Using Launch Data to Search for Power Breakouts in Fantasy Baseball

Statcast data is such a beautiful thing. I start a ton of posts like this, but I want to say again - the quantity and richness of this data gives guys like me endless opportunities for statistical analysis.

Today, we're going to dive into the hitting pool and focus on launch profiles, with the aim of searching for some breakout hitters ahead of the 2023 season.

As I often do, I want to take a look at a certain hitter profile that has proven to be the recipe for success, and then find hitters that either a) have that profile but haven't had a ton of success or b) are really close to having this profile to where a small change could put them in it and facilitate a breakout.

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We're focused on power-hitting here, which is a good thing to have on your fantasy team since it is a major driver behind all of the standard roto categories besides steals. Away we go!

The Ideal Profile

Launch velocity is pretty straightforward: the more velocity, the better. Launch angle, on the other hand, is not that way. Too low of an angle is bad but too high of an angle is also bad.

Here's a quick look at the batting average of each launch angle:

We are only looking at batting average here, which means "did it go for a hit or not?" Because of that, we see a .300 batting average of around -60 degrees, and these are all going to be those choppers that go directly into the ground and into no man's land for an infield hit. On either side of that angle are very low batting averages, and then they really start creeping up in a hurry once you get towards 15 degrees - those are your line drives that go over the infielders but don't get to the outfielders. And then after you're past 35 degrees or so, most of your batted balls are going to get caught by somebody.

So that's batting average, pretty darn simple! In the fantasy game, however, we don't really want infield singles. We want doubles and homers - that's where all those sweet, sweet counting stats come from. So what exit profile do we want to see for extra bases? Here's a massive matrix of the HR% at each launch angle & velocity combination:

The blank spaces are there because there weren't enough batted balls hit at that angle/velo combination over the last two seasons, but this paints a pretty clear picture either way. If you want to hit a homer, you're going to want to hit the ball in general terms, like this:

• Above 95 miles per hour
• Between 20 and 35 degrees

With extra velocity comes a wider angle range. All of this is the concept behind the "barrels" stat, I'm not breaking any new ground here! If you're looking at barrel rate, you're already using a dynamic velo/angle range.

The cream of the crop, of course, is Aaron Judge. To hit 62 homers, you have to do pretty much everything right. In 2022, Judge averaged 95.4 miles per hour of exit velocity and had a great average exit angle of 14.9 degrees. That resulted in the best barrel rate in Statcast history (among qualified hitters) of 26.7%.

It's not going to do you any good for me to tell you to draft Aaron Judge next year, of course, and it won't be very helpful for me to tell you about the power-hitting greatness of Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez either, so what we want to do next is to look around the edges here and find some more interesting names for fantasy purposes that are putting up numbers we should notice.

On my MLB Tableau dashboard, I have made a new tab called Launch Angle vs. Launch Velocity - it's a scatter plot with every hitter's average angle and velo on a scatter plot and it colors the dots by the barrel rate. You can also adjust the inputs to filter the hitters shown, it's a pretty cool tool - you can check it out here.

Here's a screenshot of it:

You see the clear winners here. The dark red dots are all between 10 and 25 degrees and above a 92 or so average exit velocity. I'm going to use the filters now to find some interesting hitter names.

Great Profile, Small Sample

Here, we are looking at hitters that fall within the ideal range but just didn't have enough balls in play for us to really take them seriously. Here's a look:

I dialed back the minimum BIP to 20 and looked at hitters above 91 mph and between 15 and 30 degrees. Some standouts here:

#1 Stone Garrett, Washington Nationals

He went for a brilliant velocity/angle combination but did it on just 50 balls in play (Kyle Schwarber, by comparison, put 379 balls in play). The problem he had was with the strikeout, as he gave away 32% of his plate appearances going down on strikes. His Major League contact rate of 62% isn't a good sign either, but when he was putting balls in play, he was doing it with serious authority and success.

