WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Divisional Round (2025)

January 16, 2025

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for the Divisional Round of 2024-2025. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for the Divisional Round of the 2024 fantasy football season. Congrats to all of you who won a championship or reached the title game!

For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores, which are calculated by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat is that limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players could possibly skew the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for the Divisional Round sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The WR/CB matchups for all the offenses are below.

Divisional Round WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores

Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores, though it's a small list with fewer teams.

Divisional Round WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Terry McLaurin vs. Terrion Arnold

The Lions used man coverage at the highest rate, with the fifth-highest rate of Cover 1 in Weeks 12-18. Terry McLaurin has been mediocre against man coverage, with a 23 percent target per route run and 1.73 yards per route run. McLaurin's numbers against Cover 1 were similar, evidenced by a 21 percent target rate and 1.64 yards per route run.

McLaurin ranks fifth on the Commanders in Average Separation Score against man coverage, behind Luke McCaffrey, Jamison Crowder, Dyami Brown, and Noah Brown. Given their third-highest tight coverage rate, the Lions tend to play press-man coverage. One way for the Commanders to challenge the Lions involves whether McLaurin and their receivers can win against man coverage.

The visual below shows the team defenses comparing tight and wide-open coverage percentages.

Terrion Arnold has been middle of the pack, allowing 0.26 fantasy points per route (No. 54) and 1.26 yards per route run (No. 56) out of 96 qualified cornerbacks. Arnold missed the Wild Card game but was estimated to be practicing fully. Keep tabs on this matchup since the advanced data indicates it's a mixed bag, especially if McLaurin struggles to create separation versus a team that plays tight coverages. 

Marquise Brown vs. Myles Bryant

With Marquise Brown healthy, he primarily played in the slot on nearly half of his routes. Brown averaged 11.9 expected fantasy points per game (No. 52), behind Xavier Worthy at 19.3 (No. 8) and Travis Kelce with 16.6 (No. 18) in Weeks 16-17. We'll want to be cautious with the small samples, but Brown garnered an elite 43 percent target per route rate, ranking first in Weeks 16-17.

However, Brown ran a route on 41.7 percent of the team's dropbacks, so he had solid per-route usage. The Texans use single-high safety looks at the 11th-highest rate while using Cover 1 at the ninth-highest rate in Weeks 12-18. Unfortunately, Brown hasn't played enough to qualify for data versus the defensive coverages.

Kelce has garnered the highest target rate at 21 percent against Cover 1 as the top healthy option since Rashee Rice led the team among qualified receivers with 25 routes.

However, Brown leads the Chiefs with a 41 percent target rate against single-high safety looks, ahead of Rice (39 percent). That ranks Brown second behind Puka Nacua in target rate against single-high safety coverage, with Brown ranking 18th in yards per route run (2.83).

It's a small sample versus another tiny sample with Brown versus Myles Bryant, the Texans' slot corner. Bryant has been seeing more playing time in Weeks 18 and the Wild Card Round, with 30-40 coverage snaps compared to 38 combined in four previously active games.

Bryant allowed the second-lowest fantasy points per route and yards per route run behind Marshon Lattimore, though we're dealing with small samples.

Theoretically, the Chiefs should attack the slot matchup against the Texans since Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter have been solid outside cornerbacks. Furthermore, Brown has been a per-route king against single-high coverage in his two weeks of data (Weeks 16-17). Brown looks like the wild card for the Chiefs in the Divisional Round that could make some noise. 

Divisional Round WR/CB Matchup to Monitor

Xavier Worthy vs. Derek Stingley Jr.

The Chiefs move rookie Worthy all over the formation, but we're projecting the Texans' best cornerback, Stingley, to attempt to cover Worthy in the Divisional Round. Worthy ranks third behind Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins in expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 12-18.

Though Brown ranked highly in the per-route data against single-high safety coverage, Worthy has been inefficient, with 1.53 yards per route with a 25 percent target rate. While it might not show up in the advanced numbers, the Chiefs have been creatively using Worthy, including 2-3 rush attempts in Weeks 15-17 paired with three consecutive games with career-high targets (11, 11, 9).

One of those peak games for Worthy was against the Texans, catching seven of 11 targets for 65 receiving yards and one touchdown. Besides Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr. caught four receptions for 76 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets. However, the top receivers against the Texans over the past five games (not including the Wild Card game) have been unexpected contributors.

Worthy projects to face Stingley, allowing the fifth-lowest fantasy points per route and fourth-lowest yards per route run. That's especially notable because Stingley has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league, with further evidence showing ranked 16th-highest forced incompletion rate and sixth in pass breakups.

Expect Worthy to be involved, and we're betting on some uncertainty for the Chiefs to scheme him away from Stingley, though the rookie possesses the speed to blow by the Texans' top corner.

Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Noah Igbinoghene

Jameson Williams vs. Marshon Lattimore

The data suggests Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams have projected tougher matchups. However, Lattimore has struggled lately in 2024, especially against more skilled and athletic receivers. That's evident in Mike Evans winning and producing well against Lattimore in the Wild Card round.

Whether we're playing a playoff contest or DFS, we'll want a piece of the Lions' offense, especially considering St. Brown and Williams have been reliable options.

St. Brown projects to face Noah Igbinoghene, allowing the 22nd-lowest fantasy points per route and the 10th-lowest yards per route run, as the Commanders' primary slot cornerback. The Commanders ran man coverage at the fifth-highest rate and the fourth-most Cover 1 in Weeks 12-18.

Kalif Raymond and Sam LaPorta lead the team in targets per route run against man coverage. Besides Raymond and LaPorta, Williams produced the second-best yards per route (2.81) yet the fourth-ranked Average Separation Score against man coverage on the Lions.

Williams produced yards per route run at a high rate against man coverage and should beat Lattimore or whoever the Commanders use against him. Theoretically, St. Brown and Williams project for challenging individual matchups in the Divisional Round. However, we should trust the Lions' offense to scheme up opportunities as they make a Super Bowl run.

Best of luck this week in the Divisional Round matchups!

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