RADIO
Well, last week's bust broke the trend of having a quarterback totally destroy my thinking, as Philip Rivers ended up being very good but not, like, astronomically so like when I predicted a Week 1 bust by Patrick Mahomes and a Week 2 bust by Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Anyway, y'all -- it's already Week 4. For 30 of the NFL's teams, their season will be 25 percent over after this weekend. Football: it comes back, but then it pretty much goes away again before you realize it.
Below are 10 lineup busts and avoids for Week 4 of NFL action.
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Top 10 Busts - NFL Week 4
Derek Carr (QB, Oakland Raiders)
The Browns defense has been quietly solid this season, holding two of the three quarterbacks they've faced to under 10 fantasy points. I don't see much of a path for Carr to startable status this week except in desperate situations (like, say, you have Cam Newton on a bye in a 14-team league, have Carr as your backup, and are staring at an empty waiver wire). With two touchdowns and five picks on the season, Carr already isn't producing the counting stats that fantasy owners need. I'm not trusting him against the Browns.
Blake Bortles (QB, Jacksonville Jaguars)
Two things are going against Bortles this week. The first one is probably less of an actual issue and more of an example of recency bias, but Bortles put up such a poor performance against the Titans last week, reminding fantasy owners of what Bortles looks like when he's at his worst, which is not good. The other thing is that Jacksonville plays a Jets defense that has had some good moments against quarterbacks, including a Week 1 game against the Lions where Matthew Stafford was picked off four times.
Peyton Barber (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
*Yawn*
The NFL's Next Gen stats list Barber as one of the least-efficient running backs in the NFL this season. He's also seen a decrease in snap percentage each week, a decrease in carries each week, and he faces the most difficult defense for fantasy running backs this season in the Bears. Stay away. Stay far away.
Derrick Henry (RB, Tennessee Titans)
Speaking of bad matchups, the Titans play the Eagles this week. Henry's been unable to find the end zone, has zero value in the passing game since Tennessee has Dion Lewis, and gets to play the defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. He's currently 59th in yards per touch and is running against stacked fronts a higher percentage of the time than any other back. Not a great look this week.
Javorius Allen (RB, Baltimore Ravens)
Good old Buck Allen has carved out a nice role with the Ravens this season, but this week's matchup with the Steelers could be his undoing. Allen already has 13 receptions on the year, which is more than the Steelers have allowed to all running backs combined through three games. Allen seems like a touchdown-or-bust play in Week 4.
The Detroit Lions Wide Receivers
The Cowboys are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers so far, though they did allow a pair of touchdowns last week. All three of Detroit's receivers -- Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr., and Kenny Golladay -- worry me to different degrees. Jones worries me the most as he's recorded a trio of four-reception games, but I could also see Golladay struggling to make plays deep. I'd guess that Tate has the most upside this weekend, but I can see each receiver finishing with lower numbers than fantasy owners are used to.
The New York Jets Wide Receivers
Another "one size fits all" option here, the Jets have a group of wide receivers who don't strike much fear in opponents and they get a tough, tough matchup against the Jaguars defense this week. Jalen Ramsey. A.J. Bouye. This could get ugly for New York. Quincy Enunwa, Robby Anderson, and Jermaine Kearse are all options that I have no faith in this week.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Arizona Cardinals)
There's just too much uncertainty this week with Josh Rosen making his first start. The Seahawks defense hasn't been world-beaters this season, but the defensive backfield, formerly known as the "Legion of Boom", still has some good pieces and has limited opposing receivers this year. Rookie Christian Kirk has also seen an increase in snaps and targets, while Fitzgerald has also had hamstring issues. Maybe Rosen gets Fitz back on track at some point, but I don't feel confident that this is the week it happens.
George Kittle (TE, San Francisco 49ers)
I'm not as low on Kittle's outlook post-Jimmy Garoppolo as other people might be, but the Chargers defense hasn't allowed a touchdown to a tight end yet. I understand that in deeper leagues you might be forced to play Kittle, but if you have other options then you should consider avoiding the situation until we see how Kittle and C.J. Beathard look together. I know they spent time working together last season and in college at Iowa, but Kittle only really had one good game in the pre-Jimmy G days last year.
Jared Cook (TE, Oakland Raiders)
The Browns haven't allowed a score by a tight end yet. Cook has seen just nine targets over the past two games after his 12-target Week 1 got fantasy owners excited about his potential in Jon Gruden's offense. He's seen his air yards decrease each week, dropping down to just eight of them in Week 3. It's difficult to be effective if the ball is being thrown to you so close to the line of scrimmage. With his usage trending in a negative direction and a bad matchup this week, you should worry about Cook.
