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Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of wide receivers to assess their situations for fantasy football. Should you buy into these receivers that are going higher in drafts?
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. Consider it the price you must pay to get a player on your team. A high ADP (meaning a low-numbered ADP) signals a player is going off draft boards early. And thus, you'll need to draft him in the first few rounds if you truly want him.
However, low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies, and we each rank players differently depending on what abilities we value. Regardless, ADP is important to know as that will be when the "average GM" may target that specific player. With free agency, the draft well finalized, and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs have changed over the last month as we get closer to draft season.
In this series, we'll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant ADP fluctuation. Using data from FFPC drafts, we'll evaluate where the players were being drafted the last time we checked and where they are currently being selected.
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Fantasy Football Wide Receivers - ADP Risers
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys decided to go all-in and trade for Brandin Cooks. However, that has yet to impact Gallup's ADP negatively thus far. Fantasy GMs believe the defense will focus all their attention on Gallup's teammates instead of him, opening ample room for Gallup to operate.
Gallup should be in line for a bounce-back season in 2023, though we may need to wait and see given his mediocre past. Yes, he was fantastic a few years back, but we're talking about a great season that happened not even in this decade (2019).
The Cowboys have a packed offense even with the departure of RB1 Ezekiel Elliott. Tony Pollard will make for a seamless transition in the backfield, and the receiving corps now features a trio of super-talented pass-catchers in Cooks, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup.
Will Gallup be able to overtake both/any of his two main competitors for targets, though? Gallup went from top-25 production in 2019 to only top-40 in PPR points in 2020 while still healthy. Buy Gallup at his price, but keep an eye out on that ridiculous upward trend because there will be a time when too much will just be too much.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
The rise in Moore's ADP comes from addition by subtraction, mostly. If you have been living under a rock for the past month, you might have missed the huge news coming out of the desert: WR DeAndre Hopkins is a Cardinal no more.
It's funny because the last time we talked about ADP moves, Hopkins had floated the idea of staying put in 'Zona for the remainder of the season. But oh, how things have changed in a few short days. On Friday, May 26, the Cardinals dropped the hammer and released Hopkins.
The main beneficiary in the Cardinals' offense appears to be WR1 Marquise Brown; however, opposing defenses will be forced to focus on him more. As a result, Rondale Moore should have more room to operate. Also, Moore is climbing the pecking order at the position and will be the WR2 in Arizona's offense.
Moore only appeared in eight games from Week 4 through Week 11 last season before calling it a year. In those outings, he broke for top-24 PPR points at the position four times, including a season-best 23.4 PPR tally in Week 9. Moore is a YAC beast, with his 5.0 YAC per target ranking second in the league and the freakish 98th percentile among pass-catchers.
He usually handles the slot (43.5% of his routes came from there last year) and has a 50% contested-catch rate. The Cards won't have many better pass-catching options than Moore outside of Brown and TE Zach Ertz. The young receiver Moore becomes a winner by default, and the bump up in ADP is understandable and acceptable.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Since the last time we talked, WR John Metchie (hamstring) has been sidelined with a hamstring injury after having already missed his rookie season last year. The Texans should also rule out a DeAndre Hopkins comeback, even though Hopkins wouldn't reportedly be against returning. But what's the point when Houston is not even remotely close to winning anything, especially when the Bills and Chiefs have been calling him?
Additionally, free agent Tyler Johnson was confirmed to leave the Texans when he signed with the Los Angeles Rams on Tuesday, May 30. Johnson was not the biggest threat, but now Collins has one fewer player to fight with for targets.
Collins, of course, also won't have to deal with Brandin Cooks, who went to Dallas in an offseason trade a few months ago. Collins is a breakout candidate entering 2023, and the competition for targets will be virtually nonexistent in Houston. Pair that with the fact that Hopkins likely won't return and rookie QB C.J. Stroud is now under center. Both of which could be fantastic for Collins' upside.
As long as the ADP keeps rising but stays under control, Collins should be a reasonable bet with a late-round pick in fantasy drafts this summer.
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