RADIO
If you consume any sort of March Madness content, the first thing you'll hear is how good teams must be in KenPom. Or to be exact, how they rank in offensive and defensive efficiency. I'm going to touch on the handful of teams who actually can win the NCAA Tournament, but for the most part, those numbers don't mean much when it comes to game-by-game breakdowns. Here's an example:
Just six teams have a Champ in their 10 most similar efficiency profiles https://t.co/s1vwatwVpi pic.twitter.com/TorHILC06a
— Bart T🏀rvik (@totally_t_bomb) March 18, 2024
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When filling out my bracket, I prefer to revert to this advice: "Almost anyone can make the Final Four, only a select few can win the title."
Here, I'm going to break down every first-round matchup and pod with game-by-game and futures bets. The West Region is primed for chaos. On paper, North Carolina and Arizona are head and shoulders above the rest of the field. Three of the next four seeds are all offense no defense paper tigers while there are a few intriguing 8-12 seeds who can present matchup problems with any team in the region. This is my "region of chaos," and here's why.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Howard/Wagner
UNC advances. Let's move on.
Their resume is solid, their metrics look good, and they have a number of veteran players in the lineup. However, I would be quite wary of their second-round matchup, as either team can contain the Tar Heels' tempo and pose potential upsets.
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Michigan State (-1.5)
Speaking of UNC's second-round matchup, the almighty committee posted two bubble (or so we thought) teams head-to-head. Both teams are weirdly good on defense yet give up tons of shots from the outside. Mississippi State is anchored by Tolu Smith on the glass, while Sparty is led by sharpshooter Tyson Walker.
On paper, Mississippi State's flaw is their turnover issues, and it appears Tom Izzo's crew would be able to force some. Despite a good defensive rating, Michigan State has been quite hot and cold when it comes to forcing turnovers. On the plus side, the rise of freshman big man Xavier Booker might be just what they need to contain Tolu Smith. I'm going with Sparty in this toss-up contest, but I could see either team giving the Tar Heels a run for their money.
HELLO Xavier Booker 😳 pic.twitter.com/FXbMbYMgHe
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) March 14, 2024
No. 5 Saint Mary's (-4.5) vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon
This game reminds me of the Marble Scene in Squid Game. Having to choose between my children is an incredibly difficult task. Aside from the Havocs themselves, there has been no bigger Grand Canyon fan than myself this season. With back-to-back NCAA Tournament berths, they enter the 2024 bracket with one of the most dynamic guards on any roster.
Tyon Grant-Foster isn’t just one of the best mid-major guards, he’s one of the best in all of college hoops
— Dim Jonovan (@DrRoddy_) November 18, 2023
Tyon Grant-Foster has fought back from injury and earned every bit of success this season. The Kansas transfer pairs with Gabe McGlothan to pose a deadly wing combo. The Lopes point guard and former WAC Player of the Year, Jovan Blacksher Jr., is slowly returning to form after returning from a knee injury.
On the five-seed line, I was really looking forward to playing on this Saint Mary's team. They're excellent on the glass and have the No. 13 defensive team in the country. Amid injuries, they did falter in the non-conference, but entered March in one of the best forms around.
Tempo is the key in this game. The Gaels want to play as slow as humanly possible and will do their best to grind this game to a halt. Meanwhile, the Lopes prefer to play uptempo and are decent in the half-court given the shot-creating ability of their guards.
If Grand Canyon can get in front early, I think they'll be able to push the pace throughout and control transition. If it's a cold shooting night, Saint Mary's could frustrate the heck out of Bryce Drew's team and make this a long game for my Lopes. Grand Canyon might be a moneyline sprinkle for me. With either winner, I like their chances to make a Sweet 16 (and beyond).
No. 4 Alabama (-9.5) vs. No. 13 College of Charleston
Alabama is the true definition of a paper tiger. Their 112th-rated adjusted defensive efficiency is the worst of any single-digit seed and looks much worse when you take their raw defensive numbers. Don't get me wrong, Nate Oats' "rim and three" offensive style is very enjoyable, I just don't know how you can win close games without getting a single stop.
And, to be honest, I've mostly been right on this Bama team all year. I was on them at home against Auburn, but faded them twice against Florida and Kentucky, who pose a brutal matchup in transition and in the paint.
The NCAA Tournament is all about matchups after all, and this is a bad one for Charleston. Like Alabama, they also want to push the tempo with an even worse defense. This is the game with the highest first-round total, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the Tide finish in triple digits. Charleston struggled against FAU earlier in the season, who profiles similar with even worse athletes than Alabama. I'm hoping this number gets bet down some more and I can back the Tide under -10.
