Week 16 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2020 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

December 27, 2020

Eric Samulski breaks down all 2020 fantasy football Week 16 defenses (DEF) -- streamers, sits/starts, and D/ST waiver wire pickups to add. His Week 16 rankings and tiers for all of the NFL defenses.

Oooh, baby! We tied our best week of the season at just the right time. I'm not going to lie, I had assumed Pittsburgh would deliver last night and make it eight out of ten, but they and the Rams really let us down this week. Hopefully, the rest of the rankings helped some of you make it to the big game. Unfortunately for me, I paired Keenan Allen and Mike Davis with one of the top-10 defenses that didn't hit (San Francisco) and lost my match-up after a first-place regular season. Sometimes those are just the breaks.

On the bright side, we've made it to the final week of the (real) fantasy football season. Many of you are coming here, hoping to get some insight to get you over the finish line with a title, and I promise we'll do whatever we can to make that happen.

The first piece of advice I was to reiterate before we move into this week's rankings is to always trust a good defense over a good match-up. We discussed that at length two weeks ago when the Bears laid an egg against the Lions, and I bring it up now because everybody was talking themselves into playing the Titans against those same Lions despite Tennessee having a bad fantasy defense. At the end of the day, the Titans finished with six points and outside of the top-10. Yes, the Rams also fell on their face in spectacular fashion against the Jets, but it still always a better play to roll with the better overall defense and not simply the best matchup. If you can get a combination of both, well, that's where the magic happens.

Picking The Right Defenses

When choosing a defense, you want to be looking for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points.  If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.

Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. NFL offenses have gained 357.4 yards per game and scored 11,048 points or 24.8 points per game so far this season, which, despite coming back to earth a little bit early in December, is back on the rise again and the most through the first 15 weeks of any season in the Super Bowl era.

With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.

We can also identify the offenses that we want to attack based on current performance. Injuries can always change this, but, for right now, defenses going up against the Cowboys, Jets, Broncos, Lions, Bengals, Giants, and Washington Football team have scored considerably more points on average than defenses facing other offenses. As I mentioned above, attacking these teams doesn't always work, and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams; however, it is a key factor to keep in mind when making your decision.

Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.

Week 16 Defenses To Start & Stream: Tiers & Rankings

These rankings will be adjusted throughout the week to take into account weather and injuries.

Below are my Week 16 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 16 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver wire pickups to improve your lineups, and to decide which defenses to start, sit, target, avoid or stream for Week 16. I've broken out our defense rankings into tiers with analysis on each matchup. Some of these Week 16 defenses have good matchups and are not widely-owned, representing fantasy scoring opportunities if they are available on your league's waiver wire for a Week 16 pickup or add.

Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating, which Bill Dubiel started last year, is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of a straight point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. I take a lot of factors into account: opponent injuries, home-field advantage, weather (which will be updated during the week), etc. We still have only one game of in-season data to work with, so this week's rankings weigh schedule and personnel heavier than they will down the line.

Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues and Tier 5 being desperation plays or above-average defenses in horrendous matchups.

Tier 1 Defenses

I know the Jets won on Sunday, but I'm not expecting a repeat performance next week. This is still a historically bad offense that allows the most fantasy points on average to opposing defenses going up against a defense that is 12th in sacks and 6th in defensive possessions ending in an offensive turnover. Considering the Jets are 20th in offensive drives ending in a turnover and 27th in sacks allowed, there is a multitude of ways that the Browns can earn fantasy points on defense while not having to worry about the Jets putting up too many points. I think the Jets shot their shot on Sunday, and I don't expect this game to be particularly close.

With the Giants losing on Sunday night, they are all but eliminated from playoff contention. In that case, it's hard to see them rushing Daniel Jones back behind an offensive line that is 28th in sacks allowed in time to face a Ravens defense that is 2nd in pressure rate. The Ravens haven't been nearly as ferocious on defense as they have been in years past, which is why I don't have them in the top spot, but they are still 6th in yards per play allowed and 4th in percentage of drives ending in an offensive score. The Colt McCoy-led Giants are not a threat to put up many points, and the Ravens should take advantage of that offensive line to earn enough fantasy points to led some teams to championships.

