Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 1 Analysis

September 18, 2020

Wide receivers rely on targets and high snap counts for fantasy football value. Phil Clark's Week 1 target and reception trends for 2020 WRs to find risers and fallers who are possible buy-low or sell-high candidates.

After months of research, conversation, and recommendations regarding potential usage and production for wide receivers, we can finally shift into the analysis of actual regular-season matchups. The results of Week 1 provided a collection of impressive performances, including several surprising developments. It also delivered our first opportunity to examine the massive assortment of numbers that were generated during the season openers for all 32 teams.

Those results provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the wide receiver position. This will be the first installment that will examine game-specific data, including updated totals for targets, red-zone targets, snap counts, and a blend of advanced statistics. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers are being utilized, and how effectively they are capitalizing on their opportunities. It is also designed to help with your roster decisions throughout the season.

This week’s article will be functioning with one week of data, which will construct the baseline from which the numbers that are generated in the upcoming weeks can be evaluated. Beginning next week, noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. That will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Pro Football Reference, NextGenStats, Rotowire, Rotoviz, PFF, and Football Outsiders were all used as resources in compiling this data.

Week 1 Target Leaders

Aaron Rodgers ➡ Davante Adams in Week 1:
? 17 targets
? 14 completions
? 156 yards
? 2 TDs
? 8 1Ds
? 144.1 passer rating

??? pic.twitter.com/9y7ZYlOaRM

— PFF (@PFF) September 14, 2020

 

It was hardly a secret that Adams would enter Week 1 as Green Bay's primary receiving weapon. It has also been well-documented that he would operate without any tangible competition for targets. This triggered offseason projections that Adams would stockpile targets throughout 2020,  as Aaron Rodgers was expected to locate his most reliable option with great frequency. This perfect convergence of talent and opportunity ultimately yielded the highly anticipated usage that was expected, as Adams captured a league-high 17 targets during Green Bay’s NFC North matchup in Minnesota.

Adams has now collected 10+ targets in nine of his last 10 regular-season contests and is a logical candidate to lead the NFL in this category throughout the season - provided that he can achieve sustained health. Anyone who drafted Adams in 2019 can easily remember his modest numbers through Week 8. He was only 47th in receptions (25) and 39th in receiving yards (378) as he contended with the impact of turf toe.

But he averaged 11.4 targets per game during his final eight matchups and finished second in targets from Weeks 12-16 (57). The results of his statistical surge were consistent with his usage during 2018 when Adams averaged a league-best 11,3 targets per game.

He also finished just one target behind Julio Jones for the league lead (170/169) and might have paced the NFL in this category if he had eluded the knee injury that sidelined him in Week 17.

Among the top 25 receivers in targets during Week 1 of 2019, 13 receivers accomplished it once again this season. Adams spearheaded this list, along with Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, Jamison Crowder, Amari Cooper, T.Y. Hilton, John Brown, Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, and Odell Beckham Jr.

A career-high 14 catches for @DeandreHopkins in his @AZCardinals debut. #AZCardinals

?: #AZvsSF on FOX
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/5o8cWoN1yf pic.twitter.com/zh3QAsAL5f

— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2020

Hopkins has finished fifth in targets during each of the last two seasons (150/163) and is second overall entering Week 2. His impressive debut with Arizona will be discussed in the Five Things I Noticed section. Amari Cooper overcame a hamstring issue and the attention of Jalen Ramsey to collect Week 1's third-highest target total (14).

Exactly one year ago, Jamison Crowder led the NFL with 17 targets following the matchups of Week 1. He collected 13 passes from Sam Darnold during the season opener and should remain a steady presence as the dependable weapon that is desperately needed in the Jet offense.

Atlanta’s trio of wide receivers all tied with 12 targets during Week 1, and the performances of Jones and Calvin Ridley will also be examined in the Five Things I Noticed section. Quintez Cephus was targeted 10 times during his professional debut, as Detroit functioned without Kenny Golladay.

I love the Lions' pick of Wisconsin WR Quintez Cephus. I said before he reminded me of a young Michael Irvin in terms of size/speed. Top Big Ten CBs said he was toughest to defend. Would have been drafted much higher if he had run better at combine (4.73)

— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) April 25, 2020

This tied the newcomer with Will Fuller, Brown, Beckham, and Diontae Johnson. Stefon Diggs captured nine targets during his first game with Buffalo, which tied him with eight other receivers. 11 players collected eight targets, including Seattle teammates D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett, and rookie Jerry Jeudy.

Last year’s target leader placed outside the top 60 during Week 1, as Michael Thomas only collected five during New Orleans’ season opener. That was his lowest total since Week 11 of 2018. Mike Evans was targeted just four times by Tom Brady during the substandard debut of Tampa Bay’s transformed attack. D.J. Chark registered just three targets, which was his lowest total since Week 17 of 2018.

