X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Which Pitchers With New Pitches Should We Care About? Part Two

Eric Samulski continues evaluating starting pitchers who have developed new pitches for 2021 to determine if these additions to their pitch mix will increase fantasy baseball value and make them breakout performers.

Spring Training is coming to a close, and we're inching closer to getting to the "real thing." That means an opportunity to see which players' offseason changes can lead to true breakouts or perhaps which guys will fall back on old habits. As the games have been going on, I've been keeping track of pitchers who have added new pitches and trying to watch their outings in the spring to see if the new pitch is something we should get excited about or not. Last week I covered five guys, so today we'll do five more.

The working premise of this article is simply that a new pitch isn't always a good thing. If it is just the same as a pitch the pitcher already throws or is used to target the same area of the plate then it doesn't add anything to the arsenal and may even take away from the effectiveness of a pitch he already throws. So instead of blindly celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, we need to look at whether or not it makes the pitcher any more effective.

I've created some videos using the camera angles we have at our disposal (which are not all great) to show how the new pitch should work in tandem with the pitches that the pitcher already throws. From there I tried to give you a simple verdict as to whether we should care about this new toy or not. Be sure to also check out the rest of my articles in this "Pitchers With New Pitches" series for analysis and deep dives on more starting pitchers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Kenta Maeda - Curve

Over the last two years, Maeda has drastically cut down on his four-seam fastball usage, becoming one of the rare pitchers who rely heavily on strictly off-speed pitches. The slider and change-up make up 68% of his usage. He uses those pitches to attack opposite corners of the plate, and they both are impressive swing-and-miss pitches with the slider having a 19.2% SwtSr in 2020 and 34.6% CSW while the changeup had a ridiculous 26.4% SwStr and a 32.1% CSW.

So where does the curveball fit in? Well, in our limited sample size, he seems to use it as a strike pitch to attack down and in on righties. In fact, Maeda has said as much:

Now we can also see it in action:

With more 12-6 break and less sweep, it has a different shape than the previous version of his curve. The added "hump" on this curve almost makes it seem like the pitch hangs in the air before darting down in the zone. This version seems to have less horizontal break than the version he was throwing (albeit only 3.4% of the time) in 2020. This new shape even further differentiates the curve from the other pitches in his arsenal and gives the batter an entirely new shape to adjust to.

Considering the pitch appears to primarily be used down in the zone and away from lefties, it can also make it harder for them to adjust to the change-up when Maeda goes back to it as an outpitch. For instance, if a hitter thinks Maeda is going to throw him a pitch away because he just wasted a fastball up, that pitch away had just been a change-up before, now it might be a changeup or a curve, so the batter can't sit on a particular look.

Since Maeda's fastball only sits at 91.6 MPH and his sinker has been only marginally effective in its limited use over the last couple of seasons, the curveball would be an intriguing fourth pitch that would keep hitters off of the fastball and help Maeda get into counts where he can use that slider-changeup combination to get outs.

VERDICT:

Minimally impactful. I was already high on Maeda this year, and this certainly doesn't change that. However, I don't think this will drastically change him as a pitcher. If anything, this will give him another offering that can help him as he sees lineups a second or third time in one game.

 

Aaron Civale - Change-up

Civale's new pitch is a new iteration of a pitch he already threw (albeit only 9.2% of the time last year). Here's the philosophy in his own words: “I’m transitioning to a split-change from a changeup. Just a little bit better pairing with the pitches that I currently have. There’s some shortening of the arm path for timing, sequence. There’s a few things that are visibly different. Once we get into games I’m sure you’ll be able to see some of it. It’s a good transition. Pretty smooth.”

He's right that there are a few things that are visibly different:

The new split-change has a touch less velocity than his pitch last year but, as you can see above, bites down harder in the zone and even seems to have more horizontal movement (when he has it working). While we have no specific spin data so far, last year's changeup had 28.7 inches of vertical drop and -45 deviation (seen below). This new pitch will likely register significantly more drop and more deviation based on Observed Movement, which will differentiate it even more from the sinker, which could add deception.

As the graphic shows, Civale's sinker and change-up approach the hitter on a similar trajectory, but the new change-up will feature more deviation towards 4 o'clock. Since the curveball mirrors the sinker pretty well, a changeup that has more splitter movement will mean that Civale's four main pitches will have an observed movement at 2 o'clock, 4 o'clock, 7 o'clock, and 11 o'clock. That gives him an arsenal that can attack all areas of the strike zone with divergent types of movement. He would also have multiple pitches that either mirror each other or move in directly oppositional ways, which is something we love to see.

