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Holy guacamole, Batman, we’re almost halfway through the season! I hope those of you that could scoop Freddy Peralta and Shane Bieber after last week’s notes didn’t hesitate. We're back to name names, 10 in fact, and I hope we can satisfy those in shallower formats as well as the multitude who make me feel guilty over each player being owned already.
If you want to chat more about additional arms/bats/whatever, you can find me on Twitter @NMariano53 and ask any follow-up questions.
We're using Yahoo ownership levels and cutting things off around 30% this week. Here are my starting pitcher waiver wire targets for Week 13.
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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets
Ivan Nova (PIT - SP): 29% owned
Nova was battered over five May starts before hitting the DL, allowing 20 earned runs over just 23 ⅔ innings, but has risen from the ashes in June. Across 19 ⅔ IP, the 31-year-old righty has allowed two runs on 12 hits and five walks with 19 K's over his three starts. Never underestimate the power of getting a mental break from the action, especially when you’re in a funk. Not to mention that Nova’s not the overpowering type and really needs his command to be on point. Well, it’s on point now as he cruises toward a date with the Mets.
Joey Lucchesi (SD - SP): 28% owned
Lucchesi’s ownership continues to slowly decline despite a solid start against the Rangers on Monday. It was just his second start back from the DL as he spun four scoreless frames despite spotty command. He hit 70 pitches early and was promptly lifted, presumably not to tax him fresh off of injury. This should assuage some doubt after he only recorded five outs in his first start back as he heads toward July with a 3.57 ERA, 3.64 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA across 11 starts. I remain impressed and hope you’ll benefit from an impatient owner who just wants to see a clean win and big K’s, but I understand waiting until he throws more than 41-of-70 pitches for strikes.
Jonathan Loaisiga (NYY - SP): 24% owned
Rare is the pitcher who shows immunity to real volatility, and rarer still is the rookie pitcher who can make such a claim. Loaisiga was likely cast aside in several leagues after failing to go four innings on June 20 against Seattle, but he rebounded in a major way by taking a no-hitter into the sixth against Philly on Monday. He turned in a career-high eight strikeouts and now has 18 punchouts in 14 innings and has held opponents scoreless in two of his three starts.
The eight walks are rough but his Minor League profile shows excellent command, so perhaps it’s an intentional effort to work corners more against MLB competition? Regardless, he has a 1.93 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 2.71 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA alongside a 58.1% groundball rate in the (very) early going, so let’s see what else he can do before Masahiro Tanaka returns and likely forces Loaisiga out of the rotation. It’s possible German goes instead, but I doubt it at this point.
Marco Estrada (TOR - SP): 22% owned
Guess what? Estrada did keep it going against the Los Angeles Mike Trouts of Anaheim. Now with four consecutive quality starts under his belt, the soon-to-be 35-year-old righty looks like the arm who befuddled sabermetricians and was an original suppressor of hard contact. His 20.3% hard-hit rate in June is the lowest mark of any qualified starter (there are 91 of them) and the trade rumors are starting to rumble. Two things are immediately concerning, though. One is that his next game is against Houston. The second and bigger issue is that he’s gone on record saying that trade rumors have stressed him before and hurt his sleep cycle, which spiraled his stats into oblivion last season. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again.
Ervin Santana (MIN - SP): 16% owned
We’ve talked about Santana before and he’s had his rehab stall, but for now...he’s set for an outing at High-A on Saturday. He made it through a live bullpen session on Monday without any issues, so his finger has progressed since last he attempted this. He should be able to squeeze in 2-3 rehab appearances before the All-Star break is up.
Mike Minor (TEX - SP/RP): 8% owned
Minor had some preseason buzz going if he could keep his bullpen gains from 2017 going in Texas’ rotation. It hasn’t been that simple, but the 2009 seventh-overall pick has built up momentum with quality starts against Houston, Colorado and Minnesota in his last three starts for a 2.84 ERA in June. He’s kept the ball in the park his last two starts after giving up at least one in seven straight (10 total), though I hesitate to call that a turnaround. The best news I can give you here is that he owns a 3.94 ERA at home (6.82 ERA on the road) and faces the Padres -- a bottom-three offense -- at home next.
Dereck Rodriguez (SF - SP/RP): 7% owned
Rodriguez’s first appearance in the bigs was an iffy relief spot at Coors Field, but since then he’s posted three quality starts in five outings with a solid 24-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I’d be remiss not to say how he’s faced San Diego and Miami twice over his last three trips to the hill, but we’ve often seen favorable matchups go awry. I see the age-26 arm as capable of staying below a 4.00 ERA for you with an assist from spacious AT&T Park.
Nathan Eovaldi (TB - SP): 6% owned
Eovaldi eviscerated the Nationals with nine strikeouts and just one hit surrendered (with two walks) over six shutout innings. Joke all you want about the state of the Nationals, but this was a stellar performance all the same. The score also means Nasty Nate didn’t surrender a homer after yielding eight of them over his last four outings. He won’t ride a .178 BABIP forever, but he’s issued just five walks in 35 ⅓ IP and his 3.72 xFIP paints him as a useful deep-league arm.
Wilmer Font (TB - SP/RP): 1% owned
Rays manager Kevin Cash named Font as his starter on Thursday against the Astros (yikes) and has a spot in Tampa Bay’s fluid rotation. I actually drafted Font in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational and obviously, that didn’t go so well in LA (or Oakland). But since debuting for Tampa on May 30, Font has cobbled together a 1.64 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 22 innings (four “starts”), highlighted by his first victory on Saturday over the Yankees. His 4.11 FIP/4.85 xFIP over that span should be noted, but a weak 12.9% line-drive rate and 15.4% pop-up rate does help generate some luck. He’s started against the Yankees twice, the Mariners and the Blue Jays, so if he conquers the Astros then I’ll really want to dive in on the how’s and why’s.
Edwin Jackson (OAK - SP): 1% owned
Excuse me while I scroll down Jackson’s stats page...ahem...doo-doo-doo...ah, here we go. Pitching for his 13th team, Jackson tossed six innings of one-run ball in his A’s debut against the Tigers. He gave up six hits but walked none, though I wouldn’t get attached to that command given his career 9% walk rate. The Tigers are simply a good matchup for a right-handed pitcher and as a result, E-Jax now has another chance to prove himself on June 30 in a much tougher matchup against the Indians. Even at home, starting him there is ill-advised, but if he shines again then he’ll enter the streaming circle of trust.