Gage and Cephus were mentioned previously as unexpected names to appear among the top 20. Parris Campbell’s nine targets established a career-high. His total also tied him with A.J. Green, who achieved his highest weekly total since Week 7 of 2018.

Week 1 Yards-Per-Target

The list of leaders in yards per target average includes a cluster of players that are not usually located near the top of receiving categories. Steven Sims leads all receivers 16.7, followed by Willie Snead 16.0, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (16.0), and Allen Lazard (15.8). Robby Anderson is next (14.4), followed by two Vikings -  Bisi Johnson (14.0), and Adam Thielen (13.8). Julio Jones and Robert Woods are tied at 13.1, followed by Corey Davis (12.6), Scott Miller (12.2), and D.K. Metcalf (11.9). DeVante Parker (11.8), Tyler Lockett (11.5), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (11.5) are among the seven receivers that averaged between 11.0-11.9, while Calvin Ridley (10.8), Jarvis Landry (10.2), and Michael Gallup (10.0) complete the collection of 21 receivers that averaged at least 10 yards per target during Week 1.

Week 1 Air Yards

Most deep targets W1:

1. Allen Robinson II - 5
2. DeSean Jackson - 4 pic.twitter.com/P59r6H7sBZ

— PFF (@PFF) September 16, 2020

DeSean Jackson leads all wide receivers in air yards after the season openers (210). Jones is second overall (195), followed by Adams (166), Robinson (150), Ridley (147), Reagor (144), Williams (143), and Thielen (140). Fuller was next (128), followed by Green (127), Valdes-Scantling (123), Metcalf (119), and Cephus (117).

Jackson also leads all wide receivers in targeted air yards (29.1) while Marquise Brown is second (21). Valdes-Scantling is third overall (20.8), followed by Adam Thielen (18.7) newcomer Henry Ruggs (18.5), Anthony Miller (18.2), and Michael Gallup (17.4). Robinson and Mike Williams are tied at 16.1, followed by Christian Kirk (15.5), Julio Jones (15.4), Preston Williams (15.1), Green (14.7), and Metcalf at 14.1.

Metcalf leads all receivers in percentage share of team’s air yards (61.7) while Ruggs is second following his debut with Las Vegas (60.8). Julian Edelman is third (57.8), followed by Hopkins (53.8), Thielen (53.6), Fuller (50.6), Marquise Brown (47.3), and Slayton (46.4). Mike Williams is next (46.0), followed by Cooper (45.9), and Green (44.6) completing the top 10. Adams, Robinson, and Jackson are included among the 20 receivers who averaged a percentage share of 40+ during Week 1.

Week 1 First Downs

Thomas led all wide receivers with 91 first downs during 2019. He was joined in the top 20 by Jones (77), Hopkins (68), and four receivers that were tied with 63 - Chris Godwin, Robinson, Moore, and Keenan Allen. But Thomas only registered one first down reception during this season's Week 1 matchups while Hopkins and Jones were the only receivers that resurfaced among the top five.

Jones’ teammate Ridley registered the highest weekly total (9). Adams and Hopkins were next (8), followed by Gage (7), Corey Davis (7), Jones (6), Stefon Diggs (6), Sammy Watkins (6), and Darius Slayton (6). Will Fuller, John Brown, Adam Thielen, and JuJu Smith-Schuster all registered five receptions, while a whopping 14 receivers collected four receptions for first downs during their season openers.

Week 1 Red Zone Targets

33-year-old Emmanuel Sanders leads all wide receivers with four red zone targets in Week 1. This is similar to the early results of 2019 when Sanders finished in a three-way tie for the league lead after the season openers.

Adams and Ridley collected three targets inside the 20, which tied them with John Brown, and Sammy Watkins. Robinson, Cooper, Woods, and newcomer Cephus were among the 11 receivers that were targeted twice during Week 1.

Watkins was the only wide receiver to register three targets inside the 10, while Sanders, Adams, Brown, and Cephus were all targeted twice. Sanders and Adams were the only receivers to exceed one target inside the five.

Week 1 Snap Counts

Stefon Diggs performed on a league-leading 82 offensive snaps during his first matchup as a Bill, while his new teammate John Brown was second overall with 81. DeAndre Hopkins was third for the week (77), followed by Marvin Jones (71), Keenan Allen (70), and Davante Adams (70). Michael Gallup was next (69), while Amari Cooper was tied with Calvin Ridley and Allen Lazard at 68. Chris Godwin, A.J. Brown, and Corey Davis were next (66) while Terry McLaurin, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and Larry Fitzgerald all played on 65 offensive snaps.