It's hard not to trust the Indians with pitcher development, and I think they and Civale are right that this new pitch could be a major boost for him.

VERDICT:

Unsure but potentially a meaningful impact. This would be a solid addition for Civale if he can master the pitch. In addition to those clips above, I watched a bunch more change-ups that hung in the zone, including one that Donovan Solano pounded out of the ballpark. If Civale can't get the consistent break, the pitch will continue to get hit hard, and he's back to a three-pitch pitcher. It'll take a few starts to see how consistent he can be with the pitch, but if early returns are good, this would bump Civale up in my rankings a bit.

 

Zach Plesac - Curveball

Let's move over to Civale's teammate, who also spent the offseason tweaking an existing pitch: “I just really worked on the curveball,” said Plesac. “If I can land the curveball and get that thing efficient and consistent, we’re going to be in a really good spot. A lot of things cleaned up this offseason. We took some time off but really just staying consistent with my mechanics, staying within yourself and working on that curveball."

It's pretty clear from the limited video we have, that Plesac has opted for sharper bite on the curve, which he has (again, in limited sample) thrown harder than last year. That seems to almost blend the curve a little more with the slider, which may add to his deception (if he can command the pitch).

Plesac only threw his curveball 9.3% of the time last year but 63% of those were against lefties. This is where the pitch seems to be most crucial for him. Last year, the right-hander was just a fastball, slider, and changeup pitcher, but he only threw his slider 5.1% of the time against left-handed hitters. 205 of his total 216 sliders were thrown to righties, which means Plesac was essentially a two-pitch pitcher against left-handed hitters, which we can see here pretty clearly when looking at the pitches he threw to lefties in a game versus the White Sox last year.

While the results against left-handed hitters so far in Plesac's career haven't been bad, having only two pitches you use against batters will eventually catch up with you, so adding a third pitch is a good thing. However, it also appears from spring starts that Plesac is more comfortable using the curve away against lefties, which is essentially where he uses the changeup, so he's not really going to be attacking a new area of the plate.

Given that Plesac hasn't shown a lot of control of the pitch in Spring Training and that it doesn't really allow him to become more impactful in a different part of the strike zone, I'm not overly optimistic that it's a game-changer pitch for him. In fact, if you look at Plesac's arsenal in terms of the strike zone heat map, his curve has previously been a scattershot mess and now seems likely to target a zone that one of his best pitches already targets.

Perhaps Plesac would be better off with a cutter or a sinker he can throw up in the zone, somewhat similar to Framber Valdez, which would allow him to lose his four-seam fastball, which is his worst pitch but also add a dimension that he doesn't currently have.

VERDICT:

Moderately impactful. Anytime you can go from a two-pitch pitcher to a three-pitch pitcher, it's a meaningful improvement, so Plesac having another offering for left-handed hitters is something we all should want. However, he's clearly still struggling with the command of it and it doesn't seem like a pitch that will drastically change how he attacks lefties. Perhaps this would raise Plesac's floor but not his ceiling too much and I'm not one of those people who is buying into a massive breakout.

 

JT Brubaker - Slider and Curve

After Brubaker broke into the rotation last year, I had some level of intrigue about him coming into 2021. He was able to limit hard contact and has an interesting array of pitches that gives him the ability to attack most areas of the strike zone.

He also throws a changeup (although not that often) down and in the righties, which always him to cover all corners of the strike zone.  Given that and the movement on his pitches, there seemed to be solid potential for Brubaker. In particular, his breaking pitches were effective last year with a 38.1 K% and 38.8% CSW on the slider and 40.9% K% and 30% CSW on the curve. It was his fastball that was his worst pitch, with a 10.08 deserved ERA and 10.5% CSW.

In the offseason, he claimed that he wanted to "unblend by separating himself and his pitches." OK, more separation on pitch offerings isn't a bad thing, but if the pitches work well off of one another, it's not always necessary. I was worried he'd alter the shape and perhaps lessen the effectiveness of those pitches.

But then when you read more about his plans, the shape of his breaking pitches seems to be less important: "Brubaker focused on his release, working to make sure he stays out in front with it and doesn’t get too sidearm in his delivery. And he wants to develop a mentality to attack hitters by getting ahead in the count and staying north-south in the strike zone. 'Mentally, if you’re telling yourself to go after a hitter, your body’s going to go after the hitter,' Brubaker said. 'So it starts mentally, just making sure I’m attacking and staying on the attack on hitters.'"

