Week 11 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2020 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Week 10, more so than many others before it, showed us the value of playing against a bad offense (although, clearly, the Ravens didn't get the memo). Despite having mediocre defenses for fantasy purposes, teams like the Raiders, Packers, and Saints all finished inside the top-10, thanks to the lack of firepower from their opposition. Injuries and wind helped the Jaguars, 49ers, and Browns also slide in and the Bills and Rams proved, yet again, that you can still amass fantasy goodness even if you're facing a strong offense that will put points on the board.

So now we head into Week 11. Many leagues are three weeks away from the playoffs, so each matchup carries a little extra significance, and every roster move comes with a little extra anxiety. I'm here to help guide you through the choices I believe can help you win, but I urge you to read the strategy section directly below this and also the breakdowns for why I've ranked the defenses the way I have. While I will provide you with useful information, your gut may take that information and guide you in a different direction from mine. That's fine.

My hope is to give you the data and thought process to begin your internal reflection. At the end of the day, it's your team and you need to win or lose based on decisions that you believe in.

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Picking The Right Defenses

When choosing a defense, you want to be looking for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points.  If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.

Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. NFL offenses have scored 7,345 points or 25.2 points per game so far this season and allowed 361.2 yards per team per game, which is the most through the first ten weeks of any season in the Super Bowl era in either stat.

With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.

We can also identify the offenses that we want to attack based on current performance. Injuries can always change this, but, for right now, defenses going up against the Jets, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Bengals, and Washington Football team have scored considerably more points on average than defenses facing other offenses. Now, attacking these teams doesn't always work, and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams; however, it is a key factor to keep in mind when making your decision.

Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.

Week 11 Defenses To Start & Stream: Tiers & Rankings

These rankings are from before the Monday Night Football game and will be adjusted throughout the week to take into account weather and injuries.

Below are my Week 11 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver wire pickups to improve your lineups, and to decide which defenses to start, sit, target, avoid or stream for Week 11. I've broken out our defense rankings into tiers with analysis on each matchup. Some of these Week 11 defenses have good matchups and are not widely-owned, representing fantasy scoring opportunities if they are available on your league's waiver wire for a Week 11 pickup or add.

Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating, which Bill Dubiel started last year, is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of a straight point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. I take a lot of factors into account: opponent injuries, home-field advantage, weather (which will be updated during the week), etc. We still have only one game of in-season data to work with, so this week's rankings weigh schedule and personnel heavier than they will down the line.

Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues and Tier 5 being desperation plays or good defenses in horrendous matchups.

Tier 1 Defenses

While the Steelers didn't deliver the high-scoring performance I was hoping for against the Bengals, they finished as the 6th best defense of the week and now face a Jaguars team that allowed the Packers to finish as the 9th best defense in Week 10. For comparison sack, the Packers have 20 sacks on the season, and the Steelers have 36. Ther Packers have a 16.9% pressure rate, and the Steelers have a 32.8% pressure rate. The Packers blitz 22.6% of the time, and the Steelers blitz 36.9% of the time. The Packers have 7.5% of their defensive drives end in a turnover, and the Steelers have 16.9% of their defensive drives end in a turnover. In every way shape and form this Steelers' defense is superior to the Packers Defense, and I fully expect them to take advantage of a Jaguars offense that is 27th in sacks allowed, 22nd in drives ending in an offensive turnover, and 24th in drives ending in an offensive score.

The Chargers defense has underperformed this year. There is simply no sugarcoating that. They are 23rd in sacks, 12th in pressure rate, and 30th in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. Sure, they are 15th in yards per play allowed and 6th in quarterback hurry rate, but those numbers don't drive fantasy success. Fortunately for them, they are playing a historically bad Jets offense. With Sam Darnold unable to suit up for this game, this Jets offense is one to attack. They are dead last in offensive drives that end in points, 24th in sacks allowed, and dead last in yards per play. They simply can't move the ball down the field. While I don't expect the Chargers to force many turnovers, they should get in the backfield enough to notch a few sacks, which will tack onto a low point total to give them a solid day at the office, despite their mediocre fantasy performance to date.

The Raiders finished as the number one defense in fantasy in Week 10 despite being the 23rd ranked fantasy defense on the year thus far. The main reason for that was simply the weakness of the Denver Broncos' offense, which allows the third-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. I expect the Dolphins, who are currently the 4th ranked defense on the season, to take full advantage of that. The Broncos are 21st in sacks allowed, dead last in interceptions thrown (by four), 29th in offensive drives ending in a turnover, and 28th in offensive drives ending in a score. Those are bad metrics against an opportunistic Dolphins defense that is 6th in defensive drives ending in a turnover, 11th in sacks, and 3rd in blitz rate. They are going to bring pressure all game and, to make matters worse, the Broncos may be without Drew Lock. The Dolphins have allowed only 13 passing touchdowns all season, good for 6th in the league, so they are going to be a tough challenge for a back-up quarterback even if Tim Patrick isn't forced to miss time due to his ejection for throwing punches.