Breshad Perriman performed on 100% of the offensive snaps during his debut with the Jets, which led his position in Week 1. Metcalf was second (98.4), followed by Thielen (96.2), Gallup (95.8), Allen (94.6), and Cooper (94.4), while Godwin and Diggs were both involved in 94.3% of their team's offensive snaps. Hopkins, Lockett, Evans, and McLaurin where among the group of 10 other receivers that performed on over 90% of their team's snaps.

Five Things I Noticed

Calvin Ridley is the sixth player to have 135+ receptions and 19+ receiving touchdowns within his first 30 games, since the AFL-NFL merger in 1966.

Randy Moss
Marques Colston
Julio Jones
Allen Robinson
Odell Beckham Jr.
CALVIN RIDLEY pic.twitter.com/usktz1wtGW

— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) September 14, 2020

1. The numbers for Atlanta’s wide receivers were discussed earlier, as Matt Ryan targeted Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage 12 times. All three players captured nine of their targets, although the usage and production for Ridley and Jones are most significant to fantasy GMs. Ridley’s prospects of delivering a breakout season became a popular topic within the fantasy community during the offseason and propelled him to WR15 during the draft process. This was partially based upon his statistical surge during his final six regular-season matchups of 2019 (Weeks 8-14) which coincided with the departure of Mohamed Sanu. Ridley was ninth in point per game scoring during that sequence, while averaging 8.2 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 82.1 yards per game after Sanu had been traded to New England.

The same pathway toward expanded opportunities remains intact, and the potential exists for both Ridley and Jones to perform as WR1s for fantasy GMs. Jones generated a league-high 157 yards and averaged exactly three yards per reception more than Ridley during the season opener (17.4/14.4). But Ridley produced the only two touchdowns that were registered by an Atlanta receiver. He also leads the NFL in first downs (9) and has joined Jones among the top five in air yards after Week 1.

Gage matched the target and reception totals of his teammates and eclipsed 100 yards (114) while operating in the slot. However, no other Falcons garnered significant usage beyond Jones, Ridley, and Gage. Hayden Hurst was targeted five times during his Atlanta debut, and the team’s backfield components (Todd Gurley/Brian Hill/Ito Smith) combined for 10. Hurts and Gage can be expected to experience fluctuations in their usage during the year. But the favorable target totals for Ridley and Jones should remain a frequent occurrence throughout the season. Jones remains an elite presence at age 31 and should finish near the top of every major receiving category. Ridley is on track to perform as a high-end WR2 with the potential to approach the aforementioned WR1 status.

2. The full ramifications of Bill O'Brien's decision to discard DeAndre Hopkins have yet to unfold. But the initial results that transpired during Week 1 did nothing to diminish scorching criticism of the trade that weakened Houston’s passing attack. Hopkins had averaged 159.5 targets from 2014 to 2019 while accumulating 580 receptions and 7,800 yards during that span. He also finished among the top two in target share during 2018 (33.1%) and 2019 (29.2%). Those numbers appeared difficult to replicate, even though Hopkins would retain WR1 responsibilities with Arizona.

However, concerns about Hopkins’ ability to maintain his elite status have been eviscerated after he soared to the league lead in target share (43.2%). His 16 targets placed him second overall, while he also tied with Adams for the league lead in receptions (14), and was third in yardage behind Adams and Jones (151). He also finished fourth in percentage share of team’s air yards (53.8%) while providing second-year signal-caller Kyler Murray with a legitimate centerpiece to the passing game.

Houston's first game in the post-Hopkins era was not as encouraging. Deshaun Watson distributed a team-high 10 targets to Will Fuller, who was easily the Texans' primary receiver. Fuller also led the team in receptions (8) and receiving yards (112) while finishing sixth overall in both target share (32.3%) and percentage share of team’s air yards (50.6%). Houston’s offseason acquisitions Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb combined for just four receptions and just 43 yards. Their underwhelming numbers underscore the importance of Fuller, whose home run potential has been negated by his failure to evade health issues during his first four seasons (26 missed games). His ability to remain on the field will be critical for a Houston passing attack that has been negatively impacted by the loss of Hopkins.

3. Hopkins was not the only prominent wide receiver to make his debut in a fresh environment. Stefon Diggs was disenchanted throughout 2019, which prompted his trade from Minnesota to Buffalo. This infused Diggs into a passing attack that had improved marginally from 31^st in 2018 (174 yards per game) to 26^th last season (202 yards per game). The receiving unit had been bolstered by the additions of John Brown and Cole Beasley, as Beasley operated as a reliable slot weapon, while Brown became a proficient presence downfield.

