May 22, 2017

Jim Turvey's 2017 MLB waiver wire watch list for Week 8 of fantasy baseball. Potential sleepers and adds for 10-team, 12-team, 14-team and AL/NL-only leagues.

Welcome to Week 8 of The Watch List. We have had a few iterations already, but here’s a friendly reminder for those who forgot. Each week, we’ll be updating this list full of players who you maybe aren’t quite ready to pick up (depending on league size, of course), but who need to be on your radar regardless. We’ll look at several players in-depth each week and keep tabs on players “graduating” into the waiver wire pickups category, as well as players demoted off the list entirely. (Reminder, these are Yahoo ownership and positions.)

With the season beginning to stabilize a bit, there are simply fewer players graduating and being demoted each week. With that in mind, we’ll no longer have a set number of eight players highlighted each week, but rather somewhere in the five to eight range. However many players graduate/are demoted will be replaced and the new players will be highlighted with longer evaluations.

Once again, if there are any names who you’d like to see highlighted next week, or even just added to the list as a whole, feel free to at me on Twitter (@FantasyBaseTurv). Let’s get this show on the road.

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Players to Watch in 10-team Leagues

Koda Glover (Was, RP): 24% owned

This top-ranked spot was filled by a closer who lasted only one edition last week (Derek Law), but Glover should have a bit more staying power. Unlike Law, who was only taking the role from an injured closer who is returning sooner than later, Glover is the latest in a carousel of Nationals’ closer during a season in which no one player has grabbed hold of the role. Glover locked in his third save of the season on Sunday, getting the final four outs of a 3-2 victory over Atlanta. Glover has the best stuff of any of the potential Nationals’ closers, and he has just about the best numbers. His 2.77 ERA ranks second to just Matt Albers among the five different Nationals to record a save in 2017, and his 1.97 FIP is by far the best. Glover isn’t sporting the flashiest strikeout rate right now (6.92 K/9), but if you look at his minor league numbers, there is clearly potential for more strikeouts on the horizon. Glover has impressive control for a 24-year-old, walking just two batters all season so far, and while the Nationals may still make a move for their long-term closer, Glover appears the most likely to be the man in the ninth for the time being.

Domingo Santana (Mil, OF): 27% owned

Santana had another nice week, hitting .364 with an .849 OPS and nine RuBIns. Santana has slashed .373/.462/.552 over the past 20 games and has become a five-category contributor in 2017.

Zack Wheeler (NYM, SP): 36% owned

Wheeler made two starts in the past week, tallying 11 strikeouts in 11 innings, and he grabbed a quality start in the first outing and a win in the second outing. Wheeler has brought his ERA (3.74) down significantly in the past month, and he should be about that same pitcher (4.22 FIP, 4.05 xFIP) moving forwards.

Justin Bour (Mia, 1B): 20% owned

Bour was one of my favorites before the season, and while it took a minute, he is beginning to show flashes of what was thought possible of him before the season. Bour hit four homers in the past week and has reached double-digit homers for the season (11). His slugging percentage is over .500 now and may well stay in that lofty range for the season.

Trevor Rosenthal (StL, RP): 38% owned

Seung-Hwan Oh blew another save last week, but so did Rosenthal, as the Cardinals’ flamethrower continues to sit just off the closer’s role. He is a long-term investment that may pay off in spades.

Dan Straily (Mia, SP): 22% owned

Straily is the perfect type of player to have on your watch list. On the heels of a 2016 season in which he either: A) outperformed his peripherals by some means unknown to baseball statistics, or B) got really lucky - he is doing it once again. In 2016, Straily went 14-8 for the Reds, finishing the season with an ERA of 3.76 but a FIP of 4.88 and xFIP of 5.02. Any fantasy baseball site that had any respect for the advanced metrics of the sport was saying he was a hard stay away. Now, in 2017, he has a 3.70 yet again, and while he is only 2-3, he hasn’t given up more than four runs since his first outing, and he has only given up four runs once. So what is his trick? It’s not entirely clear. While Straily is striking out more batters in 2017 (8.88 K/9), his hard hit contact rate (35.0 percent) is still not at a level where it would make sense for him to be beating his FIP yet again. The gap between his FIP (4.22)/xFIP (4.70) and ERA aren’t as massive as last season, but it is still there and suggests he may not stay below 4.00 with his ERA for much longer. Of course, fantasy owners have talked themselves out of Johnny Cueto and Marco Estrada for similar reasons in the past, and they have lived to rue those decisions. It still appears to be a run of good luck for Straily but keep an eye on him for nice matchups, or in case he just keeps doing this for another month or so.

Players to Watch in 12-team Leagues

JC Ramirez (LAA, SP/RP): 19% owned

Ramirez struck out only two in his lone start last week, but he finished seven innings for the third time in his past five starts and allowed only two runs in the no decision. He is a two-start pitcher this week, at Tampa Bay on Monday and at Miami on Saturday.

Logan Morrison (TB, 1B): 25% owned

Morrison is one of the most underrated options at first base in fantasy baseball right now. His "past calendar year" statistics put him in the second tier of first base options, while his ownership lags greatly behind. It’s not just a fluke this season, he’s proven so by this point, especially if we count the final months of 2016 as well.

