Way Too Early 2022 Mock Draft for Fantasy Football - Round 1 Breakdown

February 13, 2022

Pierre Camus reviews round 1 of RotoBaller's early fantasy football mock draft for the 2022 fantasy football season, and discusses the biggest ADP surprises.

The fantasy football season is barely in the books but that didn’t stop us RotoBallers from participating in a way too early 2021 mock draft. We gathered 12 zealous football analysts for a slow PPR mock over 12 rounds (1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX) on Sleeper to get an early glance at how ADP for next year might shake out.

As usual, when drafting this early, there were plenty of surprises. In this breakdown, I will evaluate each pick from the first round to determine which picks provided the best value and which might be considered reaches. Check out the full draft board on Sleeper here.

Note: This is part 1 of 3 where I will look over the first round of the draft. Part 2 will cover rounds 2-4 and part 3 will cover the later rounds.

Complete Mock Draft Board

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Round 1

Pick 1 - Jonathan Taylor

He isn't quite a slam dunk as the top pick but JT will be the first pick more often than not in 2022 drafts. I already covered the various factors as to why Taylor should be the #1 overall pick. With CMC out of contention and Henry coming off a serious foot injury, Taylor is the closest thing to a sure bet at the top spot. Just look to his league-leading 332 rush attempts and 83 red-zone attempts and make this pick with confidence.

Pick 2 - Derrick Henry

Despite missing half the 2021 season with a foot injury that many predicted, Henry won't fall outside the top three in many drafts. His prolific pace is too hard to ignore and he'll continue to be used in the same capacity in Tennessee next year. Henry was touching the ball almost 30 times per game and managed to finish in the top-10 for rush attempts and yards while playing just eight games. That's... insane.

Injury concerns can be swept aside as long as he doesn't re-aggravate anything in the postseason or training camp. Half a season of Henry can still net you a fantasy RB1 and a full season will rightfully justify this selection.

Pick 3 - Cooper Kupp

There's no need to regurgitate all the stats that prove how dominant Cooper Kupp was in 2021. He came with 17 yards of breaking Calvin Johnson's single-season record (yeah, extra game, I know) and had a commanding lead over Davante Adams for overall WR1 status. He was clearly the top player in all of fantasy, in fact, with a 66-point lead over Taylor in PPR formats. The debate here is whether it's better to go with a wide receiver or running back at the top of the draft.

In 2020, Alvin Kamara was the top fantasy player but only 19 points ahead of Adams. Most of that was due to his Week 16 outburst with six touchdowns. Only three of the top 12 players were running backs and consensus first-rounders like CMC, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire weren't worth their draft slot.

Running backs had reasserted their dominance in 2019 when McCaffrey blew everyone out of the water and six of the top seven scorers were RBs even in full PPR. Still, there were first-round busts like James Conner, Le'Veon Bell, and David Johnson while the first four WRs according to ADP all finished as top-15 WRs on a PPG basis.

The 2018 season was top-heavy with the top four fantasy scorers being running backs but 11 of the top 16 were either WR or TE.

Bottom line: selecting a wide receiver instead of a running back in the first few picks provides a bigger safety net but a lower ceiling. Of course, if you believe Kupp is in line to repeat his 2021 numbers then there's no debate - he should go first overall.

Pick 4 - Najee Harris

This is my favorite pick of the first round. It's hard to call anyone a great value, especially at 1.4 but Harris has a strong case to be considered as the number two overall pick and is one of the safest choices out there. Harris only ran for 3.9 yards per carry but can't be blamed for that given the state of the Steelers' offensive line. What's more important than rushing average is volume. Harris had that in spades, carrying the ball 319 times, second only to Taylor. He also led all RBs with 94 targets and 74 receptions.

The loss of Ben+Roethlisberger" data-id="3807">Ben Roethlisberger only solidifies the fact that this offense will revolve around Harris. The Steelers somehow slipping into the postseason means they won't pick inside the top-18 in the NFL Draft but they are expected to address the offensive line there along with the $44 million of cap space they have in the offseason. Harris' floor is arguably higher than Taylor's since he is far more involved as a receiver.

Pick 5 - Austin Ekeler

Ekeler turned out to be undervalued in 2021 drafts. Will it be the opposite next year? He has everything on his side in terms of backfield share, team context, and efficiency metrics. My worry is whether touchdown regression will hit hard like it did to the next pick, Kamara.

Ekeler scored a grand total of three times in 2020 before crossing the goal-line 20 times in 2021. Any downtick in that important category could push him down the RB ranks since he isn't as heavily-utilized as some other backs. Similary, Kamara scored six times in 2019 (rushing and receiving TD), then went off for 21 scores in 2020, and fell back to nine touchdowns in 2021. Touchdown rate is the least sticky stat there is and very dependent on many circumstances outside the player's control. This doesn't mean I hate Ekeler going this high, it's just not a slam dunk that he'll deliver proper return on investment.

