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Ben's (@UeberMD) fantasy baseball SP waiver wire advice for strikeouts -- top MLB starting pitchers to add off waivers for the fantasy baseball stretch run.
As August rounds into September, fantasy baseball managers in various positions need to figure out how to best optimize their teams. Those fighting for playoff spots in points leagues should be looking for any and all players who can fill gaps in their lineups. Those in category-based leagues might find themselves in a different situation, needing to target specific statistics to plug the holes in an otherwise solid squad.
Outside of the always-fun Marmol strategy, a well-balanced pitching squad in both categories and points leagues often consists of somewhere between two and five relievers (closers in saves-only leagues). The rest is starting pitchers to tally strikeouts and wins. A diversity of pitchers is needed in categories leagues to avoid punting any categories. In points leagues, having a mix of relievers who pitch a few times per week in addition to a stable of starters typically leads to a steady output compared to loading up on one or the other.
In all of these formats, strikeouts are going to be a big upside for most starting pitchers. They may boost an otherwise mediocre outing in points leagues, making for a net-positive outing. In categories leagues, a starter pitching for a mediocre team with limited win upside can be a sneaky pickup to contribute to a squad seeking a boost in the strikeout category specifically. Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) evaluates those pitchers who are less than 50% owned to see where some hidden gems might be hiding in terms of strikeout-forward starters.
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Top Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Strikeout Candidates
Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers (45% rostered)
Tarik Skubal continues to impress but is not getting the love he deserves, an unfortunate side effect for many pitching in the Motor City. While his wins may be limited with the Tigers backing him, Skubal also carries the least risk of any pitcher on this list.
Skubal has increased his fastball by 2.0 mph on average since returning from his flexor tendon injury, and he leads with that dominant pitch topping out at 97-98 mph. His 28.1 K% puts him seventh in the league, in fine company just behind Max Scherzer and Blake Snell. When a pitcher has an under-the-hood change like Skubal's velocity to back up his performance, you can feel confident it is here to stay.
While this list focuses on strikeouts, Skubal cannot be discussed without highlighting his 1.92 FIP. Skubal is not a wild pitcher hurling strikeouts, he is a methodical pitcher working through at-bats and limiting damage. The only managers who should avoid Skubal are those specifically seeking wins. Otherwise, he should be rostered immediately.
Nick Pivetta - Boston Red Sox (40% rostered)
Mediocrity with a one-category upside can actually create a significant contributor in fantasy baseball. So long as a pitcher does not blow up your ratios and is playing for a middle-of-the-pack or above team, strikeout upside can be the tipping point pushing managers towards rostering that pitcher.
Nick Pivetta is a great example of that. Just a few games out of a Wild Card spot, the Red Sox will be fighting for every win, making Pivetta a coin flip in the win category every time he starts or gets a look in long relief. That is more than can be said for some other names on this list. His 4.28 ERA and 4.33 FIP suggest his current performance is a predictor of how he will be the rest of the year in ratios, and that is mediocre.
However, Pivetta is producing a 30.5 K%, the highest of anyone on this list and all other sub-50% owned pitchers considered for this list. The most fun part about Pivetta is his sweeper -- a relatively "new" pitch that moves more laterally than vertically, but with a looser spin than a slider. Pivetta's sweeper boasts a 48.6 Whiff%. As long as that pitch is working, the strikeouts are there for managers' taking.
Pivetta has moved around between bullpen, starting, and long-relief roles. In all of those roles, the strikeouts will come. He can be a sneaky add when other managers overlook him due to his fluctuating role.
Cole Ragans - Kansas City Royals (35% rostered)
He's a rookie. He pitches for the Royals. He could have a short leash...but we have to believe. Cole Ragans is worth a metaphorical trust fall, as he has been absolutely stellar for the lowly Royals since coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade.
In terms of categories, Ragans profiles similarly to Skubal with relatively minimal win upside. But a 3.23 FIP suggests he will be a net-even or net-positive addition to ratio categories.
The 6'4" lefty boasts a nasty combination of fastball-changeup. Hitters sit on his fastball, topping out at 101 mph, only to find themselves out in front of his 86 mph changeup. Ragans boasts the highest SwStr% rate on this list at 14.7%, which puts him in the top 10 of all MLB pitchers in 2023. Hitters have yet to figure out Ragans, and those in need of strikeouts will be lucky to find him on the waiver wire.
Bryan Woo - Seattle Mariners (20% rostered)
As Ric Flair would say -- Woo! The dynamic Mariners rookie returned from a brief stint on the shelf for forearm inflammation, which conveniently also helped limit his innings total for the year. While he carries injury and innings limit risks, Bryan Woo has as much strikeout upside as anyone on this list.
Woo brings wins upside with him, backed by a strong Mariners lineup playing for a division title. Managers in need of a wins-strikeouts combo should be looking at Woo, who is capable of a dominant outing each time he takes the bump.
His fastball shines, topping out at 95-96 mph and boasting a 28.7 Whiff% and 24.2 PutAway%, both stellar numbers for a fastball in particular. He holds a 3.96 FIP and a relatively low walk risk at 7.2%, making him a relatively low-risk addition compared to others on this list. Roster Woo, see how he does, and keep him for the strikeouts (or more).
Kyle Harrison - San Francisco Giants (15% rostered)
There had to be one flier on this list, and Kyle Harrison certainly fits that bill. There have always been control concerns in the minor leagues with a 16.3 BB% over 65.2 IP in Triple-A last year, and that risk will likely remain throughout the rest of 2023.
However, this list is about strikeouts, and Harrison has always brought those in spades. His one start renders his MLB advanced statistics (K%) unreliable, but Harrison struck out five Phillies in his debut on August 22 despite only pitching 3.1 innings. That's right, he registered 10 outs, five of them strikeouts. That's a Josh Hader line more than a starting pitcher line.
Perhaps the most eye-popping stat of that outing was his 35.4 CSW%. More than one-third of Harrison's pitches were either called strikes or whiffs! Despite the walks, Harrison registered a 35.6 K% in Triple-A last year. If he can even approach that number in the MLB, he will likely provide more strikeouts down the stretch than anyone else on this list.
If you can tolerate the risk or are scrambling for strikeouts towards the end of a weekly matchup, Harrison is as close to a guarantee as they get. Now, he just needs to keep his control so Gabe Kapler does not have to get the hook too early.