Then I watched some spring games and didn't actually see a major shift in the shape and delivery of his breaking pitches.

I guess the slider has a bit more cutter-shape now than it did last year, but not by much and the velocity is pretty much the same. The curve has also been a touch harder this spring with more movement in on lefties, but nothing too drastic. All-in-all, he seems like relatively the same pitcher in terms of the arsenal. Perhaps him attacking more and working more north-south in the zone will mean more sinkers up since he lives in the middle a bit in the plot above. That's good, and could make his breaking balls more effective, but I wouldn't say that he introduced a new pitch here.

VERDICT:

Not impactful. These breaking pitches aren't particularly different and don't really change my valuation of Brubaker. I still think he's intriguing as an arm, and I guess I'll now be watching to see if he throws that sinker up in the zone. If he can use the sinker more in place of the four-seam fastball and perhaps add his changeup in more as the fourth pitch, there's a chance for Brubaker to take another step forward.

 

Daulton Jefferies - Slider

First of all, we need to talk about how hard it is to watch certain players during Spring Training. Jeffries has been crushing it this spring, but it's impossible to see HOW he's doing it because only one of his spring games was in a stadium that was broadcasting the game. Thus, we only have this one inning from his first spring start against the Dodgers.

However, perhaps that one start is enough. I mean, that slider is nasty. In addition to the break being filthy, the hard downward bite is a perfect complement to the rest of his arsenal, which is built around a 95 mph fastball and a power changeup that is really more of a sinker. In fact, if you look at the pitches he showed in his brief MLB debut last year, everything is hard.

We take into account that the sinker and changeup are really the same pitch and he just varied the speed on it a bit, and Jefferies has an arsenal that is mostly versions of a fastball at 90 mph or above. That's where that slider comes in. For starters, it gives him a strikeout weapon against right-handed hitters, but since he also throws the slider hard, it pairs well with a fastball-cutter-sinker repertoire and makes him a more dynamic pitcher.

VERDICT:

While I haven't been able to watch a ton of Jefferies this spring, I think this pitch can be a catapult for him. Remember, this is a former 37th overall pick who has shown plus command and mound presence throughout his minor league career. If the slider consistently looks like it did against the Dodgers then he now has a more diverse and deception arsenal to pair with his plus command. We could be looking at a Tyler Mahle or Dylan Bundy type of rise up the starting pitcher rankings.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Corey Seager2 hours ago

Leaves Early On Tuesday With Hamstring Tightness
George Klassen3 hours ago

Strikes Out Nine In Latest Double-A Start
Michael Pittman Jr.3 hours ago

Back Injury Is In The Past
Marcelo Mayer3 hours ago

With Fourth Straight Multi-Hit Effort On Tuesday
Bailey Falter3 hours ago

Leaves Outing On Tuesday With Back Tightness
George Pickens3 hours ago

Steelers Appear Unlikely To Trade George Pickens
Jaylen Warren3 hours ago

Steelers Believe Jaylen Warren Can Be Their RB1
Leodalis De Vries3 hours ago

Hits For Cycle, Collects Eight RBI On Tuesday
Jeferson Quero4 hours ago

To Resume Baseball Activities
Andrew Novak4 hours ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Roman Anthony4 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Soreness
Ben Griffin5 hours ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Nick Pivetta5 hours ago

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Brandon Marsh5 hours ago

Nearing Rehab Assignment
Mitchell Parker6 hours ago

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings
Javier Assad6 hours ago

Exits Rehab Start With Injury
Pablo López6 hours ago

Pablo Lopez Nearing Return
Cristopher Sánchez6 hours ago

Cristopher Sanchez Exits With Forearm Soreness
Jaylen Warren7 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Steelers
Luis Rengifo7 hours ago

Out After Having Root Canal
Tyler Matzek7 hours ago

Joins Big-League Roster
Chandler Simpson7 hours ago

Back In Leadoff Spot On Tuesday
Wade Miley8 hours ago

Starting His Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Sam Moll8 hours ago

Starting Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Tyler Stephenson8 hours ago

Starting Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Marcus Semien8 hours ago

Dropped To Five-Hole On Tuesday
Cody Poteet8 hours ago

Placed On 15-Day Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation
Will Levis8 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Traded
Houston Texans8 hours ago