Bradley Zimmer (Cle, OF): 21% owned

Zimmer made his MLB debut within the last week, and he has impressed, slashing .267/.389/.533 in 18 plate appearances so far. His eight strikeouts are somewhat high, but his three walks and two extra-base hits (one homer) help to mitigate those fears. Zimmer also stole a base in his first five games, and he offers borderline five-category skill if he can live up to his potential. The 24-year-old was slashing .294/.371/.532 in 33 games at Triple-A this season, with five home runs and nine steals. He has a nice batting eye and while the strikeouts should continue to be a bit high, if he can carve out consistent at bats in the Cleveland outfield (he has started all five games since his debut), he should have value in even shallower leagues. Abraham Almonte is expected to be out around a month, so Zimmer’s short-term value is nice and if he hits, he should stick around, seeing as he is their top prospect at the moment.

Mike Foltynewicz (Atl, SP): 14% owned

Foltynewicz is secretly one of the safer options in fantasy. He has given up more than three runs in only one start this season. He has a glorious pair of matchups this week: Pittsburgh at home on Monday and the San Francisco on the road on Saturday.

Tommy Joseph (Phi, 1B): 22% owned

Joseph, like Bour, was another preseason power darling who seems to be heating up with the weather. Last week saw another two long balls from Joseph which makes six homers in May after zero in April.

Austin Hedges (SD, C): 32% owned

Hedges’ ownership is so high strictly because of the position he plays. He is hitting just .215 (.272 OBP), but he has hit eight home runs and at just 24 years old, he offers some upside as well. Just know there will be warts with him.

Nate Karns (KC, SP): 33% owned

Karns slips in these rankings only because of a possible DL stint upcoming. He was removed after five, one-run innings on Friday. His numbers have been strong in 2017, but if he goes on the DL he’s not valuable enough to use a precious DL spot on in shallower leagues with the rate of DL stints this season.

Jarrod Dyson (Sea, OF): 20% owned

Dyson hit his first two homers of 2017 in the past week, and he stole two more bases, bringing him up to 12 thefts on the season. He is still drawing walks, avoiding strikeouts, and winning my heart (especially in OBP leagues).

Players to Watch in 14+ team Leagues

Jed Lowrie (Oak, 2B): 6% owned

After another successful week (two homers), I’m officially moving Lowrie up a tier, low ownership be damned. Just because others fail to recognize the success Lowrie is having this season (.278/.348/.451 at second base), doesn't mean you have to.

Derek Norris (TB, C): 3% owned

Norris has a .302 average with four homers since April 28 and is still hitting the snot out of the ball (29.6 percent line drive rate). He’s severely under-owned at this point.

Lonnie Chisenhall (Cle, OF): 5% owned

Chisenhall demanded a spot on this list with a four-homer week, but it will be interesting to see how long he can stick around. The 28-year-old has been in-and-out of the majors since 2011, and while he has posted a wRC+ of 100 during that time, he has never managed to fully stick with the big-league club. He had his best season in 2014 when he hit .280 with 13 homers and over 120 RuBIns. Of course the next season he hit .246 with just seven homers and spent 40 games at Triple-A. So far this season, Chisenhall is hitting the ball harder than he has in any season past (31.9 percent hard hit ball rate), and he seems to be elevating his swing (50.0 percent fly ball rate in 2017 is ten percent higher than career rate), so maybe this production will stick around, but I’d like to see a few more weeks of it first before I’m buying Chisenhall stock.

Jordan Montgomery (NYY, SP): 11% owned

Montgomery is moving down a few spots due to nine runs in his last two starts combined. The Yankees rookie is still getting strikeouts (8.47 K/9), but looks like he might settle into the 4.20 ERA-type tier instead of the 3.80 ERA-type tier.

Ariel Miranda (Sea, SP): 10% owned

Miranda has been on fire of late, striking out 17 while allowing just two runs in his last two starts, a pair of no decisions. Of course, the start before that was an eight-run implosion that is the type of start that can wreck a week on its own. It’s not as if Miranda is predictable either, as his two dominant starts came against crummy offenses (Blue Jays and White Sox), but so was his blow up (Phillies). Miranda has three starts in which he went at least seven innings with two or fewer runs, but he also has a pair of starts in which he failed to make it out of the fourth. His next start is scheduled to be against the beastly Nationals in Washington, so you wouldn’t want him there anyways, so sit back and watch to see if he can get a bit more consistent in the near-future.

Cameron Rupp (Phi, C): 13% owned

Rupp hit another home run last week, but he’s still not getting full-time catcher at bats in Philadelphia for whatever reason. That’s the main thing hamstringing his value right now, it’s certainly not his 109 wRC+ from behind the dish.

Players to Watch in AL or NL-Only Leagues

Colby Rasmus (TB, OF): 2% owned

Rasmus calmed down a bit after a scorching return from the DL. He still hit one home run last week, but he hit just .200 with a .588 OPS. He’s still worth keeping an eye on.

Joe Biagini (Tor, SP): 13% owned

Biagini had his worst start since his transition from the bullpen, giving up six runs (five earned) over four innings against the Atlanta Braves. All the damage was done in the first inning before he settled in, but another start or two like that and Biagini might be back in the pen.

Tommy Pham (StL, OF): 10% owned

My Pham hype may have been a bit too hot the past few weeks, but this is still a player with an electric 40.4 percent hard hit ball rate who has the potential to be a 20/20 guy in a solid Cardinals’ lineup.

Graduated - Ownership Too High

Jose Berrios (Min, SP): 71% owned

Demoted

Ezequiel Carrera (Tor, OF): 2% owned

T.J. Rivera (NYM, 1B/2B/3B): 4% owned

Derek Law (SF, RP): 27% owned

Taylor Motter (Sea, SS/OF): 9% owned

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