Pick 6 - Alvin Kamara

Last year's fantasy MVP was solid but never spectacular in 2021, mostly due to the revolving door at quarterback. The offense was less efficient, leading him to score a total of nine touchdowns on the year compared to 21 the year before. He only ran in four scores on the ground, which is two fewer than he had in Week 16 of 2020 alone.

Kamara might be in a similar situation next year. Taysom Hill is recovering from Lisfranc surgery, Jameis Winston from ACL surgery, and Drew Brees is still retired. Kamara always brings the high floor you crave out of the top player on your team but we've seen the ceiling drop precipitously and it may not return.

Pick 7 - Christian McCaffrey

Here's the first true make-or-break pick. Run CMC didn't do much running in 2021, missing 10 games due to injury and again letting fantasy managers down by missing the late-season playoff stretch. We know what he is capable of and he was excellent when on the field last year, averaging 21 PPR points per game. This could be a league winner available at pick seven or another wasted first-rounder.

One would think he could be at full health to start the season so injury concerns could be dismissed. It's not as if he tore an Achilles or an ACL, after all. While the term "injury-prone" is overused and can be misleading, it is more problematic that McCaffrey always seems to have something going on and the time missed for each injury is longer than expected.

How to approach injured players this far removed from the preseason is a subjective matter. A bigger issue might be the fact that Matt Rhule is returning for another year as coach. Mid-first round seems about right to take this risk.

Pick 8 - Dalvin Cook

Injuries and touchdown regression also relegate a former top-tier RB to the middle of the round. Not only did Cook miss four games this past season, he was absent in the all-important Week 16 matchup and even worse, only ran for 13 yards in Week 17 when championships were on the line. Fantasy GMs won't soon forgive him for that.

That could all be set aside if not for the fact that Alexander Mattison looked pretty good when taking Cook's place. It's possible a new coaching regime decides to lighten the load for Cook and use a more balanced approach with the running game like most clubs. Cook can't fall outside the first but shouldn't be viewed as a top-five selection either, making this a solid value.

Pick 9 - Javonte Williams

The hype train has officially left the station. There is no reason to doubt Williams' talent, as he led the league with 31 broken tackles and ran for 903 yards despite being in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon. The assumption is that Gordon will leave in free agency and Williams will have a chance to lead the league in rushing. But, hear me out, what if he doesn't?

Gordon was just as effective in the same offense, averaging 4.5 yards per carry to Williams' 4.4, and was used more in the red zone with a 35-27 carry advantage.

The highest-graded offensive Broncos this season 🔸

1️⃣ Melvin Gordon - 77.8
2️⃣ Garett Boles - 76.6
3️⃣ Javonte Williams - 75.9
4️⃣ Teddy Bridgewater - 73.5
5️⃣ Courtland Sutton - 71.2
5️⃣ Tim Patrick - 71.2 pic.twitter.com/GEjy4IlQuB

— PFF DEN Broncos (@PFF_Broncos) January 11, 2022

If the Broncos go with a rookie QB in the draft, they could easily find it worthwhile to retain their 1-2 punch in the backfield. At age 28, Gordon isn't likely to land a lucrative deal in free agency better than what Denver could offer. If Gordon does leave, the upside for Williams might cause him to approach first-round status but that's a huge assumption to make this early.

Pick 10 - D'Andre Swift

Oh boy. I get the tantalizing talent he flashes here and there can be alluring but are we really trusting a Detroit Lions running back not named Barry as a first-round pick? Swift was a top-10 RB on a PPG basis and one would think the offense has nowhere to go but up. However, a combination of various injuries throughout his first two seasons and ineptitude throughout the organization make it hard to trust him this early. I prefer Swift as a high-end RB2 rather than a first-rounder.

Pick 11 - Justin Jefferson

This was my pick so rather than justifying it, I'll simply explain the rationale. The WR2 behind Kupp should be Davante Adams, but as you'll read below, there are some risks involved. Jefferson put up a then-record 1,400 receiving yards as a rookie and followed up with 1,616 yards. Year three could be even better with a less conservative coaching staff now that Mike Zimmer has been let go. Jefferson was within 15 points of Adams this season so you're splitting hairs as it is. Give me the younger player over the one who's about to be a free agent.

Pick 12 - Davante Adams

If all goes as it has for the past couple of seasons, Adams could be a steal here. There is that whole matter of him being a free agent after breaking off contract talks in the offseason and Aaron Rodgers possibly retiring or wanting out... Rather than guessing what might happen in Green Bay, much of which may be dependent on the postseason outcome, let's just say Adams should be a high-end WR1 no matter where he plays.

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