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Michael Florio explains how to start the optimal lineup for Week 1 of fantasy baseball for hitters and pitchers to get an edge early in the season.
There was a time this winter where we did not know if or when we would get to say those words. There is just something about the start of the baseball season that makes you feel good! Spring is here, weather is getting nicer, and of course, there are games on all day long now to entertain us! But with baseball being back, it means you have to get those fantasy baseball lineups set!
Many people think setting the lineup for the first week of the season is easy - just start whoever you drafted highest. And while you should be started the bulk of the players you drafted, it gets a little more complicated when you are not talking about stud players but more so the players you took in the later rounds to fill out your draft. Of course, when you drafted also matters. If you drafted in February you will likely have to make more lineup changes than you will if you drafted this past week.
While the first couple weeks of the MLB season are best suited for being patient and picking up on playing time and lineup trends, playing a guessing game with no prior information in Week 1 could be a mistake. So before we kick back and enjoy the games, lets get those lineups ready!
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Setting the Optimal Week 1 Lineup for Hitters
When it comes to hitters, the old start your studs mantra holds up. ANy player that you drafted to be a weekly starter for your team should definitely be started to open the season. Where the lineup decisions come into play is when you are getting deeper with your hitters. Perhaps you waited to draft a middle infielder or last outfielder so you took two to give yourself options. That does not mean you simply have to start the one you drafted highest.
What you should be looking at is both the matchup and the projected playing time. If one of your hitters is a lefty that there has been rumblings that they could be in a platoon and there is a couple of lefties in the schedule this week, it is best to go with the other option. Plus, matchups certainly matter early on in the season, especially since teams can shorten their rotations with days off. For example, if you have a hitter facing the Brewers early on they could face Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff to start the season. It does not get tougher than that in terms of opposing rotations, so sitting non-stud hitters against these pitchers would be the way to go. It may only seem like a couple of games, but the goal is to get off to a hot start in fantasy rather than trying to dig yourself out from a slow start. Additionally, you can use weather as a tie breaker.
Look, I am no meteorologist, but there are certain cities that are more prone to postponements, especially early on. We have already seen a number of games pushed back due to inclement weather. I would not sit any players that you drafted highly cause of the weather, but if you are debating between two players and one plays in southern California or in a dome, they are a safer bet than say New York, Minnesota, Chicago, or more cities that are prone to cancellations early on. It is a guessing game, that's why it should only be left as a tie breaker, but any little edge can help.
Additionally, if you can make changes to your starting lineup on Monday, after opening weekend, then take advantage of that. Use the first weekend to monitor playing time and where your hitters are slotting in their lineup. We all think we know how those things will shake out, but the truth is we learn a lot in the early part of the MLB season. If you get a free sneak peak in the first few days of the season pay attention and take advantage.
Additionally, do not be afraid to take a gamble if there are players in uncertain playing time situations. For example, I had to decide between Jonathan Villar and Gavin Lux as my middle infielder in one league. I drafted Villar higher, but since playing time is a concern for both, I looked at the early matchups. Villar started off against the Brewers, while Lux gets significantly better matchups against the Rockies - but even more important he opens up in Coors Field. Perhaps I miss out on a stolen base or two from Villar, but the chance for a monstrous start from Lux was too tempting to pass up. Its fine to chase upside when debating between two fringy options in the opening week.
Lastly, do not be afraid to chase a hot spring. If a player put up big numbers in spring training there is a chance it carries over into the season - or at least leads to early at bats. But even more so, do not be afraid of new developments. For example, Keston Hiura changed his swing and then hit .393 with four homers in spring. Even if you do not start him in Week 1 due to playing time concern, add him to your bench just in case it sticks now that the games count.
Setting the Optimal Week 1 Lineup for Pitchers
Just like hitters, you should absolutely start your studs in the opening week of the baseball season. But after that it all changes. Every year, fantasy managers try to force as many starters into their rotation as they can. That will likely especially be the case this season as there are so few relievers that we can fully trust to get save opportunities. Rather than starting a reliever who may get a save, many will opt to just go with a starter and take guaranteed stats. But the issue is - the stats are guaranteed, but whether they are good or bad is not.
There are arms in the opening weekend that you could feel good sliding in your starting lineup such as Tylor Megill, Zach Greinke, Patrick Sandoval, Nick Pivetta, Kyle Gibson, Michael Kopech, Carlos Carrasco, Tanner Houck and Bailey Ober are some examples. You may not have drafted any of those pitchers early, but they are all in matchups that are not super scary and all provide some upside as well. But if you are trying to get as many starts in your lineup as possible, it could mean that you are sliding in some fringier arms that you do not feel great about. Some of the pitchers like that to open the season are John Means, Jon Gray, Merrill Kelly, Matt Manning, Mitch Keller, Luis Severino, Kyle Wright, Marco Gonzales and any Rockies pitchers. Those SP should all be on your bench, despite making a start in the opening weekend of the season.
One reason for that is we tend to not see pitchers go deep into games early in the season. That is especially true for pitchers who are not aces. So you could be looking at four or five innings to open the season from one of those starters. None of them will blow you away with strikeouts and if they are not going deep into the game, the chance of picking up a win is reduced. At that point you are hoping for a potential win and a few strikeouts, but one bad inning has the potential to damage your ratios. So what should you do instead of starting these sort of pitchers? Start relievers instead!
If a starter goes four or five innings, you could get similar production out of a reliever. Especially since relievers tend to have higher strikeout rates, two appearances for a reliever could look awfully similar to the results you get from a risky backend starter. Additionally, a bad inning from a reliever hurts your ratios about as much as a bad inning from one of those starters who do not go deep into games will. But there is another perk other than simply avoiding land mines disguised as starters. Adding a reliever on a team without a set closer gives you a chance at picking up an extra save or two - or perhaps even the closer moving forward.
Saves are the most analyzed stat during draft season in fantasy baseball. Not only are the proven closers going ver high in drafts, but many managers are now taking speculative picks on players that could deliver some saves. But there is about two-third of the MLB that we are not sure at all who will get the first save cracks. Adding relievers on teams like the Padres, Royals, Reds, Giants, Marlins and Cubs not only gives you the a spec save arm for cheap. You could be cutting a fringe starter for a potential closer before the season.
Why is that so important? Because closers always go for a lot of FAAB on the waiver wire. Additionally, if you pick up a closer in June, you may get three months’ worth of saves. If you add one in April? You may get six months’ worth of saves! There is just so much more upside with trying to get these potential closers in your lineups this week rather than fringe starters who could get lit up and really put your ratios behind the eight ball. Trust me, there is nothing worse than looking at a really high ERA and WHIP after just one week.
Also, to further get you ready to start the season RotoBaller has matchup breakdowns for both hitters and pitchers that will get your lineups ready each and every week throughout the fantasy baseball season!
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