The Rams scored a big win against the Seahawks on Sunday, but that only covered up the fact that they were only able to pass for 283 yards against a historically bad secondary. On the season, the Rams are 26th in offensive drives ending in a score, 11th in yards per play, and 21st in offensive drives ending in a turnover. In fact, despite the Rams' reputation for being a high-powered offense, opposing fantasy defenses have an average finish of 11th against them. The Bucs are not an average defense. They're 3rd in pressure rate, 2nd in sacks, 4th in quarterback knockdown rate, and 7th in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. With Andrew Whitworth leaving Sunday's game with a knee injury, it's possible the Bucs pass rush can do even more damage against the Rams offensive line. While there is some concern about the Saints' offensive explosion and the Panthers scoring 23 points against Tamp Bay, the Bucs allowed only 187 total yards against Carolina while notching three sacks and an interception. I think they can put up a high-floor, back-end top-10 performance this weekend.

Tier 2 Defenses

The Vikings defense looked good on Monday night, holding the Bears to 149 total yards and only six points (since the Bears' lone touchdown came on special teams). The Vikings were able to sack Nick Foles twice and pick him off once, but this ranking is more about the Cowboys' beat-up offense. Even if Andy Dalton starts at quarterback for the Cowboys out of the bye week, he will play behind an offensive line that is 25th in sacks allowed and lead an offense that is 24th in yards per play and 25th in drives that end in a score. The Cowboys give up the 2nd-most points to fantasy defenses, so I don't see them putting enough points on the board to really hurt the floor of the Vikings' fantasy total. I think this defense can notch a few sacks to get them into the top 10.

Washington may not be an inspiring choice after a mediocre performance against the Lions, but this is a matchup they can take advantage of. Cincinnati gives up the 8th-most points to opposing defenses, is 17th in offensive drives ending in a turnover, and 31st in sacks allowed. Considering Washington is 10th pressure rate and 5th in sacks, I expect them to be able to get to Joe Burrow and disrupt his timing. With Washington also ranking 9th in offensive drives ending in points, they should be able to keep this game from getting out of hand. Then, the extra sacks and potential turnovers could easily support a top-10 defensive performance.

The Raiders are a solid offense, so this ranking may seem surprising, but it comes down to two things: the Chiefs are going to take advantage of the Raiders' defense, and the Raiders have had some fumbling issues this year. Let's tackle the first topic. Andy Reid is 18-3 off of a bye in his career as a head coach. He has the defending Super Bowl champions healthy and going up against a defense that is 30th in drives that end in an offensive score. The Chiefs are going to put up a lot of points in this game. That will force Derek Carr and the Raiders to play catch-up, and they simply don't have the pass-catching options to do that. I know they've done it before, but Las Vegas is 22nd in passing yards and 13th in TD% through the air, which are just not numbers that will consistently keep up with the Chiefs' offense. While Carr has only thrown two interceptions, and the Raiders are 11th in sacks allowed, the Chiefs are 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate, 2nd in quarterback knockdown percentage, 4th in quarterback hurry percentage, 4th in blitz rate, and 8th in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. With the Raiders having to pass often, the Chiefs are going to pin their ears back and come after Carr, which will lead to sacks and turnovers, especially if left tackle Kolton Miller continues to miss time or be hampered by an ankle injury.

The Browns used the wind to capitulate them to a top-10 finish against the Texans. Cleveland allowed only 243 yards but only sacked Watson twice. The Eagles allow the 6th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses and give up the most sacks in the NFL, but they are also starting to get healthy on the offensive line with Lane Johnson and Jason Peters coming back, which puts a little bit of a damper on our Browns love for this week. Adding to the damper, the Browns are 26th in pressure rate and 12th in sacks, so they lack the consistent pressure to really take advantage of this matchup. However, since the Eagles are 30th in the league in offensive drives ending in a turnover, the Browns have multiple paths to notching some fantasy points, so it's hard to remove the Browns from the backend of the top-10, but I can't move them up more with Myles Garrett out for this game.

Tier 3 Defenses

The Saints defense has come alive in the past three weeks, with three top-10 finishes and an average of 12.3 fantasy points per game, good for a tie for 1st in the league with Pittsburgh. If you look at the season totals, the Saints are only 15th in pressure rate, 9th in sacks, 12th in quarterback hurry rate, and 21st in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. Those numbers don't inspire a ton of confidence, but the recent performance does and, given the talent on the defensive side of the ball, it's not something we should ignore. Add to that a banged-up Calvin Ridley and a Falcons offense that is strong, but only 12th in yards per play and 16th in sacks allowed, and there is a path to the Saints finishing as a top-10 unit.

