X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Way Too Early 2024 MLB Cy Young Award Favorites

Tarik Skubal - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Connelly Doan takes a look at a few MLB starting pitchers who have a good chance to take home the Cy Young hardware in the 2024 season.

It’s the middle of winter and what is everybody thinking about? The 2024 MLB season, of course! While it may technically be too early to be thinking about end-of-season awards, it certainly is fun. The major award for pitchers is the Cy Young Award, given to one pitcher from each league. Whether you’re a fan of baseball, pitching in particular, or betting, it’s never too early to start considering who could earn the award in 2024.

Before predicting Cy Young candidates, let’s first review the award and the profile of pitchers who tend to earn it. The award is almost exclusively won by starting pitchers. In terms of metrics, innings pitched seem to somewhat matter with a floor of around 170 IP. However, more IP do not necessarily mean a better chance of earning the award.

Cy Young winners also tend to have an ERA under 3.00, sometimes even below 2.00. WHIP threshold is usually under 1.00, and strikeout rate is usually well over 9.00 K/9. There are other considerations, but this paints a general picture of how to spot a potential Cy Young winner. With those guidelines in mind, let’s take a look at three American League pitchers and three National League pitchers who I think could be Cy Young contenders at the end of 2024.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2024 AL Cy Young Favorites

Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins

My first AL Cy Young candidate has shown flashes of dominance throughout his career, but has never been able to tie it all together for a full season. Pablo Lopez had a solid first season with the Twins overall, going 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 29.2% strikeout rate in 32 starts and 194 IP. Here’s why I think he has what it takes to bring home a Cy Young award.

First, Lopez has shown that he can eat innings when healthy. The 27-year-old has dealt with a slew of injuries throughout his career, but he managed to pitch 180 innings in 2022 and reached a career-high in 2023. There is no reason to think he cannot hit a similar mark in 2024 barring injury.

He also has elite stuff. Lopez has a five-pitch arsenal with few holes, leading to his high strikeout rate and a 14.5% swinging-strike rate. It also led to an excellent batted-ball profile and expected results, as indicated by red across his Statcast page.

The issue he ran into in 2023 was a slow start. Lopez posted a 4.24 ERA in 17 starts through June, although his 3.48 SIERA was much more encouraging. Things righted themselves after, as Lopez managed a 3.03 ERA in 15 starts the rest of the way. It seemed like Lopez got unlucky for the entire first half of the season, which is not something one would expect to occur regularly.

Having the stuff alone will not guarantee winning awards; everything has to come together over the full course of the season. Pablo Lopez does have the ability to miss bats, limit hard contact, and pitch deep into games. However, it took over half a season for his underlying numbers to finally catch up to his peripherals. If he starts 2024 firing on all cylinders, I think Lopez can win a Cy Young award.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

My second AL candidate has garnered a lot of attention lately for how he performed in 2023. Tarik Skubal missed the first portion of the season with a left flexor tendon injury but went 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 32.9% strikeout rate in 15 starts and 80 ⅓ IP. The 27-year-old also missed time in 2022 due to injury but pitched well. Is health the only thing holding Skubal back from winning the Cy Young in 2024?

It is of course a bit of an oversimplification, but I do think the answer is yes. First, Skubal came back in 2023 with almost two extra mph on his fastball, which allowed him to throw it more in combination with his deadly changeup. All three of his main pitches (four-seamer, changeup, slider) had swinging-strike rates above 10%, with his changeup being the highest at 27.6%.

He also had a great Statcast profile overall. Specifically, his 2.00 xERA and 2.77 SIERA support his excellent ERA. The least impressive part of his profile was his middling hard contact, but he kept the ball out of the air with an 8.7-degree launch angle.

Overall, Skubal looked like a Cy Young candidate once he returned in 2023. His 2022-to-2023 improvements seem sustainable given that he was returning from an injury. The biggest impediment to a Cy Young award seems to be health. Don’t be surprised to see him win if he can make 30 starts in 2024.

Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

My final AL candidate is my boldest take in the whole article. Cole Ragans had a tale of two halves in 2023, posting a poor 5.92 ERA out of the bullpen for the Rangers before being traded to the Royals and compiling a stellar 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 31.1% strikeout rate in 12 starts. As a former first-round draft pick with one-half of an excellent season under his belt, can Ragans vault himself into the Cy Young running in 2024?

A lot will have to go right for him of course, but I do think it’s possible. First, he did make 19 combined starts between Triple-A and the big leagues and racked up 124 ⅓ IP combined. The Royals will need Ragans in their rotation this season, so I don’t foresee them babying his inning count. 

He also flashed elite strikeout upside with a 14.1% overall swinging-strike rate. His secondary pitches are particularly lethal, as he generated an 18.8% swinging-strike rate with his changeup and a 25.8% swinging-strike rate with his slider. He also has a 96.5 mph fastball with a ton of spin.

The clear thing Ragans will need to improve is his WHIP, particularly his walk rate. Ragans allowed too many free runners with a 10.5% walk rate throughout the season. He’ll need to learn to pitch in the zone more, as his zone rate was only 40.9%. I think this can be achieved, as he is just 26 years old and doesn’t have a ton of big-league experience.

Ragans’ 12 starts to end the 2023 season provided a lot to be excited about for next season. He showed all the makings of a front-end starter and a potential Cy Young winner. He will need to prove that he can produce consistently and has things he will need to work on, but it isn’t out of the question that it won’t all come together.