Texans Considering Trading Up
Cleveland Browns8 hours ago

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah Appears At Offseason Program
Thomas Detry8 hours ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Christian McCaffrey9 hours ago

Has No Restrictions
Terry Rozier9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard9 hours ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum9 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Robert MacIntyre9 hours ago

Returns To Zurich Classic With High Hopes
Derek Forbort9 hours ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry9 hours ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Shane Lowry9 hours ago

Returning To Zurich Classic With Red-Hot Teammate
Luke Glendening9 hours ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee9 hours ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass10 hours ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon10 hours ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Luke Hughes10 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Matthew Tkachuk10 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Damian Lillard11 hours ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Brock Purdy12 hours ago

Reports For OTA's Amid Contract Discussions
George Kittle12 hours ago

Skips Start Of 49ers Offseason Program
Dallas Cowboys12 hours ago

Stephon Gilmore Spotted At Cowboys Facility On Tuesday
James Cook12 hours ago

Not At Start Of Voluntary OTAs
Kirk Cousins12 hours ago

Reports To Voluntary OTA's
Cam Ward12 hours ago

Titans Officially Staying Put At No. 1 Overall Pick, Expected To Select Cam Ward
13 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty's Tackle-Breaking Ability Sets Him Apart
13 hours ago

Jalen Milroe Not A Lock To Go In First Round
Denver Broncos14 hours ago

Broncos Willing To Trade Up In This Week's Draft
Indianapolis Colts14 hours ago

Colts Searching For A Tight End That Can Do It All
Daniel Jones14 hours ago

Colts Expect Both Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Help Them In 2025
14 hours ago

Giants High On Jaxson Dart
Rory McIlroy14 hours ago

Making Second Appearance At Zurich Classic
14 hours ago

Saints Not Expected To Take Shedeur Sanders
Nikola Jokić17 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
Kawhi Leonard17 hours ago

Leads Clippers To Game 2 Victory
Jalen Brunson17 hours ago

Leads All Scorers With 37 Points In Monday's Loss
Tobias Harris17 hours ago

Notches Double-Double In Game 2 Win
Cade Cunningham18 hours ago

Leads Pistons To Victory With 33 Points
Rob Dillingham18 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Maxi Kleber18 hours ago

Remains Out For Game 2
GG Jackson II18 hours ago

Available For Tuesday
Evan Bouchard18 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Assists In Postseason Opener
Connor McDavid18 hours ago

Racks Up Four Points In Losing Effort
Nick Taylor18 hours ago

Can Surprise Again In The Big Easy
Phillip Danault18 hours ago

Nets Two Goals In Game 1 Victory
Adam Hadwin18 hours ago

Expects To Contend At Zurich Classic
Mark Scheifele18 hours ago

Bags Two Points In Monday's Win
Alejandro Tosti18 hours ago

Could Get Hot Again In New Orleans
Lane Hutson19 hours ago

Posts Two Assists In Playoff Debut
Joe Highsmith19 hours ago

Struggling As New Orleans Approaches
Dylan Strome19 hours ago

Registers Three Assists In Overtime Win
Karl Vilips19 hours ago

Steps Up To Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Alex Ovechkin19 hours ago

Scores First Playoff Overtime Goal
Michael Thorbjornsen19 hours ago

Ready To Make Waves In New Orleans
Braden Schneider19 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Tom Hoge19 hours ago

Ready To Make Some Birdies In New Orleans
Billy Horschel19 hours ago

Has Game To Win Third Zurich Classic
Aaron Gordon1 day ago

Cleared For Action
Ousmane Dieng1 day ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Love1 day ago

Remains Away From Team
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Hurts Ankle Monday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Officially Listed As Questionable For Game 2
Isaiah Stewart1 day ago

Ruled Out For Game 2 Against Knicks
Trent Frederic1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Monday
Leon Draisaitl1 day ago

Returns To Oilers Lineup For Postseason Opener
Jake Walman1 day ago

Available For Game 1
Brett Kulak1 day ago

Ready To Play Monday
Aliaksei Protas1 day ago

Expected To Return During First-Round Series
Isaiah Stewart2 days ago

Iffy For Monday Night
Aaron Gordon2 days ago

Listed As Probable For Game 2
Jaylen Brown3 days ago

Not Expected To Be Limited On Sunday
Ryan Blaney6 days ago

Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF