Finding Fantasy Baseball Hitters Set to Turn it Around Using Expected Stats

Ryan Kirksey identifies hitters who are set to turn it around for fantasy baseball using advanced sabermetrics wOBA and xwOBA. Hitter regression candidates for the rest of 2024.

Even though the fantasy baseball season is only three weeks old, some hitter trends are worth analyzing to determine whether slow starts (or fast starts) are facts or flukes. One of the best ways to do that is to use the Statcast data provided by Baseball Savant to compare expected statistics to actual statistics through a player's plate appearances so far.

The most comprehensive statistic that has both actual and expected numbers is Weighted On Base Average (wOBA). What is wOBA? Simply put, it is a measurement of whether or not a player reaches base and how valuable that opportunity is. A double is worth more than a single, and a double with a man on base is more valuable than a double with no men on, etc. The wOBA stat is designed to mimic a traditional on-base scale (i.e. anything over .400 would be considered elite; below .300 would be quite bad).

Based on what we know through three weeks, which big-game fantasy hitters lead the list of positive regression candidates based on their expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and their actual wOBA? Four names stand out above the rest. The full list of league leaders in this category can be found on Baseball Savant.

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Hitters Who Are Set to Turn it Around the Rest of 2024

Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets

wOBA - .232
xwOBA - .340
Difference - (-0.108, third most among hitters)

The same standing ovation strategy that worked to fix Trea Turner's cold start in 2023 hasn't helped Francisco Lindor just yet. He is slashing .145/.259/.217 to start the year with one home run and two RBI. Lindor's ground-ball rate (41%) is seven percentage points higher than it was in 2023 and his barrel rate has fallen from 10.4% to 3.3%.

However, there are several encouraging signs that Lindor should be more league average instead of replacement level in 2024. His 11% strikeout rate is the best of his career, as is his 11% walk rate. He is seeing the ball well, but getting unlucky when he hits it. His .150 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is 140 points below his career average and ranks 186th out of 188 eligible batters.

Francisco Lindor is objectively one of the leagues MOST unlucky hitters so far in 2024.

BA: .152
xBA: .283
Difference: -.131 (2nd in MLB)

SLG: .227
xSLG: .404
Difference: -0.177 (8th in MLB)

wOBA: .235
xwOBA: .347
Difference: -0.112 (3rd in MLB)

With time 📈📈📈

— Michael Marino (@MarinoMLB) April 16, 2024

Lindor might be the unluckiest hitter so far in 2024, which just means there is plenty of room to improve over the next five-and-a-half months of the season. Lindor started very slow in 2021 as well but still finished with a .322 OBP to go along with 20 home runs and 10 steals. When Lindor's batted balls start falling in for hits, the counting stats and the rates will all start moving up quickly.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

wOBA - .226
xwOBA - .328
Difference - (-0.102, Fifth)

When Christian Encarnacion-Strand (better known as CES) arrived in the majors last season, it was with several known skill sets. First, he is a prodigious power hitter. He blasted 20 home runs in just 67 AAA games last year and then 13 more in 63 Major League Baseball games (a 34-home-run pace over a full season). Once he got past A-ball, he never had a strikeout rate over 25% or a slugging percentage below .520.

In his second year with the Reds, the hope was CES would take the next step up as a 24-year-old, but that hasn't happened through 17 games. His strikeout rate is about to touch 28% and his walk rate languishes under 2% right now. He is hitting .192/197/.329 with only two home runs and 14 total hits. His 34 wRC+ is the seventh-worst mark in the league.

But xwOBA tells the story that a massive breakout might be coming soon. CES's barrel rate (11.1%) is actually higher than in 2023 (10%), and his max exit velocity (113.3 mph) is also higher than a year ago (111.8 mph). His launch angle and hard-hit rate are identical, so it's a situation where his home runs per fly ball have been unlucky. In every stop of professional ball, that number was above 20%. This year, it's right around 10%, meaning some course correction is on the way.

Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros

wOBA: .387
xwOBA - .487
Difference - (-0.100, Sixth)

It's strange to look at a player who is hitting .282/.386/.493 and think about how much room they may have for improvement, but that just speaks to what an outlier, other-worldly hitter Yordan Alvarez is right now. His .387 (as of Tuesday's games) currently ranks 47th among all qualified hitters, but his .487 xwOBA is third behind only Ryan O'Hearn and Bobby Witt Jr.

Alvarez's four home runs and 12 RBI (plus a 12% walk rate) are par for the course for Alvarez, but the statistics show he has actually been unlucky and could be so much better the rest of the way. His expected batting average (.344) is much better than his actual (.282 through Tuesday) and Alvarez already ranks better than the 90th percentile in every hard-hit measurement Major League Baseball tracks.

(Literally, as I typed this last paragraph he hit his fifth home run of the year on Wednesday.)

Yordan Alvarez ... into orbit! 🛰️ pic.twitter.com/wlGbLAIFzw

— MLB (@MLB) April 17, 2024

Part of the start for Alvarez is with the unlucky beginning of the season for the Houston Astros offense overall. On the year, the Astros rank fourth in team wOBA (.342 behind only Atlanta, Milwaukee, and the L.A. Dodgers). However, they are only 14th in runs scored. Something doesn't add up and this entire offense, including Alvarez, is about to take off.

Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

wOBA - .238
xwOBA - .324
Difference - (-0.086, 14th)

Three straight seasons of at least 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and at least 69 RBI from 2021-2023 vaulted Randy Arozarena to superstar status, especially in fantasy circles. This year, while he is contributing a little bit everywhere (two home runs, nine runs, three steals), his overall batting line is putrid and looks nothing like the average .260/.340/.440 line we have seen over the past three years.

So far in 2024, Arozarena is hitting .169/.239/.277 with a .239 wOBA -- the lowest of his career by more than 100 points. Arozarena's case is another one that can clearly be chalked up to bad luck, meaning if you can trade for him for pennies on the dollar, that's something you should pull the trigger on immediately. Just about every under-the-hood number for Arozarena screams positive regression is coming.

His BABIP is .200 right now, and it is .326 for his career. His pull rate (where he gets a lot of his power) is 31%, and it's 40.4% for his career. Arozarena's hard-hit rate in 2024 (46.8%) is higher than his career average (43.6%), so the right kind of contact is happening. Things will turn around for the Tampa Bay slugger, and it will happen in a big way when it does.

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