The Bills defense appears to be back. Now that they are fully healthy, this has the look of a unit that more closely resembles the one that dragged the Bills to the playoffs last year. They are 13th in sacks, 2nd in pass rush win rate, and 4th in defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover. That last stat is most important since the Patriots are 24th in offensive drives that end in a turnover. New England is likely to try and slow this game down and grind it out on the ground, but they haven't scored a touchdown in their last two games, only totaling 15 points in those games combined. I don't expect the Bills to let up just because they won the AFC East. They are playing for playoff seeding and want to establish their control over the division on national television.

The Cowboys offense may have put up a good fight against the 49ers, but this Eagles defense is another animal. They are 13th in pass rush win rate, 2nd in sacks, and 5th in pressure rate. That is terrible news for a Cowboys offensive line that is 22nd in sacks allowed. The Eagles should be in Andy Dalton's face all game long, which will lead to a handful of sacks and also a few turnovers since the Cowboys are also 31st in percentage of offensive drives that end in a turnover. Tony Pollard had an impressive stat-line for Dallas last week, but he also averaged 2.4 yards per carry before breaking off a 40-yard touchdown run in garbage time. The Eagles run defense is just as tough as San Fransico's, so don't expect a game-breaking performance from Pollard or Ezekiel Elliott, if he plays. I know the Cowboys still have a shot at the postseason, but I just don't see any way they can contain this Eagles defense. Even if they manage to score enough points to keep this game close, the Eagles should have enough sacks and turnovers to make for a tremendous fantasy start.

Tier 2 Defenses

I would assume the 49ers' loss to Washington all but assures us that we won't see Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, or George Kittle this season. With the 49ers standing little chance of making the postseason, I would imagine Kyle Shanahan decides to keep those key players healthy heading into the offseason. With more Nick Mullens under center, the Cardinals are in a great spot. This Mullen-led offense allowed the decidedly average Cowboys Defense to finish as the number one unit this past week and will now face a Cardinals defense that is 4th in pressure rate, 5th in sacks, and 13th in percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive score. Considering the 49ers are 19th in sacks allowed and 30th in offensive drives that end in a turnover, I can see them giving this Cardinals defense a number of chances to earn fantasy points.

The Saints may have lost on Sunday, but they were in Patrick Mahomes' face all game long. They were only able to bring him down four times, but that undersells just how well the unit played. Putting up a top-10 defensive performance (more likely 11th after tonight) against the Chiefs is an incredibly rare feat. But the Saints have been strong ever since about Week 4; they are 8th in pressure rate, 6th in sacks, and 9th in turnovers. They now get a Vikings offense that is 21st in sacks allowed and 26th in offensive drives that end in a turnover. All of which is part of the reason the Vikings allow opposing defenses to finish with the 8th-most fantasy points per game and are why I think the Saints are a strong top-10 unit this week.

I know the Rams laid an egg against the Jets, but we can't give into one-game sample sizes with championships on the line. The Rams have been an elite defense all season long, including being the number one defense over the last six weeks, and the Seahawks' offense was far more dangerous when they were letting Russell Wilson cook. Now that they have renewed their dedication to the run game, they've scored only 14 touchdowns in the last six games, so just over two per game. They are no longer an offense that we need to fear when deciding on a defense to play. When you pair those scoring numbers with an offensive line that is 27th in sacks allowed, it makes the Rams all that more attractive as a back-end top-10 option. They are 9th in pass rush win rate, 3rd in sacks, and 9th in defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover. The Seahawks are going to score points, but I expect the Rams to come out hungry after spending a week being the butt of a joke.

This ranking comes down to turnovers. The Dolphins are best in the league in the rate of defensive possessions that end in an offensive turnover, and the Raiders are 27th in offensive drives that end in a turnover. The Raiders are middle of the pack in sacks allowed, and the Dolphins are middle of the pack in pass rush win rate, but they are also 11th in sacks and 9th in pressure rate, so I tend to favor the Dolphins defense over the Raiders offense in this matchup and think they are top-10 unit this week. I mean, they are the 3rd-ranked defense over the last six weeks. If Marcus Mariota winds up playing, I think you could likely move the Dolphins up a few more spots.