Garrett played most of his season in the AAA Pacific Coast League, which means there is minor league Statcast data to explore! In the minors:

He limited strikeouts in the minors at a 25% K% and hit 28 homers. The one disappointing metric here is his max exit velocity of just 110 miles per hour, and that's between all 339 batted balls between the Majors and minors. You don't need to be Giancarlo Stanton routinely hitting balls above 115 miles per hour to be a successful power hitter in the league, but 110 is pretty low. Some other hitters that maxed out at 110 last year:

• J.T. Realmuto
• Marcus Semien
• Austin Hays
• Gio Urshela
• Jeff McNeil
• Jose Altuve

It's not a damning stat by any means, but at some point, it is limiting. Most of the league's 35+ homer threats max out above 113 or so. Garrett is also already 27-years-old, which takes away from some of the age-driven upside. He is less likely to add raw skill (contact rate, exit velo, etc.) at this point - but of course, it's not out of the question.

It was a good season for Garrett and one that got the attention of the Washington Nationals, who made a trade for him this offseason. It would seem that Garrett will have a chance to be an everyday player next year, as they are frankly short on other options. That park is also quite friendly to right-handed pop, which is another point in his favor. All of this makes Garrett a pretty interesting late-round power flier in deep leagues, and certainly someone to keep an eye on early next season.

#2 Trayce Thompson, Los Angeles Dodgers

Thompson has been up and down between AAA and the Majors for a few years now, but all he's done at both levels is pound homers. In 2022, he went nuts in 170 plate appearances in the minors between the International League (with Detroit) and the Pacific Coast League (after he joined on with the Padres and then the Dodgers), slashing .305/.365/.721 with 17 homers. That was a homer every 10 plate appearances, a ridiculous rate. The Dodgers needed some outfield depth in the middle of the year, so they gave Thompson a call and he came up to hit 13 more homers at the highest level in just 255 plate appearances, a strong rate of 19.6 PA/HR.

He's not exactly a prospect anymore, as he's 31-years-old and has mostly been a minor-league journeyman for his career. He has huge problems with the strikeout (36.5% in the Majors, and 28.2% in the minors) that keep him out of an everyday Major League lineup, but there's no doubt that the guy will hit homers when he's putting balls in play.

His average exit velocity was up there at 91.5 and the angle was 16.2, so he was firmly in the range we want. He did that in 128 balls in play, a decent sample but far from super convincing. In the PCL, he averaged a 93.2 mph exit velo with an average launch angle of 20.9 degrees, so really good stuff there as well.

Trayce clearly has the swing speed and path down to hit homers, and that will result in a higher BABIP (.374 last year). That's the good news. The bad news is that his strikeout rate is going to be well into the thirties, and the playing time is a question mark. He's currently projected as the Dodgers' starting centerfielder, but it's a bit hard to believe they'll go with him every day. I would say Thompson is not a considerable outfielder in standard leagues, but in best-balls or super deep leagues, he's a fine pick late if you're looking for 20+ homers.

#3 Kyle Stowers, Baltimore Orioles

We only saw 98 plate appearances from the O's prospect in 2022, but he did some really good things. He slashed a non-awful .253/.306/.418 with three homers, but again - a high 29.6% K%. We can deal with a high strikeout rate as long as the hitter really makes it count when he does put a ball in play, and Stowers did that with the nice 11.3% Brl% we see above.

That barrel rate came on just seven barrels, which makes it a bit less stable. Statcast only recorded 30 of his minor league PAs, but there was a 21.1% Brl% there and an average exit velocity of 94.2 - so yes, he hits the ball hard. He's a lefty, which is good to see now when we're looking for power from the Orioles given the dimensions in Camden Yards. However, he only pulled his fly balls half of the time, so we might see a bunch of hard-hit flyouts to the center or left next year, but we shouldn't make any judgments on the small sample here.

His strikeout rate was better in the minors, but it was far from a great number at 25.9%. Again, we're quite often going to get plenty of strikeouts with guys swinging the bat this hard, and we can manage with a 25-28% just fine.

Stowers has benefited from the Orioles' lack of moves this offseason, and he's still holding onto his spot as the team's projected DH. I think he's very interesting if that turns out to be the case; there is definite power here and he'll come pretty cheap since we've seen so little of him.

#4 Darick Hall, Philadelphia Phillies

If we set the minimum PA requirement to 125 plate appearances, only seven hitters had higher barrel rates in the Majors than Hall last year (Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, and Joey Gallo). He hit .250/.282/.522 in his time with the Phillies last year but was not a part of the team down the stretch or in the playoffs. In the minors, he went .254/.330/.528 with 28 homers in 443 plate appearances. Adding on his nine Major League dingers gave him 37 for the year (a 15.8 PA/HR), the ninth-most in professional baseball.

HR Leaders - All Levels

Hall's batted ball profile was great, but again, we're left with a guy with a big strikeout rate (31% in the Majors, but just 23% in the minors). He's 27-years-old now, so not exactly a budding prospect, and his 2021 season was much less impressive with a .403 SLG and 27 homers in 470 PA.

Things could go either way here with Hall. He has a good chance to break camp as the Phillies' primary DH with Bryce Harper on the shelf. He will be hard-pressed for PAs after Harper returns; however with Rhys Hoskins solidified at first base, teams tend to find PAs in creative ways for guys hitting a bunch of homers. If nothing else, Hall is an interesting late-round grab for some early-season pop.

Just Missed - Lower Angles

Setting the dials to:

• 50+ balls in play
• 92+ mph average launch velocity
• Average launch angle range between 0 and 15 degrees

Ji-Man Choi, Pittsburgh Pirates

Choi has had an interesting couple of years. He was not quite an everyday player for the Rays, often sitting against lefties and missing some time with injuries. Last year, however, his batted ball profile was pretty encouraging. You can see the strong exit velocity and barrel rate there, but he ended the season with a pedestrian slash-line of .233/.341/.388, hitting just 11 homers and posting a high 29% K%.

Not only did he hit too many balls on the ground (47% GB%), but he also got crushed by the shift. He was shifted on 83% of the time and he hit just .214 in those plate appearances. The shift is gone in 2023, so that will help. What we don't know is if he can lower the K% and lift the ball.

His career marks are encouraging here as well. His K% over 1,724 PA in the Majors is 25.6%, significantly lower than what we saw last year. This high GB% thing in 2022 was also new, as it was his highest GB% since 2017. From 2018-2021, he was around 40%, much different.

So we have a guy that hits the ball hard and will pick up some extra hits from the elimination of the shift. If he can raise the average launch angle a few degrees (pretty likely considering that's what he was doing prior to 2022), we could have a really decent season from Choi here with the Pirates. It's not a good lineup to be a part of, but PNC is a good park for left-handed power. There's definitely a reason to like Choi as a cheap/free option at first base in 2023.

Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox

We have all been waiting for the massive Eloy breakout for some time now. Injuries have limited him to 231 and 327 plate appearances over the last two seasons, so we have been left longing for more. What is still undeniable is Eloy's ability, as he's one of the best hitters in the league when he's healthy and in the batter's box.

It is pretty crazy to see a barrel rate so high here while a guy is hitting so many ground balls (50% GB% last year).

The ideal situation is that Eloy raises the angle 5-10 degrees, but it's not super likely to happen. His GB% has been right around 50% every year of his career, so this is probably just who he is. Year-to-year variance adds or subtracts 2-4 degrees of angle here, so if that moves in the upward direction for Eloy next year, more homers will be added.

It's not even like we need him to add more homers to be a very good fantasy hitter. The low strikeout rate (career 22%) keeps his batting average high, and he hits in a prominent spot in a good lineup. He will likely be the White Sox's primary DH this year, which could help him stay on the field.

Even with projecting the same launch angle profile, my projection system gives Eloy 28 homers and a batting average near .290 - a stud hitter. If he does happen to turn in a season with a 45% GB% instead of a 50% mark - he should easily clear 30 homers and he certainly has the upside for 40.

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

Another young Orioles lefty that showed some really great signs in 2022. He slashed .259/.344/.440 with four homers in 131 PA. The hard-hit rate of 53.7% was elite, and the average exit velocity was high, as you see above.

He took this launch angle thing to a whole new level as compared to the rest of the hitters we're talking about. His average batted ball basically went directly into the ground, which isn't great. His GB% for the season was 57% - that's extremely prohibitive if you're doing that over a full season. To make this point, here is the list of the other hitters that went above 57%.

• Jose Herrera (65%)
• Sheldon Neuse (63%)
• Nick Madrigal (63%)
• Jonathan Villar (62%)
• Gilberto Celestino (61%)
• Christian Yelich (59%)
• Lorenzo Cain (59%)
• Bubba Thompson (59%)
• Romy Gonzalez (58%)
• Cristian Pache (58%)
• Charlie Culberson (58%)
• Alek Thomas (58%)
• Odubel Herrera (58%)

That's a pretty poor list of hitters, save Yelich (I guess). The redeeming point here is that this came on just 82 balls in play, not quite enough to trust that this number will stick.

Just by virtue of the GB% being so high, it's likely that he improves on that next year. I would say it's not likely that it drops the full 10 points that we would want to see, but a reduction to 52% or so isn't at all unlikely.

Henderson is very young (21), so there is all kinds of time for improvement. He already has shown that ability to hit the ball hard in the Majors, and he limited strikeouts (25.8%) enough to feel good about. I doubt he can make a massive change in launch angle over one offseason, which casts some doubts on him being able to hit 15+ homers next year, but it's not an impossible thing to imagine. I don't think I'll have much Henderson next year, but I can see the merit to it.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Hitting the ball hard is not an issue for the Pirates' young third baseman. He ranked 22nd in the league in hard-hit balls per swing, but he once again just could not lift the ball. He has been quite consistent in his three years in the Majors, although in this case, that's not all a good thing.

He makes a lot of contact, and it's typically hard contact - but the balls just go right into the ground. If he could somehow replicate what he did in that 2020 season sprint, we would have something here - but the larger and more recent sample suggests there's really something to this ground-ball problem for him.

Combine all of that with the fact that he plays for the Pirates, and you're left wondering what exactly he can do for a fantasy team. If we knew that he'd keep this same launch profile in 2023, I'd have no interest in him for fantasy purposes. However, it's possible that he pushes that towards 10-12 degrees, and that should get him into the 20-homer range, which would be useful enough since he can get you a decent batting average and some steals.

Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates

There's not much of a problem with Cruz's launch angle range given how absurdly hard he hits the ball. The average angle was lower than you'd like, and the histogram here shows a bunch of balls hit on the ground:

With his power, even a launch of 35-40 degrees will do damage quite often, so it was pretty disappointing to see so many balls hit on the ground. If the guy can just be a league-average flyball hitter, he would flirt with the home run crown. His 49.5% GB% isn't atrocious, but it's much higher than we want to see.

Given the fact that Cruz is 6'6'' and has so much trouble with the whiff (his 64.6% contact rate was 12th-worst in the league), I don't expect him to post a launch angle profile to salivate over next year. I think being that tall and swinging the bat so hard just make it near impossible to square the ball up with regularity (his frame creates such a long swing that the timing becomes extra difficult). That said, any little improvement in this arena is going to give him significant box score gains since the ball comes off that bat so hard. You don't need me to tell you about Cruz's power upside for 2023, but I'm telling you about his power upside for 2023.

Just Missed - Dancing Around It

Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

Everything looks pretty decent here for Vinnie. He did check in with a 12-degree launch angle, which could be better - but it's not bad. He was more of a line-drive hitter than a fly-ball hitter, but he's definitely in the right neighborhood.

When we look at the histogram, we see tall bars on both sides of the optimal range. He hit a bunch of balls between 0 and 10 degrees - just missing low, and a good amount between 25 and 30 - just missing high.

This actually gives him an elevated opportunity to fall into the optimal range, since he wasn't just a guy having trouble with ground balls or pop-ups, he was doing a bit of both. It wouldn't take a huge change/adjustment for him to hit a lot more balls in that 15-30 degree range, so this is an exciting profile.

The most exciting thing is the contact rate Pasquantino has. His 84.7% contact rate ranked 17th-best in the league. If we filter it to hitters with at least an 8% barrel rate (league average), he was first in the league.

In terms of making quality contact at a high rate, Vinnie P is among the league's best already. The sky is the limit for the Royals' first baseman, and his ADP shows that the field is well aware of that.

The risk is low on Pasquantino given that the hard-hit rate and contact rate are very sticky year-to-year, and he's just not going to lose more than a little bit in those two arenas. If he disappoints, it will probably be because he hits too many ground balls and comes up short of 20 homers. I wouldn't expect that to happen, but it's certainly a possibility. And if it does happen, he will most likely disappoint in RBI as well given the weak lineup he anchors.

All things considered, I am very much interested in Pasquantino even at a seemingly fair price.

Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox

Vaughn is a pretty similar case to Pasquantino. A young former top prospect that showed immediate competence in the Majors. He hit .271/.321/.429 with 17 homers in 2022, which was a little bit disappointing since a lot of people (myself included) expected a big step forward after his solid rookie year in 2021.

He actually took a step backward in the launch profile in 2022, regressing from a 90.5 mph velocity and a 9.6° angle to what you see above. If he can go down a couple of points in both in one year, he can certainly go up a couple of points the next year. Vaughn's name shows up on the list above about hard hits per swing, so the guy does tend to make his swings count.

Vaughn's plate discipline is mature beyond his years, and he has done nothing but post strong strikeout and contact rates since debuting at the beginning of last season. Maybe he will just be this GB/LD guy again in 2022, which will leave him short of 20 homers again, but the upside is massive here if he does fall into a more advantageous launch profile. He could certainly be a 30-homer guy while maintaining a batting average above .280 - and that's exciting. It may also help that he'll be getting back to his natural position at first base this year. That may help his batting without the distraction of perfecting his craft playing left field, a tough thing to do.

Joey Bart, San Francisco Giants

Bart is one of these catchers that came up as a top prospect and got some people interested but then failed to show the ability to hit at the Major League level, making his paychecks with defense. What we've seen from Bart so far has largely been a disaster for fantasy purposes (.215/.296/.364 last year), but what we do see is a good amount of hard-hit balls (43% hard-hit rate).

Like most young, unpolished hitters, we see a wide spread on the launch angle histogram:

Not many guys hit this many pop-ups, and he had his share of balls hit between 0 and 10 degrees as well. There's no consistency at all here, but he did hit 64 balls above 95 miles per hour that were either between 5 and 15 degrees or above 35 degrees. Add or subtract 5-10 degrees on those balls and he would have added a handful of more homers to his total in 2022. What Bart did do well was hit dingers at a high rate, clearing the fence 11 times in just 291 PA, good for a decent 26.5 PA/HR. He isn't going to give you batting average or steals, but Bart could be a guy who surprises us with a 25-homer season in 2023.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks

Taking a different path here with a veteran rather than another young budding prospect. Gurriel had a strange year in 2022, hitting just five homers in 492 plate appearances. Not that he's ever been a huge power hitter, but he hit 20 homers in 2019 and 21 in 2021, so this was a huge drop.

The weird thing is that nothing else in the profile changed much from those 2019-2021 marks:

• Lowered his K% by two points
• Raised his Contact% by three points
• Raised his launch angle by almost a full degree
• Raised his exit velocity by two miles per hour
• Lost 16 homers

Those things don't mesh. His launch profile definitely doesn't show us a guy who can hit 30 homers, but man it sure makes us think he should have hit 15-25 of those bad boys and not just five.

I can't think of anything to explain this rather than just dumb [bad] luck. Gurriel is on the Diamondbacks now, and they are loaded with young talent in the outfield, which casts some doubt on his playing time. However, I feel confident saying that Gurriel would get back close to 20 homers in 2023 if given 500+ PAs again - and that makes him an excellent buy in drafts this year.

This was a long one! I hope it helps, thanks for reading!

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