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The comedian Lewis Black has a fantastic bit about the dumbest thing he’s ever heard in his life. After relaying the thing in question, he cautions the audience, “Don’t think about that sentence for more than three minutes, or blood will shoot out your nose.” This is more or less how it felt trying to make heads or tails of 2017’s weird and wild first month and produce updated rankings. It’s why, unlike my esteemed colleague Nick Mariano, I went only 300 players deep as opposed to 500. Had I pressed on, it might have broken my brain.
All of which is to say, if you disagree strongly with any particular ranking, know that there’s a decent chance you could talk me into adjusting mine. The sheer number of injuries and surprise performances (in both directions) made putting this update together a stiff challenge. Over the next week, Nick and I will look at each position individually and try to suss out the way forward. He kicked things off with catcher yesterday, so today we’re covering first base.
You can find our full, updated rankings here. Note that they’re based on a standard 12-teamer, so you should make adjustment based on your specific league settings. Tiers, auction values, prospects, news and more. It's all free.
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2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Base (May Updates)
| Ranking | Tier | Player | Position | Kyle | Nick | Composite |
| 1 | 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | Anthony Rizzo | 1B | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| 3 | 2 | Miguel Cabrera | 1B | 13 | 16 | 14.5 |
| 4 | 2 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | 21 | 12 | 16.5 |
| 5 | 3 | Joey Votto | 1B | 16 | 24 | 20 |
| 6 | 3 | Eric Thames | 1B | 31 | 33 | 32 |
| 7 | 4 | Wil Myers | 1B | 59 | 36 | 47.5 |
| 8 | 4 | Hanley Ramirez | 1B | 51 | 60 | 55.5 |
| 9 | 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | 1B | 69 | 49 | 59 |
| 10 | 4 | Matt Carpenter | 1B/2B/3B | 47 | 75 | 61 |
| 11 | 4 | Chris Davis | 1B | 52 | 98 | 75 |
| 12 | 4 | Jose Abreu | 1B | 95 | 57 | 76 |
| 13 | 5 | Carlos Santana | 1B | 106 | 111 | 108.5 |
| 14 | 5 | Albert Pujols | 1B | 116 | 115 | 115.5 |
| 15 | 5 | Ryan Zimmerman | 1B | 182 | 56 | 119 |
| 16 | 5 | Matt Holliday | 1B/OF | 173 | 124 | 148.5 |
| 17 | 5 | Victor Martinez | 1B | 191 | 139 | 165 |
| 18 | 5 | Travis Shaw | 1B/3B | 193 | 150 | 171.5 |
| 19 | 5 | Kendrys Morales | 1B | 256 | 102 | 179 |
| 20 | 5 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | 174 | 193 | 183.5 |
| 21 | 6 | Adrian Gonzalez | 1B | 164 | 215 | 189.5 |
| 22 | 6 | Greg Bird | 1B | 176 | 208 | 192 |
| 23 | 6 | Brandon Belt | 1B | 209 | 186 | 197.5 |
| 24 | 6 | Justin Bour | 1B | 208 | 257 | 232.5 |
| 25 | 6 | Mike Napoli | 1B | 233 | 245 | 239 |
| 26 | 6 | Tommy Joseph | 1B | #N/A | 240 | 240 |
| 27 | 6 | Mitch Moreland | 1B | 251 | 230 | 240.5 |
| 28 | 6 | Joshua Bell | 1B/OF | 266 | #N/A | 266 |
| 29 | 7 | Lucas Duda | 1B | #N/A | 268 | 268 |
| 30 | 7 | C.J. Cron | 1B | #N/A | 269 | 269 |
| 31 | 7 | David Freese | 1B/3B | #N/A | 316 | 316 |
| 32 | 7 | Justin Smoak | 1B | #N/A | 327 | 327 |
| 33 | 7 | Joe Mauer | 1B | #N/A | 347 | 347 |
| 34 | 7 | Logan Morrison | 1B | #N/A | 359 | 359 |
| 35 | 7 | Chris Carter | 1B | #N/A | 368 | 368 |
| 36 | 7 | Steve Pearce | 1B/2B/OF | #N/A | 371 | 371 |
| 37 | 7 | Adam Lind | 1B | #N/A | 373 | 373 |
| 38 | 7 | Danny Valencia | 1B/3B/OF | #N/A | 374 | 374 |
| 39 | 7 | Kennys Vargas | 1B | #N/A | 384 | 384 |
| 40 | 7 | A.J. Reed | 1B | #N/A | 386 | 386 |
| 41 | 7 | Matt Adams | 1B | #N/A | 393 | 393 |
| 42 | 7 | Byung-ho Park | 1B | #N/A | 394 | 394 |
| 43 | 7 | Wilmer Flores | 1B/3B | #N/A | 404 | 404 |
| 44 | 7 | Dan Vogelbach | 1B | #N/A | 420 | 420 |
| 45 | 7 | Tyler Austin | 1B | #N/A | 426 | 426 |
| 46 | 7 | Luis Valbuena | 1B/3B | #N/A | 431 | 431 |
| 47 | 7 | Jefry Marte | 1B/OF | #N/A | 449 | 449 |
First Base Rankings Analysis: May
The top five at this position are all familiar names, a blessed oasis of continuity in a bizarre opening to the year. One of the biggest stories of the young season, of course, has been the play of the guy ranked sixth. Eric Thames has blown away his optimistic preseason projections, slashing an absurd .331/.436/.737 with 13 home runs and 58 R+RBI in 33 games. Any concerns about Thames needing to adjust to MLB after spending the last few seasons in Korea have been as obliterated as the baseballs he’s routinely sent into orbit. Some regression is inevitable, but there’s little doubt that he’s for real.
I was more lukewarm on Wil Myers than most coming into the year, and I haven’t budged much. The results have certainly been there – he’s hit .299 with eight homers, 43 R+RBI, and three steals so far – but the process gives me pause. Myers’ swinging strike and pop-up rates have spiked while his walk rate has cratered, and he’s not running as much as he did last season. There’s also the fact that due to injury, he’s only played more than 88 games in a season once. That was last season, when he faded badly down the stretch.
In hindsight, I should have given Ryan Zimmerman a much larger boost in the rankings. He’s been even more productive than Thames, after all. On the other hand, that success is built on completely unsustainable marks in BABIP and HR/FB%. And like Myers, he’s played sparingly over the last few years due to myriad physical ailments. Nick’s totally bought in; I remain more reluctant, prior admission notwithstanding.
Given another crack at this, it’s likely that I would revise downward on a couple of struggling veterans – Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez. It’s important not to overreact to one bad month, especially since we’ve seen both players get off to slow starts before. But they’re both entering the twilight of their careers, and dealing with the kind of chronic injuries that can hasten one’s end.
As Nick mentioned yesterday, we compiled these rankings around the end of April. I stuck to my guns with my optimistic preseason valuation on Matt Carpenter, and he’s rewarded that faith by hitting .323/.523/.806 with four homers so far in May. Carp was having a stellar season in 2016 before an oblique injury sapped his power, and looks well on his way to a repeat performance.
A few quick hits to close things out:
- I remain relatively pessimistic about Edwin Encarnacion. He’s striking out a ton and not elevating the ball as much as he once did.
- Is this finally the end for Victor Martinez? Probably not, but one homer in 31 games merits some concern.
- You can go ahead and flip my rankings of Eric Hosmer and Travis Shaw.
- Don’t give up on, or forget about, Greg Bird.
