Why Luis Castillo Will Be a Top Ten Pitcher in 2020

Luis Castillo is an awesome pitcher.

He finally put it all together in 2019 and had the season we all have waited for. In 190.2 innings he produced a 3.40 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 18.8 K-BB%, and elite 15.9 SwStr%. Castillo finished the year as the 14th best pitcher in baseball according to Razzball’s player rater.

While that is an amazing feat in itself, Castillo isn’t done yet and could be taking another step forward.

Underlying Stats

When it comes to ERA metrics it looks like Castillo should regress in 2020. His 3.40 ERA came with a 3.70 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, and 3.95 SIERA. Those are only starting points though, while those metrics are great in their own right we still need to investigate and dive even deeper. 

Castillo raised his strikeout rate from 23.3% to 28.9% but with it also came an increase in walk percentage from 6.9% to 10.1%. Castillo has had an average walk rate of 8.7% and even in the minors he only touched double digits one. Thus leading us to expect that number to come down. 

As far as his already impressive 28.9% strikeout rate we should see a bump in that as well. His SwStr% last year was at 15.9%. K% and SwStr% correlate well together and the rule of thumb is to double a pitchers SwStr% and you get the K% they deserve. Which means Castillo’s strikeout rate should breach 30% next year. Overall that means Castillo should walk fewer batters while also producing more strikeouts. Expect his 18.8 K-BB% to increase, and what stat is one of the best indicators of ERA? K-BB%. 

Arsenal: Changeup

Overall

The greatness of this pitch is almost impossible to describe. In 2019 it produced a 26.6 SwStr%, 46.8 K%, .128 batting average against and 26.6 pVAL. In terms of changeups, he ranked first in all of those categories. He also had the most swinging strikes in the chase zone when using an offspeed pitch. In other words, hitters chased this pitch a ton. 

Movement

In terms of movement, this pitch is above league average in both vertical and horizontal movement. This pitch starts off on the left side of the plate and starts to move with a horizontal movement of  -9.35, while also dipping 1.23 inches. The two movements combined leave hitters standing at the plate dumbfounded. 

Location

In terms of location Castillo places this pitch perfectly. He paints the outside corner a ton, jamming right-handed hitters at their knees. He actually lives under the zone with this pitch as it provided a mere 24.6 Zone%. That’s okay though because it is his swing and miss pitch and his chase pitch. He has an insane 50.2 O-Swing% with this pitch.

Splits

Luis Castillo liked to go to his changeup against both right-handed (RHH) and left-handed hitters (LHH), but he did throw it against LHH more. He used it 24% of the time versus RHH and 38% of the time versus LHH. The funny thing is, it was more productive against RHH so it might be smart if he upped its overall usage overall. A fun fact about his splits is he threw 43 changeups against RHH in the month of July and didn’t give up a single hit.

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball

Using the @BaseballCloudUS BallR tool, you can visually demonstrate spin direction and gryo orientation differential between the #Reds Luis Castillo's four-seamer and changeup. #BornToBaseball pic.twitter.com/HVoUfTu9JK

— Michael Augustine (@AugustineMLB) July 2, 2020

Overall

This is Castillo’s second most used pitch. He throws it 96.4 MPH and produces above-average whiff rates. Overall this is a decent pitch but probably the weakest in his arsenal. While it does have an above-average Barrel rate its xwOBAcon is slightly worse than average.

Movement

At times Castillo does pump up this pitch into the high 90’s and creates a ton of vertical movement. Overall in 2019, the vertical movement of this pitch went from 6.24 to 7.92 from the beginning of the year to the end. While the vertical rise went up, his results weren’t much better. 

Location

This seems to be the reason Castillo’s four-seam isn’t producing the great results it could be. When Castillo puts this high and tight he creates a ton of whiffs, but a lot of the time he does leave this pitch over the plate. Increased command on this pitch could do wonders for Castillo.

Splits

Against RHH this pitch is a lot more successful as it produced a .352 xwOBAcon, 4.2 Barrel%, and 43.8 GB%. Meanwhile, against LHH it produced a .493 xwOBAcon, 8.3 Barrel%, and 31.7 GB%. For some reason, Castillo throws it more versus LHH and maybe he should rely on his two-seam more.

Arsenal: Two-Seam Fastball

Overall

This pitch provides an insane amount of weak contact. It produced a 3.6 Barrel% and 71.4 GB%, both well above average. In fact, that ground ball percentage was second highest in the league. Castillo’s two-seam fastball was one of only two pitches in the league that produced a GB% over 65.0% and Barrel% under 4.0%.

Movement

This pitch has a ton of movement both horizontally and vertically. This pitch is very much like his changeup except it comes in at 96.5 MPH. The pitch starts off at the left side of the plate and quickly slides over to the right. A ton of movement and a very pretty pitch to watch.

Location

Castillo locates this well and exemplifies both command and control when it comes to this pitch. He loves to throw it low and in on RHH much like his changeup. Now imagine facing him with a pitch the runs in on your knees and you don’t know if the pitch will be coming in at 96.5 MPH or 87.2 MPH. Good luck.

Splits

Castillo doesn’t use this pitch that much against LHH. Deservedly so as it isn’t nearly as effective as it is against RHH. Against RHH this pitch produced some gaudy numbers with a .261 xwOBAcon, 1.3 Barrel%, and 75.0 GB%. His pitch splits for this pitch seem to be spot on.

Arsenal: Slider

Overall

This was Castillo’s second swing and miss pitch in 2019. And it is a very good one at that. It produced a 19.6 SwStr%, 37.7 O-Swing%, and .209 xBA. With similar speed to his changeup, it makes his slider/changeup combo very tough to deal with. 

Movement

This pitch doesn’t have a ton of movement but it does have some loop to it. His slider is more of a mini curveball and breaks just enough to miss bats. While it would be nice to see some more movement it is hard to argue with his results.

Location

Castillo locates this pitch really well and actually puts it in the opposite direction of his changeup. He likes to throw it on the outside corner against RHH and commands it very well. 

Splits

As far as left/right splits this pitch is a lot like his two-seam fastball as he throws this mainly against RHH. There isn’t much difference in this pitch between LHH and RHH besides the groundball rate. Against RHH the groundball rate was 61.0% while against LHH it was 30.0%.

What Did We Learn?

Overall Luis Castillo doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses. While his four-seam seems to be the one weakness it isn’t even that bad of a pitch it is average. But with three well-above-average pitches in his two-seam, changeup, and slider Castillo seems primed to take another step forward. Plus don’t forget that his walk rate should drop and his strikeout rate should rise! Expect Castillo to finish as a top ten pitcher and to stay there for years to come.

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