The Eagles laid an egg against the Giants. There's no way to get around that. They gave up 382 yards and couldn't stop Daniel Jones on the ground, which makes one pause when considering how they plan to stop Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on the ground on Sunday. However, the Eagles did notch three sacks, are 6th in the NFL in pressure rate, 3rd in the league in sacks, and 8th in the league in defensive drives ending in offensive points. Those numbers bode well against a Browns offense that is 24th in offensive drives ending in a turnover and 17th in drives ending in a score. When under pressure, Baker Mayfield has a 40% completion percentage and only has a 72.6% catchable pass rating, which is well below average. If the Browns want to keep Baker upright and prevent turnovers, they're going to need to rely heavily on the run game, which will slow the game down and allow them to run fewer plays overall. That will keep the Browns from putting up too many points against a strong defense that will be looking to make a statement coming off of a poor performance.

The Ravens defense really failed to show up against the Patriots on Sunday night, recording only one sack and no turnovers against a Patriots team that has been giving up a fair amount of both. The Titans aren't an easier task. They've only allowed 13 sacks on the season and are 2nd best in the league in offensive drives that end in a turnover; however, the Ravens defense has been too good all season to drop them too far, especially after the Titans just allowed an inferior Colts Defense to finish inside the top-5. The Ravens are 9th in pressure rate, 7th in sacks, and 1st in the league in blitz rate, so they will test a Titans offensive line that is without left tackle Taylor Lewan. UPDATE: With Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams not practicing this week, the Ravens defense gets dinged a bit before a match-up with Derrick Henry. 

This Patriots team may not be strong, but they damn sure played like it on Sunday night against the Ravens. Now, it may have been a team punching above its weight in a primetime game, but it's not an effort to ignore. They held the Ravens to 17 points on 357 total yards of offense while sacking Lamar Jackson twice and picking him off once. Considering the Texans are 26th in sacks allowed, we can expect the Patriots' sack number to climb even higher this weekend. Despite their offensive struggles, the Patriots are 11th in pressure rate, 5th in quarterback hurry rate, and 1st in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. Deshaun Watson is a dynamic playmaker, but he doesn't have much help around him. Stephon Gilmore is back and should be able to stay with Will Fuller, which will mean Brandin Cooks and Duke Johnson are the only viable paths to offensive production for the Texans, which makes me confident the Patriots can keep this one close. We also know the Patriots are going to run against the Texans' poor run defense, which will slow this game down, limiting possessions and points.

The Seahawks have a massive problem on the offensive line. After allowing five sacks in a loss to the Bills, they allowed six sacks in a loss on Sunday against the Rams. Things don't get much easier this week against a Cardinals team that is 10th in sacks but 7th in blitz rate and was in Josh Allen's face all afternoon. With the secondary now fully healthy (provided Dre Kirkpatrick recovers from getting banged up late in the game), the Cardinals can afford to send extra rushers and rely on the talent of Patrick Peterson and Budda Baker. If they can get Jordan Phillips back on Sunday, it gives them yet another weapon to collapse the pocket on Russell Wilson. We know he is dynamic, but the offensive line that is 29th in sacks allowed is causing problems that he can't fix. If the Seahawks were able to get Chris Carson back, it might change this ranking slightly, but he'll need to get in a few practices early in the week to feel confident about that.

The Rams are the 6th-best fantasy defense over the last four weeks and are coming off of an effort in which they limited an explosive Seahawks offense to 16 points on 333 yards of total offense while also registering six sacks. That moves them up to 4th in the league in sacks, which will be a true test for the Bucs offensive line, which is 12th in sacks allowed and needs to protect one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the league in Tom Brady. On the season, the Bucs allow an average defensive finish of 17th, which is solid, but perhaps not as dominant as we would expect out of a team with that many weapons. As the Rams showed on Sunday, a strong pass rush can change the course of a game, altering an offensive philosophy and stifling even the deadliest of attacks.

Houston has not been an inspiring defensive unit of late and the Patriots offense was able to keep the Ravens from being a top-10 unit, but this is still a good matchup for the Texans. The Patriots are 13th in sacks allowed, 20th in yards per play, 23rd in offensive drives that end in a score, and 31st in offensive drives that end in a turnover. It's simply not a good offense. Their inability to put up big point totals allow opposing fantasy defenses to operate with a high floor. That should help a Texans team that is 18th in sacks and 25th in drives ending in an offensive score. I don't expect them to put up a massive showing here, but they won't need to against this offense to finish in the top-15; they simply need to do what everybody else has done and allow the Patriots lack of skill position players to kill drives on its own.

Tier 4 Defenses

The Falcons become interesting with Drew Brees out. They're playing increasingly good defense and will either face Taysom Hill, who has been more gadget player than quarterback, or Jameis Winston, who has always been good at giving the ball away. They may wind up as more of a DFS play than season-long play though.

I know there is a tendency for many to want to move the Colts higher, but fantasy defenses going up against Green Bay are 32nd in points scored, so I just don't think you can confidently start them against Aaron Rodgers and company.

Tier 5 Defenses

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