No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 New Mexico (-2.5)
New Mexico was criminally under-seeded. Winning the Mountain West tournament only landed them an 11-seed, meaning a single loss down the stretch might have left them out. Despite playing at a blazing tempo, this team is good on both ends of the floor. They crash the offensive glass, pressure the ball well, and could be a long shot national title contender with just a bit better three-point shooting. Three excellent guards paired with freshman forward JT Toppin are finally healthy and clicking.
New Mexico's JT Toppin emerges as one of the hidden gems of this draft class. Toppin impacts games with his athleticism, energy, rebounding, and defense.
He's also shooting 41% on jump shots and a respectable 36% from 3. On defense, he's averaging 1.9 blocks and 1.1 steals per… pic.twitter.com/fB9z4ox2yt
— Rafael Barlowe (@Barlowe500) March 15, 2024
Clemson is not an easy matchup, though. PJ Hall is a matchup nightmare surrounded by sharpshooters. They easily handled Boise State in November, a team who beat New Mexico twice in the regular season. To me, the key will be the Lobos' ability to pressure the ball and the Tigers' shooters.
You cannot give Clemson clean looks and expect to win, and New Mexico has the guards to give Joseph Girard III fits all game. The New Mexico Lobos are my pick to advance, and are quite possibly the best double-digit seed with a chance at the Final Four (wink wink).
No. 3 Baylor (-13.5) vs. No. 14 Colgate
Similar to Alabama, Baylor is an all-offense, no-defense type of team. This is strange because they have plenty of size and athleticism. Their key players just lack the will to consistently move their feet and force contested looks. They also need Langston Love to return to form and provide another scorer in the backcourt. Don't get me wrong, the Bears have an excellent coach and are talented at all levels. I'm just having a hard time getting over their consistent defensive lapses.
Also similarly to Alabama, they were rewarded with a matchup where there should be almost no issues scoring. Colgate consistently wins the Patriot League but gets demolished as a No. 13 or 14 seed because they simply cannot match the athleticism of high-major programs. Their three-point numbers are promising, but they don't have a great ability to force extra possessions, and I question how well they can get to the rim. Baylor should handily advance to a much more difficult second-round opponent.
No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Nevada (-1)
A fascinating game where I haven't quite made up my mind yet. DaRon Holmes II is the best player on the floor (as he is most nights), and the combination of Koby Brea and Nate Santos have shot the ball extremely well. Meanwhile, Nevada's Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear are a dynamic backcourt duo posing interesting matchups at nearly every position.
Both teams are efficient scorers but don't gain many extra possessions via turnovers or offensive rebounds, making this an incredibly even matchup. Due to the talent of Holmes, I'm likely taking the Flyers to advance in this true coin-flip game.
DARON HOLMES.
Dunk of the Year candidate in College Hoops?
pic.twitter.com/EM7lPV75Ml— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) January 7, 2024
No. 2 Arizona (-19.5) vs. No. 15 Long Beach State
Continuing the trend of "extremely bad 15 and 16 seeds this year," we now have Long Beach State stepping up to the plate. The Beach were so bad a few weeks ago, they actually fired their coach prior to the conference tournament.
In hilarious fashion, recently fired Dan Monson took his squad on a three-game streak to punch their ticket. Despite beating Michigan and USC, they are not a great basketball team. They struggle from behind the arc and should have a large disadvantage around the rim.
As for Arizona, I am not a believer. They played a rugged out-of-conference schedule and have numerous wins over tournament teams. However, I cannot get past their potentially erratic shooting. Much like Auburn, their metrics are phenomenal, making them one of the possible title winners. Also like Auburn, their guards, particularly Kylan Boswell, can shoot you out of a game in a hurry. Their fast-paced style should allow them to dominate LBSU, but starting in Round 2, I'm searching for a spot to fade the Cats.
Region Picks
I mentioned it earlier, but this is my region of chaos. Despite great metrics, UNC and Arizona are extremely "flappable" to me. The three, four, and six seeds are all great offensively but struggle on the defensive end. These are teams I'm looking to get out earlier rather than later.
That leaves us with the five-seeded Gaels and a bunch of mid-level seeds. As I mentioned, New Mexico has the potential to make a deep run despite a tough first-round game. I generally make two brackets for tourney pools, and currently have Saint Mary's in the Elite Eight in one and Grand Canyon in the other. Both playing New Mexico for the right to a Final Four berth and to cause anarchy in this tournament.
My current NCAA Tournament Bets:
Florida Atlantic ML (+114 DraftKings), risk 1u to win 1.14u
Texas A&M +3 (-110 DraftKings), risk 1u to win .91u
Drake ML (+105 DraftKings), risk 1u to win 1.05u
Alabama -9 (-110 Caesars) risk 1u to win .91u
YTD 132-108-2, +10.97u
New Mexico to make Final Four (+2500 BetMGM) risk .4u to win 10u
Futures: 0-2, -.6u
Follow me on X @DrRoddy_ or here for up-to-date bets
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