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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for the conference championship round of 2024-25. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for the conference championship round of the 2024 fantasy football season. Congrats to all of you who won a championship or reached the title game!
For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores, which are calculated by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat is that limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players could skew the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for the conference championship round sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The WR/CB matchups for all the offenses are below.
Conference Championship Round WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores, though it's a small list with fewer teams.
Notable Bills WR/CB Matchups Against the Chiefs
Khalil Shakir vs. Christian Roland-Wallace
Keon Coleman vs. Trent McDuffie
The Chiefs defense ran the 15th-most man coverage in Weeks 12-18 while ranking ninth across the season. They ran the highest rate of two-high safety looks in Weeks 12-18 while allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per dropback.
That suggests the two-high safety looks have been effective, especially in the latter half of the season. The Chiefs and Bills continued to use two-high safety looks in the playoffs.
How do the Bills' top two receivers fare against two high coverages? Dalton Kincaid leads the team with a 31 percent target per route rate, with Shakir ranking second at 27 percent and Coleman garnering a lowly 13 percent target rate.
Shakir led the team as the 13th-most-efficient pass-catcher against two-high safety coverage. Unfortunately, Coleman's low target rate aligns with his inefficient yards per route run at 0.77 versus two high safeties.
The Bills tied for the ninth-lowest pass rate in neutral game scripts, meaning lower pass volume and projecting the efficiency to boost the production for Shakir and the Bills pass-catchers.
The Bills may try to establish the run against the Chiefs like they did versus the Ravens, especially since their run defense hasn't been as dominant in Weeks 12-18. The Chiefs run defense allowed the 12th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt, with the Bills' run blocking generating the ninth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt.
Shakir projects to face Christian Roland-Wallace, who has been their slot cornerback in the final few games of the regular season. Roland-Wallace allows the eighth-most fantasy points per route and the ninth-most yards per route run.
The Chiefs can be vulnerable to the slot, as Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams are two of the better cornerbacks in the league. That favors Shakir but doesn't benefit Coleman, who projects to face McDuffie.
McDuffie has allowed the 29th-lowest fantasy points per route and 17th-fewest yards per route run. He tied for the 32nd-highest forced incompletion rate, the 17th-most pass breakups, and the 13th-best missed tackle rate out of 127 qualified cornerbacks.
Coleman could be a contrarian option in a DFS or playoff contest, though it's been hard to rely upon him. Shakir projects for the best team-level matchup, so let's go back to him in the conference championship.
Notable Chiefs WR/CB Matchups Against the Bills
Marquise Brown vs. Taron Johnson
Xavier Worthy vs. Christian Benford (Kaiir Elam)
Keep tabs on Christian Benford and the concussion protocol because that might make Xavier Worthy's matchup more juicy. The per-route king, Marquise Brown, let us down in the Divisional Round, with two targets and zero receptions. However, the Chiefs couldn't muster much offense, with the Texans averaging one more yard per play and totaling over 120 more yards than Kansas City.
Brown faces a positive matchup on paper, but the route percentage concerns us. Among pass-catchers with 10 routes run in the playoffs, Brown averages a 71 percent route rate, tying him with Travis Kelce. The main difference is the usage, with Brown garnering a 9 percent target rate compared to Kelce at 36 percent.
The Bills pass defense uses two high coverage at the fourth-highest rate. That's a concern for the Chiefs receivers since Brown doesn't qualify only playing in Weeks 16 and 17. Meanwhile, Worthy garners a lowly 17 percent target rate, averaging 1.08 yards per route run in Weeks 12-18 against two-high looks.
Can you guess who Patrick Mahomes trusts versus two-high coverages? That's Kelce. He garners the ninth-highest target per route rate, yet an underwhelming 1.62 yards per route run (No. 59) among 167 qualified receivers and tight ends with 25 routes against two-high looks. However, Kelce's expected fantasy points per route run suggest positive regression in his favor against two-high coverages.
If we want a piece of the Chiefs passing game, it should be Worthy or Kelce because both have a floor-and-ceiling outcome in their range. The accessory options lack the ideal usage like Brown and DeAndre Hopkins.