The arrival of Diggs was designed to fortify the Bills’ arsenal of receivers even further while providing Josh Allen with an enormously talented weapon. Diggs finished second overall in yards per target (12.0) and was fourth in yards per reception (17.9) during 2019. He also finished third in percentage share of their team’s air yards (41.5). However, the addition of Diggs also threatened to diminish Brown's productivity as a downfield option. Brown generated career highs in targets (115) and receptions, (72) while eclipsing 1,000 yards for the first time in his career (1,060). He also finished eighth in percentage share of air yards (36.1) and was also 15th in targeted air yards (14.2). Brown also registered the second-highest averages of his career in yards per target (9.2) and yards per reception (14.7).

But both perimeter receivers were productive during the Bills’ AFC East matchup with the Jets, as they combined for 19 targets, 14 receptions, and 156 yards. Diggs collected eight of his nine targets for 86 yards, while Brown captured six of his 10 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Brown attained a higher average in yards per reception (11.7/10.8), while Diggs averaged 9.6 yards per target, compared to 7.0 for Brown. Diggs’ target share (20.0), and percentage share of air yards (31.9) were both lower than Brown’s (22.2/35.9). But the Week 1 performance for both perimeter receivers was beneficial for fantasy GMs that inserted them into their lineups.

4. Smith-Schuster’s Round 3 ADP was an indication that most fantasy GMs believed in his ability to deliver numbers that easily exceed his disappointing output from 2019. During his first game with Ben Roethlisberger‘s under center, Smith-Schuster captured all six of his targets, generated a team-high 69 yards, and produced two touchdowns. It was the first time that he has assembled multiple touchdowns since Week 14 of 2018, and he has almost matched last year’s season total (3) after just one contest.

The rapidly emerging Diontae Johnson paced the Steelers in targets during 2019 (92/5.8 per game) and was the team leader once again during their opener (10/34.4% share). He also matched Smith-Schuster’s six receptions and accrued 57 yards. Smith-Schuster also averaged 11.5 yards per target, which is an encouraging development considering his average of 8.3 during 2018-2019. Both Smith-Schuster and Johnson played on 55% of the offensive snaps, followed by James Washington (37%), and Chase Claypool during his NFL debut (19%).

The belief from here is that the absence of Antonio Brown was more impactful in Smith-Schuster's statistical decline than the loss or Roethlisberger -even though the talent deficiencies in Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges were significant. Johnson was able to navigate the unfavorable situation as a rookie (92 targets/58 receptions/680 yards) which suggests that Smith-Schuster's 2019 numbers should not be dismissed as solely a quarterback issue.

However, having Roethlisberger's reemergence will be beneficial to Smith-Schuster. It also presents good news for fantasy GMs that have Smith-Schuster or Johnson on their rosters. Roethlisberger does have a track record of spearheading offenses that can sustain two highly productive receivers, which was underscored by the numbers that Smith Schuster and Brown accrued during 2018. Regardless of how you valued Smith-Schuster before Week 1, he now appears primed to rebound significantly from last year’s discouraging results.

5. 21 wide receivers were chosen during last April’s NFL Draft before Detroit selected Quintez Cephus. While he was the subject of favorable reports during training camp, Cephus did not make his entrance into the fantasy landscape until last Sunday. But the former Wisconsin Badger led all rookies with 10 targets, which tied him for eighth overall. Kenny Golladay’s hamstring issue elevated Cephus into an expanded role during the Lions’ home opener, and he responded by leading Detroit in team target share (22.5), and also in percentage share of team’s air yards (32.2).

Jerry Jeudy is pretty good at this route-running thing, meow just needs to fix the drops pic.twitter.com/KNp4fjLppi

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 15, 2020

Jerry Jeudy accumulated the highest target total (8) among the six rookies that were drafted in Round 1. He is functioning as Denver’s WR1 during Courtland Sutton’s absence and performed on 44 snaps (75%). He also caught four passes, experienced two drops, and amassed 56 yards. CeeDee Lamb was involved in 82% of the snaps with Dallas and ran routes from the slot on 50 of his 59 plays. He also collected six targets, and led the newcomers in receptions (5), and receiving yards (59).

Henry Ruggs was targeted five times by Derek Carr and operated from the slot on 72% of his plays. He was sidelined during part of the Raiders’ Week 1 matchup in Carolina (knee). But he still caught three passes for 55 yards, averaged 18.3 yards per reception, and was second overall in percentage share of team's air yards (60.8). Jalen Reagor registered four targets and only managed one reception. However, that lone catch generated 55 yards. Justin Jefferson collected two of his three targets for 26 yards while functioning almost solely from the slot (94.5%).

Second-round selection Laviska Shenault Jr. (4 targets/3 receptions/37 yards /1 touchdown) was deployed outside on 56.7% of his 30 offensive plays while finishing third among Jacksonville wide receivers in snap count percentage (62%). Van Jefferson captured one of his three targets and played four fewer snaps than Josh Reynolds (37/33). But he should bypass Reynolds on LA’s depth chart very soon.

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