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Expert Week 3 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD prop. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
Week 3’s Sunday Slate is here. If you are a fan of a 0-2 team, you may be starting to sweat, knowing that almost 90% of teams that start 0-2 don’t end up making the playoffs. Bettors experiencing similar slow starts shouldn’t panic, however. As the weeks progress and our sample size of data increases, there will be plenty of opportunities to take advantage of usage patterns and turn things around.
Last week, our Anytime TD column had two hits in Javonte Williams and Juwan Johnson, putting our Week 2 picks in the black at +0.8 units (1-unit bets). With two weeks of data in the books, we’ll look to build on those wins with more accurate touchdown picks this week.
This column looks to pinpoint positive expected value using a model that factors in usage rates, red zone opportunities, and match-up tendencies. The end product is a probability projection that helps to highlight the touchdown edge. Results will be tracked week-over-week using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Picks
Chase Brown, RB - Cincinnati Bengals (-125)
The Joe Burrow injury is another heartbreaker for Bengals fans, and while it does bring a slight downgrade to Cincinnati’s other offensive studs, it is far from a death sentence. Tee Higgins, for instance, saw a spike in his touchdown rate, including scoring touchdowns in four of his five full games with Browning in 2023.
Against a stout Minnesota Vikings pass defense, however, the opportunity lies with RB Chase Brown. The third-year rusher is the only running back to register a carry for the Bengals so far this season, including 7 red zone attempts in two games. The Vikings have given up the third most rushing yards and the eighth most fantasy points to opposing running backs through two games.
Brown also leads the league in attempts inside the five-yard line. At his current DraftKings Sportsbook odds, he has an implied touchdown probability of just over 50%. Given his workhorse status with a replacement quarterback under center against a run funnel defense, he is a great volume-based Anytime TD play on Sunday.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB - Jacksonville Jaguars (+115)
The Jaguars' running back room has received an unusual amount of attention in fantasy and betting circles to start the season, including a healthy cloud of doubt around Etienne Jr.’s status as lead back. He has done everything in his power to silence the noise in two games, collecting 30 carries and 214 rushing yards alongside five catches and a receiving touchdown.
Tank Bigsby is no longer around to vulture goal-line carries, and while rookie Bhayshul Tuten has gotten attention, particularly in the passing game, Etienne Jr. is the clear RB1 in this offense for the time being. The fourth year back has tallied nine red zone carries, fourth in the NFL.
The Jags travel to Houston to take on the Texans on Sunday. Houston ranks 11th-worst in rushing yards against. With early-season struggles plaguing QB Trevor Lawrence, HC Liam Cohen could continue to lean on Etienne in the red zone in Week 3.
Drake London, WR - Atlanta Falcons (+130)
London is a great bet to find the end zone for the first time this season in a divisional matchup with the Panthers on Sunday. The fourth-year receiver is averaging 9.5 targets from QB Michael Penix Jr to start the year, picking up right where he left off last season when he finished with career highs across the board.
London also seems to always bring his best against Carolina; last year he tallied 261 yards and three touchdowns in two games against the Panthers. While Carolina’s pass defense looks healthy on paper (10th-fewest passing yards given up), their pass defense metrics have largely been a factor of falling behind early in games and being forced to stop the run. Carolina’s defense has faced the 13th-most rushing attempts compared to the 8th-least attempts through the air.
The Falcons don’t project to run away with this game and should aim to get London involved early. He has a higher likelihood to score than his 43% implied probability would suggest.
George Pickens, WR - Dallas Cowboys (+135)
Pickens has had a serviceable start to his tenure with the Cowboys, tallying 13 targets, eight catches, and 98 yards with one touchdown in his two starts.
What is most promising has been his touchdown-worthy targets. The 24-year-old has six red zone targets in two games (tied for sixth best in the NFL), with five of those being end zone targets, the most valuable of them all. He is tied with Davante Adams for the league lead in that category.
Pickens has a lucrative matchup against the Bears this week. PFF projects a heavy advantage for him on the outside in this contest with star CB Jaylon Johnson possibly out for the season. The Bears are the second-best matchup for opposing receivers this week per PFF. Chicago’s pass defense ranks third-worst in EPA. They have given up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL with seven, and are also league-worst in total points allowed with 79.
Happy George Pickens Week to all who celebrate. pic.twitter.com/Q2vQfKQNhL
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 17, 2025
With over 57% of his team’s red zone targets through two games, Pickens is the top option for Dak Prescott inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Look for that to translate into another touchdown this weekend.
Puka Nacua, WR - Los Angeles Rams (+145)
Nacua has had an extremely strong start to the 2025 campaign, tallying 20 touches and 266 total yards in two games. His first touchdown of the year came on a highlight reel 45-yard rush, his second rushing attempt of the young season.
The second-year receiver leads the NFL with 18 receptions entering Week 3. This week, he gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. His projected matchups opposite Adoree’ Jackson and Quinyon Mitchell give Nacua PFF’s top matchup advantage rating among 104 eligible receivers this week.
As the focal point of the Rams' passing attack, Nacua has a great chance of reaching pay dirt any week. His matchup in Week 3 increases those odds significantly.
Tucker Kraft, TE - Green Bay Packers (+190)
Kraft has had an excellent start to the season, catching eight passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns in games against the Lions and Commanders. Through two games, he has emerged as a top red zone target for QB Jordan Love, tallying three red zone catches and two end zone targets already (tied for first among all TEs).
The Packers face off against the Browns this week, a pass-funnel defense that gives up a league-low 2.07 yards per rushing attempt. While Green Bay has been relying on Josh Jacobs more heavily in the red zone so far (11 red zone carries thus far), a stingy Cleveland front may force Love to take advantage over the middle with Kraft.
Kraft popped up on the injury report with a knee injury that should be monitored into the weekend. If he goes, though, he is a great bet. Despite two straight games with a touchdown, Kraft’s Anytime TD line is still showing great value at +190. I have this line closer to +140.
Note: If Kraft does miss Sunday's game, then consider the Packers' other tight end, Luke Musgrave, or even receiver Romeo Doubs as other options who would benefit from Kraft's absence.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Pick
Malik Nabers, WR - New York Giants (+900)
Nabers erupted last Sunday in the game of the week against the Cowboys, catching nine balls for 167 yards and two touchdowns. Russell Wilson found his footing during that game, resulting in him topping the NFL passing yardage leaderboard after two games.
Nabers is tied for second in the NFL in red zone targets entering Week 3 with seven. While he has only caught three of those, I would expect that rate to increase as his rapport with Wilson grows.
The Giants face off against the Chiefs on Sunday, who have allowed the 27th-highest completion percentage through two weeks. Look for Brian Dabboll to script multiple touches for Nabers on the Giants’ opening drive this weekend, giving the second-year stud a great chance at scoring first. He is an excellent Anytime TD pick as well at +140.