Notable Eagles WR/CB Matchups Against the Commanders
A.J. Brown vs. Mike Sainristil
DeVonta Smith vs. Noah Igbinoghene
The Commanders used the fifth-highest rate of man coverage in Weeks 12-18 while allowing the fifth-lowest fantasy points per dropback when using man. Interestingly, the Commanders have been using the second-highest rate of zone coverage with the fourth-lowest fantasy points per dropback in the playoffs. That shows us the small sample of two games and teams adjusting based on the game plan.
In Weeks 12-18, the Commanders ran the fourth-highest rate of Cover 1, with the highest rate of Cover 2 in the playoffs. It doesn't matter what type of defense you throw at A.J. Brown, as he typically crushes or finds a way to win.
That's evident in Brown garnering the fourth-highest target rate and second-highest yards per route run versus man coverage in Weeks 12-18. Meanwhile, Brown ranked fourth in yards per route run against Cover 1 and 53rd in yards per route versus Cover 2, showing defenses may want to avoid man coverage versus him.
If the Commanders continue playing more zone coverage, it seems to benefit DeVonta Smith over Brown. Brown earns a 22 percent target rate and produces 1.82 yards per route run versus zone coverage.
Meanwhile, Smith garners a 25 percent target rate with the fifth-highest yards per route run versus zone coverages in Weeks 12-18. He has been effective against man coverage, evidenced by a 26 percent target rate and 2.28 yards per route.
The main issue with the Eagles passing offense involves them having the fourth-highest rush rate in neutral game scripts, leading to lower volume and some inefficiencies.
Smith projects to face Noah Igbinoghene, allowing the 28th-lowest fantasy points per route and the 10th-fewest yards per route run. Rookie Mike Sainristil has shown flashes but had mediocre season-long numbers. That's evident in Sainristil allowing 0.27 fantasy points per route (No. 59) and 1.12 yards per route run (No. 54).
It's risky, but the data points toward an efficient game from Smith against Igbinoghene if the Commanders continue using zone coverage. The individual matchup looks worrisome for Smith, and Brown should dominate if the Commanders play man coverage like they did in the regular season. The Eagles passing offense has the weapons to beat the Commanders, and they might need to share the "Inner Excellence" book with other teams.
Notable Commanders WR/CB Matchups Against the Eagles
Terry McLaurin vs. Quinyon Mitchell (Isaiah Rodgers)
Dyami Brown vs. Cooper DeJean
In Weeks 12-18, the Eagles pass defense ran the second most Cover 4 and most Cover 6 since they used the 12th-highest rate of zone coverage. Olamide Zaccheaus led the Commanders with a 27 percent target rate while Terry McLaurin was close behind at 25 percent against Cover 4 and 6.
Meanwhile, Dyami Brown lacked the usage with a 13 percent target rate and 0.89 yards per route run against Cover 4 and 6 in Weeks 12-18. Zaccheaus rocks the best yards per route run among the trio, evidenced by the 2.55 yards per route run compared to McLaurin at 1.65 versus Cover 4 and 6.
Rookie Quinyon Mitchell has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league. Mitchell allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per route and the 11th-lowest yards per route run. He tied for fifth in forced incompletion rate and seventh in pass breakups.
Keep tabs on Mitchell's shoulder injury because he hadn't returned after the first quarter. If Mitchell misses, Isaiah Rodgers will likely fill in, ranking tied for 10th in forced incompletion rate. Rodgers has been solid in the small coverage route sample, allowing 0.63 yards per route and 0.19 fantasy points per route run.
That might not bode well for McLaurin, though Kliff Kingsbury showed he will scheme up targets for him in tougher matchups. We saw that against the Lions, who use tons of man and tight coverage, which McLaurin typically struggles with. However, they schemed up a receiver screenplay for McLaurin to counter the tight coverage the Lions use.
Brown is the wild card in the Commanders offense, and he came alive in the playoffs. Brown ranks 28th in target rate (28 percent) and fourth in yards per route run (4.07) in the playoffs among 77 qualified receivers and tight ends with 25 routes.
Rookie Cooper DeJean projects to face Brown, who allows the 29th-fewest fantasy points per route and the 30th-lowest yards per route run. Theoretically, we want to favor the offensive usage of Brown in the playoffs because volume should translate to production. In DFS or a playoff contest where you didn't expect to have the Commanders in the conference championship, use Brown as a pivot and upside play, though McLaurin is the chalk option.
Best of luck this week in the conference championship round matchups!
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