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Kev Mahserejian examines veteran MLB players who are enjoying bounce-back seasons in fantasy baseball early on in 2021.
The old, boring vets are often the most painful to draft. We've likely seen their ceiling or are so far past it that their current level of production is meager in comparison.
This relative way of thinking typically leaves a poorly framed assessment on that subset of players, leaving value to be harvested among the savvy while the youth-chasers wait for the breakouts that may, or may not come.
Obviously, the best way to draft is to assess the risk of each pick (essentially baked into ADP) and find your mix of young, prime, and aging players. There is no one style to target, just players with better pick value than others. Thus far in 2021, we have seen several veterans coming off of down 2020 seasons and performing beyond expectation in what is possibly a rebirth of sorts.
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Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
This might sound crazy and I'm still having a tough time wrapping my mind around it...but Wainwright might be back. Yes, it is only five starts but what we're seeing is as close to prime Wainwright as we have seen in a long time. To be fair, his strikeout and walk numbers are as good as they have ever been. His 18.9% K-BB% is close to a career-high and hey, maybe it is a bit skewed by the matchups over the past few weeks versus Washington twice, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia but it is still an impressive feat.
Waino struggled in his most recent start against a struggling Mets offense loaded with good hitters but still managed to get through 5 2/3 innings with five K. He pitches in a favorable home park with a good defense behind him and could be experiencing a late-career rejuvenation. The adoption of analytics-driven offseason could be what is resulting in this. His fastball and curveball have added some spin according to Statcast but we shall see if this holds up rest-of-season.
Anthony DeSclafani, San Francisco Giants
Tony Disco, baby! Anthony DeSclafani is back after two a brutal 2020 that saw his fastball velocity and ERA rise. Typically, this does not go hand-in-hand but the shortened season could be to blame there. Oracle Park is also SIGNIFICANTLY more favorable to pitch in than Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark which can't hurt his confidence when allowing fly balls. Speaking of, he has a career-high groundball rate and career-low line-drive and fly-ball rate at the moment.
He is running a K-BB% similar to his career-high 2019 and has a WHIP below 1.00 at the moment. I'd absolutely be rostering DeSclafani as his career struggles can be more linked to his uncertain health rather than skill.
Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants
Another veteran Giants pitcher looking as good as ever is Alex Wood. Wood, similar to DeSclafani is a talented pitcher whose struggles can be linked to injury rather than lack of skill. Wood has essentially been irrelevant since being traded away from the Dodgers in 2019 but has looked incredible through 18 IP with the Giants. He returned from another IL stint just two weeks ago and has dominated in each outing.
However, these outings have been against the Marlins twice and the Rockies away from Coors. While this may be easy to dismiss, he did manage to go six innings in his most recent start and has his velocity back around 92mph. He is generating whiffs and limiting hard contact well while throwing more sliders than ever and fewer sinkers than in recent years. As long as he remains healthy, he deserves to be rostered almost everywhere moving forward.
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
I promise this is the last San Francisco Giant. Apparently, taking a year off from baseball is exactly what the doctor ordered for this former MVP. Posey looks like his old self at the dish and is slashing .359/.428/.688 through 71 plate appearances. Meanwhile, he has six home runs, 14 runs, and nine RBI. His six long balls are half as many as he had between all 993 plate appearances of 2018 through 2019.
Posey is obviously not going to keep up a slugging percentage of .600 or BABIP of .370 but he is hitting the hell out of the ball and making his usual amount of very, very good contact. Regression will come by all means but even that will be a roster-able hitter who can slot in at catcher, the weakest spot in almost every fantasy lineup. Posey is spraying the ball around the field and looking healthy/spry. Pick him up if you need that C spot filled.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Now, this is not Joey Votto of old but a good enough version to justify rostering in your league. He is actually underperforming a bit despite possessing 5 HR and 17 RBI through 113 plate appearances. Votto's current AVG (.235) and SLG (.441) are significantly below the expectation of his batted balls - xBA (.293) and xSLG (597). While xStats are more descriptive than predictive it is great to see that Votto has underperformed thus far and still been fantasy relevant despite going undrafted in so many leagues.
He has the clear name value and plays in a favorable home park with a great lineup ahead of him. Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos have been on an absolute tear to start the season and as long as they keep doing their jobs, Votto's will be easier. I'd be holding onto Votto if you are frustrated by any recent skid or even trading for him if a corner infielder is needed.
Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers
Travis Shaw is back where his initial breakout began. In 2017, his first season as Brewer, Shaw skyrocketed in value with 31 HR, 84 runs, 101 RBI, and 10 SB. He slashed .272/.349/.513 and leaped into the realm of a top-100 fantasy baseball pick the next season. He proceeded to slightly dip across the slash-line and counting stats but nevertheless produced well enough to continue buying in. Then, in a dark turn, he fell face-flat in 2019 as the Brewers' offense was set to take off in Christian Yelich's second season with the team. Shaw disintegrated at the plate and was sent down and up from the minors to work out the kinks in his swing. It never clicked and he wound up in Toronto last year where he was better but still not good enough.
Now, Shaw has accumulated five HR, nine runs, and 22 RBI in 104 plate appearances. His slash-line is very similar to last year as is his K/BB but the Brewers' lineup had been abysmal during Wong and Yelich's departure to the IL. Wong is now back and healthy enough to play every day which has been a solid boost to the lineup as a whole but Yelich remains on IL until further notice. Shaw should benefit from a healthier lineup along with the extremely lefty-friendly Miller Park this season.
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