 

2024 NL Cy Young Favorites

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

My first NL Cy Young candidate is no stranger to pitching greatness, having won the award back in 2021. Corbin Burnes’ name has popped up this offseason as a potential trade candidate, but I think he has a chance to win the Cy Young award for whatever team he plays on. He had a relatively down 2023, compiling a 3.39 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 25.5% strikeout rate in 32 starts and 193 ⅔ IP. Why do I think he can rebound in 2024? Let’s find out.

First, any pitcher who has shown they have the stuff to win a Cy Young award should not be considered out of the running. Burnes is just 29 years old and won his Cy Young award in his age-26 season, so he is still in the prime of his career.

He has also proven to be a durable arm. He only pitched 167 innings when he won the Cy Young, but his innings totals over the following seasons were 202 and 193 ⅔. There is somewhat of an innings threshold to hit, but more innings pitched allows for more innings to rack up strikeouts and improve/solidify ratio metrics.

Digging into his 2023 numbers, the peripherals took a step back, but the underlying numbers remained pretty consistent. Burnes’ hard-hit numbers were all solid and were lower than his 2022 numbers, and his expected metrics were all toward the top of baseball. His overall Statcast profile suggests a high-end starter. His overall batted-ball profile compared to his results suggests to me that regression in ERA and WHIP are very feasible.

The biggest step back came in the strikeout department. Burnes has an impressive career strikeout rate of 30.4%, and his 2023 mark was the lowest full-season mark of his career. Looking at his pitch arsenal, Burnes has utilized nearly the same pitch mix since 2021. While his velocity was slightly down across the board in 2023 compared to 2021-22, the dip was only about one-half to one mph difference.

Burnes had similar movement on his three main pitches: cutter, curveball, and changeup, and located them well. None of this explains the strikeout dip, further supporting the opportunity for a bounce-back.

It may not be surprising to see a former Cy Young winner in this article, but I think Corbin Burnes has everything in place to compete for the award in 2024. His peripherals fell short last season, but everything under the hood looks close to what it did in the past couple of seasons. I see no reason why he can’t take home the hardware once again.

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

My next NL candidate has shown all the makings of a Cy Young candidate, and now may finally be the time to put them all together. Spencer Strider is just 25 years old, but is one of baseball’s top pitchers. He had a solid 2023 season, going 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and an insane 36.8% strikeout rate in 32 starts and 186 ⅔ IP. He has just one-and-a-half big league seasons under his belt, but it is clear he has everything it takes to win the award.

For starters, Strider possesses some of the best strikeout stuff in baseball. He relies on a deadly fastball-slider combo, despite being a starter. His fastball comes in at 97.2 mph with a ton of spin, and he complements that with a slider that generates a 28.9% swinging-strike rate. His strikeout rate and 18.9% overall swinging-strike rate in 2023 were only topped by elite closers, so he has the upper hand in that department for Cy Young considerations.

He was also able to take the innings jump in 2023. Strider’s 2022 rookie season was spent both as a reliever and as a starter to monitor his innings, and he went from 131 ⅔ to 186 ⅔ in 2023. It remains to be seen if he can take another step forward to get closer to 200, but his 2023 performance was more than enough to get into Cy Young range.

The biggest blemish to his changes in 2023 was his ERA, which was surprising after his 2.67 mark in 2022. Looking closer, it seems as though Strider got unlucky. He did a good job limiting hard contact and had a much better 3.09 xERA and 2.86 SIERA. 

Overall, Strider seems to have everything it takes to be a Cy Young winner. He has elite strikeout upside, he can pitch enough innings, and his batted-ball profile lends itself to a low ERA. It also doesn’t hurt that he should win a lot of games with the Braves. Assuming it can all click at once, Strider should have no problem winning the award in 2024.

Jesus Luzardo, Miami Marlins

My final NL candidate is a former top prospect who is finally starting to find his way. Jesus Luzardo has put together two solid seasons with the Marlins, going 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 28.1% strikeout rate in 32 starts and 178 ⅔ IP last season. While he has yet to put together a Cy Young-worthy season, he has been trending in the right direction, and I think he could get closer in 2024.

Luzardo hit many of the “Cy Young metrics'' for the first time in 2023. He hit a full-time workload with 178 ⅔ IP, up significantly from his 2022 total of 100 ⅓. It was also encouraging to see his performance more or less maintained despite pitching so many more innings. His ERA only jumped from 3.32 to 3.58, and his strikeout rate dropped from an excellent 30.0% to a still-strong 28.1%.

The part of his game that will need to take a step forward to be a Cy Young contender in 2024 is the WHIP. His 7.4% walk rate was fine, but his .311 BABIP leaves room for improvement. The underlying issue could be the hard contact Luzardo gave up. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were in the 37th and 44th percentiles of baseball, respectively.

The good news is that Luzardo doesn’t allow a ton of contact, as he had a decent 70.8% contact rate in 2023. However, if he can figure out how to avoid hard contact while maintaining his high strikeout rate, his BABIP, WHIP, and ERA should all benefit.

Of my three NL candidates, Luzardo is the only one who has to prove that he has all the skills to meet the necessary criteria. However, he made several strides from 2022 to 2023 and has clear strikeout upside. If he can finesse his main three-pitch arsenal to avoid hard contact, I think he could be in the running for a Cy Young award in 2024.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF