run (2.84) and third in yards per target over expectation (7.0) against single-high coverage in the middle of the field.

Unsurprisingly, the volume hasn't been there, with a 17 percent target rate versus single high looks, though he scored three of his four touchdowns against these coverages.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders against single high safety looks sorted by yards per route run.

Derek Carr loves to throw it deep. He ranks third in adjusted yards per attempt (8.53), fourth in deep throw rate (17.8 percent), and fifth in completion rate over expected (five percent) when facing single-high safety coverages. Theoretically, that should bode well for Carr and Valdes-Scantling if the Giants use tons of single high looks against them.

The visual below shows the passing advanced stats leaders against single high safeties, with a minimum of 25 dropbacks.

Valdes-Scantling projects to face Adoree' Jackson, allowing the seventh-lowest fantasy points per route and fourth-fewest yards per route run. The Giants' secondary allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide, where Valdes-Scantling lines up nearly 80 percent of the time.

It might seem confusing, but we're examining the pros and cons for Valdes-Scantling in Week 14, though he may remain efficient with the offensive weapons dwindling. The top receivers against the Giants in the past five games averaged 5.6 targets. 3.2 receptions, 39.6 receiving yards, and 13.2 PPR/G.

Be careful chasing the efficiency with Valdes-Scantling in Week 14, though we could see the upside scenario against single high coverages.

Best of luck this week!

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