Tier 3 Defenses

The Bucs had a couple down weeks as a defense, but this is still a strong unit. They are 3rd in pressure rate, 4th in sacks, 6th in pass rush win rate, and 8th in defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover. They will now be playing for playoff seeding against a Lions offense that is 25th in sacks allowed and 17th in both yards gained per play and percentage of offensive drives that end in a turnover. We mentioned that the Lions are an offense that we want to attack, but the Bucs are actually a strong enough defense to really take advantage of the matchup. It's all but assured Kenny Golladay is out for the season, and while D'Andre Swift is back, the Bucs are the best run defense in the league, so I don't think they will have too much of a challenge in forcing the ball into the hand of an injured Matthew Stafford and keeping the Lions from putting up many points.

The Colts are a solid defense, coming in tied for 6th over the last six weeks. I have some slight concern because they don't get after the passer consistently, ranking 22nd in pass rush win rate, 14th in sacks, and 15th in pressure rate. They are also 22nd in average yards allowed per pass, which should theoretically be a problem against a Pittsburgh passing attack that is deep and quick-hitting. However, Pittsburgh has looked so bad the past two weeks that it's hard to know what to expect. The Colts are well-coached, and I think Frank Reich will have them ready to capitalize on the Steelers' tailspin, but the offensive problems in Pittsburgh have also hurt the defense, which scored only four points against the Bengals last night. It's now looking like it's hard to trust Pittsburgh against a Colts offense that doesn't allow sacks and rarely turns the ball over.

The Denver Broncos allow the 3rd-most points on average to opposing defenses, and we saw why on Saturday afternoon. Even though he shows flashes of talent, Drew Lock also has a propensity for turning the ball over. The Broncos are dead last in the percentage of offensive drives that end in a turnover, so they are always going to give an opposing defense a chance to make a play. I'd love to have the Chargers higher, but they are simply too beat up. They are 19th in pass rush win rate, 23rd in defensive drives that end in a turnover, and 14th in pressure rate. This unit isn't as bad as Tennessee's, so I think they can ride Joey Bosa enough to force a few turnovers and get into the top-10, but I don't see this as a smash spot given their ineffectiveness for much of the season.

It's time we talk about Washington as an elite defensive unit. They are 5th in pass rush win rate, 10th in pressure rate, 7th in sacks, and 4th in yards per play allowed. So, even though Carolina isn't a team you usually want to target, there is really only so far you can drop Washington's defense. If you're looking for another vote of confidence, the Panthers are 14th in sacks allowed and just gave up three sacks to a Packers team that is 22nd in pressure rate. I expect Chase Young and company to get home a few times themselves this week.

I know everybody will have the Bears higher because they are facing a Jaguars team that will likely be without James Robinson. However, we made this mistake a couple of weeks ago when the Bears faced a Lions team without Golladay and Swift, and they still couldn't finish as a top-15 defense. The Bears are 28th in defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover, 16th sacks, and 26th in both pass rush win rate and pressure rate. In short, they are not a strong fantasy unit. Plus, we have all seen Gardner Minshew chuck the ball around the field on the way to multiple touchdown days. This Jaguars offense is feisty and only allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. That's not strong, but it's also not a doormat, and I wouldn't stake my championship on playing the Bears against Minshew, who is likely playing for a starting job in the NFL (on another team, obviously).

Yes, the Patriots have been a shell of themselves this season, but it's still Bill Belichick on Monday Night Football against the Bills. He is going to have this team ready. On the season, the Patriots are 2nd in pressure rate and 5th in defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover, so they are not a pushover and can take advantage of a Bills offense that is 21st in offensive drives that end in a turnover. Earlier this season, Josh Allen went 11-18 for 154 with zero passing touchdowns and one interception against this Patriots defense, and they've had his number during his three years in Buffalo. A strong showing against them would be an exorcism of sorts for the Bills quarterback, but I don't think it's going to be easy.

Tier 4 Defenses

I know people are going to be all over the Texans defense against this Bengals offense, but I want to offer a word of caution. The Texans are 32nd in percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover, 23rd in pressure rate, 18th in sacks, and 21st in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score. They have a great matchup, but they are a bad fantasy defense. I wouldn't feel comfortable resting my championship hopes on their shoulders.

Tier 5 Defenses

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